Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

When trading supply and demand imbalances we don’t really need any kind of indicator or add-on tools to tell us how and when to place a trade. Trading should be simpler than dragging a few indicators or tools on our charts expecting red and green arrows to tell us in which direction to place our trades.

Are you sure you want to rely on indicators to tell you what to do? Wouldn't it be better to learn how the market moves and place trades according to a thorough top down analysis using the only non lagging indicator there is? Yes, price action is the only indicator that won't be repainted if there is a sudden volatility spike in the markets.Let’s take a USDSGD Forex cross pair daily timeframe using supply and demand imbalances for technical analysis without a single indicator dragged on the chart, just price action and impulses.

USDSGD Forex cross pair has been rallying for a few weeks creating new demand imbalances on the way up on the daily timeframe. The big picture trend is bullish so we are only interested in buying USDSGD Forex Cross pair. Supply and demand is telling us that we should only be thinking of buying new demand zones, not selling.

Why should we need to add all kind of indicators like Bollinger Bands, CCI, RSI, MACD and exponential moving averages to make a trading decision when price action when everything is pointing up? The attached chart for USDSGD Forex cross pair a daily chart, each candlestick is a day of time. It’s pretty clear that the whole move started at the bottom around 1.3472. On the way up a few daily demand imbalances were created, there has been a retracement to the first three imbalances at 1, 2 and 3 but price continued to rally strongly without providing a pullback to new demand levels at 4 and 5.



Learn how to trade Forex using supply and demand imbalances

As mentioned in previous supply and demand technical analyses. When trading supply and demand imbalances we don’t really need any indicator or add-on tools to tell us how and when to place a trade. Let’s take a look at Tiffany % Co. stock #TIF using supply and demand imbalances as technical analysis without using a single indicator dragged on the chart, just price action and impulses.

When looking at the monthly chart, it’s clear there bearish impulses are stronger than the bullish impulses. These impulses have created a brand new monthly supply imbalance around $121 per share. Unfortunately price has not rallied there yet and dropping strongly. The bias is shorts right now since bearish impulses are stronger than bullish impulses. You can used these impulses and use other trading strategies to take shorts on the way down, or even use options strategies to take long puts on the way down. See monthly chart below with the monthly supply imbalance drawn around that price area.



Learn how to trade Stocks using supply and demand imbalances

In this short video we are going to show you what price action areas we expect price to react from on USDJPY Forex Cross pair. USDJPY is dropping strongly reacting to previous weekly supply imbalances in a big picture downtrend. New supply levels have been created around 114, 112.69 and a brand new one around 111.60. This USDJPY cross pair analysis is done on the weekly timeframe for those interested in a Forex strategy to help them in their swing trading.

These strong impulses become often times a new imbalance where we can plan our trades based on very specific rules. By reading a series of price action patterns you will be able to identify certain price areas that become supply and demand imbalances where you will be able to plan your trades. One of the most important characteristic for an impulse to become an imbalance is its strength as can be seen in the imbalances drawn on USDJPY Forex cross pair weekly timeframe. Price action together with a mechanical supply and demand strategy will help you locate areas of imbalance where new trades can be taken.

USDJPY has fallen short of retracing to last supply imbalance around 112 but has continued to drop strongly creating another supply level around 111.60. There are many Forex trading strategies that work, you just have to master one of them by trading it over a long period of time until you are number one doing the same boring thing every day. If you start skimming around and jumping between different strategies you will be auto-sabotaging yourself.



Learn how to trade Forex using a supply and demand stratregy

In this short video analysis, we will go over Coca Cola american stock forecast and show you how to trade stocks using a supply and demand trading strategy.

Coca Cola stock is in a clear long term uptrend for many months now, creating new demand imbalances and respecting them. No matter which stock trading strategy you use, the bias on Coca Cola stock is bullish unless you are doing intraday or scalping where shorts would also be allowed. As a long term investor, going short or selling short Coca Cola stock with in such a clear uptrend is suicidal.

As a beginner in trading stocks, we recommend you to stay away from lagging indicators. Looking at price action alone without any interference will help you understand how the stock market works, it will help you learn how to trade stocks easier. How to invest in stocks as a beginner? Locate strong bullish impulses that are printing highs higher than previous highs. The strength of the impulse is key to understand where potential new imbalances are created.

In the technical video analysis attached you will see how Coca Cola american stock has been rallying for months creating new demand levels and retracing to them. The long term bias is bullish with bullish impulses being stronger than market corrections. Demand levels at $37, $41 and $41 have held really way in such a bullish market.



Learn how to trade Stocks using a supply and demand stratregy

GBPZAR Forex cross pair is reacting strongly to last weekly demand level around 18.27. See below weekly chart for GBPZAR, it's a longer term technical analysis based on supply and demand imbalances.

As mentioned in previous technical analysis in the set and forget trading community, we were expecting GBPZAR Forex cross pair to react strongly to that weekly demand imbalance and so it's doing in a second retest of that impulse.There is no reason to think of selling shorts GBPZAR Forex cross pair.

Medium term forecast is bullish. We don't need any kind of indicators to place any buy orders when trading supply and demand imbalances, we simply need to know where the imbalances are located, no need of overbought or oversold indicators or colourful arrows telling you what to do.

Last two weekly demand imbalances are holding nicely as expected, buying GBPZAR Forex cross pair is the way to go right now.These strong bullish impulses on GBPZAR Forex cross pair become often times a new imbalance where we can plan our trades based on very specific rules.

By reading a series of price action patterns you will be able to identify certain price areas and price levels that become supply and demand imbalances where you will be able to plan your trades.

One of the most important characteristic for an impulse to become an imbalance is its strength as can be seen in the imbalances drawn on GBPZAR Forex cross pair weekly timeframe. Price action together with a mechanical supply and demand strategy will help you locate areas of imbalance where new trades can be placed.



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Brent Crude Oil futures bearish forecast with new supply levels imbalances being created. Brent crude oil is correcting strongly after such a strong bullish move in the past months. Bullish impulses have become corrections and now there are a few daily supply levels created on the way down after such a strong rally.

Three supply imbalances have been created on Brent Crude Oil Futures around $74, $72 and $69. Price has not retraced to them but it did retrace at lower timeframe supply levels on the H4 timeframe.



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There are many ways we can trade, you just have to choose one of the multiple trading strategies available out there. Many of them will work, success cannot be measured by the quality, simplicity or complexity of the trading strategy but how well you execute its rules and how good you are controlling your emotions and managing your mindset.

BitCoin crypto currency is not an to this rule. The BitCoin analysis can be done in two completely different ways:

1. Fundamental analysis. This will require a much bigger understanding of what is going on behind the scenes in the crypto currency world and the crypto currency markets. A lot of research is needed
2. Technical analysis. Less work is needed, it’s said that fundamental analysis is priced in already so crypt currency technical analysis will help you make an educated trading decision and start as a beginner trading BitCoin

Currently BitCoin price is reacting to a strong monthly demand level located around $4600 price area, it’s been reacting to it for a few months now. Hope all those doing crypto currency mining have had some success mining BitCoin Crypto currency trading? How can we trade BitCoin using supply and demand imbalances as a beginner? No need to learn about the fundamentals, there are simple rules that will allow you to locate new turning points and imbalances on BitCoin today or on any crypto currency.

Where could possible BitCoin price go in the next few weeks? Well, there has been a very strong bullish rally on BitCoin for the last weeks. After a very strong bullish move BitCoin crypto currency, continue buying BitCoin is not a good idea, we expect a much bigger retracement since BitCoin is too expensive to buy now. Could it continue rallying for more weeks? Of course it could, it can possibly do that but as a supply and demand trader we should be waiting for the correction and trade strong imbalances of demand instead of buying BitCoin crypto currency after such a strong rally. You would not do that in normal life situations when buying a new car or a new house, why should you buy BitCoin crypto currency today when you know it’s just far too expensive? It’s illogical.

WATCH BITCOIN VIDEO ANALYSIS HERE

In this short video I am going to explain the basics on what to look for to learn how to trade Nifty 50 Indian Index and locate turning points in the stock market.
There are many technical analysis trading strategies you could use to learn how to trade Nifty 50 futures and stocks within the Nifty 50 Indian index.

In this video we are going to explain what you should be looking for on a chart, the basic characteristics of candlesticks patterns that will help you locate turning points in the market.

It's very important to trade these strong impulse in the context of a bigger picture trend and avoid trading counter trend scenarios. How can you buy Nifty 50 futures index or Nifty 50 related stocks in an uptrend? First of all you must look for impulses strong enough to create a series of wide candlestick bodies in the direction the of the long term trend. The chart attached shows a few impulses drawn on Nifty 50 futures weekly timeframe, that means that every candlestick represents a week if time.



By simply comparing the strength of those moves you will be able to locate potential turning points in the Nifty 50 futures index and related Nifty 50 Indian stocks. Trading impulses against the trend is not the best strategy since you will be going against the long term bias of the underlying asset or stock. How to buy Nifty 50 futures index? Well, locate these impulses and do a top down technical analysis before making a decision to buy or sell at these impulses. A single timeframe technical analysis is not enough to make a trading decision.

WATCH NIFTY 50 FUTURES VIDEO ANALYSIS HERE

Below you will find an USDCAD technical analysis using supply and demand imbalances as price areas where a potential trade can happen. USDCAD Forex cross pair has reacted to a very strong weekly supply level around 1.3565, reached that weekly supply imbalance two weeks ago and USD Forex cross pair has been dropping ever since.

Once a very strong supply level like the one mentioned above has gained control, going long on USDCAD Forex cross pair becomes very low odds, it’s not a very good trading strategy to go long against a very strong supply level in control. Had you taken into consideration this kind of technical analysis on USDCAD, you would have been thinking of going short instead of longs.

As a beginner trading Forex you will be taught to trade all kind of lagging indicators like moving average crosses, under bought and over bought oscillators like CCI and RSI, and the like. We don’t need to use any indicators to make a trading decision, as a beginner in Forex trading you will be tempted to do it because that’s what everyone out there is teaching and telling you to do. But as a thinking person, you should not put yourself as a Forex beginner or newbie, think about it, if everyone knows that everyone is doing the same thing, that thing can no longer be an edge.

USDCAD Forex cross pair has been dropping strongly from weekly supply level, only shorts are allowed in lower timeframes. No need to pay attention to any kind of fundamental news and data releases, it’s already priced in.



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If you are looking to trade Gold SPDR Trust ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) or Gold XAUUSD cash market, the long term Gold GLD forecast is bullish. Gold ETF has been rallying for the last weeks creating new strong impulses on the weekly timeframe showing more strength on the bull side.

Currently we have a weekly supply imbalance in control around $126. As supply and demand beginner traders, we should not be trading against such an imbalance in control. Last time that imbalance was tested price dropped strongly for some weeks. We should be looking of long positions. There is a strong demand imbalance created lower around $121. Trading Gold ETFs like GLD SPDR trust is no different to trading any other precious metal. All precious metal futures follow the supply and demand principles that tell us we shouldn’t be buying after a very strong rally or selling after a very strong drop. Trading is all about waiting for the right scenario before pulling the trigger blindly.

As a swing trader, you should not be looking to go long now on GLD SPDR trust or Gold XAUUSD. Watch GLD SPDR trust video analysis below for full details.

WATCH Gold SPDR Trust Shares video analysis

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In this week supply and demand technical analysis we will focus GBPAUD Forex cross pair using weekly supply and demand imbalances located with our supply and demand strategy. In Set and Forget trading community, we plan Forex and Stocks trades before the fact, way before they happen as you can see in this GBPAUD analysis.

GBPAUD Forex cross pair is in a clear uptrend with a very strong demand level created around 1.8243 in control. No short trades are allowed since a bigger timeframe technical analysis is telling us to go long, going short is suicidal. If you are trading lower timeframes, intraday o scalping you will probably see some losses in your trading account since a bigger timeframe demand level has gained control.

You can use this supply technical analysis to plan trades in smaller timeframes if you are an intraday trader. Thinking of going shorts on GBPAUD is not a very wise idea right now. See below what we are expecting on GBPAUD weekly chart to happen, lot of room for this Forex cross pair to keep on rallying as it did from previous demand imbalances.



This is the kind of analysis you will be able to find and learn about in our supply and demand trading community. See below a screenshot of this long setup called last 5th June, a few weeks ago. We do not show trades after they happen and play out, we plan them way in advance. Anyone can tell you where to buy or sell in hindsight, anyone! See below the GBPCAD Forex post I am referring to.


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In this short video trading analysis for USDCAD Forex major we can see what happens when supply imbalance takes control in a trending market. USDCAD Forex major has been dropping for a few days creating a new supply level around 1.3393. We expected price to retrace all the way up there and so it happened.
Now that price has reacted strongly to USDCAD daily supply level, it has reached a strong demand level on the daily timeframe. If you are an intraday trader or scalper we do not recommend you to keep on selling with a bigger timeframe demand level in control on USDCAD Forex major. We should be expecting for a bigger retracement no matter what the news releases are saying out the US dollar or the Canadian dollar economies. New supply levels are being created, a downtrend on USDCAD? Shorts is the way to go.

Remember that a single timeframe analysis is not enough to make a high probability trading decision. We need to do a top down analysis on USDCAD before we think of taking a trade. As a beginner trader you should be focusing on trending markets and avoid counter trend trading scenarios. You might be using other Forex trading strategies, this supply and demand trading analysis might add some more confluences to your existing Forex trading strategy.

WATCH USDCAD VIDEO ANALYSIS HERE

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

NZDUSD Forex cross pair is offering buy opportunities reacting to monthly demand zone after a few months doing not too much. As a supply and demand trader, we must not go against bigger timeframe demand zones like the one shown in NZDUSD Forex cross pair technical analysis below.



New Zealand Dollar is getting stronger in most Forex cross pairs. not only on NZDUSD. The US dollar is getting weaker in most Forex cross pairs as well, these two things are helping NZDUSD New Zealand dollar to reach to monthly demand level around 0.6622. Going short on NZDUSD is not a good idea.





Learn how to trade Forex and stocks

Coca Cola (NYSE: KO) american stock is in a clear long bias with new weekly demand levels and imbalances being created and respected. Previous weekly demand imbalance playing out from $45.

There is a clear bullish trend when doing the top down technical analysis, great long term long opportunities on Coca Cola stock at these imbalances or new imbalances if price continues to rally and breaks higher.

A brand new imbalance has been created on the weekly timeframe around $49.63 where buy opportunities will be possible on Coca Cola stock if market conditions stay the same.



Learn how to trade Forex and stocks

USDSGD Forex cross pair is in a clear downtrend creating new supply levels on the way down. As supply and demand traders, we should be interested in trading very strong impulses that end up creating new supply and demand imbalances. Price action together with supply and demand technical analysis is the perfect combination.

Trading is a waiting game where we should be stacking as many odds in our favour as possible. Being impatient will end up getting you in trouble by chasing the trades and causing unnecessary losses. USDSGD cross pair forecast is clearly bearish with very strong supply levels created around 1.36 and 1.37. There is still room for price to keep on dropping further.

The US Dollar and Dollar Index DXY is getting weaker in most Forex Cross Pairs, this is helping USDSGD Forex cross pair to drop as it does creating new supply levels on the way down.



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In this short technical analysis video on Dollar Index DXY you will learn some tips on the kind of price action we want to see in the creation of new supply and demand imbalances. You don’t need any indicators to plan a trade, price action and supply and demand will tell you where price is most out of balance.

Take a look at the Dollar Index DXY daily chart explained in the video analysis. The strongest impulses are bearish, the last one around $97 was created a couple of weeks ago, the first one at the top was created at $98 a couple of weeks before. When looking at the daily chart these two bearish impulses and imbalances stand out over the rest of impulses and price action. No matter what Forex trading strategy you are using to plan a trade, it’s neither wise nor advisable to go long in lower timeframes against such strong bearish impulses.

Most traders end up trading lower timeframe Forex strategies, probably using fifteen minutes and five minutes charts to plan their trades, ignoring what the bigger picture trend and the bigger timeframes are saying. No matter how many indicators you are using in your strategy, when price retraces to strong imbalances in a clear trend, you will start losing if you keep on trading against them.



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Anglogold Ashanti LTD Gold stock is creating new buy opportunities at new weekly demand imbalance created around $12.35 per share. This gold related american stock is highly correlated to Gold XAUUSD, since Gold has been rallying lately creating new bigger timeframe demand levels, many gold related stocks are rallying together with Gold creating new demand level to trade from if price retraces to them.How to trade supply and demand imbalances.

It can take some time for price to retrace to Anglogold Ashanti weekly demand level but that's what supply and demand traders must do, look for the footprints of big investors and wait for price to retrace to these new strong impulses and imbalances. The supply and demand strategy requires waiting for price to visit the origin of the move.The attached chart represents the weekly timeframe, a longer term timeframe. Similar price action and imbalances will be created on lower timeframes for those doing shorter term trading using supply and demand imbalances and trading gold.

Anglogold Ashanti Ltd stock has a bullish bias with weekly timeframe in an uptrend creating new demand levels, no shorts are allowed right now.



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Hilton Grand Vacation HGV, american stock trading in New York Stock Exchanges is providing us with new weekly demand imbalances to trade long from. We don’t really need any lagging indicators or oscillators to tell us where a potential buy or sell opportunity may have been created.

Price action is the only non lagging indicator there is and most traders are ignoring it by adding a myriad of indicators and oscillators to their charts, believing they will tell them how to trade the stock markets successfully. By consistently ignoring price action and the imbalances created by new bullish and bearish impulses, we are making sure to be on the wrong side of the equation most of the time.

How to trade american stocks using price action and supply and demand imbalances
We strongly advice you not to ignore price action if you want to learn how to trade stocks successfully. When look at Hilton Grand Vacation american stock you will be able to see how to very strong bullish impulses are being created on the weekly timeframe at the bottom around $26 per share. These new bullish impulses are creating new weekly demand imbalances, these levels of demand are not created by retailers. These new potential imbalances are being created at all time lows, Hilton Grand Vacation HGV is cheap to buy and so thousand of shares are being purchased allowing the underlying price of Hilton Grand Vacation HGV to rally and create a very strong bullish impulse on the weekly timeframe.



Now we know where the whole bullish move started, that footprint cannot be eliminated from Hilton Grand Vacation stock, price action cannot be undone. A weekly candle cannot close at $30 today and be un-closed the next day at $29. That can happen with lagging indicators and moving averages, it just cannot happen if your trading strategy involves price action technical analysis. By adding price action and imbalances to your stock trading strategy you will be trading where huge piles or orders have taken place, not after they have been filled.

Watch video technical analysis here

This is an updated supply and demand technical analysis and forecast on EURUSD Forex Major. There is a clear bearish bias on EURUSD Forex cross pair with new lows printed on the monthly and weekly timeframes. Price has been ranging for weeks on EURUSD but after a few attacks to weak lower timeframe demand levels, demand imbalances in the lower timeframes have been eliminating leaving a bearish void to be filled on the way down to monthly demand around 1.0652 where longs will be possible again long term.

There is no reason to go long on EURUSD Forex cross pair, no matter which Forex trading strategy you are using, be it a technical Forex trading strategy or a fundamental trading strategy. No matter how positive or negative news releases and fundamentals are on the Euro or the US dollar, the prevailing long term trend and bias is bearish so try to focus on selling EURUSD no matter which Forex trading strategy you are using.

We don't need fundamental analysis to make a trading decision as supply as demand traders. If you read a bit about EURUSD fundamental analysis and news releases, you will be able to read that EURUSD remains under pressure ahead of the FOMC event. You will read that the Forex cross pair has started the week on a mixed tone, although it manages well to keep business above recent lows in the 1.1100 neighbourhood despite the persistent buying interest surrounding the greenback. They also say that the recent dovish message at the ECB event has opened the door to the probable announcement of a package of accommodative measures at the September meeting, and is expected to keep the single currency under the microscope for the foreseeable future.

Do you think that you will be able to interpret the above message? Not even the best economist in the world will agree as to the measures ECB is talking about or what will the consequences for the EURUSD Forex cross air. Do you think you can outsmart those well known economists? We just cannot, so we'd better leave them alone with their fundamental analysis and focus on what price action and supply and demand is telling us to do and that is selling EURUSD Forex cross pair.



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