Trading against the herd | Page 10 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Is Trading Against An FX Dealer A Crap Shoot? 5 replies

Who are you trading against? 2 replies

do big banks collect good trading systems and then move against us? 6 replies

Trading Against the Mass Strategy 8 replies

Trading against the majority 44 replies

Attachments: Trading against the herd
Exit Attachments

Trading against the herd

  • #181
  • Jul 24, 2019 4:46pm Jul 24, 2019 4:46pm
Quoting neilsdigest
{quote} It was a bit obvious it would go up today as soon as London opened with the new Prime Minister.. (Data again, it always does) Then wait until you read about the no deal brexit news and it will start to tumble again. He has only got to october to make a deal with the dreaded E.U or we leave with a no deal and the herd will be left with egg on there faces. The more it gets to October and a deal is still off the cards the pound will freefall. The GBP is still in a big downtrend. The USD is still in a big uptrend.. GBPUSD is still good for selling...
  • #182
  • Jul 24, 2019 8:03pm Jul 24, 2019 8:03pm
Quoting Marcieny
{quote}
  • #183
  • Jul 25, 2019 10:01am Jul 25, 2019 10:01am
All you need is the readily available data to trade what I'll-b-back has shared. When you start to depend on luck you are doomed to fail.
Again, thank you I'll-b-back for revising my interest in this method. Best trades to all.
_________________________________________________________________
  • #184
  • Jul 26, 2019 7:03am Jul 26, 2019 7:03am
Currently looking @ AUD/USD. Since I'll-b-back revised my interest in this I've made a sizeable amount of pips in the USD/CAD & GBP/JPY pairs. Enough to entice me into trading a live account as the previous pips were earned in demo. Once you zero in on a pair trade it until the data start to turn against your current trading direction. As you know the data can turn in a matter of hours. Stay away from greed & only get what is safe to get. This is a simple method requiring nothing more than the data sources that were shared on page 6 of this thread. This thread will probably never gain much more traction than it has now, but the method is sound & simple to follow. It just needs someone to code 5 indicators & that wonderful EA the so many seem to love & then there will page after page of endless chatter of how to make the indicators & EA perform better. Soon the whole idea will be lost & forgotten. Sorry for the rant, Just couldn't resist. Btw really nothing against indicators, but there are times they are just not needed. Now lets get back to trading.
  • #185
  • Jul 26, 2019 12:51pm Jul 26, 2019 12:51pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Bulls back up to 63% with clear bearish PA....
Now bulls at 70% as Cable makes new recent low
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #186
  • Edited 6:08pm Jul 26, 2019 12:52pm | Edited 6:08pm
Quoting acetrader
All you need is the readily available data to trade what I'll-b-back has shared. When you start to depend on luck you are doomed to fail. Again, thank you I'll-b-back for revising my interest in this method. Best trades to all. _________________________________________________________________
No problem Acetrader, I really enjoy experimentation
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #187
  • Jul 26, 2019 1:18pm Jul 26, 2019 1:18pm
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} enough fire power remains for one final major dump (150-200 points).
100 points done. 100 more remaining next week. Then we get a mercy bounce post FED.
Overall, the pound is totaled, it's a train wreck.
Bulltards and all kinds of retards come and go, only a few players remain in this FX game over the years.
  • #188
  • Jul 26, 2019 2:23pm Jul 26, 2019 2:23pm
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} 100 points done. 100 more remaining next week. Then we get a mercy bounce post FED. Overall, the pound is totaled, it's a train wreck. Bulltards and all kinds of retards come and go, only a few players remain in this FX game over the years.
Didn't you say "a final"?
  • #189
  • Jul 26, 2019 2:29pm Jul 26, 2019 2:29pm
Quoting bigiivan
{quote} Didn't you say "a final"?
before FED. yes. However, post FED we get a mercy bounce yet it won't change the trend.
This train wreck ain't going nowhere any time soon, DXY will stay in SS3 mode for a long time.
Posted this GAN setup elsewhere. This is going to be huuuge.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 63 KB
  • #190
  • Jul 26, 2019 6:53pm Jul 26, 2019 6:53pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Now bulls at 70% as Cable makes new recent low
Make that 72% long at close of day/week.

We still got bullish calls for Cable....

I'm lost for words.

The power of open bullish position bias....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDWeekly.png Size: 25 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #191
  • Jul 26, 2019 7:18pm Jul 26, 2019 7:18pm
Everyone has their method and are responsible for their own.

Will leave alone....

Have a great weekend everyone.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #192
  • Jul 27, 2019 1:00am Jul 27, 2019 1:00am
I guess this is the end of the party
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 29 KB
  • #193
  • Jul 27, 2019 1:31am Jul 27, 2019 1:31am
Quoting frostypips
I guess this is the end of the party {image}
Anomaly
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #194
  • Jul 27, 2019 6:17am Jul 27, 2019 6:17am
Quoting Ill-b-back
Trade against the FF retail herd and make money. The rules are incredibly simple: As soon as the percentage of GBPUSD bulls (on a daily count basis) goes above 50%, start shorting. As soon as the percentage of GBPUSD bears goes above 50%, close out shorts and go long.
Did you try it? And did it work? Could you please share your performance?
  • #195
  • Jul 27, 2019 6:44am Jul 27, 2019 6:44am
Quoting landorra
{quote} Did you try it? And did it work? Could you please share your performance?
Nope, this is an experiment, following the inverse relationship between herd sentiment and price action for the GBPUSD pair. It's quite consistent.

For example, looking at the daily analysis, the herd have been bullish since around May 7th at 1.3 or so..
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #196
  • Jul 27, 2019 9:46am Jul 27, 2019 9:46am
Quoting landorra
{quote} Did you try it? And did it work? Could you please share your performance?
Meaning nope, I haven't tried it yet
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #197
  • Jul 27, 2019 10:24am Jul 27, 2019 10:24am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} No problem Acetrader, I really enjoy experimentation
So do I my friend.
  • #198
  • Edited 6:06pm Jul 27, 2019 5:23pm | Edited 6:06pm
I don't know how to convey my point properly but I will try.

Lets start with a buy scenario.

For whatever reason, the buyers start buying and they are in minority. Slowly, the price start going up because of the new demand. More buyers come in and the price keeps going up and up. At some point, seeing how much the price has moved up, the buying shrinks but still, a ton of traders are holding longs. Then the trend reverses and starts coming down. At this point, we look at the stats and see that the majority of traders are long and seeing the strong movement down, we trade against the herd. Right?

Are we trading against the herd or against supply/demand?

Before attacking me and telling me that I don't understand the basics of trading and SR etc., just think about it. At the bottom there is a lot of supply (and traders willing to buy in this case and sellers willing to exit their positions) and the herd gets in on it and squeezes the last drop all the way to the top. When reversal occurs, yes you will be going against the herd by nature cause the supply (read willingness to buy) is exhausted.

Basically, in my view, the traders actions mimic the supply and demand stats. In going against the herd, you are kind of going against supply/demand. The herd activity just happens to fit supply/demand lines which if there was an indicator for it, would almost exactly mirror the price chart and that is what everyone is mistaking for the herd mentality. Take RSI for example. When overbought, you sell the pair. Right? What does overbought mean? Means a lot of traders are holding longs. You are going against the herd mentality. If it makes people feel superior that they are going against the herd mentality, that's fine but it's not a new invention.

OK flame on....
  • #199
  • Jul 27, 2019 6:09pm Jul 27, 2019 6:09pm
Just small comment on Supply and Demand if I may.

There is nothing like supply and demand that would have influence on price move in retail forex world. That's myth. My buy order won't be ever "paired" with your sell order (if we take apart dealing desk brokers etc.) and for this reason retail traders can not have any influence on price (when taking apart the fact that retail volume is so small that it would not move the price anyway).
My buy order will be sent to market maker and he fills my order and acts as counterpart for my trades. Liquidity provided by market maker moves the price. Limit and stop orders placed by traders are just another sort of liquidity.
Favourite stup hunts theories are based on similar myth that big boys hunts our stops. No, it's nothing personal, they are just hunting liquidity. It's just the way how the market naturally works and that's the reason why trading against the crowd makes sense to me.

Very simply put. One single sell order can theoretically move price when there is low or no liquidity even though there is hundred times more buy orders at the same time.

LIQUIDITY is THE KING who drives the price in the direction of lesser liquidity.

Now the one million dollar question is: how to utilize this fact to anyone's benefit
  • #200
  • Jul 27, 2019 6:21pm Jul 27, 2019 6:21pm
Quoting OutThere
You are going against the herd mentality. If it makes people feel superior that they are going against the herd mentality, that's fine but it's not a new invention. OK flame on....
I would answer in a better post but time is limited right now... If you look at the stats on either the front page of FF or myfxbook outlook you will see that the herd trade against the trend. They look for tops and bottoms.

I was watching the GBPUSD thread on Friday afternoon.. Price was falling and in said thread they kept buying. All I read was buying here, buying there and the price kept falling.

They have been buying the GBP/USD since May 7th. Oh I should say there have been more buyers then sellers (FF stats and myfxbook stats) in the GBP/USD.
Price has fallen since then and big.

I got this method from someone else from another thread. Awesome stuff and works.
It works and amazes me.

People don't get the method because they just take it as is and don't look at the stats..
GBP/USD position stats..
Buy Losing Trades = 1119
Sell Losing Trades = 43
With stats like that I would keep selling :-)

Quoting FrostyPips... MyFXbook does have anomalies sometimes.

P.S There is no such thing as overbought/ Oversold in Forex. It's a myth.. When will the GBP be oversold?
Honesty, Integrity and Transparency
0 traders viewing now