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Trading against the herd

  • #41
  • Jul 6, 2019 7:04am Jul 6, 2019 7:04am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} I agree 100%. I find the interaction is more to break boredom, not financially beneficial.
Agree 100%.
  • #42
  • Edited 3:39pm Jul 6, 2019 7:24am | Edited 3:39pm
Quoting mrgreen
Client sentiment is available on various sites. One can compare it across multiple brokers to confirm. IG Client sentiment for example July 4: GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 78.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.74 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since May 06 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29202; price has moved 2.6% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 5.0% higher than yesterday and 18.0% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 9.6% lower than yesterday and 25.6%...
Thanks very much for the info Mrgreen much appreciated
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #43
  • Edited Jul 7, 2019 12:20am Jul 6, 2019 11:12am | Edited Jul 7, 2019 12:20am
The herd's positioning is usually a decent confirming (reverse) indicator although the few times when they are right can certainly sow doubt in the mind of the trader using an un-trusted system.

A theory that needs testing:
Even better than trading against the gen pop is trading against the 'sell-side' industry experts as they seem to be worse than random. I hesitate to say intentionally misleading, but I don't have any other hypothesis.

Here is an early examination of FXStreet's 'selected leading experts'. It was more interesting when they broke this poll down per expert, but the average opinions are still possibly revelatory. Do these people get paid and what do they get paid for, as it certainly isn't anticipating the future direction of FX prices. I will eventually get around to testing the bank's public forecasts, as they might be an even better reverse indicator.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 70 KB

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing
  • #44
  • Jul 6, 2019 11:57am Jul 6, 2019 11:57am
Quoting acetrader
Mrgreen, Would you suggest some other sources for this info other than this site? Thank you for any shared.
a google search for: forex client sentiment
result's in several sites, with some strategies on usage of sentiment.

DailyFX has the IG Client sentiment, sign up to view a more complete listing than the default list that is avail on the non-signup site. Oanda has a 'demo acct' listing, if you are a client of theirs you can login to view the live accounts sentiment.
In trading, there is no bullshit. You either make money or you don't.
  • #45
  • Jul 6, 2019 1:04pm Jul 6, 2019 1:04pm
This site aggregates sentiment from lots of different sources, really useful for this method of trading: https://fxssi.com/tools/current-ratio
  • #46
  • Jul 6, 2019 3:39pm Jul 6, 2019 3:39pm
Quoting clemmo17
The herd's positioning is usually a decent confirming indicator although the few times when they are right can certainly sow doubt in the mind of the trader using an un-trusted system. A theory that needs testing: Even better than trading against the gen pop is trading against the 'sell-side' industry experts as they seem to be worse than random. I hesitate to say intentionally misleading, but I don't have any other hypothesis. Here is an early examination of FXStreet's 'selected leading experts'. It was more interesting when they broke this poll...
Thanks very much for this.
Years ago, I used to watch bank forecasts for GBPUSD published on this site. They were the ultimate contraindicated (worse than the herd) and I would constantly go on and on about the dubious nature of their publications.

I don't see so many publications of that sort published here anymore...
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #47
  • Jul 6, 2019 3:42pm Jul 6, 2019 3:42pm
GBPUSD bullish sentiment currently at 68%.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #48
  • Jul 6, 2019 4:28pm Jul 6, 2019 4:28pm
Quoting clemmo17
The herd's positioning is usually a decent confirming indicator although the few times when they are right can certainly sow doubt in the mind of the trader using an un-trusted system. A theory that needs testing: Even better than trading against the gen pop is trading against the 'sell-side' industry experts as they seem to be worse than random. I hesitate to say intentionally misleading, but I don't have any other hypothesis. Here is an early examination of FXStreet's 'selected leading experts'. It was more interesting when they broke this poll...
I only look at FXstreet now when I'm really, really bored, and I stay there for about 1min. I try to get enthused about their fence sitting arguments pros and cons of bulls and bears but I lose interest fast..
  • #49
  • Jul 6, 2019 5:32pm Jul 6, 2019 5:32pm
Currently USDCHF's sentiment is near zero (51 short, 49 long)and at current price it is near a very good S/R level.
The OP says as soon as it passes 0 go against the herd, in this case I guess we are buying then.

What would you do? Buy or sell?

What other indicator do u use that tells you to buy this?
  • #50
  • Jul 6, 2019 5:35pm Jul 6, 2019 5:35pm
Quoting OutThere
Currently USDCHF's sentiment is near zero (51 short, 49 long)and at current price it is near a very good S/R level. The OP says as soon as it passes 0 go against the herd, in this case I guess we are buying then. What would you do? Buy or sell? What other indicator do u use that tells you to buy this?
Personally, I only watch GBPUSD as it's the only pair I trade.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #51
  • Jul 6, 2019 5:39pm Jul 6, 2019 5:39pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Personally, I only watch GBPUSD as it's the only pair I trade.
GBPUSD hasn't been 50/50 since May 7. If you go by this method, I guess you are a long term trader.
  • #52
  • Jul 6, 2019 5:48pm Jul 6, 2019 5:48pm
Attached Image


This give a better idea
  • #53
  • Jul 6, 2019 5:55pm Jul 6, 2019 5:55pm
Inserted Video
  • #54
  • Jul 6, 2019 5:57pm Jul 6, 2019 5:57pm
Quoting OutThere
{quote} GBPUSD hasn't been 50/50 since May 7. If you go by this method, I guess you are a long term trader.
That I am, but I don't use this method on my account, this is an experiment based on my observations over the years.

I do like to see 65+% long when I am short though
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #55
  • Jul 6, 2019 5:59pm Jul 6, 2019 5:59pm
Quoting mixedbags
{image} This give a better idea
Awesome, thank you
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #56
  • Jul 6, 2019 7:34pm Jul 6, 2019 7:34pm
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=930086

..sama concept.extract data from myfxbook...
Close Trade At Profit
  • #57
  • Jul 6, 2019 7:50pm Jul 6, 2019 7:50pm
Quoting mixedbags
{image} This give a better idea
base on this chart only, market is entering money contest mode, buyers average down, risk increasing, range down. or suddenly down, is high possibility.
Be a spectator, not a player
  • #58
  • Jul 6, 2019 7:58pm Jul 6, 2019 7:58pm
Quoting wiserltz
{quote} base on this chart only, market is entering money contest mode, buyers average down, risk increasing, range down. or suddenly down, is high possibility.
Some risk taker will sneak in and take some

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 0fL1uFc.png Size: 33 KB


That gray dot look familiar to you
  • #59
  • Jul 6, 2019 9:05pm Jul 6, 2019 9:05pm
Quoting mixedbags
{quote} Some risk taker will sneak in and take some {image} That gray dot look familiar to you
quote=Ill-b-back;12369093]{quote} That I am, but I don't use this method on my account, this is an experiment based on my observations over the years. I do like to see 65+% long when I am short though [/quote]
as i understood, 65% means. the public is bullish, more money is waiting, when price drop they tend to average down, so short is a safer choice, if pa supports the drop
Be a spectator, not a player
  • #60
  • Jul 6, 2019 9:15pm Jul 6, 2019 9:15pm
Quoting wiserltz
{quote} quote=Ill-b-back;12369093]{quote} That I am, but I don't use this method on my account, this is an experiment based on my observations over the years. I do like to see 65+% long when I am short though
as i understood, 65% means. the public is bullish, more money is waiting, when price drop they tend to average down, so short is a safer choice, if pa supports the drop[/quote]


I'm thinking we may see some movement back into 1.26xx area before the next leg down.
Come with me if you want to live....
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