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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #4,041
  • Jul 6, 2019 7:02am Jul 6, 2019 7:02am
What a very interesting sentence in Jazz's post no. 4039.

'it can be hard to get rid of 'old behavior' and to get the trader mindset correct.'

How true is that? We look at what the chart is telling us but we don't believe it or read it correctly because that's not how we have traded in the past. We need to erase the past from our minds and come to this method of trading from Alan's perspective.

Do you know what is holding me back from being profitable (and I bet most traders here?) Having the inability to get out of a losing trade. Saying to yourself the stop will be hit as its a bit close so I'll move it. Lesson to me. I must learn to use and understand tight stops. Plus, I must get out early from ALL losing trades.
  • #4,042
  • Jul 6, 2019 7:36am Jul 6, 2019 7:36am
My bias before 108 was up because of M5 EMA making HH and HL. Also H1 EMA went flat and possibly would turn up. So I went Long which ended in a bit of loss.
Then I had to go to the hospital so I missed out the best opportunities. I came home with a distracted mindset, I thereby violated my rules as soon as I started trading again. I messed up my day old behavior, bad analyses.
But hey, the losses aren't big compared to the winners from the days before because I get my stops tight and entries quick, so no worries at all. I just need to refocus on Monday.
What I did now is checking the charts in hindsight. What did I do wrong and what opportunities did I miss?
I advise doing the same.
In the picture I post here, I think I get the analyses straight enough.
As long as we trade below the EMA, all the tops in the fast RSI gave nice entries short.

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Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #4,043
  • Jul 6, 2019 7:40am Jul 6, 2019 7:40am
Quoting mayflower
What a very interesting sentence in Jazz's post no. 4039. 'it can be hard to get rid of 'old behavior' and to get the trader mindset correct.' How true is that? We look at what the chart is telling us but we don't believe it or read it correctly because that's not how we have traded in the past. We need to erase the past from our minds and come to this method of trading from Alan's perspective. Do you know what is holding me back from being profitable (and I bet most traders here?) Having the inability to get out of a losing trade. Saying to yourself...
For me, I do "know" my weakness, when a trend runs for too long or bull/bear power goes too "extreme", I start to focus on reversal signal, and I dont have confidence to join the trend because I worry that I buy at the top or I short at the bottom. So basically, I can not really trade a strong trend. That's why I want to listen from others how they think and I change the way I think.
  • #4,044
  • Jul 6, 2019 7:46am Jul 6, 2019 7:46am
Quoting luckyvictor
{quote} ...I do use the word "usually" which means divergence not necessarily return price to EMA.
now your number 6) is worded correctly.
return to!
And not: across
Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #4,045
  • Jul 6, 2019 8:11am Jul 6, 2019 8:11am
Quoting Jazz1964
My bias before 108 was up because of M5 EMA making HH and HL. Also H1 EMA went flat and possibly would turn up. So I went Long which ended in a bit of loss. Then I had to go to the hospital so I missed out the best opportunities. I came home with a distracted mindset, I thereby violated my rules as soon as I started trading again. I messed up my day old behavior, bad analyses. But hey, the losses aren't big compared to the winners from the days before because I get my stops tight and entries quick, so no worries at all. I just need to refocus...
I do checking everyday as well, UK time after 10pm, just find it very very easy to analyze the day after it happened, I can spot all opportunity and make logical decision. However trading in real time during time day is different story....

So how do you entry? Do you entry quick?
  • #4,046
  • Jul 6, 2019 8:31am Jul 6, 2019 8:31am
Quoting luckyvictor
{quote} So how do you entry? Do you entry quick?
Sure quick. that's important to get the stops tight and Tp's bigger.
It can be a 2 bar test,
at the close plotting the bar a reversed color,
HD price coming back behind the close of the reference bar.
close to, or exact to the touch of a zoo point with div

Give yourself time to build experience.
Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #4,047
  • Jul 6, 2019 8:42am Jul 6, 2019 8:42am
Quoting Jazz1964
{quote} Sure quick. that's important to get the stops tight and Tp's bigger. It can be a 2 bar test, at the close plotting the bar a reversed color, HD price coming back behind the close of the reference bar. close to, or exact to the touch of a zoo point with div Give yourself time to build experience.
at the close plotting the bar a reversed color？ Sorry may I ask you to explain a little more please?

Do you enter using M1 frame?
  • #4,048
  • Jul 6, 2019 8:52am Jul 6, 2019 8:52am
Quoting luckyvictor
{quote} at the close plotting the bar a reversed color？ Sorry may I ask you to explain a little more please? Do you enter using M1 frame?
I meant when price went up I wait until I see the first bar closed red.
Yes also on M1 PA.
But now I stop on this matter, cannot hold your hand, sorry. Experience buddy, experience. You read Alan writing to get in quick, so go for that. He even wrote we can get several losses in a row before we enter the correct move (that's why his multi positions make so much sense).
Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #4,049
  • Jul 6, 2019 8:54am Jul 6, 2019 8:54am
Quoting Jazz1964
My bias before 108 was up because of M5 EMA making HH and HL. Also H1 EMA went flat and possibly would turn up. So I went Long which ended in a bit of loss. Then I had to go to the hospital so I missed out the best opportunities. I came home with a distracted mindset, I thereby violated my rules as soon as I started trading again. I messed up my day old behavior, bad analyses. But hey, the losses aren't big compared to the winners from the days before because I get my stops tight and entries quick, so no worries at all. I just need to refocus...
Btw, how would you analyze the rest of the day? Would you see the divergence that I saw in post 4026(again seeing/identifying and taking action is two different things)?
  • #4,050
  • Jul 6, 2019 8:57am Jul 6, 2019 8:57am
Quoting Jazz1964
{quote} I meant when price went up I wait until I see the first bar closed red. Yes also on M1 PA. But now I stop on this matter, cannot hold your hand, sorry. Experience buddy, experience. You read Alan writing to get in quick, so go for that. He even wrote we can get several losses in a row before we enter the correct move (that's why his multi positions make so much sense).
I can accept many losses, no system is prefect, that's why I focus on understanding the thinking correctly and act accordingly, the result is pretty much market driven.
  • #4,051
  • Jul 6, 2019 9:17am Jul 6, 2019 9:17am
Quoting luckyvictor
{quote} Btw, how would you analyze the rest of the day?
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Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #4,052
  • Jul 6, 2019 9:44am Jul 6, 2019 9:44am
Quoting Jazz1964
{quote} {image}
What message does the long green line drawn on top of the slow RSI give please?

Sorry I should answer myself, it should be a long (across time) price to rsi divergence.

I would just not be able to see it during real time trading
  • #4,053
  • Jul 6, 2019 9:47am Jul 6, 2019 9:47am
Quoting luckyvictor
{quote} Would you see the divergence that I saw in post 4026(again seeing/identifying and taking action is two different things)?
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Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #4,054
  • Jul 6, 2019 10:01am Jul 6, 2019 10:01am
Quoting Jazz1964
{quote} {image}
Just love what u said "short da bitch"!

But can we just reverse our long failed trade to short? Is there any more reason or signal (with reason) on the chart to support our short decision at that time?
  • #4,055
  • Jul 6, 2019 10:12am Jul 6, 2019 10:12am
Quoting luckyvictor
{quote} Just love what u said "short da bitch"! But can we just reverse our long failed trade to short? Is there any more reason or signal (with reason) on the chart to support our short decision at that time?
Never ending questioning enjoy weekend
Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #4,056
  • Jul 6, 2019 10:24am Jul 6, 2019 10:24am
Quoting Jazz1964
{quote} Never ending questioning enjoy weekend
Sorry, I was just chairing the opportunity to ask questions.

Do appreciate you have spent the afternoon sharing your experience and answering my questions.

Enjoy your weekend as well
  • #4,057
  • Jul 6, 2019 8:10pm Jul 6, 2019 8:10pm
Quoting luckyvictor
{quote} What is the zoo point that you usually take from higher TF? I can list 4 only, extreme rsi, divergence, price at average swing high/low, price at 26 EMA
I look for the 4 divergences, ab=cd retracements entries, pivot passes on support/ resistance, retesting of support/ resistance, HH or LL failure or success in relation to the ema direction. Nothing that hasn't already been mentioned by Alan. I'm not always getting in all the time at the exact zoo point on the higher time frames but it gives me reference of where price might go. Then I look for entries on the 5m and 1m that take me to that direction.
  • #4,058
  • Jul 7, 2019 3:32am Jul 7, 2019 3:32am
Quoting MrMagnet
{quote} I look for the 4 divergences, ab=cd retracements entries, pivot passes on support/ resistance, retesting of support/ resistance, HH or LL failure or success in relation to the ema direction. Nothing that hasn't already been mentioned by Alan. I'm not always getting in all the time at the exact zoo point on the higher time frames but it gives me reference of where price might go. Then I look for entries on the 5m and 1m that take me to that direction.
Thanks for your sharing.

Actually, how soon can you tell if the price fall to make HH or LL?

I m super late, only when the opposite is done, make a success, refering back in history, then i know that HH/LL failed.
  • #4,059
  • Jul 7, 2019 6:13am Jul 7, 2019 6:13am
Quoting luckyvictor
{quote} Thanks for your sharing. Actually, how soon can you tell if the price fall to make HH or LL? I m super late, only when the opposite is done, make a success, refering back in history, then i know that HH/LL failed.
That depends on volatility at the time. Only 3 things ever happen when you enter. . You get stopped out, you get stopped out after moving your stop to break even or in profit somewhat or your trade goes where you thought it was going to go and you close the trade. How long that takes is anyone's guess. If you have no expectations of how long it takes you will never be disappointed.
  • #4,060
  • Jul 7, 2019 6:24am Jul 7, 2019 6:24am
Quoting Jazz1964
{quote} Trading is one of the toughest jobs in the world. Alan's method makes a lot clear and closest possible to "easy". I understand Mike fully when he writes it took him months to get there. And if it's not about to get the understanding correct, it can be hard to get rid of 'old behavior' and to get the trader mindset correct. Success = knowledge + experience + hard work. Plus prolly a few things on top of that.
100% agree.
Even with prior trading experience, trading a new method takes time to master, one needs time to study the material, put it into practice, and then try to internalize it all. For those interested in psychology, the hierarchy of competence comes to mind. This model of the learning process shows 4 stages of competence, from newbie to an experienced master (or from unconscious incompetence to unconscious competence as the model formulates it).

So after a few months of learning and trading, even when we have the right analysis, old habits can come into play and stupid mistakes are done. Cause we have not internalized it all yet, we are at the conscious competence level still. But the good news is that to get to the unconscious competence stage is not hard, it just takes time and practice.
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