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Money management: Capital needed per 0.07 USD per microlot 0 replies

The Volume Detective 411 replies

Attachments: (binned per thread starter’s request) MM (Money Maker) Detective
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(binned per thread starter’s request) MM (Money Maker) Detective

Quoting robots4me
{quote} @skyway -- @parisboy is brilliant -- and I'm serious. Early on I didn't appreciate his posts so much, but now I do. It's not that I disagree, rather, I come from a different world. Yes -- I don't have his trading experience, but I have different experience and I'm curious whether it can be applied here. Actually, it's more than curious -- I know it can because I've done it before for trend following strategies. The posts here are amazing! And though I can't do each one justice, I want to work through them all and respond the best I can....
Please do not compare me to George, Moodybot and Bluesteele

Let's say 15 seconds ? 30 seconds if I am distracted by a cup of coffee.

Price action shows ALWAYS the same patterns, endlessly. hence you develop RULES

is it always codable - I am not sure

coding is just a tool.

You need :

- to draw things by hand
- practice on a daily basis post mortem

Hence you will see how things work good and bad a
you could improve your coding and your EA
and the most important understand the LIMITS of the tools you use
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Please do not compare me to George, Moodybot and Bluesteele Let's say 15 seconds ? 30 seconds if I am distracted by a cup of coffee. Price action shows ALWAYS the same patterns, endlessly. hence you develop RULES is it always codable - I am not sure coding is just a tool. You need : - to draw things by hand - practice on a daily basis post mortem Hence you will see how things work good and bad a you could improve your coding and your EA and the most important understand the LIMITS of the tools you use
@parisboy -- good advice, thank you.

Quote
Please do not compare me to George, Moodybot and Bluesteele
I know -- I was just checking to see if you were awake and paying attention.

Quote
and the most important understand the LIMITS of the tools you use
Limits? Did you say "limits"? The tools I use are ,,,BOUNDLESS,,,

Seriously -- of course the tools have limits. I think I understand better now where we differ. You require high precision and accuracy because you are a discretionary trader and each trade is important. I trade algorithmically -- an individual trade means nothing. I rely on statistics. I evaluate performance based on my most recent 100 trades. If the profit factor is > 1.5 and my WinRatio is >= 50%, then I'm golden. Of course my simple algebraic tools will have limitations -- but because I rely on statistics then they can afford to have limitations.
Attached Image
Quoting parisboy
{image}
@parisboy -- this is a "hindsight" example. At the 3rd T2 where you went short the price could have continued into a large draw-down before returning to fair value. This example is no different than others that trend traders have posted.

My alias is 'robots4me' -- where 'robots' refers to robotics, algorithmic, indicators, EAs. There's a new world of trading out there. I'm not trying to convert you -- I'm just sharing with you as I work through this. You keep thinking you've gotta convert me. I ain't gonna draw things by hand and I ain't gonna manual trade -- just not interested. @George and his predators didn't like that and, well, you've seen how that turned out.
Gentlemen and ladies - FXprimate mentioned this thread and it is chock full of great stuff - see this link and tell me what y'all think...

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=10742623#post10742623

And not an MM in sight.... lol
Quoting robots4me
{quote} @parisboy -- this is a "hindsight" example. At the 3rd T2 where you went short the price could have continued into a large draw-down before returning to fair value. This example is no different than others that trend traders have posted. My alias is 'robots4me' -- where 'robots' refers to robotics, algorithmic, indicators, EAs. There's a new world of trading out there. I'm not trying to convert you -- I'm just sharing with you as I work through this. You keep thinking you've gotta convert me. I ain't gonna draw things by hand and I ain't...
Yeah R4M I get that - you've done some amazing stuff already and more to come I have no doubt...I do love a naked chart but also am impressed with your work ethic and tenacity in the face of adversity - per ardua ad astra
Quoting robots4me
{quote} @parisboy -- this is a "hindsight" example. At the 3rd T2 where you went short the price could have continued into a large draw-down before returning to fair value. This example is no different than others that trend traders have posted. My alias is 'robots4me' -- where 'robots' refers to robotics, algorithmic, indicators, EAs. There's a new world of trading out there. I'm not trying to convert you -- I'm just sharing with you as I work through this. You keep thinking you've gotta convert me. I ain't gonna draw things by hand and I ain't...
R4m, have you considered that your EA can also be taking trades that are "precision and accuracy" the kind of an experienced trader like parisboy ?

Quoting robots4me
{quote} @parisboy -- this is a "hindsight" example. At the 3rd T2 where you went short the price could have continued into a large draw-down before returning to fair value. This example is no different than others that trend traders have posted.
That is true. Isn't it obvious then that the challenge to the trader is to look at ways how to recognise the difference between those that do go into large drawdowns and those that don't ?

Have you thought about whether there are differences between counter-trend trades and pull back trend trades ?

Why not research into this specific subject to determine their differences which might influence the traders decision as to why a experienced trader like parisboy mostly chose trend trades over counter-trend trades ?

Quoting robots4me
{quote}You require high precision and accuracy because you are a discretionary trader and each trade is important.
High precision and accuracy need not necessarily be discretionary in nature. This presumed discretionary content can possibly be broken down into subsets that may be quantified into algebraic equations. In the realm of possibility.

It becomes obvious there must be compelling reasons why a experienced trader like parisboy chose to trade primarily with the trend and to a lesser extent counter-trend trade. What are the motivation that determines his choice ?

Automation need not automatically and necessarily mean sacrifice of "precision and accuracy". Another point of view.

I am not suggesting all these above for this thread. More to you as a trader, looking from the point of possibilities from a broader scale.

You have already made it clear this thread is about counter-trend trade.
I feel like the differences similarities in the methods are pretty obvious. I am a discretionary trader.. have been for years.. but I am getting tired of always being in front of the screen. I am at the point where I would rather lose 10-15% accuracy.. maybe more.. and let the math of my money management work. As long as the math is consistent.. I can make a winning system out of just about anything. Anyway.. I don't see why there would be any disagreement on these facts.

@robots4me

is this spikehunter an indi you have shared, or is it private?
Quoting JaxPacific
I feel like the differences similarities in the methods are pretty obvious. I am a discretionary trader.. have been for years.. but I am getting tired of always being in front of the screen. I am at the point where I would rather lose 10-15% accuracy.. maybe more.. and let the math of my money management work. As long as the math is consistent.. I can make a winning system out of just about anything. Anyway.. I don't see why there would be any disagreement on these facts. @robots4me is this spikehunter an indi you have shared, or is it private?

You need to look here

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=920925&goto=lastpost
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
Quoting TopCover
Gentlemen and ladies - FXprimate mentioned this thread and it is chock full of great stuff - see this link and tell me what y'all think... https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=10742623#post10742623 And not an MM in sight.... lol
@TopCover -- yes, definitely looks interesting. I just briefly browsed through a few pages and many of the charts and examples look familiar.
Quoting JaxPacific
I feel like the differences similarities in the methods are pretty obvious. I am a discretionary trader.. have been for years.. but I am getting tired of always being in front of the screen. I am at the point where I would rather lose 10-15% accuracy.. maybe more.. and let the math of my money management work. As long as the math is consistent.. I can make a winning system out of just about anything. Anyway.. I don't see why there would be any disagreement on these facts. @robots4me is this spikehunter an indi you have shared, or is it private?
Quote
I am at the point where I would rather lose 10-15% accuracy.. maybe more.. and let the math of my money management work.
@JaxPacific -- Bingo! That is exactly the point.

Quote
is this spikehunter an indi you have shared, or is it private?
From post #1:

So, in an effort to make it easier for me to better manage the custom indicators I've been uploading, I've created a new thread called "Custom Indicators for TMA-ADR Reversal Trading and BBMA". Here is a link:
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=920925
Quoting skyway
{quote} R4m, have you considered that your EA can also be taking trades that are "precision and accuracy" the kind of an experience trader like parisboy ? {quote} That is true. Isn't it obvious then that the challenge to the trader is to look at ways how to recognise the difference between those that do go into large drawdowns and those that don't ? Have you thought about whether there are differences between counter-trend trades and pull back trend trades ? Why not research into this specific subject to determine their differences which might influence...
Quote
R4m, have you considered that your EA can also be taking trades that are "precision and accuracy" the kind of an experience trader like parisboy ?
@skyway -- of course I've considered it. But it can't be done -- at least not at this level. What you just asked for is the Holy Grail. Everything is a trade-off -- precision and accuracy versus automation. Your choice -- can't have both. Of course, I'm exaggerating -- anything is possible. Just that the resources to tackle something like that is way beyond me. Furthermore, considering no such software currently exists (that I know of) should be a clue as to how complex an endeavor that would be.

You can't code "discretionary" -- unless you get into artificial intelligence (AI). And that's a whole different level of sophistication and complexity. My goal is an indicator / EA that is simple and good-enough. And to be clear, what's good-enough for me may not be good-enough for others. That would be up to each individual to decide.
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} Just a little bit of light relief and to show may be another solution to the problem about getting an idea into code, as they say a picture tells a thousand words {image} {image} {image} {image}
@OAPDave -- please, enough with the unexplained charts. I have to scroll my mouse wheel 5 times just to get through your post -- it takes up nearly a full page. My middle finger gets tired from all the scrolling. I've asked before -- please stop with all the charts.
Quoting robots4me
{quote} {quote} @skyway -- of course I've considered it. But it can't be done -- at least not at this level. What you just asked for is the Holy Grail. Everything is a trade-off -- precision and accuracy versus automation. Your choice -- can't have both. Of course, I'm exaggerating -- anything is possible. Just that the resources to tackle something like that is way beyond me. Furthermore, considering no such software currently exists (that I know of) should be a clue as to how complex an endeavor that would be. You can't code "discretionary" --...
Your good enough tools is in fact very good.

Can you pls read bishopdotun excellent post and my follow on suggestions. Thanks
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=12349395#post12349395
[quote = OAPDave; 12350610] {quote} Nur ein kleines bisschen Erleichterung und Zeigen kann eine andere Lösung für das Problem sein, eine Idee in Code umzusetzen, da ein Bild tausend Worte sagt {image} {image} { Bild} {Bild} [/ quote]
I can only think of a paint bucket, overflowing
Quoting skyway
{quote} Your good enough tools is in fact very good. Can you pls read bishopdotun excellent post and my follow on suggestions. Thanks https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=12349395#post12349395
@skyway -- yes. I want to respond to both @bishopdotun's and @LongBTC's excellent posts. But there is only 25 hours / day and most of my time is spent responding to posts from this fellow that our friend @moodybot keeps referring to as Coco the clown -- or maybe that's me. It's hard to tell.

But before responding to @bishopdotun and @LongBTC there was something else I wanted to bring up.

The recent back and forth about discretionary versus algorithmic trading is good -- I do NOT find it a distraction. However, it now occurs to me I may have been operating under an assumption that was wrong. I assumed everyone was savvy about the use and benefit of using indicators / EAs as an aid in making trading decisions. I mean, even though I'm not a discretionary trader I appreciate its benefits and I do not question it. And I assumed that discretionary traders -- though they don't trade algorithmically -- understood the benefits of automation and wouldn't question it. Furthermore, I assumed that everyone understood the limitations of algorithmic trading -- it uses very simple algebra and functions -- High School Algebra 101. Input data (x,y) values are passed to function1 which creates a new set of (x,y) that are passed to function2, which creates a new set of (x,y) values that are passed to function3, and so on. These algebraic functions are really, really simple. So, posts suggesting that discretionary decision-making be included in an indicator / EA sort of threw me. Algebra does not include discretionary decision making.

That's not to say discretionary decisions couldn't be coded. But, consider this -- you could place 10 discretionary traders in a room and there would be 11 different approaches. Not only could they not create a rules-based strategy, they wouldn't even be able to agree among themselves what those rules should be.

I think this is the source of our recent back-and-forth. And it is good to get this out in the open so we understand where everyone is coming from and properly set expectations.

The discretionary traders need to experiment with the indicator and compare its recommendations with how they would have traded. And then share a screen shot that explains where and why they differ. And then I can better figure out if I can code that logic into the indicator.

Next -- on to @bishopdotun and @LongBTC...
Quoting robots4me
{quote}.....and most of my time is spent responding to posts from this fellow that our friend @moodybot keeps referring to as Coco the clown -- or maybe that's me. It's hard to tell.
Coco the clown is me, you can be rest assured.

Lets not look back at that again now your excellent work here has left that far behind. Not worth your time.

Sidenote - apologise my earlier post left out LongBTC's excellent post from another angle.
I hope this will help someone.

You have drawn the lines on the bottoms and tops.
You have identified the liquidity gap(s) and herd mentality.
You also have identified some possible targets.
The MM has shown his hand. And now what?
You can see the targets both at the top and bottom and you ask yourself which direction is the MM going to take.
Which target first.
In other words how do I trade - buy or sell?

You go back to George's posts and you find that he repeatedly said:
I AM NOT TRYING TO TEACH ANYONE HOW TO TRADE ,,,,,, I AM ONLY TRYING
TO TEACH PEOPLE HOW TO DEVELOP THEMSELVES INTO TRADERS ,, WITH WHAT EVER HELP I CAN OFFER ! ! ! !

Also (quote):
When one applies a BOUNDLESS VIEW to read charts with ,,,,,,
ONE will start to TALK NONSENSE like George does

He also talked about self created filters.

George has done more than 50% of the job for you (if not more than 80%).
All you have to do is to figure out how to trade. How to choose - buy or sell?
He won't share that with you.
I also have figured out what works for me and I'm not going to share it with anyone (it might be a totally different way than what George uses but it works for me).
The other guys in the "inner circle" also do say that they trade differently.
George has laid out the foundation and it is up to you the trader to paint your house according to your color (what works for you).

NB:
- I don't say that I have mastered his theories or methods.
- Also all of that I know I have learned from the thread without communicating with anyone privately.
- All we need to know and what he wanted to share is in that thread (clue: go through his posts and those of his "inner circle").
- No need to look at the information as a puzzle or Math problem (you just have to free your mind from the noise and spend some time applying the knowledge on the charts over and over again).

Also note: This is my personal view of which I have already started to see some fruits of George's work. After pausing live trading for some weeks I recently resumed and I applied George's methods and I am very satisfied with the results. Though I have not completed the work yet. This was my practical test on the live account. What worked for me (and which was very hard at the beginning) was to unlearn all the garbage that was planted in my head so I can bring in the new information in to an empty house.

You can agree or disagree with me and you are welcomed.
I am not starting a debate - I'm just sharing with you guys.
Quoting YoungET
Apologies on not keeping up with the thread and what not had an accident over the weekend and was in the hospital a few days. Looks like I've got plenty of reading to get through since the thread has skyrocketed!
@YoungET -- I'm sorry to hear that. I had noticed you had gone radio silent -- you were missed. I wish you a speedy recovery.
Quoting Pumi
I hope this will help someone. You have drawn the lines on the bottoms and tops. You have identified the liquidity gap(s) and herd mentality. You also have identified some possible targets. The MM has shown his hand. And now what? You can see the targets both at the top and bottom and you ask yourself which direction is the MM going to take. Which target first. In other words how do I trade - buy or sell? You go back to George's posts and you find that he repeatedly said: I AM NOT TRYING TO TEACH ANYONE HOW TO TRADE ,,,,,, I AM ONLY TRYING TO TEACH...
It is excellent news that you have improved your trading ability, but sharing is caring and therefore your post is worthless, because you do not wish to divulge anything, the point of a trading discussion thread is the interaction of ideas, not just to post Eureka type comments which don't give any real value to the readers.
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
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