Trading Institutional Order Flow

Thank you very much
Now i post my first chart. I am very shy. Correct it, please.
Tuantm
https://www.tradingview.com/x/R9OTiqUY/
https://www.tradingview.com/x/QK0vfSrv/

Hello tuantm
Well done to you. Excellent try.
I have attached some of my thoughts below.
Well done

best wishes

Greetings,
I'm a few years late to the party just finding this thread a few days ago.
I've been incorporating SD into my trading this past year and am coming from a place of Auction Market Theory.
I know this isn't an AMT thread, but bear with me as maybe some answers can be discovered as a group.
I've had this conflict between Auction Market Theory and Supply Demand Theory and I am hoping someone can help set me straight.

In AMT, the volume profile shows you High Volume Nodes (HVNs) where balance/rotation/high trade facilitation happened and also Low Volume Nodes (LVN) thin areas are where the market was unable to facilitate trade/initiated price discovery to a new price area/was unable to execute very many orders.
In AMT, prices statistically return to the high volume price range to balance and make the highest amount of market participants happy - because the exchanges and brokers are paid when Execution happens. So the game for them is to execute as many transactions, as quickly as possible to gain the commissions; that means reverting to the nearest area of past liquidity, stop hunting, etc.

One of the strategies is to look for the LVN areas and anticipate a pivot from them with a reversal trade at the proximal edge of the LVN. The theory is that thinly traded prices were Rejected in the past(for whatever reason), and Highly traded prices were accepted(because they were somehow fair prices at the time) - thus, the market should Reject the thinly traded prices Again if price advertisement returns to an LVN. Logically this is where unfilled Buy or Sell orders were skipped over because of aggressive market participation and the market is coming back to fill the lonely orders (back-and-fill) and then move away again from where it came (pivot / reversal).

However, in SD, the theory is that unfilled orders are NOT sitting in the areas of thin historical execution - there are limit orders resting Inside the previous consolidation/balance zones, and the exact level of transition to Imbalance exists just on the resolution side/proximal edge of the zone. This proximal line of the SD zone is where the pivot magic is anticipated to happen.

This is the academic conflict I've had with both theories. Which is it?
Are the unfilled, unmatched, skipped over orders resting in the LVNs, Exactly where an SD zone would NOT be drawn/anticipated?
Or are stubborn, persistent, willing to refresh large participant limit orders resting at a balance area / previous Supply Demand zone where there would have been a historical High volume of executions traded (HVN)?
Is this 2 different phenomenon that I am confusing; that happen under different larger timeframe circumstances?

If so, please help me to understand those circumstance variables?

Should SD and AMT never be merged/used together because parts of them are in conflict?

But so many parts from both theories are in sync like "the more times prices hits a zone, the more it weakens"

Yes, I realize "sometimes it works, sometimes it don't" and "it's all probabilities", and maybe that's the answer. I'm just trying to resolve the conflict between 2 methodologies so I can make more consistent and logical decisions. I feel like the more I understand the phenomenon at play, perhaps the less I will second guess myself.

Attached pic is noisy, but it's incorporating 2 schools of thought in an effort to illustrate the conflict.
Any insight is appreciated.
Perhaps @Akt has already thought this through

Very Interesting CPUZ, it will be great if Akt can give his thoughts.

Hello cpuz
Good to meet you.
Thank you for the great description of the methodology you use. It communicates the depth of understanding you have about it.

Firstly, i think there is a small but important misconception about supply and demand in that contrary to what was mentioned in your note, supply and demand levels are actually areas where prices could not stay at (the LVN you describe would be such an area) rather than areas where prices stayed for long periods

The conceptual basis of supply and demand trading is that prices move away from areas where there is a large imbalance between buy and sell orders. The direction of that move is determined by which orders predominate - if its buy orders, then the direction of movement is up; if its sell orders then the direction is down.

Now, the concept continues that once one side of that buy-sell, demand-supply equation becomes zero ie all the orders at that price level are filled, prices will leave the area in search of the next set of orders.

Again, contrary to the idea stated above, that the proximal line is the price where that equation becomes zero, supply and demand insists on that particular price being unknown and unknowable. What we know is that somewhere within a given price range that supply-demand equation became unequal and that is why "zones" are defined by two lines rather than one line.

In terms of your dilemma of combining both methodologies, i am afraid i don't know enough about volume profile to say whether or not that is possible. I am sure you will continue to do the work of researching into it and a worthwhile task it is. There is really no reason why at least some aspects of one methodology can not be usefully combined with another.
What tends to matter more is how one successfully trades any given methodology to profitability.

Please do keep us up to date on how you get on with the research from time to time. Fascinating stuff

best wishes

Hi AKT and everyone, can anyone help me out with this momentum line? Which one is correct on the dragon 4hr?

Hello Brndn

Some thoughts on your question about the GBPJPY.

best wishes

Hello everyone.

I was having a conversation about the Crude oil market recently. I am aware many of the readers and contributors here trade that market.
I thought i would take a slightly different approach to assessing that market given the upcoming OPEC meetings which are a potential fundamental catalyst to the movement of oil prices as usual.

I thoughts i'd look at the Oil market using an exchange traded fund. I chose the popular ETF with ticker symbol XLE - an ETF that tracks the 30 of the largest Oil companies in the world such as ConoccoPhillips, Exxon Mobil and Chevron. This ETF does well if Oil does well as would be expected, since the Oil companies do well with higher Oil prices.

Have a great 3rd Quarter everyone. Trade safe.

best wishes

Hello everyone.

I thought i'd share some thoughts on the GBPJPY, to expantiate on my response to Brndn's question above

best wishes

Hi All,

BPY has a weekly speedbump that's also a Compression zone on the Daily.

A few Questions with the analysis:

1) With no Distal Weekly clearly visible near the lows, is the Distal Daily demand appropriately covered / drawn?

2) Do you guys ignore speedbump RBRs (like the one on the Weekly attached chart) against trend altogether?

3) Given the slow departure Compression price action on the Daily making up the Weekly RBR zone, would you give any special consideration to it?
That is:
Extra reason to stay away from it or ignore it?
Extra reason to look more closely or aggressively at it?

4) Do you see any other SD issues with the charts?

Many thanks!

Hello cpuz

Apologies if the traders here or myself are not clear on your question as there is a bit going on in the charts you posted that we may not be familiar with given we try to keep charts that are as clear as possible.

I have posted my thoughts on the market you charted. Hope it has some of the answers you seek and i'm sure the other guys will chip in their thoughts soon enough

best wishes

Hello everyone

A look at Brent crude for short term income.

best wishes

Hello AKT, my analysis on USDJPY

GBPUSD

Corrections and comments are welcome.

woooow CPUZ, THAT IS GREAT

Hello everyone

A video from a good friend and mentee....
He just shared it with me and the Roundtable members
Shout out to T.I.O.F
best wishes

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=VmiqmY2KGuI

Thank you for sharing
And part about girlfriends so true

Hello everyone.
I hope you're all well.

If i may, i'd like to share a trade idea on the CADSGD pair with the thread.
It is an opportunity that can be considered for long and short term income using smaller timeframes once price reaches the designated demand and supply areas of interest.

Below, is the 12hr chart, chosen for its clarity

best wishes

Hello everyone

Levels to watch in WTI Crude oil

best wishes

Hello everyone

A couple of trades on the GBPNZD.

The higher zone was shared with the Roundtable.
The trade at the second zone was partially closed out today when it hit initial profit targets

I hope it inspires..Don't give up on what you want for yourself. See it..

best wishes

@AKT i was wondering what are the settings you would have on the PIVOTS Indicator.
- Thanks in advance
Best wishes