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50% win ratio, 1:1 sl tp, and random entries

  • #101
  • Jul 2, 2019 2:28pm Jul 2, 2019 2:28pm
Quoting JaxPacific
Anyway.. you get the point.
absolutely not lol
  • #102
  • Jul 3, 2019 9:43am Jul 3, 2019 9:43am
Quoting JaxPacific
Also. don't crap on negative progression. It's pretty good if you use a matrix. Even without a matrix , if you go positive 1.3- 1.5 with accelerated regression and some reset and walk points.. forex would be the perfect place to capitalize on that. If a system loses 15 + times in a row you should stop trading or not be using negative progression anyway. Just my 3 cents.

how do you mean you have MM system for a 50 % 50 % system with 1:1.....
it is so easy to code such an ea (49% 51%) is really easy.... you just start a trade at the end of an candle in the same direction the candle ended.... with a few time you will end up 49% 51% .... can you tell more specific about money manangement?
  • #103
  • Jul 3, 2019 4:37pm Jul 3, 2019 4:37pm
Quoting JaxPacific
{quote} I apologize to the forum in advance for the large use of pictures. There are 2 ways I share my money management: If someone gives me a random system that meets the 'actually 50/50' and then I would get someone to code it and add it. Or, if someone has a >=65% entry system, I would have it coded, and I'll give it back, on the condition that it's not posted or talked about publicly. I've spent years testing different money management theories. I've found a few that work pretty well. But just throwing them out just because someone asked.. I...

I do have a hard time understanding...

You say you get someone to code the system, this is the hardest part, how do you get to create it's algorythm ?

Is it because it is randomn, uncomplicated and with a very low sample as your example : "there were 80 total outcomes" ?
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #104
  • Jul 3, 2019 4:44pm Jul 3, 2019 4:44pm
Quoting MonkeyDick
{quote} The indicators are data, idk why u say that u have more chances without data, like for example u will go long if the market is keeping going short? or u will invest in long time in a high volatile market? Basically the indicators can help u to trade, it shows important data of the market. u dont need millions of indicators u just need the more suitable with ur strategies, i have some strategies some of them use a volatility, other use power of index and other just trends.
Because price is all the data you need, why looking into indicators ?

Oh, perhaps because you think that a CCi, RSi, or a MA cross is the way to look ? Any indicators will just give you less informations than the price itself and is for guys that are just not able to read datas all by itself, which is the price.
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #105
  • Jul 3, 2019 5:36pm Jul 3, 2019 5:36pm
I don't see here any benefit for this approach than losing money in the long-run.

If you don't know what's happening and why price is moving as it is moving, better don't trade at all.
  • #106
  • Jul 3, 2019 5:56pm Jul 3, 2019 5:56pm
Quoting The-Flipper
I don't see here any benefit for this approach than losing money in the long-run. If you don't know what's happening and why price is moving as it is moving, better don't trade at all.
Yes, the market is a very volatile hungry beast.

You would definitely loose less money by sitting on your hands waiting for the right pattern, but this takes experience to have the confidence to initiate because even so, it might only be right 50% of the time IN AVERAGE, the distribution being randomn.

Oh and I forgot, no 1:1 will do it, try 1:3 and if you are very good and lucky you might get to 1:2 at the very best, "ON AVERAGE".

But even if you would make "ON AVERAGE" 50% hit rate at 1:1.5, you would be one of the best trader around if you can manage it for years, without martingales of course.
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #107
  • Jul 5, 2019 9:51am Jul 5, 2019 9:51am
Since 85 - 90% S/R are irrelevant and the market is not trending, i've developed a new approach that addresses this issue: the markets are in the hands of MMs and banks.

The new and better perspective is now to estimate the probability that price gravitates to/around/away from certain levels (of interest and from derivatives perspective) and then trade accordingly with it.
  • #108
  • Jul 8, 2019 7:18pm Jul 8, 2019 7:18pm
Quoting The-Flipper
I don't see here any benefit for this approach than losing money in the long-run. If you don't know what's happening and why price is moving as it is moving, better don't trade at all.

The benefit would be a stress-free way to math trade. I agree.. I don't trade 50/50 but there are some interesting experiments out there about coin flip vs buy and hold in the stock market etc.

The real benefit is auto trading with a small amount and let it grow while creating other small accounts to grow to spread the risk of failure. Think casino.. casinos win because of a very small edge. If we can take something that is truly 50 50.. then by controlling the flow of money and expecting deviation, we could, in theory and anecdotally, create an edge.
  • #109
  • Jul 10, 2019 1:35am Jul 10, 2019 1:35am
In my experience researching the markets, the edge is not that big. I look more at the profit factor as measure of a strategy's profitability. I think one common reason for failure is unreasonable expectations. A reasonable profit factor ranges between 1 and 1.45 . Patterns in prices are close to random, the highest I have found so far that is consistent is 60%. After commissions it has a profit factor of 1.35 . Becareful of trading too much cause commissions reduce your bottom line. I have traded successful strategies before and end up losing cause I was using them on small timeframes. Cheers!!!
When you see it, BET big.
  • #110
  • Jul 11, 2019 12:34am Jul 11, 2019 12:34am
In my experience, without a high RRR there is no way to make a living, "aka making money every year".

Mistakes happens, shit happens and randomn distributions happens.

With high RRR you will get less in average so it better be high, anyone who thinks he can have steady incomes because he made it well with 1 to 1 RRR is a fool, the market is an unpredictable beast and sooner or later it will teach that humility.

Be ready to be wrong most of the time because the market will average itself sooner or later.
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #111
  • Jul 11, 2019 3:17am Jul 11, 2019 3:17am
Quoting LDFX
In my experience, without a high RRR there is no way to make a living, "aka making money every year". Mistakes happens, shit happens and randomn distributions happens. With high RRR you will get less in average so it better be high, anyone who thinks he can have steady incomes because he made it well with 1 to 1 RRR is a fool, the market is an unpredictable beast and sooner or later it will teach that humility. Be ready to be wrong most of the time because the market will average itself sooner or later.

I'd say IT IS predictable... otherwise there would b no point trading..................until it's not!
  • #112
  • Jul 11, 2019 4:09am Jul 11, 2019 4:09am
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} I'd say IT IS predictable... otherwise there would b no point trading..................until it's not!
but again who knows?

how do the markets attract new participants if they become unpredictable ?

bah! who gives a f...k... I don't pretend to be profitable forever

it's like an all or nothing bet for me..
  • #113
  • Jul 11, 2019 4:33am Jul 11, 2019 4:33am
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} I'd say IT IS predictable... otherwise there would b no point trading..................until it's not!

Not enough to win in the long term with 1 to 1 RRR.
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #114
  • Jul 11, 2019 4:34am Jul 11, 2019 4:34am
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} but again who knows? how do the markets attract new participants if they become unpredictable ? bah! who gives a f...k... I don't pretend to be profitable forever it's like an all or nothing bet for me..
All or nothing bet ? good luck then !
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #115
  • Jul 11, 2019 4:47am Jul 11, 2019 4:47am
Quoting LDFX
{quote} All or nothing bet ? good luck then !
I don't need it
  • #116
  • Jul 13, 2019 1:27am Jul 13, 2019 1:27am
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} I don't need it
predictability, randomness, etc..., is a whole new topic.

What I meant by unpredictable is that we can’t know for sure what the result of our next trade will be, if we have an edge it is over numerous trades.

Let say you have 50% hit rate with an average win of twice your average loss over 500 trades, you are obviously doing very well, but it doesn’t exempt you of a unusual high loss strike / drawdown, etc..., each trade is unique and anything can happen in terms of distribution.
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #117
  • Jul 13, 2019 11:25am Jul 13, 2019 11:25am
Quoting LDFX
{quote} predictability, randomness, etc..., is a whole new topic. What I meant by unpredictable is that we can’t know for sure what the result of our next trade will be, if we have an edge it is over numerous trades. Let say you have 50% hit rate with an average win of twice your average loss over 500 trades, you are obviously doing very well, but it doesn’t exempt you of a unusual high loss strike / drawdown, etc..., each trade is unique and anything can happen in terms of distribution.


my risk reward ratio is 1:3 for the simple reason that it works better on historical data.. that's all I can say.
  • #118
  • Jul 13, 2019 12:08pm Jul 13, 2019 12:08pm
It is better to aim as close as possible for 100% win rate.
  • #119
  • Jul 13, 2019 1:06pm Jul 13, 2019 1:06pm
Quoting yareck1
It is better to aim as close as possible for 100% win rate.
you have guts
  • #120
  • Jul 15, 2019 5:39pm Jul 15, 2019 5:39pm
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} my risk reward ratio is 1:3 for the simple reason that it works better on historical data.. that's all I can say.
I will rather win small but frequently than big but infrequently. We are all different. I can usually hold my winners longer for higher risk reward but I just love taking profits.
When you see it, BET big.
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