The Swamp

GBP is acting squiley, like its about to b/o.. one way or another.

You guys are machines to be trading on the 4th. Respect! I work a weekend job at a bar and I am working all this extended 4th of July weekend. Just catching up on the chat here. Everyone have a safe and happy 4th, err, at least the US posters. For the rest of you have a great week and lets see how NFP goes tomorrow.

it stopped now.. it was jerking up and down in a tight range for at least 30 min..

trying to find something and stumbled on this...

Oh no a 6.4 magnitude earthquake in California..hope no major damage. Independence day celebrations hampered..any one trading from California..please be safe..
.

i didnt get the close i wanted below 1274,1268.. NFP to come.. Some R 1298/1301.. possible short there. softer 4h R at 1287

I have a pending long at 1250 for 1.13 TP

Stops at 1240.

it should blow through that level to 118x /1145. if it starts closing below 1254.
if NFP has a bad number, and eu still drops. Forget about longs till 118x or less.

That happened with a bad ADP #. When pa ignores fundies, dont stand in its way. Often after a slight spike, in a like cycle, it will end up lower.

Hence a smaller stop of 10pips. I agree, if it breaks - it'll keep going. 1250 resisted before so it might hold on the first attempt.

1.08 target has not changed so this is a counter trend trade for me.

Peace out

uj 107.82.x now.. its testing it now. that st short changes if the 1h closes above 107.83 now.

if UJ pa closes above 107.82.1, I will look to close. its at 107.86 now, with 40 minutes till close.

the 1h 200 is at 107.87 backed with 107.90..

Does anyone have a older version of MT4 that is stripped of all broker branding and is in its original format?

I closed Uj short on the H close. maybe a mistake, but its closed. Its still under 200 ema.

just got this...

What and where to expect volatility

Arguments In Favor Of Stronger Jobs Report

1. ADP rebounds to 102K vs. 41K
2. Challenger Layoffs at 12.8% vs. 85.9% month prior
3. ISM reports rise in manufacturing jobs
4. Continuing Claims Drop

Arguments In Favor Of Weaker Jobs Report

1. ISM reports weaker job growth in June (but miscalled stronger growth in May)
2. 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims Rises
3. Consumer Confidence Index Drops 10 points in June
4. Lower University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

When it comes to trading NFPs, the absolute amount of job growth is not the only thing that matters. Revisions, average hourly earnings and the unemployment rate are all important. This month, economists predict 164K job growth, average hourly earnings of 0.3% and a steady unemployment rate of 3.6%.

Scenario #1 – If nonfarm payrolls exceed 165K and wage growth rises by 0.3%, the best currencies to trade will be EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD. The ECB may not be ready to cut interest rates in July but easing later this summer is certainly on the table. The Reserve Banks of Australia and New Zealand have also made it clear that further rate cuts may be necessary this year. They are the 2 most dovish central banks and their currencies are the most vulnerable to a correction on the back of a good U.S. jobs report.

Scenario #2 – If nonfarm payrolls rise between 135K to 165K but last month’s numbers are revised materially higher, the U.S. dollar’s reaction will be determined by the pace of wage growth and the unemployment rate. If the rest of the components are strong, we should also see the dollar rise against the euro, Australian and New Zealand dollars. USD/JPY will rally as well but this pair is less attractive because investors could question how much of a difference a muted increase makes for the Fed.

Scenario #3 – However if payroll growth is less than 135K and there’s no material upward revisions to the May report and wage growth fails to accelerate, then the best pairs to trade will be USD/JPY, which could drop below 107 and USD/CHF, which could fall below .9750. If the labor-market report is mixed with job growth accelerating but wage growth slowing or the unemployment rate rising then the dollar’s reaction depends on a bigger surprise.

USD/CAD will also be on the move with Canadian labor-market numbers scheduled for release. Canada’s economy has been on fire but in the context of slower global growth and a very strong currency it won’t take much to disappoint CAD traders. USD/CAD is trading at 8-month lows and a small miss could trigger a voracious short squeeze ahead of next week’s Bank of Canada monetary policy announcement.

levels dropped some now.. 1256 somewhat supportive.. no longer 1258...week range at 1244. Depending on NFP.. pa may end up between those. Then continue lower next week..

I closed my st shorts.. I placed a pending short 1292. since atm pa is above 1256 and 1244 war. Plus NFP coming. I left longer term shorts run.

at 1256 now.. possible bounce.. at the end of the day closing below 1256 today, should be bearish

To get below the 125x/44 area, NFP help may be needed.