Trading with Volume and maybe a horizontal line

If you're interested in how I trade, I've laid it out a little while ago in detail here.

Before I didn't really understand what a trading journal was for, and it's purpose is for the trader to put everything out there so they have an account of their trades and thought process so they have an account and help them realize their strengths and weakness. A nice little side bonus is the trader will be able to see how far they have come.

A little more detail about my realization that not all volume is created equal.

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So today I've been trying to work out what the situation is with AUD/JPY. I've got a few shorts running at the moment, but looking at a Weekly chart I'm super bullish. I think with the shakeout from December of 2018 and with last weeks very positive response to the test I feel like the pair is bullish and ready to head to mid 80s.



The thing is though that H4 and Daily are a bit mixed, we had an upthrust and basically every time the pair gets hit with supply the market responds so I've been shorting the pair. I'm not sure if AUD/JPY is just being setup to take price down to accumulate more longs or if the pair is still bearish and wanting to go test the lows of 71ish.

I think for right now I'm just in a hold the shorts and wait and see what happens mode.

Thanks, I'm interactive so feel free to post whatever.

I'm heavily short on EUR/CAD, there are a few posts on the VSA thread if you're interested in why.

I posted a live scalp trade earlier and added another trade to it, that last M15 bar, you can see there is just no volume in it, no one is interested in taking the pair higher.

Ok, I'm done for the day.

I just closed out my two scalp trades from yesterday.

Today is NFP and the trades didn't go down as fast as I had hoped. I'm not sure what will happen today if NFP will continue to bring this pair down or if it will try to make another run for the stop losses on the short side.

I'm still holding my long term trades and still expect the pair to hit 1.44.

Just a small scalp back to the lows on EUR/AUD.

Yesterday it looks like the pair was sold into the highs, and today there is this failed test. The failed test is at the highs on very high volume, which tests should be low volume.

My short on EUR/AUD was stopped out for -16 pips, no big deal. But over all I'm very happy with the results of NFP, basically confirmed my entries on AUD/JPY which I've been nervous about for days.

AUD/JPY:

I labeled the areas where I saw supply coming in and how price fell every time it was hit. Today we see an up bar hit with massive volume, this has to be selling, if it wasn't then price wouldn't be falling right now.



EUR/CAD:

Looks like the pros attempted a mild stop loss hunt for the short side, I was half expecting price to attempt a massive hunt up to the last low at 1.4775, but 1.4750 was all that was needed I guess.

Added a couple of more shorts on the break of the low of the NFP bar.

You can see from this monthly chart how its been stuck in this distribution period (sideways movement) and the pair is breaking down through all of the lows. Before I was looking at exiting the entire position at 1.44, but I'm thinking we will see lower prices just based on how long the distribution period was, its been over a year.. I think it can possibly go to 1.38, so yeah if this thing hits, this single position will make my entire year.

Also, my stops are locked in at 1.4780.

Will be watching EUR/NZD today, the very high volume up bar from NFP Friday looks like selling and plus there is an up thrust at the highs.

I'm not rushing in just yet to sell this, need to see continued selling somewhere in the first part of the Asian session before taking any entries and looking to exit some where into the lows of July 4th.

EUR/NZD ended up coming off faster than expected so ended up just walking away.

NZD/CAD short trade.

As price came back up to the NFP bar it looks like it got hit with potential selling, entered as price was coming off a no demand bar.

Perfect reaction to the ND, added a 2nd trade and lowered stop, haven't decided yet if whether to exit both positions at the lows or let one run.

In VSA the term trigger number is basically the close of a HV bar. The horizontal white line is the NFP trigger number, late in the US session price tried to break the NFP trigger number but created a 2 bar reversal. Took another sell and moved stops down to 1.4740.

Yesterday I was out doing stuff, but I did make one trade from my phone.

In VSA not all down bars are strength, sometimes they are weakness. The bar I marked off is known as the gotcha bar, it is basically a down bar that is designed to trap buyers in a bad position. For one of these to occur you want to see an up move behind it and you want to see it trap buyers. With this bar you can see the high is just a little higher than the previous bars which I suspect it was trying to trigger breakout traders. I entered as price was coming off a no demand bar.

Not sure what caused the NZD to spike, but I'll take it.

I'm going to take today off, I don't really see anything that looks worth trading.

Posting this chart so I can come back and revisit it in a few days. I see Potential selling on July 8th, but what about the shakeout back into NFP close?

I've been busy with work and unable to really trade.

Watching EUR/NZD today, I see that the last 8 trading days have been down and my first thought is that we've seen stopping volume last yesterday, but today price dropped pretty hard off a no demand. I might look for a sell today.

Quick short off a 2 bar.

I forced the first trade and ended up with a loss, 2nd trade was obvious with the 2 bar reversal.

TP: 1.6550

Lesson learned, really shouldn't go below a M30 chart.