WTI Crude Oil Trading

Li, I'm still in, by the way, the Islanders postman has called, you all have mail, have a good night,speak tomorrow, great game today, D

You 2 on the progress of grand master today!

Thanks, not wanting to distract you from your proven methods, let me know thoughts and any possible improvements, D

triangle on H1 looking for some action

OIL: TALK OF 'HIDDEN' IRANIAN BARRELS, DEMAND WORRIES PREVENTING JUMP HIGHER - TDS
23 July 2019, 11:11

Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, suggests that fears that weak demand will negate OPEC+ cuts, speculation that millions of Iranians barrels are about to hit the market and outsized US inventories have depressed crude oil prices recently.
Key Quotes

“This has occurred despite numerous escalations of tensions between the west and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. WTI prices have fallen into $55/b territory last week, near levels which could well drive trend following CTAs to aggressively build additional short exposure.”

“Weak economic data in China and around the world has some observers believing that demand may drop by as much as 400,000 b/d next year, which could well drive the market into a surplus again and force prices lower. More immediately, as many as ten very-large crude carriers and two smaller tankers owned by the state-run National Iranian Oil Company are believed to be sailing toward or idling in Chinese ports. These vessels can carry some 20 million bbls combined, and have not been cleared by Chinese costumes.”

“Once this crude lands, it is likely that future Chinese imports would drop for a while, applying significant downward pressure on prices. This to some extent explains the recent price drop to support levels. The reason that crude is maintaining the current price is the rising tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Strait of Hormuz which is the most important global choke point which could cause a massive shortage.”

“The risk premium has gone up after Iran seized two UK-linked tankers in the area. The good news is that UK and Iran are de-escalating, but it could also mean that the pure fundamentals may take over, sending prices below $55/b and trigger CTA selling.”

“We judge that there is little appetite for a shooting war at this stage, but we also believe that tensions and the risk premium will remain, preventing a rout. We also see demand to remain firmer than many expect, and continue to see modest upside as the summer unfolds and US inventories fall.”

Still working from this channel, 56 support atm, looking for a break of the center line, slooow at the mo

Hi guys and gals

Although I'm not interested in selling, in 1H it seems it wants to go down again, maybe it ends up doing something like this:


As you can see Gold did the same and perhaps is completing it:

WTI: UPSIDE STALLS NEAR $ 56.50 AHEAD OF API DATA
23 July 2019, 13:25

 

1. Buoyed by rising Gulf geopolitical tensions that threaten supply disruption.
2. Unabated US dollar strength, dwindling oil demand keep the upside in check.
3. All eyes on trade, geopolitics and US API crude stockpiles data for fresh direction.

The latest uptick in WTI (futures on Nymex) faltered just ahead of the midpoint of the 56 handle, as a tug-of-war between the bulls and bears continue ahead of the American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly crude stock data release.

The sentiment around the black gold remains underpinned by rife Middle East tensions, in the face of last week’s seizure of the two British tankers by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. Markets fear the escalating tensions in the Gulf would hamper the crude supplies, as the Hormuz Strait is one of the key trading channel.

Despite the renewed strength in the barrel of WTI, the sellers continue to lurk amid persistent broad-based US dollar demand and bleak global oil demand outlook (as reported by the International Energy Agency recently). Falling odds of aggressive July Fed rate cut combined with a deal reached by the US President Trump and Congress leaders on the US debt offer extra zest to the USD bulls. A stronger greenback makes the USD-sensitive oil expensive for the holders in foreign currencies.

The immediate focus now remains on the USD dynamics and geopolitical developments, as markets eagerly await the API crude report, due at 2030 GMT, for fresh direction on the prices.

Skimmed another 12 points on last drop, bounced lower channel line but not going as I thought I stll have my bull head on

Out on the side now, volume has turned slightly neg but 56 could still be magnet

Good luck

You can't win them all Sponge

Just divide the playing field in boxes and even ranging markets can be played with pure PA.

Doesn't worth selling, it may go lower a little more but PITA*
Wait for a good buy setup to jump in and keep for months

* Pain in the a..s

Check out this another example in GBPAUD 1H:



Maybe I can name this pattern as Tick or Checkmark and publish my book as Behzad's wave principle

Maybe you should call it ticketyboo

But your too late I already have it

Hey all, hope your well, been through the inventory and some great posts, as always, Li, AUD/NZD, phew!! we both missed a trick, I did get out before the roll, wasn't looking to hold while not attending, was a great setup, and pleased to be part of it, sent Sponge and yourself another screenshot of the templates I sent, let me know, D

Thnx will have a look at it!

Aarriapoor, had this on a buy yesterday, while it may have spooked me on the fall, it made a great come back, hope you were part of it, oh and another name could be "Checkmate" D

Got a buy on WTI, seems it doesn't know it that well, on 30min chart, staying out again, to unpredictable, the idea of hidden barrels of oil, becoming more of a murder mystery novel, do have AUDJPY 4hr sell on the Grand Master, D

56

Very hot today

Having

Hey Sponge have one on me too, never mind the weather, sponge is on today, enjoy, D
Nas short posted 30 min, now on the Grand master