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The Swamp

  • #37,681
  • Jul 5, 2019 12:21pm Jul 5, 2019 12:21pm
Quoting Boulder
last trade today,,scalp a short here 1222... for 10 pips,,,in my oanda accounts... if not TP out.. its ok... will hold for triple swap in oranda for the weekend..
I see some st R 2517/27/29 on gbp. I dont overlook a second bear wave to settle the day. I think it has more LT drop potential than eu..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #37,682
  • Jul 5, 2019 12:31pm Jul 5, 2019 12:31pm
wow.. only US here positive yield... what incentive to short dollar...
( I just post his statistics... no intention to share his view )
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  • #37,683
  • Jul 5, 2019 12:37pm Jul 5, 2019 12:37pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I see some st R 2517/27/29 on gbp. I dont overlook a second bear wave to settle the day. I think it has more LT drop potential than eu..
gbp day is at 2561, pa broke free today. But the day is still open. The week freshly bearish. The month level is 1496.. I think 2561 break will hold. The month one needs some respect. But eventually I think it will fall with GB fundies.. Leaving ez and all. I froze further positions.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #37,684
  • Jul 5, 2019 2:53pm Jul 5, 2019 2:53pm
interesting...
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  • #37,685
  • Jul 5, 2019 3:42pm Jul 5, 2019 3:42pm
Quoting jaylovin
try one more at 1216

Out +10
  • #37,686
  • Jul 5, 2019 4:43pm Jul 5, 2019 4:43pm
Quoting Boulder
interesting... {image}
wow... ok interesting
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #37,687
  • Edited 4:45pm Jul 6, 2019 10:04am | Edited 4:45pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} gbp day is at 2561, pa broke free today. But the day is still open. The week freshly bearish. The month level is 1496.. I think 2561 break will hold. The month one needs some respect. But eventually I think it will fall with GB fundies.. Leaving ez and all. I froze further positions.
I have the similar thought as this forecast... ,,, I like to share two points from FX street analysis

point #1: about Powell testify next week.
Whether the pair could break lower will depend solely on Powell. Will the Fed’s head maintain its confident outlook and down talk chances of aggressive rate cuts? Will he succumb to Trump’s pressure, to cut rates further? The first scenario seems more likely than the second one.

point #2 about Eur/Usd technical outlook
the pair has broken below the 61.8% retracement of its latest daily advance at around 1.1270, now poised to test the base of the range at 1.1142. A break below this last exposes the yearly low at 1.1106, while beyond this last, an approach to the 1.1000 figure is on the cards for the next few days.

https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eu...paign=analysis
  • #37,688
  • Jul 7, 2019 8:13am Jul 7, 2019 8:13am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} gbp day is at 2561, pa broke free today. But the day is still open. The week freshly bearish. The month level is 1496.. I think 2561 break will hold. The month one needs some respect. But eventually I think it will fall with GB fundies.. Leaving ez and all. I froze further positions.
typo, the month level is 2496. Friday it did dip below 2496. The day did close below 2561. So now the day and week are bearish. The only thing supporting gbp is 2496 +- 50 pips. The month may flip, but we won't know until it closes in 3 weeks. The euro has the same situation month wise, regarding 1145.9. Pa still may range until these are taken out with a month close. This still may be a summer range on eu 11xx/upper 13xx/lower14xx. approx 250 pip range. I think eventually these month supports will break. I wouldn't have a full load of shorts near these month supports. Since theses supports can cause the 250 pip rejection. A lighter load near these seems to be warranted. The eu has a daily support at 1183. A day close below 1183 may allow a test of 1145 and more.. But pa still has 3 weeks to change its mind. I say be careful with overloading a short w/o proper MM and a reasonable stop loss near eu 1183 for day, and 1145 for month. Last week near the 200 day, the weeks held off bulls. Now with the lesser chance of multiple rate cuts. Those monthly supports will be tested and stretched.

The human factor is we have an election. One guy is publicly calling out Powell. Powell as a man, has the opportunity to fire this public official. Many would take the personal insults to heart. More so the personal responsibility of the "right thing to do". Employment is good, the economy is growing. Inflation is in check. The mandate of the Fed is Inflation and Employment. It's not the Feds job to grow the stock market. I doubt Powell want to continue to pump the bubble. To save a guy who constantly insults him. I know I wouldn't.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #37,689
  • Jul 7, 2019 6:49pm Jul 7, 2019 6:49pm
Gator, this you;
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  • #37,690
  • Jul 8, 2019 12:13am Jul 8, 2019 12:13am
having a look at AUDJPY this morning, has consolidated for a few days....
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #37,691
  • Jul 8, 2019 2:59am Jul 8, 2019 2:59am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} gbp day is at 2561, pa broke free today. But the day is still open. The week freshly bearish. The month level is 1496.. I think 2561 break will hold. The month one needs some respect. But eventually I think it will fall with GB fundies.. Leaving ez and all. I froze further positions.
bears need gbp to continue closing below 2520 this h and beyond. Timing wise closing above 2520 may further the bounce to test 2534 norm. And maybe challenge 2543. 2534 will remain, but 2543 will drop with time. 2533 is the daily pp.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #37,692
  • Jul 8, 2019 3:06am Jul 8, 2019 3:06am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} bears need gbp to continue closing below 2520 this h and beyond. Timing wise closing above 2520 may further the bounce to test 2534 norm. And maybe challenge 2543. 2534 will remain, but 2543 will drop with time. 2533 is the daily pp.
the h just closed above 2520. 2543 moves lower to 2536. Odds greatly improve to test 2534 and 2536.. Bulls need to close above 2536 on a h. Bears may step in on the test.. 2536 bulls are greatly behind time on a bounce that breaks 2536. I will collect shorts on the bounce, (but less aggressive). Than if the month was closed below.

pa is st bullish to test 2536 and maybe more with a h close above.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #37,693
  • Jul 8, 2019 3:29am Jul 8, 2019 3:29am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} the h just closed above 2520. 2543 moves lower to 2536. Odds greatly improve to test 2534 and 2536.. Bulls need to close above 2536 on a h. Bears may step in on the test.. 2536 bulls are greatly behind time on a bounce that breaks 2536. I will collect shorts on the bounce, (but less aggressive). Than if the month was closed below. pa is st bullish to test 2536 and maybe more with a h close above.
It just tagged 2538.9. It may settle down, if it doesn't not close above 2536. If it settles down, it should closes below 2520 st bear is here. If not, above 2536 st bulls are here.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #37,694
  • Jul 8, 2019 3:49am Jul 8, 2019 3:49am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} It just tagged 2538.9. It may settle down, if it doesn't not close above 2536. If it settles down, it should closes below 2520 st bear is here. If not, above 2536 st bulls are here.
typo early morn.

2520 doesn't look promising with 9 min to go. week wise 2538 may be all she gets, before a slapdown.. the st levels are testing the larger week 2538
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #37,695
  • Jul 8, 2019 3:57am Jul 8, 2019 3:57am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} typo early morn. 2520 doesn't look promising with 9 min to go. week wise 2538 may be all she gets, before a slapdown.. the st levels are testing the larger week 2538
I put the week stops at 2545
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #37,696
  • Jul 8, 2019 4:03am Jul 8, 2019 4:03am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I put the week stops at 2545
st was unable to close above 2536.. the 1 closes is also a 12h close. Both below 2536 and 2538. it may push it down to test month 2498 again. odds improve with a 1h close below 2520
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #37,697
  • Jul 8, 2019 4:14am Jul 8, 2019 4:14am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} st was unable to close above 2536.. the 1 closes is also a 12h close. Both below 2536 and 2538. it may push it down to test month 2498 again. odds improve with a 1h close below 2520
change to 2521. st pa between 2521 and 2536.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #37,698
  • Jul 8, 2019 4:23am Jul 8, 2019 4:23am
caught a few on the little drop.. pending reload 2537
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #37,699
  • Jul 8, 2019 4:46am Jul 8, 2019 4:46am
from Ransquawk...
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  • #37,700
  • Jul 8, 2019 4:47am Jul 8, 2019 4:47am
more..
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