Trading against the herd | Page 5 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Is Trading Against An FX Dealer A Crap Shoot? 5 replies

Who are you trading against? 2 replies

do big banks collect good trading systems and then move against us? 6 replies

Trading Against the Mass Strategy 8 replies

Trading against the majority 44 replies

Attachments: Trading against the herd
Exit Attachments

Trading against the herd

  • #81
  • Jul 9, 2019 6:01am Jul 9, 2019 6:01am
Quoting Vorenzd
{quote} I would agree with you on that, this is what i think: The herd usually tends to start following the trend when there is a reversal about to come, i don't know why, but retail traders get stressed too much and somehow manage to do the exact oposite of the market 90% of the time. I think it's just human psychology, most people think similary and get scared of the market at the same time. Thing is, you can profit by both following the trend and going against it, but the herd always tend to have some ideas about stop loss hunting, about market...
one thing i wander, people always say bankers do care of peanut from retailers. if so why bother to trap the retailers?
Be a spectator, not a player
  • #82
  • Jul 9, 2019 6:28am Jul 9, 2019 6:28am
Yesterday Deutsche Bank let 18.000 Traders go. Would you kick profitable traders out of your company? Maybe they are not as good as we think they are ;-)
  • #83
  • Jul 9, 2019 7:39am Jul 9, 2019 7:39am
Quoting wiserltz
{quote} one thing i wander, people always say bankers do care of peanut from retailers. if so why bother to trap the retailers?
@wiserltz

Let me explain this to you:

As a retail trader, liquidity is not a problem for you, you don't really think about liquidity. However when you are an institution with a huge capital liquidity is your biggest problem.

So lets make an fictive example:
we want to buy an equivalent of 1000 lots of NZD/JPY, we can't do this in one go, it will move the market too much, however the relevant department in the company has noticed that we are near a level where many traders have placed their stop loss (for example a support or resistance line). What the company would do is:

1.company would go in a counter position and push the price beyond the line thus triggering the stop losses and dropping/rising the price further

2.the company would close their counter position and open a position on the asset in it's originaly desired direction with a large order and move the market back in the other direction, the market would continue to move in the oposite direction suiting the company's position.

3. Retailers would get their stop losses triggered and wouldn't gain profits from the move they correctly predicted

This does not always occure, stop losses are important, don't forget to put them, these events don't happen that often, but they do happen. You can see them yourself.


You see, smart money DOES NOT care about retail investors, but rather their own interests, and if it's possible to get a better price by baiting a few retailers and triggering a few stop losses, then ofcourse we will do it.

It's not about trapping retailers, it's about securing yourself a better price.

Regards, Vorenzd.
Through the light of enlightenment, darkness unveils the path of truth.
  • #84
  • Jul 9, 2019 9:11am Jul 9, 2019 9:11am
Quoting thj79
Yesterday Deutsche Bank let 18.000 Traders go. Would you kick profitable traders out of your company? Maybe they are not as good as we think they are ;-)
Increases in autotrading
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #85
  • Jul 9, 2019 11:53am Jul 9, 2019 11:53am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Increases in autotrading
Yes I agree.
Also 'traders' nowadays in banks, mostly just execute orders and care for clients.
  • #86
  • Jul 9, 2019 11:58am Jul 9, 2019 11:58am
Hi b-ack

so your saying that forexfactory members are losers huh hahah just kidding
i like the concept. Can I ask you? How fast and often trade data update you know? thanks
  • #87
  • Jul 9, 2019 1:12pm Jul 9, 2019 1:12pm
69% of FF members are bullish cable..
If you want in on my experimental EA, PM me.
  • #88
  • Jul 9, 2019 1:23pm Jul 9, 2019 1:23pm
Quoting RegisMexes
69% of FF members are bullish cable..
let's see if they will have the courage to walk against the herd
  • #89
  • Jul 9, 2019 2:11pm Jul 9, 2019 2:11pm
According to myfxbook there are:

GBP/USD

Yesterday's close (New York) 39480.02 Lots long

Todays close 46116.18 lots long.

Plus 6,636.16 lots added today LONG

90% of 91,643 positions are long.

So retail clients do have enough postions for the big guys to just go the other way :-)
I will leave this thread alone though as no one believes me that this works and will always work, but doesnt it just make sense that if retail are 90% wrong MOST of the time to trade the other way and 90% of the time with the real trend?
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #90
  • Jul 9, 2019 2:51pm Jul 9, 2019 2:51pm
Quoting RegisMexes
69% of FF members are bullish cable..
And in the GBPUSD thread, we have the usual bullish punters saying we will see 1.26 in 2 days or we are 100% guaranteed to see 1.25 or more this week (assuming not talking retrospectively about Monday).

With 69% retail herd long and this suicidal chatter going on, seems we are ripe for another drop to below 1.24.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #91
  • Jul 9, 2019 3:05pm Jul 9, 2019 3:05pm
Quoting neilsdigest
According to myfxbook there are: GBP/USD Yesterday's close (New York) 39480.02 Lots long Todays close 46116.18 lots long. Plus 6,636.16 lots added today LONG 90% of 91,643 positions are long. So retail clients do have enough postions for the big guys to just go the other way :-) I will leave this thread alone though as no one believes me that this works and will always work, but doesnt it just make sense that if retail are 90% wrong MOST of the time to trade the other way and 90% of the time with the real trend?
Haha, I've been waiting for you to show up! Yep they are (or I should say some) are catching on.
Trade what "Is", not what "If".
  • #92
  • Jul 9, 2019 5:42pm Jul 9, 2019 5:42pm
Quoting Vorenzd
{quote} @wiserltz Let me explain this to you: As a retail trader, liquidity is not a problem for you, you don't really think about liquidity. However when you are an institution with a huge capital liquidity is your biggest problem. So lets make an fictive example: we want to buy an equivalent of 1000 lots of NZD/JPY, we can't do this in one go, it will move the market too much, however the relevant department in the company has noticed that we are near a level where many traders have placed their stop loss (for example a support or resistance line)....
Thanks very much for your contribution Vorenzd.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #93
  • Jul 9, 2019 5:45pm Jul 9, 2019 5:45pm
Quoting Liarg
Hi b-ack so your saying that forexfactory members are losers huh hahah just kidding i like the concept. Can I ask you? How fast and often trade data update you know? thanks
I really just watch the values at the end of each trading day, but they are updated during the day. Not sure how often.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #94
  • Jul 9, 2019 6:04pm Jul 9, 2019 6:04pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Thanks very much for your contribution Vorenzd.
My pleasure, I'm glad to have been of some help.
Through the light of enlightenment, darkness unveils the path of truth.
  • #95
  • Edited 8:19pm Jul 9, 2019 6:44pm | Edited 8:19pm
Quoting Vorenzd
{quote} @wiserltz Let me explain this to you: As a retail trader, liquidity is not a problem for you, you don't really think about liquidity. However when you are an institution with a huge capital liquidity is your biggest problem. So lets make an fictive example: we want to buy an equivalent of 1000 lots of NZD/JPY, we can't do this in one go, it will move the market too much, however the relevant department in the company has noticed that we are near a level where many traders have placed their stop loss (for example a support or resistance line)....
Thanks to clarify some misunderstanding.

Can I conclude: When retailers tend to long/short randomly, they will be ignored by institution; but when they line up for the same direction, like the case in GBPUSD, the lots are big enough and can not be ignored by institution, in other words, sometimes retailers can move the market? And majorty of the herd can be profitable sometimes.

Attached Image

When there are enough sardines, sharks & penguins work together; if not, sharks hunt for penguins. And, wounded shark becomes prey.
Be a spectator, not a player
  • #96
  • Jul 10, 2019 2:19am Jul 10, 2019 2:19am
Quoting wiserltz
{quote} {image} When there are enough sardines, sharks & penguins work together; if not, sharks hunt for penguins. And, wounded shark becomes prey.
I love this!! CIRCLE OF LIFE right there!!
Empty your mind and let the market guide you
  • #97
  • Jul 10, 2019 3:10am Jul 10, 2019 3:10am
Quoting wiserltz
{quote} Thanks to clarify some misunderstanding. Can I conclude: When retailers tend to long/short randomly, they will be ignored by institution; but when they line up for the same direction, like the case in GBPUSD, the lots are big enough and can not be ignored by institution, in other words, sometimes retailers can move the market? And majorty of the herd can be profitable sometimes. {image} When there are enough sardines, sharks & penguins work together; if not, sharks hunt for penguins. And, wounded shark becomes prey.
Great conclusion, i love the comparison!
Through the light of enlightenment, darkness unveils the path of truth.
  • #98
  • Jul 10, 2019 4:23am Jul 10, 2019 4:23am
Quoting wiserltz
{quote} Thanks to clarify some misunderstanding. Can I conclude: When retailers tend to long/short randomly, they will be ignored by institution; but when they line up for the same direction, like the case in GBPUSD, the lots are big enough and can not be ignored by institution, in other words, sometimes retailers can move the market? And majorty of the herd can be profitable sometimes. {image} When there are enough sardines, sharks & penguins work together; if not, sharks hunt for penguins. And, wounded shark becomes prey.
sardines' stagety is simple: following nearby sardines, so they feel safe and protectd, and get killed.
sharks' stagety, a little compilicated: don't let fishes run DEEP INTO THE SEA, keep them near the SURFACE, no panic, just eat all of them
Be a spectator, not a player
  • #99
  • Jul 10, 2019 10:09pm Jul 10, 2019 10:09pm
GBPUSD bulls now at 70%.

This bullish move can't last long...
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #100
  • Jul 10, 2019 10:45pm Jul 10, 2019 10:45pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
GBPUSD bulls now at 70%. This bullish move can't last long...
might get you wish on the 4hr chart mate
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
0 traders viewing now