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General Trading Chat / Ideas

  • #2,261
  • Jun 25, 2019 3:36am Jun 25, 2019 3:36am
Quoting Jp1
{quote} why's that a hedge....he would be short eur on both....ur crurrently short eur / long eur (obviously not quite as simple as that, as the cross is a different pair)
EURUSD and EURJPY have a negative correlation with a coefficient of about 90% or so so when EURJPY goes up EURUSD goes down
ex nihilo
  • #2,262
  • Jun 25, 2019 3:43am Jun 25, 2019 3:43am
Quoting Oc6oph
{quote} EURUSD and EURJPY have a negative correlation with a coefficient of about 90% or so so when EURJPY goes up EURUSD goes down
really? pull up a weekly on both of them....there is only one way they have both been going for the past year. Anyway - happy to be proved wrong!
  • #2,263
  • Jun 25, 2019 3:52am Jun 25, 2019 3:52am
Quoting Jp1
{quote} really? pull up a weekly on both of them....there is only one way they have both been going for the past year. Anyway - happy to be proved wrong!
I just read about them the other day and this is what I read I normally don’t trade EURJPY
ex nihilo
  • #2,264
  • Jun 25, 2019 3:56am Jun 25, 2019 3:56am
If they’re positively correlated rather than negative correlation then they’ll both go up together. Has me worried about my EURUSD shorts I might close
ex nihilo
  • #2,265
  • Jun 25, 2019 3:58am Jun 25, 2019 3:58am
This information I read might be out of date as pairs can change with time
ex nihilo
  • #2,266
  • Jun 25, 2019 4:01am Jun 25, 2019 4:01am
Quoting Oc6oph
If they’re positively correlated rather than negative correlation then they’ll both go up together. Has me worried about my EURUSD shorts I might close
Its not a perfect - but just look at the last few days....eur strength, so both been going up.....today, a bit of a sell and both have gone down. Obviously usd and jpy strengths are going to impact this.....but u still have eur in both and uve taken opposite directions. Thats what i meant by ur “kinda in a natural hedge”.
but dont close anything on my account - just saying what im seeing......dont want u to lose month coz of me, what do i know!
  • #2,267
  • Jun 25, 2019 4:05am Jun 25, 2019 4:05am
Quoting Jp1
{quote} Its not a perfect - but just look at the last few days....eur strength, so both been going up.....today, a bit of a sell and both have gone down. Obviously usd and jpy strengths are going to impact this.....but u still have eur in both and uve taken opposite directions. Thats what i meant by ur “kinda in a natural hedge”. but dont close anything on my account - just saying what im seeing......dont want u to lose month coz of me, what do i know!
yes EURJPY looks very bullish I’m probably going to take a few pips loss on EURUSD and going to wait a bit though
Attached Image
ex nihilo
  • #2,268
  • Jun 25, 2019 6:53am Jun 25, 2019 6:53am
Quoting ZenNy
1.2763 short
closed 33 pips, my risk...+5%.... I am still short cad...but she is getting on my nerves....
trading is simple but is simple is not easy.
  • #2,269
  • Jun 25, 2019 7:05am Jun 25, 2019 7:05am
Quoting Jp1
{quote} i would keep that well away from yourself while ur Trading!
lol, especially the way he trades....
trading is simple but is simple is not easy.
  • #2,270
  • Jun 25, 2019 7:07am Jun 25, 2019 7:07am
Quoting Oc6oph
{quote} EURUSD and EURJPY have a negative correlation with a coefficient of about 90% or so so when EURJPY goes up EURUSD goes down
mate, I think I smoke but you are getting stoned....
trading is simple but is simple is not easy.
  • #2,271
  • Jun 25, 2019 7:09am Jun 25, 2019 7:09am
Quoting ZenNy
{quote} mate, I think I smoke but you are getting stoned....
I think you need to open your eyes to my previous post
ex nihilo
  • #2,272
  • Jun 25, 2019 7:12am Jun 25, 2019 7:12am
Quoting Oc6oph
{quote} I think you need to open your eyes to my previous post
relax mate, I am only teasing you, a bit of humour is necessary.....
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trading is simple but is simple is not easy.
  • #2,273
  • Jun 25, 2019 7:16am Jun 25, 2019 7:16am
Quoting ZenNy
{quote} mate, I think I smoke but you are getting stoned....
This must be because of the safe-haven perception both the JPY and USD have relative to each other. Although I recall reading last year that this correlation was in breakdown.

Sure enough, Oanda's correlation table shows over the past year a ~60% positive correlation for these pairs (closer to 0%-10% in the short term though).
  • #2,274
  • Jun 25, 2019 7:20am Jun 25, 2019 7:20am
Quoting mc2010
{quote} This must be because of the safe-haven perception both the JPY and USD have relative to each other. Although I recall reading last year that this correlation was in breakdown. Sure enough, Oanda's correlation table shows over the past year a ~60% positive correlation for these pairs (closer to 0%-10% in the short term though).
i must just be old skool, coz all u gotta do is pull up the charts and use ur eyes.......can see all the correlation u need from there
  • #2,275
  • Jun 25, 2019 7:22am Jun 25, 2019 7:22am
AUDCAD bearish.
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  • #2,276
  • Jun 25, 2019 7:25am Jun 25, 2019 7:25am
Quoting mc2010
{quote} This must be because of the safe-haven perception both the JPY and USD have relative to each other. Although I recall reading last year that this correlation was in breakdown. Sure enough, Oanda's correlation table shows over the past year a ~60% positive correlation for these pairs (closer to 0%-10% in the short term though).
I am not sure what you mean.....but for the sake of the conversation I had a look at all this correlation business a while back but I could not find a way out of it.......I guess it was only a way to tame my anxiety to justify my entries.....I came to the conclusion there is not need for it, actually it was confusing me more which I did not need.....best to stick to the 7 majors and follow PA, it is all there.

another table....
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trading is simple but is simple is not easy.
  • #2,277
  • Jun 25, 2019 7:33am Jun 25, 2019 7:33am
Quoting ZenNy
{quote} closed 33 pips, my risk...+5%.... I am still short cad...but she is getting on my nerves....
ok...reasons...otherwise just calling live trades does not help anyone.....

3 pushes up, a double top, a rising wedge.......I thought was a fair try.... also a a possible morning reversal (at the time of my entry)...

still this is bull in my view until that HL of 2708 is not broken.
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trading is simple but is simple is not easy.
  • #2,278
  • Jun 25, 2019 7:47am Jun 25, 2019 7:47am
Quoting ZenNy
{quote} closed 33 pips, my risk...+5%.... I am still short cad...but she is getting on my nerves....
closed +55 initial risk was 32... a simple DTBF...

I am also short UJ @ 107..
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trading is simple but is simple is not easy.
  • #2,279
  • Jun 25, 2019 8:00am Jun 25, 2019 8:00am
my eu view.....in a channel

in this bull, best buy was around 1208 (accumulation and a breakout pull back, after a fail final flag) , then 1272, think Dig got in here (a break out test), and another 1317....after that she has bee slippery........now the trend line of the channel held but I feel 1334 would be a good price to buy if the conditions remain the same.....
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trading is simple but is simple is not easy.
  • #2,280
  • Jun 25, 2019 8:00am Jun 25, 2019 8:00am
Quoting ZenNy
{quote} closed +55 initial risk was 32... a simple DTBF... I am also short UJ @ 107.. {image}
Where was your entry for CAD
ex nihilo
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