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The Paradox System

  • #16,281
  • Jul 16, 2019 5:17am Jul 16, 2019 5:17am
Quoting Sinai
DAILY PLAN – 15/07/19: NEWS: No Red News H1: ROMAR - Resistance EMA - Support PSAR - Support FIBO - UP Notes: Riders are in an uptrend but ROMAR is strugling to get under Purple. BB are closing in. H2: ROMAR - Resistance EMA - Resistance PSAR - Resistance Check List: Last MACD crossing - UP Last EMA Alert Arrow - UP Fibo - UP Notes: Uptrend with last arrow sequence correct. DB is down with dicvergence and SAR attached up. EMA is close to cross Purple. H4: ROMAR - Resistance EMA - Resistance PSAR - Resistance Check List: Fibo - UP Notes: We are in...
SL hit.
Got caught by a breakout of a ranging situation where the main trend was down and i was buying.
Exactly what Mr. Dove warn against. Mea culpa.

Best regards,
Hugo
  • #16,282
  • Jul 16, 2019 5:55am Jul 16, 2019 5:55am
Quoting humlux
Long the market at 121.555 Reason for Trade: Purple at white for the crossing, H2 green fibo and open above smooth after touch of H2 fibo and H4 fibo flip to green. {image}
Stop Loss hit -40 pips. The daily parabolic which did not flip with purple at ema is the reason for this failure. Must see the whole picture.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYH2 7.16.19 exit sl.png Size: 63 KB
candy is dandy but liquor is quicker
  • #16,283
  • Jul 21, 2019 4:41pm Jul 21, 2019 4:41pm
EURJPY Date: 22/07/19
News: JPY speech at 4pm GMT.

Daily:
ROMAR: Resistance
EMA: Resistance
PSAR: Resistance

Notes: Romar downtrend, 4hm down. Fibo flipped up, macd down. BB’s wide open. Db attached at the low 120.769 with lime tag and standard div.

4HR:

ROMAR: Resistance
EMA: Resistance
PSAR: Resistance

Notes: Romar downtrend, with a current smooth slider back down into a double bottom. Fibo flipped up with a sar connection at 0.0 fibo support. BB’s open and trending down.

2HR:
Opening Price: 120.800
ROMAR: Resistance
EMA: Resistance
PSAR: Resistance
Notes: Romar downtrend, with BB’s opening up. Macd down. 4hm turned down. Fibo up with db/sar attached at the low with standard div. Currently Fibo is holding as support, with the 4hm as resistance.

1HR:

ROMAR: Resistance
EMA: Resistance
PSAR: Resistance


Notes: romar downtrend, with a smooth slider back into downtrend. Fibo still down, and consolidating between purple resistance and fibo support.

Final Notes: we are in a romar downtrend on all charts. With a flip of the fibo putting us in consolidation, with all charts pointing down, the trend could easily continue. At the moment there is no entry up or down, with no indication of a swing up.

Projected Entry:Based on the downtrend on all charts, I will look to short at h2 resistance, with a retrace. Unless something changes.
  • #16,284
  • Jul 21, 2019 7:33pm Jul 21, 2019 7:33pm
NEWS
No red news for Tokyo session
DAILY CHART - DATE: 22 July 2019
ROMAR: Resistance
EMA: Resistance
Parabolic: Resistance
Check List:
Last MACD 0 Crossing Down
Last EMA Alert Arrow Down
Last DB Attachment Low
Fibo up or down Up
NOTES:
ROMAR, EMA, PSAR and 4HM downtrend, Market at White


4 HOUR CHART:

ROMAR: Resistance
EMA: Resistance
Parabolic: Resistance
Check List:
Last MACD 0 Crossing Down
Last EMA Alert Arrow Down
Last DB Attachment Low
Fibo up or down Up
NOTES:
ROMAR, EMA,PSAR and 4 HM Downtrend,

2 HOUR CHART:

Opening Price: 120.850
ROMAR: Resistance
EMA: Resistance
Parabolic: Resistance
Check List:
Last MACD 0 Crossing Down
Last EMA Alert Arrow Down
Last DB Attachment Low
Fibo up or down Up
NOTES:
Downtrend but White crossing Purple and appearance of double bottom



1 HOUR CHART:

ROMAR: Resistance
EMA: Resistance
Parabolic: Resistance
Check List:
Last MACD 0 Crossing Up
Last EMA Alert Arrow Up
Last DB Attachment N/A
Fibo up or down Up
NOTES:
Purple between White and Smooth and sliding


NOTES (All four charts):
Trading Chart (Trend, Swing, Consolidation)
Fibo up on all charts, ROMAR and EMA downtrend on all charts
Double bottom on H2
Market appears to be consolidating.

Entry:


Downtrend weakening and resistance negates going long.
Wait for market to declare itself.
  • #16,285
  • Jul 21, 2019 8:11pm Jul 21, 2019 8:11pm
Quoting SuchParadox
EURJPY Date: 22/07/19 News: JPY speech at 4pm GMT. Daily: ROMAR: Resistance EMA: Resistance PSAR: Resistance Notes: Romar downtrend, 4hm down. Fibo flipped up, macd down. BB’s wide open. Db attached at the low 120.769 with lime tag and standard div. 4HR: ROMAR: Resistance EMA: Resistance PSAR: Resistance Notes: Romar downtrend, with a current smooth slider back down into a double bottom. Fibo flipped up with a sar connection at 0.0 fibo support. BB’s open and trending down. 2HR: Opening Price: 120.800 ROMAR: Resistance EMA: Resistance PSAR: Resistance...
Entry: With market beginning to show the conditions of a swing up. I entered long at the retrace to smooth on the h2, with the opening above ema, an entry into the future.

Risk is that tp is just above h2 romar resistance but below daily ema.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 112 KB
  • #16,286
  • Jul 22, 2019 7:23pm Jul 22, 2019 7:23pm
NEWS
No high impact news today
DAILY CHART - DATE: 23rd July 2019


ROMAR: Resistance
EMA: Resistance
Parabolic: Resistance
Check List:
Last MACD 0 Crossing Down
Last EMA Alert Arrow Down
Last DB Attachment Low
Fibo up or down Up
NOTES:
Market has bounced off 0.0 Fib for las 3 days


4 HOUR CHART:

ROMAR: Resistance
EMA: Resistance
Parabolic: Support
Check List:
Last MACD 0 Crossing Up
Last EMA Alert Arrow
Last DB Attachment Low
Fibo up or down Up
NOTES: Market ranging above and below EMA



2 HOUR CHART:

Opening Price: 120.923
ROMAR: Resistance
EMA: Resistance
Parabolic: Resistance
Check List:
Last MACD 0 Crossing Down
Last EMA Alert Arrow Down
Last DB Attachment Low
Fibo up or down Down
NOTES: Divergence attached most recent bar. Market ranging above
and below EMA




1 HOUR CHART:

ROMAR: Resistance
EMA: Resistance
Parabolic: Resistance
Check List:
Last MACD 0 Crossing Down
Last EMA Alert Arrow Up
Last DB Attachment N/A
Fibo up or down Down
NOTES: Downtrend with EMA holding resistance



NOTES (All four charts):
Trading Chart (Trend, Swing, Consolidation) Market is in a sideways consolidation.
The amplitude of the ranging is quite tight – BB’s are flat with a
Range of 47 pips. ROMAR is Resistance at the upper BB.
On the daily the market is moving between Smooth and the
0.0 Fib
Entry: No trade at the moment. Wait for a breakout.
  • #16,287
  • Jul 23, 2019 7:13am Jul 23, 2019 7:13am
DAILY PLAN – 23/07/19:
NEWS:
No Red News

H1:
ROMAR - Resistance
EMA - Resistance
PSAR - Resistance
FIBO - DOWN
Notes:
Riders are in an downtrend after hits on ROMAR
BB are opening.

H2:
ROMAR - Resistance
EMA - Resistance
PSAR - Resistance
Check List:
Last MACD crossing - DOWN
Last EMA Alert Arrow - DOWN
Fibo - DOWN
Notes:
White and Smooth crossed Purple on same candle.
DB is attached down with SAR and divergence.

H4:
ROMAR - Resistance
EMA - Resistance
PSAR - Resistance
Check List:
Fibo - DOWN
Notes:
We had several SAR attachments with no DB.
DB is connected DOWN and SAR also down but on different candles.

Daily:
ROMAR - Resistance
EMA - Resistance
PSAR - Resistance
Check List:
Last MACD crossing - DOWN
Last EMA Alert Arrow - DOWN
Fibo - UP
Notes:
We have DB attached down with SAR.
Horsemen are widening.

Final Notes for all three charts:
Market seems to be in sync for a down move.
There is a risk of this being a triple bottom.
Entry:
Sell: Next candle with sync for down move.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot at 2019-07-23 13-59-29.png Size: 45 KB
  • #16,288
  • Jul 23, 2019 5:50pm Jul 23, 2019 5:50pm
NEWS High impact news in 8 hours

DAILY CHART - DATE: 24th July 2019


ROMAR: Resistance
EMA: Resistance
Parabolic: Resistance
Check List:
Last MACD 0 Crossing Down
Last EMA Alert Arrow Down
Last DB Attachment Low
Fibo up or down Up
NOTES: Lower Low with Std and Hidden Divergence attached




4 HOUR CHART:

ROMAR: Resistance
EMA: Resistance
Parabolic: Resistance
Check List:
Last MACD 0 Crossing Down
Last EMA Alert Arrow
Last DB Attachment Low
Fibo up or down Up
NOTES: Market retracing towards 4 HM



2 HOUR CHART:

Opening Price: 120.677
ROMAR: Resistance
EMA: Resistance
Parabolic: Resistance
Check List:
Last MACD 0 Crossing Down
Last EMA Alert Arrow Down
Last DB Attachment Low
Fibo up or down Up
NOTES:




1 HOUR CHART:

ROMAR: Resistance
EMA: Resistance
Parabolic: Resistance
Check List:
Last MACD 0 Crossing Up
Last EMA Alert Arrow Down
Last DB Attachment N/A
Fibo up or down Up
NOTES: 4HM turning up. White at Smooth and both crossed Purple but EMA some distance from purple. Looks like it will be a Slider.



NOTES (All four charts):
Trading Chart (Trend, Swing, Consolidation) Downtrend Ranging.


Entry: Short with MACD down on H1
  • #16,289
  • Edited 9:25pm Jul 23, 2019 9:13pm | Edited 9:25pm
Quoting SuchParadox
{quote} Entry: With market beginning to show the conditions of a swing up. I entered long at the retrace to smooth on the h2, with the opening above ema, an entry into the future. Risk is that tp is just above h2 romar resistance but below daily ema. {image}
From some reason trader - you really love breaking the rules of trading. To start off with this entry was off a trading plan back on the 19th. The rule is a trading plan is good for only 24 hours (after that the plan is obsolete). Next - you opened on a moving candle with 50 minutes left on it. Your entry was against resistance which is also against the rules with counter-trading. You had the Parabolic and ROMAR as a stopper. Then - your trade is a losing trade and no self-evaluation. If you break just one rule then you break them all.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #16,290
  • Jul 23, 2019 9:20pm Jul 23, 2019 9:20pm
Quoting Sinai
DAILY PLAN – 23/07/19: NEWS: No Red News H1: ROMAR - Resistance EMA - Resistance PSAR - Resistance FIBO - DOWN Notes: Riders are in an downtrend after hits on ROMAR BB are opening. H2: ROMAR - Resistance EMA - Resistance PSAR - Resistance Check List: Last MACD crossing - DOWN Last EMA Alert Arrow - DOWN Fibo - DOWN Notes: White and Smooth crossed Purple on same candle. DB is attached down with SAR and divergence. H4: ROMAR - Resistance EMA - Resistance PSAR - Resistance Check List: Fibo - DOWN Notes: We had several SAR attachments with no DB. DB...
You was really late on this trade. You should had pulled the trigger at the Parabolic with EMA in a slider. If you had taken the Parabolic you would had been out of your trade already in profit. In other words - your trade was from center and not off resistance.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #16,291
  • Jul 23, 2019 10:16pm Jul 23, 2019 10:16pm
Entered short with PSAR flip and MACD down on H1. All four charts now in downtrend.
In downtrend, entry off hit on 4 HM
Only 4 hours to high impact news. May have to manually close trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 76 KB
  • #16,292
  • Jul 24, 2019 2:27am Jul 24, 2019 2:27am
Quoting Sinai
DAILY PLAN – 23/07/19: NEWS: No Red News H1: ROMAR - Resistance EMA - Resistance PSAR - Resistance FIBO - DOWN Notes: Riders are in an downtrend after hits on ROMAR BB are opening. H2: ROMAR - Resistance EMA - Resistance PSAR - Resistance Check List: Last MACD crossing - DOWN Last EMA Alert Arrow - DOWN Fibo - DOWN Notes: White and Smooth crossed Purple on same candle. DB is attached down with SAR and divergence. H4: ROMAR - Resistance EMA - Resistance PSAR - Resistance Check List: Fibo - DOWN Notes: We had several SAR attachments with no DB. DB...
Trade lost, closed due to red news.
As Mr. Dove pointed ( https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...3#post12399453 ) i was late into the trade.
There was no space to the FIBO bottom, and i could not see the trade before the fact.
I still need to learn to spot sliders.

Best regards,
Hugo
  • #16,293
  • Jul 24, 2019 3:04am Jul 24, 2019 3:04am
Quoting downunderfx
Entered short with PSAR flip and MACD down on H1. All four charts now in downtrend. In downtrend, entry off hit on 4 HM Only 4 hours to high impact news. May have to manually close trade.{image}
Closed trade 5 mins before high impact news. Trade was a loser.
Apart from recognizing a downtrend most everything else was wrong.
I entered half way through the 2 hour bar (I entered off the 1 hour chart when the PSAR flipped by mistake (must retain greater awareness)).
There was a lot of support just below my entry with all four Fibs green and Lime Green boxes with Standard and Hidden Divergences showing.
The large number of high impact items probably meant the market was going to be cautious during the day leading up to the announcements so a move of 40 pips was unlikely.
My entry was late and could have been taken when the market hit the 2 Hr Smooth but the H1 wasn't in sync at that stage.
I'm sure there's more but that's all I can think of at the moment.
  • #16,294
  • Jul 24, 2019 6:13pm Jul 24, 2019 6:13pm
Quoting SuchParadox
{quote} Entry: With market beginning to show the conditions of a swing up. I entered long at the retrace to smooth on the h2, with the opening above ema, an entry into the future. Risk is that tp is just above h2 romar resistance but below daily ema. {image}
Evaluation: This was a losing trade. I broke several rules and took a counter trend trade. I need to focus on following the rules and make a habit not to break them. On my plan I wrote a sell at resistance however I took a buy without making any adjustments.
I thought the open above ema was enough confluence to take the trade up. However the bigger picture was the complete downtrend showing on all charts. Yes the market did go up 30 pips, but the risk was too high and the trade ended up being a loser.
When trading I should focus on removing risk. To do that I should be more patient and wait for proper entries off support or resistance, with the correct market condition in mind.
Thank you Dana for evaluating my trade.
  • #16,295
  • Jul 24, 2019 8:07pm Jul 24, 2019 8:07pm
NEWS Moderate impact news in 7 – 8 hours, High impact news in 11 hours

DAILY CHART - DATE: 25th July 2019


ROMAR: Resistance
EMA: Resistance
Parabolic: Resistance
Check List:
Last MACD 0 Crossing Down
Last EMA Alert Arrow Down
Last DB Attachment Low
Fibo up or down Up
NOTES: Strong downtrend continues




4 HOUR CHART:

ROMAR: Resistance
EMA: Resistance
Parabolic: Resistance
Check List:
Last MACD 0 Crossing Down
Last EMA Alert Arrow
Last DB Attachment Low
Fibo up or down Up
NOTES: White has crossed Purple and MACD bars getting shorter



2 HOUR CHART:

Opening Price: 120.493
ROMAR: Resistance
EMA: Resistance
Parabolic: Support
Check List:
Last MACD 0 Crossing Up
Last EMA Alert Arrow Up
Last DB Attachment Low
Fibo up or down Up
NOTES: EMA at Purple for crossing and PSAR just flipped.
SAR attached high at 38.2 Fib




1 HOUR CHART:

ROMAR: Resistance
EMA: Support
Parabolic: Support
Check List:
Last MACD 0 Crossing Up
Last EMA Alert Arrow Up
Last DB Attachment N/A
Fibo up or down Up
NOTES: White and Purple very tight. ROMAR 15 pips above market
And above upper BB



NOTES (All four charts):
Trading Chart (Trend, Swing, Consolidation) ROMAR downtrend but
EMA at Purple and PSAR flipping on current bar puts market into Consolidation.
ROMAR Resistance currently 44 pips away.

Entry: Too much Resistance to counter-trade.
I will look for an opportunity to go short when H1 and H2
Turn back down in sync.
  • #16,296
  • Jul 24, 2019 9:10pm Jul 24, 2019 9:10pm
Market is downtrend ranging.
On H2, resistance hit at 38.2 Fib with PSAR and SAR attachment.
Entered short (possibly one bar late)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 76 KB
  • #16,297
  • Jul 25, 2019 10:04am Jul 25, 2019 10:04am
Quoting downunderfx
Market is downtrend ranging. On H2, resistance hit at 38.2 Fib with PSAR and SAR attachment. Entered short (possibly one bar late){image}
What most traders are having problems with and that is not focus on Divergences with the pullback off the Parabolic for the Hidden divergence - with the SAR. With your trade is exactly what happened. In order to eliminate the Hidden you also need the DB with the SAR in which did not happen to continue in the direction of the SAR. Hopefully you pulled out with the economic Red Tag.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #16,298
  • Jul 25, 2019 11:17am Jul 25, 2019 11:17am
Quoting dove_alliance
{quote} What most traders are having problems with and that is not focus on Divergences with the pullback off the Parabolic for the Hidden divergence - with the SAR. With your trade is exactly what happened. In order to eliminate the Hidden you also need the DB with the SAR in which did not happen to continue in the direction of the SAR. Hopefully you pulled out with the economic Red Tag.
Dana I don't fully understand what you mean with the statement 'in order to eliminate the hidden divergence you need the dB and Sar.
  • #16,299
  • Jul 25, 2019 12:39pm Jul 25, 2019 12:39pm
Quoting SuchParadox
{quote} Dana I don't fully understand what you mean with the statement 'in order to eliminate the hidden divergence you need the dB and Sar.
After all this time in learning you do not understanding what I mean. I believe I was very clear on my statement. This means you have not studied about Divergence and how the DB/SAR works with Divergence. That also means you need to study and find your answer.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #16,300
  • Jul 25, 2019 12:44pm Jul 25, 2019 12:44pm
Quoting dove_alliance
{quote} After all this time in learning you do not understanding what I mean. I believe I was very clear on my statement. This means you have not studied about Divergence and how the DB/SAR works with Divergence. That also means you need to study and find your answer.
Okay I will go back and study the dB/sar and divergence.
Thank you
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