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Trading against the herd

  • #21
  • Jul 5, 2019 5:45pm Jul 5, 2019 5:45pm
Quoting eyeball
The unstated implication of your argument is that the majority of traders are losers consequently , by doing the opposite (buying when they are selling and vice-versa) the majority of your trades will be winners.The problem with that seemingly logical hypothesis is that the losers are entries that are essentially random and their losing outcomes are a result of random selection rather than anything otherwise and, therefore your opposite position will also be a random entry with the same kind of consequential result (losing),if not sooner than positively...
See above (my post 18) ^^^
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #22
  • Jul 5, 2019 5:48pm Jul 5, 2019 5:48pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} "Fooled by randomness". All I know, is the vast majority of the time (based on published live stats from the "trades" section for GBPUSD), when the percentage of longs is above 50%, the pair is bearish. The opposite for when shorts are above 50%. This is an experiment only, one I have been considering for quite a while. When it come to trading and money, opinions and thoughts come a distant 2nd to outcomes. Hence I will be interested in the outcome....
No probs with testing hypothesis. We should all do it.
  • #23
  • Jul 5, 2019 5:56pm Jul 5, 2019 5:56pm
Quoting mikeeating
I don't disagree with your thread, but I also think there is a lack of successful traders that show transparency in real time. I realise that no-one is obliged to do so, but really, is it actually fair we belittle the losers continually when many red member's often never show real time live manual trades? I think the only person I really see do this is Davit and his thread, however I don't browse as much anymore Just my 2 cents
Yes, I realise it is belittling, but the title is just some fun for me in an adult environment.

It is also born out of frustration when I see the same thing time and time again on the GBPUSD thread.
When PA is bearish, the buyers come out in force with their posts. The opposite when bullish. If the outcomes were usually positive, and backed up with reasons, it would be awesome.

But alas, it's not what I have observed.

Anyway, I will do this either with a demo account or just with paper to observe the outcome....
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #24
  • Jul 5, 2019 6:20pm Jul 5, 2019 6:20pm
Stats and chart.

Going from January to today...

Red lines show when majority are bearish (on a daily view).
Blue lines show when majority are bullish (on a daily view)

The coloured are gets very choppy with positions and looks very messy.
You can fill it in with positional lines if you like.

https://www.forexfactory.com/trades....ions-details=1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDDaily.png Size: 43 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #25
  • Jul 5, 2019 6:33pm Jul 5, 2019 6:33pm
Now the opposite of the herd....

From January to today.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDDaily1.png Size: 42 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #26
  • Jul 5, 2019 7:15pm Jul 5, 2019 7:15pm
Ill-b-back, This is interesting for sure. I was trying to sarcastic & funny in my previous post, but not sarcastic at you. Your theory will most likely apply across the board on all pairs & any instrument that can be traded. The masses will be incorrect more times than not hence the 90 - 95% losing traders that we always here about. Here is one trader that will take notice of this next week. You are thinking outside of the box Sir. Btw..NO indicator needed for sure on this idea.
  • #27
  • Jul 5, 2019 7:22pm Jul 5, 2019 7:22pm
Quoting acetrader
Ill-b-back, This is interesting for sure. I was trying to sarcastic & funny in my previous post, but not sarcastic at you. Your theory will most likely apply across the board on all pairs & any instrument that can be traded. The masses will be incorrect more times than not hence the 90 - 95% losing traders that we always here about. Here is one trader that will take notice of this next week. You are thinking outside of the box Sir. Btw..NO indicator needed for sure on this idea.
Hi Acetrader,
yes I realise, hence my response and emoji

All across it.

I will change title of thread (if I can).
While it was just me having fun, it's not very nice.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #28
  • Jul 5, 2019 7:24pm Jul 5, 2019 7:24pm
There we go, title changed.

I try to live up to my values, but I let myself down repeatedly in this place.

Not making a good example of myself in Cable thread unfortunately.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #29
  • Jul 5, 2019 7:27pm Jul 5, 2019 7:27pm
Client sentiment is available on various sites. One can compare it across multiple brokers to confirm. IG Client sentiment for example
July 4:
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 78.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.74 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since May 06 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29202; price has moved 2.6% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 5.0% higher than yesterday and 18.0% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 9.6% lower than yesterday and 25.6% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger GBPUSD-bearish contrarian trading bias.
In trading, there is no bullshit. You either make money or you don't.
  • #30
  • Jul 5, 2019 7:38pm Jul 5, 2019 7:38pm
Ill-b-back, More evidence to strongly support your theory. The numbers speak volumes. Thank you mrgreen.
  • #31
  • Jul 5, 2019 7:41pm Jul 5, 2019 7:41pm
Probably not enough volume in retail to matter
ex nihilo
  • #32
  • Jul 5, 2019 7:50pm Jul 5, 2019 7:50pm
We all fall short at times. No harm. You made amends. Good thought provoking thread.
  • #33
  • Jul 5, 2019 10:28pm Jul 5, 2019 10:28pm
Quoting Oc6oph
Probably not enough volume in retail to matter
This has no relationship to volume, though the 'sample size' if that is what you mean could be a concern, which is why one should compare across several sites It has to do w/ the metagame of trading.

I believe it is related to this aspect of traders:

“One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth—or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world.”
― Edwin Lefèvre, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
In trading, there is no bullshit. You either make money or you don't.
  • #34
  • Jul 5, 2019 10:37pm Jul 5, 2019 10:37pm
Quoting mrgreen
{quote} This has no relationship to volume, though the 'sample size' if that is what you mean could be a concern, which is why one should compare across several sites It has to do w/ the metagame of trading. I believe it is related to this aspect of traders: “One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth—or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world.” ― Edwin Lefèvre, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
Those eighths are indeed
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #35
  • Jul 5, 2019 10:45pm Jul 5, 2019 10:45pm
if some want more info about contrarian, read master neilsdigest´s contributions here in FF
Humble & Kalcker CLO2 = Covid killer
  • #36
  • Jul 6, 2019 12:30am Jul 6, 2019 12:30am
I'm having a trading break atm ( still visiting FF for some light engagement where possible). I had the same thought as "I'll be back" regarding making contrarian trades to FF trading page. I never pursued it as a system... I would add that on trading days I have added the rule to NOT LOOK at the interactive trading threads for my pairs, nor to look at what the majority of traders are doing on the trades page, as it has more often than not adversely affected my trading day by creating doubt in my trading plan. A trader needs their own plan, opinion ,execution. End of story. Let's be honest, when it comes to trying to trade seriously, on the day, in the moment , who really finds concurrent interaction with FF benificial (unless it's the news feed)???
  • #37
  • Jul 6, 2019 12:36am Jul 6, 2019 12:36am
Quoting Ill-b-back
Stats and chart. Going from January to today... Red lines show when majority are bearish (on a daily view). Blue lines show when majority are bullish (on a daily view) The coloured are gets very choppy with positions and looks very messy. You can fill it in with positional lines if you like. https://www.forexfactory.com/trades....ions-details=1 {image}
Great pic. ( although i will say I'm on my phone and can't zoom in on detail on the chart plus the FF update with all the ads are immensely irritating) I can understand the bear bias with the first red line , looks like a retracement ready to fall again, and similar but opposite with the last blue line on the right. Interesting. I use smaller TF but have been stung at similar crossroads where a retracement is actually a reversal etc. I really do think MM is the ultimate key.
  • #38
  • Jul 6, 2019 1:40am Jul 6, 2019 1:40am
Quoting hellsbells
I'm having a trading break atm ( still visiting FF for some light engagement where possible). I had the same thought as "I'll be back" regarding making contrarian trades to FF trading page. I never pursued it as a system... I would add that on trading days I have added the rule to NOT LOOK at the interactive trading threads for my pairs, nor to look at what the majority of traders are doing on the trades page, as it has more often than not adversely affected my trading day by creating doubt in my trading plan. A trader needs their own plan, opinion...
I agree 100%. I find the interaction is more to break boredom, not financially beneficial.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #39
  • Jul 6, 2019 1:41am Jul 6, 2019 1:41am
Quoting hellsbells
{quote} Great pic. ( although i will say I'm on my phone and can't zoom in on detail on the chart plus the FF update with all the ads are immensely irritating) I can understand the bear bias with the first red line , looks like a retracement ready to fall again, and similar but opposite with the last blue line on the right. Interesting. I use smaller TF but have been stung at similar crossroads where a retracement is actually a reversal etc. I really do think MM is the ultimate key.
I think I will use arrows in future, the lines cover the bars and look messy.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #40
  • Jul 6, 2019 7:03am Jul 6, 2019 7:03am
Mrgreen, Would you suggest some other sources for this info other than this site? Thank you for any shared.
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