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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #24,041
  • Jul 12, 2019 8:36am Jul 12, 2019 8:36am
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...exist-practice

A new scientific study could bust wide open deeply flawed fundamental assumptions underlying controversial climate legislation and initiatives such as the Green New Deal, namely, the degree to which 'climate change' is driven by natural phenomena vs. man-made issues measured as carbon footprint. Scientists in Finland found "practically no anthropogenic [man-made] climate change" after a series of studies.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

I have ever wondered, how people can assign the earth warming nearly exclusively to CO2 level, when water-vapor/clouds may in fact the far more severe factors for earth warming (and can not be altered by earthlings in a meaningful way)
  • #24,042
  • Jul 18, 2019 6:42am Jul 18, 2019 6:42am
"Wipe The Soviet Union Off The Map" - Planned US Nuclear Attack Against USSR


2017 I read about that, but unfortunately I lost the link to the source.

Am really thankful to Zerohedge for digging it out again.
  • #24,043
  • Jul 25, 2019 11:51am Jul 25, 2019 11:51am
EURUSD daily

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  • #24,044
  • Jul 25, 2019 11:53am Jul 25, 2019 11:53am
EURUSD daily

Sentiment

% bulls
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  • #24,045
  • Jul 25, 2019 11:56am Jul 25, 2019 11:56am
Quoting infinitus
EURUSD daily Sentiment % bulls {image}
I like what I see Been saying something like this for quite some time, all-timestamped.. for example or in my "Auric forecasts" thread...
The difference - to others is that I have been saying this consistently for more than a month.. while others changed or said DUAL scenario, so they were "right" either way
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #24,046
  • Jul 25, 2019 11:56am Jul 25, 2019 11:56am
one of a few scenarios

EURUSD 2 daily TF

wave C of 5 of C may already be done, but can extend further down a bit
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #24,047
  • Jul 25, 2019 12:07pm Jul 25, 2019 12:07pm
Quoting infinitus
one of a few scenarios EURUSD 2 daily TF wave C of 5 of C may already be done, but can extend further down a bit {image}
I estimated 300-1200PIPS down... since about middle of JUL till midd of OCT... Would you say that would be plausible? Pretty linear though... hope the BULLs will keep their promises... instead of just being BULL-shit talk Need them to slow the decline, to shave the profits slowly but surely without much drama...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #24,048
  • Jul 25, 2019 12:15pm Jul 25, 2019 12:15pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} I estimated 300-1200PIPS down... since about middle of JUL till midd of OCT... Would you say that would be plausible? Pretty linear though... hope the BULLs will keep their promises... instead of just being BULL-shit talk Need them to slow the decline, to shave the profits slowly but surely without much drama...

Yes, of course, it can be done.

The following chart (2 daily TF) is from my main count. If we do go down from here, it will get ugly for the bulls.
But my feeling is, that the blue wave C (up) is not finished yet.

Keep in mind: the daily sentiment Index does only show 14% bulls left. So the trade is very crowded already.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #24,049
  • Edited 1:08pm Jul 25, 2019 12:21pm | Edited 1:08pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Yes, of course, it can be done. The following chart (2 daily TF) is from my main count. If we do go down from here, it will get ugly for the bulls. But my feeling is, that the blue wave C (up) is not finished yet. Keep in mind: the daily sentiment Index does only show 14% bulls left. So the trade is very crowded already. {image}
Tnx man, appreciated the reply... Was afraid of ban/ignore.. since some OP do not have MONEY/PROFIT (or prediction quality, win-rate etc...) as top priority... that they should if they really want to survive or make it in this racket... It is hard as it is... let alone paying/pricing-in the ego (costliest thing it the world... almost... Ok glad to have that timestamped... As of next week, I will start to increase my trade sizes.. betting on the pretty linear downtrend.. yeah, the inner game is at which point to enter the (daily) positions to maximize out of this... much more than simple SHORT and wait for 2-3months Much prefer to trade around that assumed line

Again, appreciated for the input... I just love to post/re-affirm when others are against.. not so at the moment maybe, since many shifted their believes now that ECB revealed their real intentions (also some people have obssesion with "buying the dips"... so they might return to that agenda soon, helping slow the downtrend)... among other things.. Not saying this ECB or FED situation is the main reason (for the downtrend), but doesn't help the decline either

I love to "predict" at times when everyone saying otherwise (been doing it for 10+ years... later decided to timestamp them on FF), re-affirm the positions and quote them later in retrospect Ok so the TREND is possible...
the question now is how to HARVEST it best, if assumed to be right... ideas welcome... have my harvest strategy/ies.. but am always open for new ones..That is why I posted this in the first place... in many posts, threads

So assuming the pretty linear downtrend till lets say end of OCT... how would you harvest it best? Could PM me also, anyone of course...

BTW will publish how I think/estimate it should go.. in the next hour.. if anyone is interested..
EDIT: was pretty clear in the text, since rather linear downtrend and estimated change, no need to post chart so not to flood the thread for no reason.. and there wasnt any interest either, it seems...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #24,050
  • Jul 25, 2019 1:26pm Jul 25, 2019 1:26pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Tnx man, appreciated the reply... Was afraid of ban/ignore.. since some OP do not have MONEY/PROFIT (or prediction quality, win-rate etc...) as top priority... that they should if they really want to survive or make it in this racket... It is hard as it is... let alone paying/pricing-in the ego (costliest thing it the world... almost... Ok glad to have that timestamped... As of next week, I will start to increase my trade sizes.. betting on the pretty linear downtrend.. yeah, the inner game is at which point to enter the (daily) positions...

Why should I ban you or ignore you? :-)


One has to keep in mind, that the situation in EURUSD is somewhat murkey in the moment / for some time. With this being said high probability trades are hard to find.

Harvesting strategies depend vastly on how big your pockets are, how much loss you can swallow, and how much leverage you use (account size divided with position size).

Overall best idea seems to be to build positions around S/R levels, watching the price action, watching channels and other lines.

There are many methods - one simply has to pick the favoured one and stick to it with due money management.

Most of the time I do trade intermediate to long term positions. But with the situation in EURUSD not very clear for me my entries and exits are more shorter term. So I have to trade more often, unfortunately.

A very good long term short would have been for me with an entry between roughly 1.14 to 1.1700

Since I am mainly Elliott Wave trader mixed with sentiment data, the entry levels get clearer when the moves develop.

My positions are now long with entries @1.1128 @1.133 and @1.1146 (that one was the first position I took and it was a bit premature)
  • #24,051
  • Edited 3:30pm Jul 25, 2019 1:39pm | Edited 3:30pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Why should I ban you or ignore you? :-) One has to keep in mind, that the situation in EURUSD is somewhat murkey in the moment / for some time. With this being said high probability trades are hard to find. Harvesting strategies depend vastly on how big your pockets are, how much loss you can swallow, and how much leverage you use (account size divided with position size). Overall best idea seems to be to build positions around S/R levels, watching the price action, watching channels and other lines. There are many methods - one simply has...
Well I have a slight bad taste in my mouth since one guru banned me... even though everything I posted.. happened.. maybe because of it Wont go into this further, just saying I was really dissapointed that some people do not know "why are we here" (in this racket - to make money? very simple but some gets lost in other objectives)... Ego, likes/dislikes.. love/hate.. or even emotions in general... are basically irrelevant, for good traders (when trading) anyways

I do agree with you on great portion, except I am not familiar much with Elliott apart of that one (Elliot) that I would imitate should I be proven correct...
Well... I am somewhat "forced" to make daily trades (too)... counting trend-in... for two reasons... because I want to harvest it more with trading than just simple short.. even though the last (predicted) month would throw 200pips+... if you see my previous timestamped posts... but that is not that much (compared to what I would "need")... With good trading, much more can be harvested.... at least that is how it seems now.. And the other reason is the same almost... Since I do not have (investment)BANK size position.. I must roll the (little)snow-ball many many times to get to the SnowMan... instead of just shaving good absolutes of the big ball

Your thread stimulated me to made a little graphical projection... endpoint might go up and down... depending on the ecb/fed charade next week.. but I think could follow that line sooner or later... the worst it can do, judging by the past outcome vs projection.. is to DELAY the decline.. for some time... but I think not this time... the bulls are exhausted as f... already... but would be glad for them to have enough energy to counter the too-fast decline.. so that it will deflate slowly... meaning... epic profits to be made.. with TIGHT leverage... u know what Im saying...

Could you cross-check/overlap (attached chart) with your closest projection (of yours) please...
Counted-in the (last) supper for the bulls before the 3m (about 200PIP slide )..; 1.1200->1.1000; 29JUL19-25OCT19.
Others can quote me afterwards... at the end of OCT, lets say 25OCT19, endmarket time when it might be 1.1000 at market close.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #24,052
  • Jul 25, 2019 2:19pm Jul 25, 2019 2:19pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Well I have a slight bad taste in my mouth since one guru banned me... even though everything I posted.. happened.. maybe because of it Wont go into this further, just saying I was really dissapointed that some people do not know "why are we here"... Ego, likes/dislikes.. love/hate.. are basically irrelevant, for good traders anyways I do agree with you on great portion, except I am not familiar much with Elliott apart of that one (Elliot) that I would imitate should...

ROFL for the Eliot

Elliott Wave is all about sentiment/socioeconomis.

As Elliotticans we belief, that market movements are a reflection of collective mood in the markets.
Changes in mood can be seen on smallest TF first and is set forth to higher TF.

Social Mood can change anytime, and it does not need an extrinsic factor to change.

So the Elliott Waves (the counts) are only best guesses of high probability setups.

A sudden change in mood can render your count moot in minutes, even when the count was "valid" for months or years.

But Elliott Wave makes is fairly easy to know when one is most likely wrong.


The following chart is my very long term count of EURUSD. I call it the eternal triangle. Due to a technical glitch I can only show it for the last 15 years.
With this count parity should be achievable, at least.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The next one is a variant of the eternal triangle concept. The difference is, that the move from the last 1.25 top can evolve as impulse and not ABC move
Target may literally the same - something around parity

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The next one is a fairly bullish alternative. Targets would be in the 1.25 to, more likely 1.33 to 1.47 range

It is my alternative count. Risk/Reward is not bad here for a long term trade

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #24,053
  • Edited 3:20pm Jul 25, 2019 2:27pm | Edited 3:20pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} ROFL for the Eliot Elliott Wave is all about sentiment/socioeconomis. As Elliotticans we belief, that market movements are a reflection of collective mood in the markets. Changes in mood can be seen on smallest TF first and is set forth to higher TF. Social Mood can change anytime, and it does not need an extrinsic factor to change. So the Elliott Waves (the counts) are only best guesses of high probability setups. A sudden change in mood can render your count moot in minutes, even when the count was "valid" for months or years. But Elliott...
Tnx, I just edited my last post (I also replaced the "Elliot" clip/link with some more quality one), uploaded the final chart predicting to be around 1.10 by at lets say market close on 25OCT19... What would Elliot Wave say (probability wise) say about that, reasonable plausible?

EDIT: corrected the prediction from PAIR to 1.1000... I put the wrong assumptions in the calculations.. so EURUSD at 1.1000 till/on 25OCT19...
About 200PIP drop from 29JUL19-25OCT19. The closer around 1.1000 on that day, the cleaner the model/forecast is/was.
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #24,054
  • Jul 25, 2019 2:42pm Jul 25, 2019 2:42pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Tnx, I just edited my last post (I also replaced the "Elliot" clip/link with some more quality one), uploaded the final chart predicting to be around PAIR by at lets say market close on 25OCT19... What would Elliot Wave say (probability wise) say about that, reasonable plausible? EDIT: omg, made huge error, brb

EW is not so good at time, better on price

When we are going down from the 1.25 high in ABC fashion, than C is most of the time between 50% and 300% of wave A time wise

So from probability view Oct 2019 would be around the 50% mark, so it would be possible, but probability calls for longer

The core of the duration seems to be between 100 and 200% of A, that would give you Apr to Dez 2020
  • #24,055
  • Jul 25, 2019 2:54pm Jul 25, 2019 2:54pm
[quote=auricforecas;12403924]{quote} Well I have a slight bad taste in my mouth since one guru banned me... even though everything I posted.. happened.. maybe because of it Wont go into this further, just saying I was really dissapointed that some people do not know "why are we here" (in this racket - to make money? very simple but some gets lost in other objectives
Oh sorry, only now I noticed, that your target area is only around 1.10

As I said before, the EURUSD movements do not show very clear pattern at the moment.

We can not rule out, that we might drift slightly lower over the course of the next few months. But I think we would then reach your target area most likely in August, when you do not allow for a week long sideways/upways movement.

For me it looks like the ABC downward movement is finished, or we are in wave 4 of wave C

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #24,056
  • Edited 3:58pm Jul 25, 2019 3:25pm | Edited 3:58pm
Quoting infinitus
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Well I have a slight bad taste in my mouth since one guru banned me... even though everything I posted.. happened.. maybe because of it Wont go into this further, just saying I was really dissapointed that some people do not know "why are we here" (in this racket - to make money? very simple but some gets lost in other objectives Oh sorry, only now I noticed, that your target area is only around 1.10 As I said before, the EURUSD movements do not show very clear pattern at the moment. We can not
...
Yeah, realised the mistake, corrected the previous posts... Yeah, 1.1000 seems to be the target (from about (up to) 1.1200 on 29JUL19) to 25OCT19... So awe are talking about 200PIP drop... So yeah, rather slowly... but I rechecked, re-tested... just now... and this drop should be good enough for REAL trading.. not just SHORT and wait.. But this trend, if right... and put in the assumptions, could help us blowing wind in our backs... Yeah very good traders can run/trade against the wind also, but it does help, at least to me, judging from the past trading data at least

So, what would you say about PRICE this price drop... plausible within the period... if you can somewhat estimate...
And on top of that, how "clean" do you think the drop might be... I would say that it should be clean... "just" 200PIP for 3months... but without much drama (spikes, bounces, swings etc...)...

BTW I saw you already replied above in the meantime Maybe some refinements, additional info?

P.S. I also play with market close predictions... had predicted it many time within about 20PIPS.. even 10PIP.. But that is only good for examining the quality of the model/prediction.. but also.. assumed correct, could trade around that... or around asymptotes.. that I also played predicting many times
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #24,057
  • Jul 25, 2019 3:44pm Jul 25, 2019 3:44pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote}{quote} Yeah, realised the mistake, corrected the previous posts... Yeah, 1.1000 seems to be the target from 29JUL19 to 25OCT19... So awe are talking about 200PIP drop... So yeah, rather slowly... but I rechecked, re-tested... just now... and this drop should be good enough for REAL trading.. not just SHORT and wait.. But this trend, if right... and put in the assumptions, could help us blowing wind in our backs... Yeah very good traders can run/trade against the wind also, but it does help, at least to me, judging from the past trading data...

OK, we assume that we are in that scenario I showed in the last chart. Further we do assume, that we are in wave 4 of wave C

This wave 4 may evolve as a somewhat longer sideways/triangle formation, because the corresponding wave 2 was short and shallow.
So it may produce some ups and downs from here in the 1100 to 1200 range.
After that impulse down or choppy ending diagonal. We can not know now. Look far to the left side of your chart (2015 / 2016) and you will see the mess LOL
  • #24,058
  • Edited 4:02pm Jul 25, 2019 3:45pm | Edited 4:02pm
Quoting infinitus
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Well I have a slight bad taste in my mouth since one guru banned me... even though everything I posted.. happened.. maybe because of it Wont go into this further, just saying I was really dissapointed that some people do not know "why are we here" (in this racket - to make money? very simple but some gets lost in other objectives Oh sorry, only now I noticed, that your target area is only around 1.10 As I said before, the EURUSD movements do not show very clear pattern at the moment. We can not
...
Using your chart, I draw mine forecast Would you think it would be possible to cross-check with Elliot this way?
I assumed some rebounce till up to 1.1200 (till morning - 29jul19) before start smooth slide till 25oct19...)... But would have no problem if it slides from current price...
So here it is attached, when the end-price is obviously more important... if it matches the elliot... Would have no problem to be even lower... Am interested on how linear can we expect it to be, really hate this spikes etc....

EDIT: I think you pretty much already answered to me Just in case you see something else, now that I somewhat overlapped my prediction on your charts... would be welcomed
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_Daily_snapshot.png Size: 96 KB
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #24,059
  • Jul 26, 2019 11:14am Jul 26, 2019 11:14am
Are the price patterns of the Dollar Index and EURUSD nearly finished ?
Both counts show Ending Diagonals in the final stage.

Sixer
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  • #24,060
  • Jul 26, 2019 1:11pm Jul 26, 2019 1:11pm
Quoting Sixer
Are the price patterns of the Dollar Index and EURUSD nearly finished ? Both counts show Ending Diagonals in the final stage. Sixer {image} {image}
We have to deal with max. uncertainty, unfortunately.

Both counts are prone to multiple interpretations

Here is one bullish variant for the Dollar Index

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