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Let's Trade Options

  • #16,881
  • Jun 24, 2019 2:45pm Jun 24, 2019 2:45pm
ES looks on a diving platform now to me. It just needs US/China flop as a trigger.

sitting tight here with short CFD + Put 2900 20-sept-2019 for the summer

aiming 282x, 272x and 262x

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  • #16,882
  • Jun 24, 2019 3:51pm Jun 24, 2019 3:51pm
In the absence of any major macro scheduled events or news US equities will m/l grind sideways to slowly up....the G20 meeting between Xi and Trump next weekend is being billed as a BFD and maybe it will be. I'll be looking at bi-directional setups to catch something off of that next week.

I have always thought the announcement of a resolution of China-US trade tensions would catalyze the next hot leg up for US equities....and then after that perhaps some macro realities might sink in and they would slide? Really though, with the Powell put in place, I'd guess equities won't take a dump until there are some dramatic risk off events, impossible to forecast those....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,883
  • Jun 24, 2019 3:53pm Jun 24, 2019 3:53pm
Quoting Replicant
ES looks on a diving platform now to me. It just needs US/China flop as a trigger. sitting tight here with short CFD + Put 2900 20-sept-2019 for the summer aiming 282x, 272x and 262x
....yeah maybe so, I'd want to have something either side of that, though, as noted above.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,884
  • Jun 25, 2019 1:18am Jun 25, 2019 1:18am
Quoting The Fool
I'd want to have something either side of that, though, as noted above.
....binary events hard to find, but maybe there's a trade there.

What gets hit hardest by China trade conflict? Tech, raw materials, industrials - look for names with large overseas (ie Chinese) business interests......

think chipmakers QCOM, MU, AVGO, TXN, SOXX in tech...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,885
  • Jun 25, 2019 1:26am Jun 25, 2019 1:26am
gotta like the QCOM moves recently, perhaps post Trump-Xi it could do it again...the 6/28 1 week $69/77 dbl calendar is around 35c each side, ya want to get it to the back week long puts/calls and maybe hit the freak out
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,886
  • Jun 25, 2019 1:37am Jun 25, 2019 1:37am
AVGO easily can blow thru $40 in a hairy week...options kinda thin, though
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,887
  • Jun 25, 2019 1:50am Jun 25, 2019 1:50am
FCX $11/12 strangle.....hmmm
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,888
  • Jun 25, 2019 1:58am Jun 25, 2019 1:58am
beware the zombie apocalypse

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...of2&yptr=yahoo
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,889
  • Jun 25, 2019 2:17am Jun 25, 2019 2:17am
gold could do a 180 if there's happy news outta China over the weekend...the 1 week 6/28 $130 GLD put calendar is a 25c trade
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,890
  • Jun 25, 2019 5:22am Jun 25, 2019 5:22am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}....binary events hard to find, but maybe there's a trade there. What gets hit hardest by China trade conflict? Tech, raw materials, industrials - look for names with large overseas (ie Chinese) business interests...... think chipmakers QCOM, MU, AVGO, TXN, SOXX in tech...
Yes definitely playing it here. Previous leg down to 272x was triggered by DT ending trade war truce in May.

On the background, there are also US numbers hit on many fronts for a few months now, especially manufacturing sector.
Sure now markets are reading bad news as good news with FED on the cut path but that shouldn't last imo, because at the end that will be bad news via earnings etc.
On top, FED wouldn't be on the cut path imo if there was a risk to create a bubble. So I think we are fine there.
  • #16,891
  • Jun 25, 2019 5:40am Jun 25, 2019 5:40am
For stocks (not really specifically related to trade war), I'm loaded to the downside on Netflix.

It looks really exhausted TA wise.
FA wise, Netflix prices are just going up all across the world while content remains poor. That rarely ends well

aiming => 31x => 28x => 25x => 19x for the MT

Ideally something like this :

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  • #16,892
  • Jun 25, 2019 2:40pm Jun 25, 2019 2:40pm
Quoting Replicant
ES looks on a diving platform now to me. It just needs US/China flop as a trigger. sitting tight here with short CFD + Put 2900 20-sept-2019 for the summer aiming 282x, 272x and 262x {image}
rejection at the highs, that's a start

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  • #16,893
  • Jun 25, 2019 10:23pm Jun 25, 2019 10:23pm
bot GLD put calendars today $129 7/5 - 7/12 for $0.11
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,894
  • Jun 26, 2019 11:21am Jun 26, 2019 11:21am
Quoting The Fool
I have always thought the announcement of a resolution of China-US trade tensions would catalyze the next hot leg up for US equities....and then after that perhaps some macro realities might sink in and they would slide? Really though, with the Powell put in place, I'd guess equities won't take a dump until there are some dramatic risk off events, impossible to forecast those....
...I will play both sides but I have to believe the outcome of Xi-Trump at the G20 will be: no new tariffs, Xi and Trump are bff's, spoos pushes to new ath's next week
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,895
  • Jun 28, 2019 8:39am Jun 28, 2019 8:39am
Im glad found this options thread...and i think u have same " fool " strategy like me....i trade naked buying options with weekly expired...im close if ROI mininmal 25% about one day until a week....but now i like use monthly expire...that make good ROI....

I dont selling option because im really like forex trading...so if u know good entry in forex....u will better in stock ( i think hehe).

But now i see your " fool " strategi change hehe....u use sellling strategy and another....why dont use same fool like was...so we can trade together hehe...

Here my last " fool" close trade

Glad fine u Fool

Ruben
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  • #16,896
  • Jun 28, 2019 8:50am Jun 28, 2019 8:50am
And here my last open trades...
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  • #16,897
  • Jun 28, 2019 10:48am Jun 28, 2019 10:48am
Quoting ruben17
Im glad found this options thread...and i think u have same " fool " strategy like me...
Hi Ruben. I don't really trade options like you do, but you're welcome to post here. Your style is like Moneymaker's, who used to post here. I mostly trade index options spreads....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,898
  • Jun 28, 2019 12:44pm Jun 28, 2019 12:44pm
Open buying option today
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  • #16,899
  • Jun 28, 2019 1:14pm Jun 28, 2019 1:14pm
Ruben,

Those order screen shots are quite large, take up a lot of space. Maybe you can find a briefer way to note what you have traded? Or, you can start your own thread and post whatever you like? Bear in mind, I'm not interested in buying puts & calls directionally as an approach to options trading, in general, so I'm not likely to look at or comment on your trade ideas.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,900
  • Jun 28, 2019 1:19pm Jun 28, 2019 1:19pm
.....only time I buy options is when I am trying to leg into a spread trade. I saw today's rally continuation and thought it might sell off at the close, given the uncertainty around Trump-Xi....so I have been buying SPY puts with hope of selling puts for risk-free spreads by the end of the day.

Couple hours ago bot Jul12 $285 SPY puts for $1.17, now trying to sell $284 same date puts @ >$1.20...we'll see...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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