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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #51,001
  • Edited 1:00pm Jul 16, 2019 10:41am | Edited 1:00pm
Quoting auricforecas
Good day gentlemen... Market will be locked in a trend, according to my price prediction model... and no later than 15.7+ Yes, that means from 15th of July 2019 till at least 10-15th of October 2019.... Meaning that USD will get (slowly) stronger by the day... It seems that we would have somewhat LINEAR trend... with not many deviations... except for maybe some muppet show spikes... when ECB/FED or some "presidents" tweets some disturbances.. but overall pretty stable... GOLD seems to be inversely correlated to USD.. but not 100%... a little more...
so far so good, reaffirming... next 2-3 weeks vital
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #51,002
  • Jul 16, 2019 10:53am Jul 16, 2019 10:53am
The short side remains favourable.....yes we got the hourly close below the 1410 handle.....BUT

Those two hourly candles wicks are showing us lots of indecision.... So we need to remain vigilant.....Hourly RSI has also started pointing down but the wicks need to be noted....
So trade with care......
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #51,003
  • Jul 16, 2019 11:00am Jul 16, 2019 11:00am
Quoting Vorenzd
To me this sudden upward momentum in the last hour looks like a bait for retailers of some sort before price continues downwards.
It seems like i was right. It was just a bait. Keeping short was a great decision. I've exited now at 1404.5.

There is a lot more downside potential,however i'll wait for Powell's speech to confirm this.
Through the light of enlightenment, darkness unveils the path of truth.
  • #51,004
  • Jul 16, 2019 11:01am Jul 16, 2019 11:01am
Just closed my shorts TP while i can.
Will plan to entry later on

Quoting MzansiObi
The short side remains favourable.....yes we got the hourly close below the 1410 handle.....BUT Those two hourly candles wicks are showing us lots of indecision.... So we need to remain vigilant.....Hourly RSI has also started pointing down but the wicks need to be noted.... So trade with care......
I think Bears can pull us further down, unless Powell can shoot that bear away
The Force is with me.. Im One With the Force..
  • #51,005
  • Jul 16, 2019 11:09am Jul 16, 2019 11:09am
I'm waiting for some things but I could go short more early did you see that it broke the triangle?
  • #51,006
  • Jul 16, 2019 11:16am Jul 16, 2019 11:16am
Quoting Marcieny
I'm waiting for some things but I could go short more early did you see that it broke the triangle?
It did princess however Mr Powell seems to be bring some effects on this movement soon, but seems like it will bring the price further down. *Finger crossed
The Force is with me.. Im One With the Force..
  • #51,007
  • Jul 16, 2019 12:10pm Jul 16, 2019 12:10pm
POWELL:

"But first-quarter growth was driven largely by net exports and inventories—two volatile spending categories that are typically not dependable indicators of ongoing momentum"

" FOMC participants have also raised concerns about a more prolonged shortfall in inflation below our 2 percent target. "

"Market-based measures of inflation compensation have shifted down, and some survey-based expectations measures are near the bottom of their historical ranges."

"We are carefully monitoring these developments and assessing their implications for the U.S economic outlook and inflation, and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion(...)"

"Average inflation rates for the other major advanced economies have declined by almost half, while the inflation rates of major emerging market economies are less than one-fifth of what they were. Indeed, with few exceptions, we are all facing lower rates of interest, growth, and inflation. In a number of countries, including the United States, these declines have been accompanied by strong labor markets and a much lower unemployment rate."

"I should also note, as is fitting given this event and this audience, that since the crisis policymakers are even more keenly aware of the relevance of global factors to our policies (...) Pursuing our domestic mandates in this new world requires that we understand the anticipated effects of these interconnections and incorporate them into our policy decisionmaking."


Essentialy, Powell is saying that even though US economic data is good, they'll have to act in order to open the path of cutting rates (make it easier for them ) to other central banks (mainly china whose economy is declining).
Through the light of enlightenment, darkness unveils the path of truth.
  • #51,008
  • Jul 16, 2019 12:24pm Jul 16, 2019 12:24pm
Phew nice upper move by Powell but somewhat it losing some rocker power to fly away. Thinking to go back down continued.
The Force is with me.. Im One With the Force..
  • #51,009
  • Jul 16, 2019 12:25pm Jul 16, 2019 12:25pm
3..2...1...
Trade fearless not careless...
Syed Mohsin Ali Profit This Month: -2,334
  • #51,010
  • Jul 16, 2019 12:26pm Jul 16, 2019 12:26pm
Quoting Vorenzd
POWELL: "But first-quarter growth was driven largely by net exports and inventories—two volatile spending categories that are typically not dependable indicators of ongoing momentum" " FOMC participants have also raised concerns about a more prolonged shortfall in inflation below our 2 percent target. " "Market-based measures of inflation compensation have shifted down, and some survey-based expectations measures are near the bottom of their historical ranges." "We are carefully monitoring these developments and assessing their implications for...
Thanks for the succinct summary.

The upcoming 25bps cut is a done deal at this point, what amazes me is how traders are pricing in almost a 30% chance of a 50bps cut.
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As it stands, gold will probably go down if they only cut by 25bps. That said, I've been hearing they might announce the end their balance sheet runoff at the next meeting. If that happens it should offset any disappointment a 25bps cut causes and give gold some upside.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #51,011
  • Edited 12:56pm Jul 16, 2019 12:43pm | Edited 12:56pm
Quoting MzansiObi
Took 1411.7.... Flat for now.... Looking to sell as high as 1418 again today but will wait and see what charts print post London open...... Morning Gang Gang
Quoting auricforecas
Nice! Keep it rollin, nothing like waking up into profit
We happy?

Hope you traded your plan!

NICE man, if you did.
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #51,012
  • Jul 16, 2019 2:23pm Jul 16, 2019 2:23pm
Quoting dweb
Gold, M1..I love these range candles. Stay Green {image}
Gold H4, Good night. stay green
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We err, and err, and err again, but less.
  • #51,013
  • Jul 16, 2019 2:52pm Jul 16, 2019 2:52pm
Hi all,

Glad I found this thread, trade XAU quite often so be good to bounce ideas off people more advanced than myself
I am but a small fish in a large pond
  • #51,014
  • Jul 16, 2019 3:05pm Jul 16, 2019 3:05pm
Quoting DCstar84
Hi all, Glad I found this thread, trade XAU quite often so be good to bounce ideas off people more advanced than myself
Welcome CDstar84! Lots of good traders and helpful discussions here. Looking forward to having you on board.
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We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
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  • #51,015
  • Jul 16, 2019 3:08pm Jul 16, 2019 3:08pm
Quoting DCstar84
Hi all, Glad I found this thread, trade XAU quite often so be good to bounce ideas off people more advanced than myself
Ur already in the oil family but ..
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #51,016
  • Edited 4:00pm Jul 16, 2019 3:31pm | Edited 4:00pm
This doesn't look like a buy, even in a parallel universe. I reckon we might get spikes for retreats to the broken trend line 1413 (max) area before continued fall, or it just zips down from here.
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  • #51,017
  • Jul 16, 2019 3:36pm Jul 16, 2019 3:36pm
Thanks for the welcome guys, good to see a familair face Ll.
I took a small long on the close of the last candle on the 1h trying to scalp a small amount on asian open
I am but a small fish in a large pond
  • #51,018
  • Jul 16, 2019 3:46pm Jul 16, 2019 3:46pm
Quoting Vorenzd
As you will notice some of this reports are more and some are less informative, i don't know exactly what you're looking for, but you can check that out and maybe you find something of interest. Hope that helps!
This is certainly helpful. Thank you very much, brother!
  • #51,019
  • Jul 16, 2019 4:02pm Jul 16, 2019 4:02pm
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #51,020
  • Jul 16, 2019 4:06pm Jul 16, 2019 4:06pm
Quoting Mitiblotch
This doesn't look like a buy, even in a parallel universe. I reckon we might get spikes for retreats to the broken trend line 1413 (max) area before continued fall, or it just zips down from here. {image}
I tend to agree with your outlook. Although I think we may need a trigger to see any significant moves. Nothing scheduled. Perhaps Asia might start selling when SHFE opens up in a few hours. If it breaks 1400, we are probably headed to at least 1390 area.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
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