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Are We All Gambling?

  • #241
  • Jun 23, 2019 8:20am Jun 23, 2019 8:20am
I think we are partly gamblers
  • #242
  • Jun 23, 2019 12:50pm Jun 23, 2019 12:50pm
Quoting zilo
I think we are partly gamblers
....with an edge
  • #243
  • Edited 7:34am Jun 24, 2019 7:04am | Edited 7:34am
IOHO... Currency Trading for vast majority of retail traders is gambling.
And they will, like the majority of gamblers, .. loose. Industry/brokerage figures incontrovertibly confirm this.
This particular debate/discussion like many others on this same question, conflate the existence of the few participants (as in many gambling genres) that either through inside information, or a superior analytical/technical edge (Normally limited to institutional market participants) can beat the system and some will return profit over time. By definition these will be a minority. This is again confirmed by industry/brokerage figures.
Inevitably in discussion, these realities are challenged by those few successful retail voices, that are among that tiny winning minority, or the wannabees aspirants to that club.
Currency trading, like options/futures, unlike investment in equities or other asset classes is inherently NEGATIVE ZERO SUM.
Negative (?) because though in terms of Game Theory is Mathematically zero-sum... because of Transaction Cost becomes negative.
(TC is a major cumulative cost for STF retail traders, and typically a multiple of that for institutions).
Hence IOHO, it seems reasonable, for the general public to risk money on a hobby basis, in a system that is inherently negative Zero-Sum to be reasonably described as gambling.
Just a Thought.
Warning: A Dangerous Subversive: 1% of comments CoCed
  • #244
  • Jun 24, 2019 12:51pm Jun 24, 2019 12:51pm
I would say that yes, all that EA's, strategies and things like signals, like some fundamental analysis or technical analysis and so on really do not make anything in the long run which couldn't be done by simple gamble here and there, I am completely YES on that poll and polls which are similar to that. Some good advices with an offline business really take part in all this, people really will need to take care about. Cause it's really a huge risk even more than with forex for example where you can simply stop trading.
  • #245
  • Jun 24, 2019 1:59pm Jun 24, 2019 1:59pm
gambling is a game of probabilities/LUCK...nothing else!!!!!

https://www.quora.com/Is-there-any-d...g-and-gambling
  • #246
  • Jun 24, 2019 2:44pm Jun 24, 2019 2:44pm
If you see trading as gambling you can easily lose money. gambling leads to wishful thinking.

since I started seeing it as a business / a game of skill... I'm trading well and I'm not losing
  • #247
  • Jun 24, 2019 2:46pm Jun 24, 2019 2:46pm
Quoting HeyYou
If you see trading as gambling you can easily lose lots of money. gambling leads to wishful thinking. since I started seeing it as a business / a game of skill... I'm trading well and I'm not losing leverage restriction helped to get rid of the gambler inside me
after 15 years i folow forex,its sadly realy became all gambling bet on red or bed on black that is!!! fuck the indicators,news and patterns..bull shit
forex=roulette
  • #248
  • Jun 24, 2019 3:15pm Jun 24, 2019 3:15pm
Quoting pridolfx
{quote} after 15 years i folow forex,its sadly realy became all gambling bet on red or bed on black that is!!! fuck the indicators,news and patterns..bull shit forex=roulette
this trading thing is tough for everyone!

somehow I maneged to keep "sane" and well I'm not complaining... I love it win or lose don't ask me why... maybe because I still have a job and yesterday I made 1k euro in 2 hours (with my job)
  • #249
  • Jun 24, 2019 3:22pm Jun 24, 2019 3:22pm
Quoting TEntropy
Looking to take a poll of the traders on here. What does gambling mean to you and are we as traders doing it? Does betting on anything probabilistic equate to gambling? Is it only gambling if you have a negative expectancy like playing roulette? If so, is the counter-part to your bet (the casino) not gambling? The dictionary definition of gambling is: 1. the activity or practice of playing at a game of chance for money or other stakes. Do you agree with this?
I have the best advise a real trader can give you, everyone here is telling you all kind of stuff but reality is this
WAY OF THE TURTLE
and if you don't understand that areal advice from me is GO AHEAD and save you time and quit now before you loose it all
That kind of question no real trader will ever ask
I said a gain
WAY OF THE TURTLE
  • #250
  • Edited 3:57pm Jun 24, 2019 3:35pm | Edited 3:57pm
Quoting pridolfx
{quote} after 15 years i folow forex,its sadly realy became all gambling bet on red or bed on black that is!!! fuck the indicators,news and patterns..bull shit forex=roulette
Indeed, trading shouldn't be gambling at all. However, I must note that the institutions that move price these days almost do not respect structure. Spikes happen in a deliberate fashion to take out stop losses. It seems price is more attracted to stop losses than to anything else. It just means that we are trading against machines that have been created to eat traders for breakfast..
  • #251
  • Jun 24, 2019 3:41pm Jun 24, 2019 3:41pm
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} this trading thing is tough for everyone! somehow I maneged to keep "sane" and well I'm not complaining... I love it win or lose don't ask me why... maybe because I still have a job and yesterday I made 1k euro in 2 hours (with my job)
Nice, need some help? That's the money I'm talking about.

Regarding the topic... Sure, there is a massive gambling parameter/component on every trade... although some things/rules do work some of the time (so chaotic market, not random)... All (relevant/thematic) movies are honest about it, search for some of my previous posts about movies... I think I covered pretty much all of them... See here and here. One example below (more on mentioned links):

Rogue Trader (1999) - MOVIE..
"Thats all the market is, one giant casino."
PS: And this movie is TRUE STORY, real person... wiki it up...

Also can you imagine how much would you make if you had a PREVIEW of what "someone" will TWEET?
ONE TWEET and market responds instantly... You could make money like this right

The big players (Billions series emphasise this good) are trying to present some "INFO" as RESEARCH... That is the name of the game for ... you decide what %...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #252
  • Jun 24, 2019 4:11pm Jun 24, 2019 4:11pm
For my opinion, is it not important that we are gamble or not.

As long as we can earn money, who care we are gamble or not.

In my personal life, everything is like gamble. Only to choose yes or not / go or no go. Example like when i get a new job, i need to choose yes or not to join the company. The result might different. It could be good or bad. But the important is i should not to regret and focus what is my goal. Keep improving and dun give up after decision make. I believe we all can success with no give up attitude.

Just my opinion.
https://t.me/GoldMaxFX
  • #253
  • Jun 24, 2019 4:18pm Jun 24, 2019 4:18pm
You could say the same about life in general. You take a car, you gamble your life and kids lives. You go to the mall you worry about terror. You gamble every day. Forex brings the "BEAST" out of us so to speak because it unleashes what we chased and ran from throughout human history. That is running or fighting threat (losing trades) and Hunting gathering, building your empire. (Winning trades).

If you can tame this you will be something most will never experience in their lifetime and potentially your families lifetime if they take it on. I'd say.. it can be gambling if you are just putting your money in the market without trying to learn why, how, when it moves. Yet, if you know these and pay attention to stop loss, roll overs, news releases, you can be profitable. Most will not achieve this. Just as I think most of our human ancestors in the past struggled and died young because they could not stay net positive in life. They needed learning experiences to hand down and so on to make humanity what it is today.
  • #254
  • Jun 24, 2019 4:21pm Jun 24, 2019 4:21pm
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} Indeed, trading shouldn't be gambling at all. However, I must note that the institutions that move price these days almost do not respect structure. Spikes happen in a deliberate fashion to take out stop losses. It seems price is more attracted to stop losses than to anything else. It just means that we are trading against machines that have been created to eat traders for breakfast..
honestly, I don't know what to think.

if these markets become too competitive no probs.. just "invest wha tyou can afford to lose".
  • #255
  • Jun 24, 2019 5:31pm Jun 24, 2019 5:31pm
Gambling is a game in which outcomes are random or irrational. What has preceded the event,whether it be cast of the dice or the spinning of the roulette wheel have no bearing on the outcome of the event itself. Contrarily what has preceded a forex event whether it be a news event or some type of chart configuration (a set-up, algorithm, ect. ) does have a bearing on the outcome of the event. In understanding the nature of those preceding events lies the skill in forex forecasting. For those who cannot interpret such preceding events outcomes are random and therefore a gamble.For those who can interpret them It is a skill and therefore not a gamble. Judging by results from recently published stats from Saxo Bank 71% of their day traders were losers,indicating to me that at least 71% of their traders were gamblers, the balance being skill traders. Good luck, we all need it.
  • #256
  • Jun 24, 2019 5:55pm Jun 24, 2019 5:55pm
The definition at the beginning of the thread is certainly interesting - to play a game for money. OK, we're all gambling, but that's not how I define gambling.

I go with the definition of betting on something with a random outcome - roulette, dice, etc.

So, is a professional poker player gambling? Hell no. The pro has worked very, very hard, studied probabilities AND knows how to read people, and has found an edge that keeps him or her winning more than losing. That's not gambling, in my opinion, because he knows over time, he will win.

I know when I'm gambling. When I really, really want the trade to go my direction, and it goes the other way, and I have the urge to put on another trade twice as big, and when it goes my way I'll feel like a hero, and at that moment I'm willing to lose a chunk because I'm so sure and want it so badly - THAT's GAMBLING. And I don't do it.

If you use proper risk management, risk no more than 2% per trade, ever, and a 1:2 or better risk:reward, and stick to only that, you should make money.
  • #257
  • Jun 24, 2019 8:54pm Jun 24, 2019 8:54pm
I would say that yes, this is in fact gambling.

Gambling (for me) is risking our money at something that is, by majority, a random outcome event.

TA charting, while playing to common scenarios, squarely fits into this category for the super-majority. Only those truly tied to their system, with internal coping mechanisms to avoid chasing and "feeling" something outside of their rules would be who I would call non-gambling traders.

I couldn't put a number to it, but i would certainly estimate that >90% of the posters here truly are gamblers. I would say however, that most of that 90% aren't the roulette or craps gambler type though. The activity here requires far more analysis and thought.
  • #258
  • Jun 24, 2019 11:01pm Jun 24, 2019 11:01pm
It's in our nature to do whatever it takes to avoid pain. If you use proper risk management and trade management you will avoid gambling and trade the-your edge.
Mr. Ed
  • #259
  • Apr 7, 2021 8:44am Apr 7, 2021 8:44am
FX retail trading is gambling
To the people that say -buying a house is a gamble - they are missing the point.
When you buy a house- people benefit from your purchase (solictor/lawyer, estate agent, tax man (broader society)- and typically, you will look after the house and improve it. So when you sell it -other people as well as you will have benefited from what you have done.
With trading - its a zero sum game. Somebody wins and somebody losses.
If you lose, then you are depriving yourself and your family of your earned money
If you win then you are depriving someone else of their money
You are also depriving yourself of doing something worthwhile-work or education.
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #260
  • Apr 7, 2021 9:18am Apr 7, 2021 9:18am
Quoting SFundamental
If you win then you are depriving someone else of their money You are also depriving yourself of doing something worthwhile-work or education.

That's a bold statement from a professional trader
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