Follow me on Zulutrade.. Pathfindernohedge

Trading online is exciting. It feels like playing a video game. But it is not a game.
It involves real money and interactions of buying and selling in the markets.
But it can be addicting. The thrill of it. Now I'm winning. Now I'm losing. That may be a lot of "fun."
But that is not the way to make money trading. That is the way to lose a lot of money trading.

My trading is actually boring. Well not really. Trading is never boring, but it is not a thrill ride.
If the signals are there according to my strategy I may trade once of twice in a day
during a narrow time frame of about three hours during the US market.
I only trade EURUSD. I know when I get in when I expect to get out.
If it doesn't go as planned, I have plan B. There is never a time when I have no exit strategy.

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The significance of volume:

It's always a serious decision whether to enter a trade of not. But today (7/5/19) is a tough one. At 8:30 am est there is a mountain-load of USD data being released. But it is Friday in the middle of the big July 4th holiday. The 4th, 5th 6th and 7th are vacation days for most people. Which means with 4 days free from work they travel.

So the market can fluctuate significantly on low trading participation, volatility, or spikes on prices due to small number of bids and asks.
Since it is Friday it could be possible to get stuck in a trade over Saturday and Sunday... depending on whether it is a buy or sell position there could be roll over fees.

The temptation is there to enter but if I pass on this I will live to trade another day when the market is more normally populated.
Here's the price action on the 1 min just before the data release. If I were to enter it would be a buy position to capture the rebound and if there is trending I could get caught in it until Monday and there would be roll over fees and big drawdown.
It is just the unpredictable nature of the trading environment that makes me hesitate. Not enough participation. Low volume.
It looked like the second screen shot a few minutes after the data.
should I should I not?

My other proprietary indicator (not shown) was saying enter buy. MACD said buy. since it is the 1 minute chart the most I would look for would be 10 pips.

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I decided to enter a buy and look for 10 pips but settled for 6.4 pips and that's it for today. Too risky with a big holiday weekend Friday and low market participation.

It's Monday after a major holiday. There is no data release. The markets are sideways. It is almost 11 am est, my cut off time for entering a trade. No trade today.

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Attached Images (click to enlarge)

The significance of data release and FED statements.

These can be powerful drivers for price action. Since my strategy is to catch the rebound on short term trends I pay special attention to these news events. It is better for me to wait a few minutes after the announcement.

A lot of times especially on the 1 minute chart a big move in a particular direction is not the actual trend. Rather it is stops being taken out and right after that big move the price action changes direction and moves in the direction of the actual trend. This is actually very good for me.

But getting caught in a strong trend means I will take on more positions in the opposite direction of the trend and carry significant drawdown until the inevitable retracing begins. Not something I like to do. But it is Plan B. and from time to time I find myself inn that situation.

This is the news event scheduled for release in about 10 minutes. The market is waiting.

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Looks like Powell's statement was a "nothing burger"
Next event to consider for moving price action is 9:30 est (30 mins from now) when the stock market opens in US.

No trade yesterday. Maybe no trade today. That's alright... If the conditions aren't right...no trade.

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It's Weds and the FED head Powell has made statements to Congress at 8:30 am. There will be a release of the FED minutes later this afternoon. It is now 10 am and the big initial move in price has played out.

There is a gap up and such gaps are always filled by a retrace. Considering this i have entered a sell looking for 8 to 10 pips. If the gap doesn't fill now within the next little while and prices continue to trend I will enter again with a take profit just bellow the first entry for a net gain.

I use a proprietary indicator also. Not shown.

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The progress on the trade posted a few minutes ago...

I entered short because of the gap up .
Now also a MACD divergence has formed to further confirm the short position is good.

I use a proprietary indicator also. Not shown.
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Extra added risk was that the FED minutes will be released this after noon. Powell spoke this morning, but there is more today this afternoon. I accepted the extra risk and entered short. Now prices have gone higher and I have entered short again to try to capture a net gain. I could get stuck in the trade for a while until the trending stops and a retrace starts. I can enter up to 6 positions. But I will wait. It's a lot of drawdown to carry.

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Result of the trade was a small net loss. I knew there was an extra level of risk because of FED speak. But not all trades are winners. and I will live to trade again with a small loss.
+2.8 and -18.0 = -15.2 net loss pips.

By holding until the end of the day I was able to capture .3 interest on the roll over...

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Good thing I exited when I did.
The price action never did come back.

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Trading with $500 to start. Another successful trade. Thank you. Although it was intense. It's always wild on FED speak days.

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A great stress reliever is practicing in a simulator.
FX Blue has two versions.
One for MT4 and one for MT5
I use MT5 to practice. I practice everyday. Even on weekends when the markets are not open.
https://www.fxblue.com/appstore/c9/trading-simulators

Here's a screen shot of the MT5 simulator platform with my template. Really nice.
The simpler the chart is the better. The tendency is to load a chart up with indicators, trend lines, whatever....
The chart can get so cluttered you can't even see the price action. Indicators and moving averages and just about everything else are all lagging indicators. They measure what has already happened. From that we can try to guess what will happen next. but it is all probability, nothing is certain and nothing is set in stone. My strategy has a about a 72% success rate. That is fantastic, really.

It comes down to risk management, position sizing, calculating for net gain, time of day, news events. There is actually a lot to consider.
Success is connected very intimately with the art of taking a loss. And moving on.
Knowing when to get out is just as important as knowing when to get in.

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Let's see how this one goes. US data release at 8:30 am est.
Entered long looking for 10 pips. Bidding took prices down, Entered long again moving tp lower to just above the first entry for a small gain and looking for about 10 pips net gain.

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About 1 hour later just before London closes for the weekend...
Got it. Thank you.
Can't stress enough how significant time of day and market hours are.
I set my sights and goal and got it.
Is it going higher, probably. So what.

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Entered buy EURUSD at US market open. No data release scheduled and no significant news. Entered another buy about an hour later as prices dropped a little looking to capture a retrace for net gain 10 pips.
There was a clear channel visible on the 30 minutes.

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By 4pm est and the close of the US market the price action was stuck going sideways. Closed for a small loss rather than stay in and get charged for the roll over plus being subject to the uncertainties in the Asian markets.


By 4pm est and the close of the US market the price action was stuck going sideways. Closed for a small loss rather than stay in and get charged for the roll over plus being subject to the uncertainties in the Asian markets.

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US retail sales data release at 8:30. There was a significant sell off EURUSD London market. Could be nice set up for catching a rebound with a buy order. Looking for the usual 10 pips. But will definitely wait until the data release. If I capture the 10 pips each day that is perfect.

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Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Ok entered a buy. Looking for 10 pips

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Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I always flip through the time frames. I am trading on the 1 minute but checking the 5 min is very helpful.Like here there is a divergence in macd on the 5 min which gives some reassurance that my position is placed in the right direction.

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