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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #4,261
  • Jul 23, 2019 2:41am Jul 23, 2019 2:41am
Hello all!
Is that the RSI/RSI div. that we could trade long (may be scalp) in the EMA direction?
It is M30 chart and I dont see any entrances in m5.
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  • #4,262
  • Jul 23, 2019 3:03am Jul 23, 2019 3:03am
Quoting discussion
{image} Here is my loadings Allan
So if loading from the top down then you are expecting the price to trend long?
  • #4,263
  • Jul 23, 2019 3:07am Jul 23, 2019 3:07am
From post 4234 we are almost there with the price but is the EMA going to break it.

If so we may see that monthly look very likely 1808?
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  • #4,264
  • Jul 23, 2019 3:12am Jul 23, 2019 3:12am
Not forgetting what the 4H is up to...
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  • #4,265
  • Jul 23, 2019 3:59am Jul 23, 2019 3:59am
Well there you go, it made both the 1H and the 4H before the 4H closed.
  • #4,266
  • Jul 23, 2019 4:07am Jul 23, 2019 4:07am
Quoting Nala66
Not forgetting what the 4H is up to... {image}
Sorry about that image I must have been messing with the triangle and for some reason put it back in the wrong place, funny thing is no one noticed.

It should have been like this
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  • #4,267
  • Jul 23, 2019 4:22am Jul 23, 2019 4:22am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} Sorry about that image I must have been messing with the triangle and for some reason put it back in the wrong place, funny thing is no one noticed. It should have been like this {image}
I noticed! But you beat me to it
  • #4,268
  • Jul 23, 2019 4:27am Jul 23, 2019 4:27am
Quoting Nala66
Not forgetting what the 4H is up to... {image}
Alan, on the left triangle, could point C also be one pivot higher? It would still be 'attacking' A?

Cheers
  • #4,269
  • Jul 23, 2019 4:34am Jul 23, 2019 4:34am
Quoting k1w1
{quote} Alan, on the left triangle, could point C also be one pivot higher? It would still be 'attacking' A? Cheers
Yes and that would have shortened the target.

We had both originally drawn but I have removed the shorter one because it hit the larger one.
  • #4,270
  • Jul 23, 2019 4:37am Jul 23, 2019 4:37am
Is this going to happen from here on the hour chart?
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  • #4,271
  • Jul 23, 2019 5:31am Jul 23, 2019 5:31am
Nice price action today.
We are in a downtrend.
After bar 108 we got these 2 hidden divergences which triggered a scalp long.
Ran into RSI divergence at A so enter a hedge there. Closed the original long at the close of the next bar since the hedge proved itself. Added another position at the close of the hook bar. After the quick fall all stops are at BE+1.
The following price action sat up a nice AB=CD.
Sadly, I didn't hold on to my positions until D, but got enough of the move to be happy about my exit.
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  • #4,272
  • Jul 23, 2019 2:45pm Jul 23, 2019 2:45pm
Quoting fxmars
Nice price action today. We are in a downtrend. After bar 108 we got these 2 hidden divergences which triggered a scalp long. Ran into RSI divergence at A so enter a hedge there. Closed the original long at the close of the next bar since the hedge proved itself. Added another position at the close of the hook bar. After the quick fall all stops are at BE+1. The following price action sat up a nice AB=CD. Sadly, I didn't hold on to my positions until D, but got enough of the move to be happy about my exit. {image}
Thanks fxmars, good trading. Did you keep all stops at BE+1 while price moved from B to C? I'm trying to better understand stop placements. Rightly or wrongly, I would've moved my stops to above the wick of the bar after the bear impulse bar, so C would've stopped me out.

Cheers
  • #4,273
  • Jul 23, 2019 3:35pm Jul 23, 2019 3:35pm
Quoting k1w1
{quote} Thanks fxmars, good trading. Did you keep all stops at BE+1 while price moved from B to C? I'm trying to better understand stop placements. Rightly or wrongly, I would've moved my stops to above the wick of the bar after the bear impulse bar, so C would've stopped me out. Cheers
Yeah, that would have been a too tight stop, after an impulse bar you often get a retracement so the trade would need more room than that. I like to have an established price pivot before I move the stop closer.
So today I moved the stop first to 2445, then to 2439.
Stop placement can be an art in and of itself, you want to secure some pips, but you want to let the trade get some wiggle room to breathe without getting stopped out.
Today it was easy, since price moved down in nice little waves. Other times it can be more challenging. I am more of a scalper so I tend to keep the stops tight, and I often exit early (like today). But at the end of the day, the most important thing is to get your stop to BE+1, that is the most important aspect of any trading method, to protect your capital.
Price pivots, impulse bars, price structures, the EMA line are all good places to hide the stop behind. In general, put the stop where you want out of the trade if price reaches there. And when your trade gets near to the target, tighten up the stop, maybe within 1 or 2 bars, no need to give away more than you need to the market.
  • #4,274
  • Jul 23, 2019 4:23pm Jul 23, 2019 4:23pm
Quoting fxmars
{quote} Yeah, that would have been a too tight stop, after an impulse bar you often get a retracement so the trade would need more room than that. I like to have an established price pivot before I move the stop closer. So today I moved the stop first to 2445, then to 2439. Stop placement can be an art in and of itself, you want to secure some pips, but you want to let the trade get some wiggle room to breathe without getting stopped out. Today it was easy, since price moved down in nice little waves. Other times it can be more challenging. I am...
Excellent, thanks very much for your chart and explanation too. So helpful!
  • #4,275
  • Edited 8:06pm Jul 23, 2019 7:36pm | Edited 8:06pm
Quoting fxmars
Nice price action today. We are in a downtrend. After bar 108 we got these 2 hidden divergences which triggered a scalp long. Ran into RSI divergence at A so enter a hedge there. Closed the original long at the close of the next bar since the hedge proved itself. Added another position at the close of the hook bar. After the quick fall all stops are at BE+1. The following price action sat up a nice AB=CD. Sadly, I didn't hold on to my positions until D, but got enough of the move to be happy about my exit. {image}
This is a great illustration of practical trading all should take note of. Well done.

We see from this chart the trend was down so loading began at the hidden div in the long (wrong) direction. Since it was a short distance to A we would probably only get two trades on. These two trades are hedge at A in the short (trending) direction and the shorts are closed for a profit which would pay for the hedge stop if that had happened.(it didn't so we are all good in the short direction now)

The Hook would have given the opportunity to place the third trade and all stops in due time would be moved just below this entry so we all fully loaded in a free trade.

At B there was no indication or signal to go long so we just hold.

At C or just after that point we have a short signal in the form of RSI div. Once this kicks in we move all our stops to just above C locking in some of our fully loaded profit. We could add a little more but I wouldn't in the event of a turnaround I would like to keep the profit rather than risk the greed.

Between B and D there was bullish divergence so at that point we would have hedged long the hedge short to protect all our profits thus far. It came to nothing and would have been stopped out for a small profit or loss. However we should be seeing the 1H chart is heading for the level of D so perhaps we should risk it and do nothing (which I did and closed at D)

Closing at D is an option, the other choice is to again hedge the short hedge (A) Then close the short and pick up any additional required pips with the D hedge (which made a fortune 60pips)

Great job though FXmars and good chart reading to boot.
  • #4,276
  • Jul 23, 2019 8:09pm Jul 23, 2019 8:09pm
Quoting fxmars
{quote} Yeah, that would have been a too tight stop, after an impulse bar you often get a retracement so the trade would need more room than that. I like to have an established price pivot before I move the stop closer. So today I moved the stop first to 2445, then to 2439. Stop placement can be an art in and of itself, you want to secure some pips, but you want to let the trade get some wiggle room to breathe without getting stopped out. Today it was easy, since price moved down in nice little waves. Other times it can be more challenging. I am...
Exactly and move the stops where and when entry signals are given in this case the short signals. In other words we are treating the stops as entries locking in the profit as we go.
  • #4,277
  • Jul 23, 2019 11:48pm Jul 23, 2019 11:48pm
Quoting Nala66
{quote} This is a great illustration of practical trading all should take note of. Well done. We see from this chart the trend was down so loading began at the hidden div in the long (wrong) direction. Since it was a short distance to A we would probably only get two trades on. These two trades are hedge at A in the short (trending) direction and the shorts are closed for a profit which would pay for the hedge stop if that had happened.(it didn't so we are all good in the short direction now) The Hook would have given the opportunity to place the...
Alan, that was a really helpful breakdown of the trade for me, particularly the following:

"At B there was no indication or signal to go long so we just hold."

I had been wondering what we do when the market is moving against our position but there hasn't been a div signal to initiate a hedge.

A question: How would we have dealt with the bullish reg div that occurred for most of the final leg down to D?

Cheers
  • #4,278
  • Jul 24, 2019 12:18am Jul 24, 2019 12:18am
Quoting k1w1
{quote} Alan, that was a really helpful breakdown of the trade for me, particularly the following: "At B there was no indication or signal to go long so we just hold." I had been wondering what we do when the market is moving against our position but there hasn't been a div signal to initiate a hedge. A question: How would we have dealt with the bullish reg div that occurred for most of the final leg down to D? Cheers
Well as I said we would or should have seen the 1h reaching for the line and when it is doing that then no div on the lower time frame is going to stop it.

Edit. Also it was the target for the 4H if you recall and hit before the close of the bar.
  • #4,279
  • Jul 24, 2019 2:38am Jul 24, 2019 2:38am
That 1H ABCD shot down while I was still setting the TP, I had to close quickly in a blind panic
  • #4,280
  • Jul 24, 2019 2:43am Jul 24, 2019 2:43am
It looks to me like the average is trying to break B but the price hasn't done so. This is a tad worrying so I will sit it out a while now.

Probably this is a battle I don't want to be in.

Edit. An impulse bar to the down side would be nice, but better to let the market sort itself out.
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