The Bucking Bronco

Boyd contented that in competitive situation (like combat, sports or debate...)
the opponent with the relatively quicker loop will, at times, have a more relevant picture of the unfolding situation.

This mismatch in orientation can provide opportunity for the quicker side to continue to act to exploit the effects of the first move, before the slower side understands what is happening.
If the quicker side can maintain this mismatch, the slower side will become increasingly disconnected from the environment.

The relatively slower side continues to generate increasingly irrelevant observations,
leading to more disconnected decisions, and so forth.
The relatively slower side’s loop will fold back in on itself as confusion and disorder increase;
generating an internally focused close loop.


Do you see something useful in these elaborations?
Because I did.
Discovering Boyd was a confirmation of my personal intuitions!
Actually a great thing to me!
Again: thanks Linda!

If this mismatch in orientation is combined with menacing pressure of a life or death situation,
(and trading acts on the very same death/live receptors...)
the relatively slower side’s loop quickly degenerates into chaos, panic, and ultimate collapse.

This mismatch is what Boyd referred to as "operating inside their OODA loop."

Miyamoto Musashi, the expert Japanese swordsman and ronin referred to this mismatch as ...
the necessity to "act and react without thinking” in his 17th century treatise The Book of Five Rings.


Loop closed!

(Of course mine is a simplifications of Boyd's reasoning: simply a schematic summary!
We are non talking about speed per se... but about effectiveness and precision.
In the relation Subject/Object what matters is an effective communication with the real world...
The loop is nor linear in his developing but multidimesional... etcetera!
In substance we are talking about the complexity of interactions and interrelationships involved in:
> critical thinking,
> decision-making and
> learning processes)

Orientation... GOT wisdom.

Orientation... Livermore wisdom!

Can you have both of these elements at constant conflict with one another ?

Someone who hasn't mastered his/her craft I think often gives in to the wrong side while the other who has reached mastery does exactly what he/she should do at the right time and the decision comes in "almost" at light speed that it appears as though there hadn't been much thinking prior to the decision.

If the quicker side can maintain this mismatch,
the slower side will become increasingly disconnected from the environment
and their actions will become increasingly unrelated to the actual situation.
They will be driven solely by (wrong/false/internal) perception.


Increasingly irrelevant observations will lead to decisions more and more distant from the reality, and so forth.
Emotions will triumph.
Confusion and disorder will increase; the subject will collapse on itself: internally focused, completely "blind and deaf".


(That situation has something familiar... ROFL! I was there. I know how it is! )

Major Tremblay Jr:
"..the detailed model of the OODA loop
highlights the vitality of individual orientation above all other components.
It is through this critical series of lenses that individual Marines must observe, decide, and act in complex environments.
They must be prepared to shape and be shaped by that process,
to innovate and adapt accordingly."

"Whether that action is emergent, novel or is in accordance with best practices or lessons learned is irrelevant.
What is essential is whether or not that action was relevant to the particular situation and why."

"The question is not how to develop intuitive or analytical decision-making,
the question is how to maximize the relevancy of both skills through the development of individual orientation."

The process of "refining" as you referred through constant feedback I think gives leeway to the slowside sometimes to completely override the quicker side because the refining process itself can be challenging as it constantly goes through changes and evolves with time, experience and knowledge therefore adds extra layer of uncertainty that probably may never go away completely

Somewhere in between this never ending loop of battle of I think I know something to I don't think I know anything at all battle between two sides surges the dominant force which has to be and must be backed up by solid reasoning and facts - we're going back to knowledge it is! there's no going around to it no matter how tempting it is in situations such as this to go the easy way.

This is a torture !

The model (your Mental Road Map) must be solid and consider/comprehend adaptation and change.

Solid (because explains phenomena) but never rigid.
Solid but flexible (because adaptable).

Because the whole model is related to an always changing environment.

Again... loop completed!

In other words context ?

It makes perfect sense as in language written or spoken context is everything - you can gauge or guess meaning of some words or phrases within through the context where as a single word or a sentence without taking into account the backdrop may suggest something completely different.

For a trader orientation is to get the correct direction of the move... in a kill or to be killed situation!
All the simile is perfect to me.

How many candles do you need to understand which one is the winning side?

Getting, finding, discovering the right side is the most important aspect... more important even than the speed!

Away from the desk for a while!

Dr. Peter Senge:
“Personal mastery is the discipline
of continually clarifying and deepening our personal vision,
of focusing our energies,
of developing patience, and
of seeing reality objectively."

"Focusing one’s energies on
improving observation,
recognizing patterns,
understanding the difference between implicit and explicit decision-making
and embracing feedback
is the essential cornerstone of the learning organization..."

2004. Italy.

1996. Italy.

It's funny how trying too hard stops working at some point and becomes a destructive force - where in at the beginning up until somewhere in between intermediate and advanced level if we didn't try hard we wouldn't have reached our current level of understanding and comprehension.

It's an interesting paper, there's so much that we don't know and probably will never understand.

Thanks for you posting, my friend! Really appreciated contribution.

My conclusions, first!

Markets are constantly "manipulated".
But this fact has nothing to do with the logical and mathematical Laws that regulate the Markets' behaviours.

BRUGUIER QUARTZ BOSSAERTS

Really interesting... as all the articles on ToM are, but here I can't agree.
I put this article in the general category about "Traits of Successful Traders".

The central finding in this reasearch is that:
"skill in predicting price changes in markets with insiders correlates with scores on two ToM tasks."
That's to say that "Better Traders Have Better Theory of Mind."

Sorry, I need to know more on three key points:
> Presence or not of of insiders (Premise)
> Prediction (Object)
> What are they playing at... and I think they were doing a sort of Number Game (binary options, sort of).

They say:
"That is, humans detect malevolence or benevolence by online tracking of changes in their environment
(rather than, say, logical deduction about the situation at hand)."

I can turn the statement upside down (and I'll do it! to confute that research's basis):
not knowing what are the logical and mathematical reasons that drive the price,
unprepared traders rely on other parameters to express their OPINIONS.
(And we already know that!)

Malicious or benevolent are not appropriate terms for me! These are early stage, beginners' phase terms!
(Does anyone remember Bill Williams video and the Godzilla experiment?)

If I (researcher) insist on the presence or not of Insiders... I false the survey sample group and the whole experiment!
I'll alert them (and I alter them) triggering, on purpose, mental patterns of deception and benevolence/malevolence: the ToM!

Then I judge everything by the bottom line (and I am against it !!!) and I say "What good! Very good! They have excellent results!"
Excellent results on what?



Hey... I say it again: nice contribution! Interesting reading! But I have my materialistic convictions.
Other questions (truly complex) are: perception/reality, brain data acquisition/treatment, psychology of learning, actions under stress etc.
But they are different terrains.

And now my conclusions again:

Markets are constantly "manipulated".
But this fact has nothing to do with the logical and mathematical Laws that regulate the Markets' behaviours.

THE SPIRAL (trying to explain my point again!)

The Tao moves in a circular fashion, and every time it circles around, it rises to a higher level.
Examples of this are everywhere.
For instance, martial arts students start out with unskilled naturalness. If attacked, they will defend themselves instinctively.
This happens without thinking.

As the students learn more techniques, they transition from unskilled to skillful.
They become more effective than before as their skills increase,
but the emphasis on the techniques makes their movements contrived, artificial and unnatural.
They are in the state of skilled unnaturalness.

After years of diligent (AND CORRECT!) practice, the students have become one with their techniques.
Their moves have become second nature, so they execute them perfectly, without thinking.
They have completed a circle back to naturalness, but now they are at a higher level than before, as skillful warriors.