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The Volume Detective 411 replies

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  • #3,641
  • Edited 9:25pm Jun 24, 2019 8:08pm | Edited 9:25pm
Quoting Nih98
{quote} Hi Bro/All, if you want to create specialized tool in this 'spike' reversal setup trading, then maybe better if you start to create tool to recognize 'spike patterns' and results first. Apply Kohonen Neural Network in your indicator code to 'search' and mapping 'spike patterns' and also the 'results'. So, when the indicator 'find' one specific 'spike pattern' then 'she' could suggest the highest potential 'result' for that 'spike pattern' base on her recorded NN learning loop. NN and Sub-Sequence Theorem combination could pin pointing better...
Uncle, I cracked my head the last few days about this outright "spike" reversal setup. We may have to go to that level as you suggest or a simple short cut is target target target may do the trick ?

Or momentum filter can help avoid the peak power of the spike ?
  • #3,642
  • Jun 24, 2019 8:14pm Jun 24, 2019 8:14pm
I was just thinking about something -- it sort of knocks @George et al, but still worth clarifying...

@George et al mock useless indicators. They mock this thread. But consider the following:

@George's methodology employs the following:
1. Hand-drawn target levels that aid in determining Entries.
2. Indicator for Liquidity gaps -- again as an aid in Entries
3. TMA bands -- 8 of them -- to rank extreme prices
4. 9 SMA bands for momentum filtering (200 SMA, 20 SMA, 7 SMA at three TF's)
5. A list of 20 or so additional filters (including ADR, session times, phase of the moon, etc.)
6. Exits -- at your convenience.
7. Stop loss -- none

Spike Hunter
1. Keltner ATR bands to identify spikes
2. Momentum filter to distinguish between true and false signals
3. Stochastic/RVI algorithm to aid in identifying Exits
4. ADR for computing Stop loss

Not only is @George's approach much more labor intensive, it actually uses more indicators than SpikeHunter. He just chooses not to call them indicators. He uses bands, TOPS/BOTTOMS, liquidity gaps, SMAs, ADR. SpikeHunter uses bands, momentum, and ADR.

Questions:
1. Which methodology uses more indicators?
2. Which methodology is more labor intensive?
3. Which methodology is more prone to human error?
4. Which methodology lends itself to automation?

@George, @moodybot, @bluesteele are full of it. They use more useless indicators than SpikeHunter.
  • #3,643
  • Jun 24, 2019 8:17pm Jun 24, 2019 8:17pm
Hi R4M,

I think you need to hear this again, if I can't trade reversals then you don't stand a chance

Unless you are going to use fixed reference points (S&R) then your entries will always be based on dynamically moving MA's and thus there will never be a good Win to Loss R:R, because it in not possible to compare Apples with Apples (each Spike will be different).

And if you want to continue down the dynamic reversal path, you need a confirmation filter, this will mean missing part of the move, I showed this in a chart yesterday.

Regards

RT
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #3,644
  • Jun 24, 2019 8:21pm Jun 24, 2019 8:21pm
Quoting Nih98
{quote} Hi Bro/All, if you want to create specialized tool in this 'spike' reversal setup trading, then maybe better if you start to create tool to recognize 'spike patterns' and results first. Apply Kohonen Neural Network in your indicator code to 'search' and mapping 'spike patterns' and also the 'results'. So, when the indicator 'find' one specific 'spike pattern' then 'she' could suggest the highest potential 'result' for that 'spike pattern' base on her recorded NN learning loop. NN and Sub-Sequence Theorem combination could pin pointing better...
Hey friend @Nih98 -- yes, but way to complicated for me at this point. Also, even if that were implemented, how would one quantify "highest potential result"? Seems to me it leads to more questions, which lead to additional complexity, and so on.

Seems to me that people -- especially technical ones -- fall in love with complexity and that always becomes their first approach. I'd rather explore simpler solutions and see if I can find one that qualifies as "good enough".
  • #3,645
  • Jun 24, 2019 8:31pm Jun 24, 2019 8:31pm
Quoting Robot Trader
Hi R4M, I think you need to hear this again, if I can't trade reversals then you don't stand a chance Unless you are going to use fixed reference points (S&R) then your entries will always be based on dynamically moving MA's and thus there will never be a good Win to Loss R:R, because it in not possible to compare Apples with Apples (each Spike will be different). And if you want to continue down the dynamic reversal path, you need a confirmation filter, this will mean missing part of the move, I showed this in a chart yesterday. Regards...
Quote
if I can't trade reversals then you don't stand a chance
@Robot Trader -- you forgot to add "trust me".

Quote
And if you want to continue down the dynamic reversal path, you need a confirmation filter, this will mean missing part of the move,
Nope -- where have you been? I've posted a number of times about the momentum filter I'm using -- it's a combination of @Nih98's FX RSI filter and an additional stochastic-based filter. The filter is applied at the same time a signal is generated.

Quote
then your entries will always be based on dynamically moving MA'
Are you suggesting that extreme prices poking their head above / below an envelope is a failed approach? If so, you might want to have a word with @parisboy.

I know your intentions are good -- but when you make absolute statements and the only evidence is your experience, then it creates tension and distractions. It's no different than @bluesteele's insistence that indicators are useless "trust me". Based on what? What evidence does he have? Was he a failed trader before @George? Of course not. Does he use indicators? Of course he does. So, if you are going to make statements that something doesn't work then provide evidence.

EDIT: @Robot Trader -- when an extreme price breaks above / below an Envelope there is a tendency to return to a fair value. Certainly you can see this, right? It may not happen all the time, but it happens more often than not. And when something happens more often than not, then that becomes your edge. That's what you try to exploit.
  • #3,646
  • Jun 24, 2019 8:32pm Jun 24, 2019 8:32pm
Quoting robots4me
{quote} @mixedbags -- screen shot, please...
no source file
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  • #3,647
  • Jun 24, 2019 8:36pm Jun 24, 2019 8:36pm
Quoting skyway
{quote} Uncle, I cracked my head the last few days about this outright "spike" reversal setup. We may have to go to that level as you suggest or a simple short cut is target target target may do the trick ? Or momentum read can avoid the peak power of the spike ? {image}
Quote
Or momentum read can avoid the peak power of the spike ?
@skyway -- looks like you are using an old version of the indicator -- why?
  • #3,648
  • Jun 24, 2019 8:42pm Jun 24, 2019 8:42pm
Quoting robots4me
{quote} {quote} @skyway -- looks like you are using an old version of the indicator -- why?
2 reasons -
1. Old people dislike disruptive change ,
2. I synchronise it with the rest of the old tools. New tools require another round of testing and recalibration. Not suitable for old lazy traders.
  • #3,649
  • Jun 24, 2019 8:42pm Jun 24, 2019 8:42pm
Quoting mixedbags
{quote} no source file {image}
@mixedbags -- I don't think it can be used for trading reversals. The reason why is because the Fibonacci levels are drawn between the highest and lowest prices over the past 100 bars (for example). If the current bar becomes a new high or new low, then the lines get redrawn.
  • #3,650
  • Jun 24, 2019 8:46pm Jun 24, 2019 8:46pm
Quoting robots4me
{quote} @mixedbags -- I don't think it can be used for trading reversals. The reason why is because the Fibonacci levels are drawn between the highest and lowest prices over the past 100 bars (for example). If the current bar becomes a new high or new low, then the lines get redrawn.
How about using another old tool, fib extension for target ? Just throwing suggestions
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  • #3,651
  • Jun 24, 2019 8:51pm Jun 24, 2019 8:51pm
Quoting skyway
{quote} How about using another old tool, fib extension for target ? Just throwing suggestions {image}
@skyway -- I've thought about it. I've come to the conclusion that Envelopes serve the purpose of creating the outer boundary or fence that when penetrated defines an extreme price.

By the way, if you were using the latest version of SpikeHunter you'd see how well @Nih98's SweetSpot indicator works at picking out extreme prices -- just saying...
  • #3,652
  • Jun 24, 2019 8:52pm Jun 24, 2019 8:52pm
Quoting skyway
{quote} 2 reasons - 1. Old people dislike disruptive change , 2. I synchronise it with the rest of the old tools. New tools require another round of testing and recalibration. Not suitable for old lazy traders.
Quote
1. Old people dislike disruptive change
BS

Quote
2. I synchronise it with the rest of the old tools. New tools require another round of testing and recalibration. Not suitable for old lazy traders.
This one I get.
  • #3,653
  • Jun 24, 2019 8:55pm Jun 24, 2019 8:55pm
for reversal and filter.

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H4 EURUSD

There is a SS2009_B on top of SS2009_C and your RsxExit
  • #3,654
  • Jun 24, 2019 9:18pm Jun 24, 2019 9:18pm
Whatever I have on my screen

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Don't ask me is this profitable or not?
Don't ask me will it hit 98% or not?

I just turn on some funky music and dance with it.
  • #3,655
  • Jun 24, 2019 9:23pm Jun 24, 2019 9:23pm
Quoting robots4me
{quote} Hey friend @Nih98 -- yes, but way to complicated for me at this point. Also, even if that were implemented, how would one quantify "highest potential result"? Seems to me it leads to more questions, which lead to additional complexity, and so on. Seems to me that people -- especially technical ones -- fall in love with complexity and that always becomes their first approach. I'd rather explore simpler solutions and see if I can find one that qualifies as "good enough".
For MT4 programming environment I agree.. but for MT5 it will be more supports, and since NN purpose is to simplify the patterns complexity then 'highest potential result' will be base on similarity percentage. This article (https://www.mql5.com/en/articles/283) will be help for you who want to know further about implementation of Teuvo Kohonen - SOM (Self-Organizing Feature Maps) into MT4/5 environment.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The above example may look like Master SwingMan Fractal Indi, but actually very different because that 'Smiley' Signal formula base on SOM and Sub-Sequence Theorem..
Of course not that 100% winning strike, but nearly close to 95% group... lol

NIH
Dog + Smile = Beautiful Day
  • #3,656
  • Jun 24, 2019 9:28pm Jun 24, 2019 9:28pm
Quoting Nih98
{quote} For MT4 programming environment I agree.. but for MT5 it will be more supports, and since NN purpose is to simplify the patterns complexity then 'highest potential result' will be base on similarity percentage. This article (https://www.mql5.com/en/articles/283) will be help for you who want to know further about implementation of Teuvo Kohonen - SOM (Self-Organizing Feature Maps) into MT4/5 environment. {image} The above example may look like Master SwingMan Fractal Indi, but actually very different because that 'Smiley' Signal...
Uncle, can use it for bo?
  • #3,657
  • Jun 24, 2019 9:53pm Jun 24, 2019 9:53pm
Quoting robots4me
{quote} @mixedbags -- I don't think it can be used for trading reversals. The reason why is because the Fibonacci levels are drawn between the highest and lowest prices over the past 100 bars (for example). If the current bar becomes a new high or new low, then the lines get redrawn.
It could be used for Exits, but may well take you past the Mean (or fair value)
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #3,658
  • Jun 24, 2019 10:12pm Jun 24, 2019 10:12pm
Quoting robots4me
{quote} {quote} @Robot Trader -- you forgot to add "trust me". {quote} Nope -- where have you been? I've posted a number of times about the momentum filter I'm using -- it's a combination of @Nih98's FX RSI filter and an additional stochastic-based filter. The filter is applied at the same time a signal is generated. {quote} Are you suggesting that extreme prices poking their head above / below an envelope is a failed approach? If so, you might want to have a word with @parisboy. I know your intentions are good -- but when you make absolute statements...
I am not sure about the Momentum filter when trading Spikes.

I have attached a couple of charts showing trades taken by one of my EA's, it uses a custom indicator, but it gets its confirmation to enter a trade from the PDL (the RED meandering line) passing back within the 2x StdDev.

So while we have filters how are we determining the actual Entry Point, because we are not looking to grid (like my EA does if further conditions are met) we are relying on a single trade with some sort of SL, based on some sort of R:R.

The way your indicator might work is frequency of trading, so its loses are far less than its wins, but this needs the EA to check this, paper trading the Strategy will not give proper results because of the repainting issues.
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Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #3,659
  • Jun 24, 2019 10:19pm Jun 24, 2019 10:19pm
Quoting robots4me
I was just thinking about something --
Of all your thoughts, this is simply the worse waste of precious time.
  • #3,660
  • Jun 24, 2019 10:26pm Jun 24, 2019 10:26pm
Quoting skyway
{quote} Of all your thoughts, this is simply the worse waste of precious time.
@skyway -- Okay -- so, I indulged myself. Is that such a crime?
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