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The Swamp

  • #37,141
  • Jun 23, 2019 12:56pm Jun 23, 2019 12:56pm
Visited home after over two years so been busy with family. Took a heavy beating with my last shorts. I booked my initial shorts and kept pending sells at 1.1248 - 1.13 (I hate pending orders) and slept off. Woke up to see some of them triggered. Stop loss was triggered just above 1.13. Pulled out my chart and correlated volume and price like I always used to do and felt like beating myself. I shouldn't have sold at all if only I had looked at my charts. The SL getting hit brought me back to cold reality. Sometimes we get so complacent and ignore the simple things that would have saved us from loss.

Someone shared this chart with me from last year. I hate to predict, just follow the price. However, I feel it might help.
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  • #37,142
  • Jun 23, 2019 1:18pm Jun 23, 2019 1:18pm
Quoting Mitiblotch
Visited home after over two years so been busy with family. Took a heavy beating with my last shorts. I booked my initial shorts and kept pending sells at 1.1248 - 1.13 (I hate pending orders) and slept off. Woke up to see some of them triggered. Stop loss was triggered just above 1.13. Pulled out my chart and correlated volume and price like I always used to do and felt like beating myself. I shouldn't have sold at all if only I had looked at my charts. The SL getting hit brought me back to cold reality. Sometimes we get so complacent and ignore...
We have all been there buddy. "Had I only.." Sometimes, or more times than not, we do overcomplicate it. I still do it. My profitfactor says so.

Was it your chart?
  • #37,143
  • Jun 23, 2019 1:43pm Jun 23, 2019 1:43pm
Quoting PipsMaster23
{quote} Weekly close is bullish!! Hoping we get a retrace to jump in
And previous week was?
  • #37,144
  • Jun 23, 2019 2:23pm Jun 23, 2019 2:23pm
Quoting Mitiblotch
Visited home after over two years so been busy with family. Took a heavy beating with my last shorts. I booked my initial shorts and kept pending sells at 1.1248 - 1.13 (I hate pending orders) and slept off. Woke up to see some of them triggered. Stop loss was triggered just above 1.13. Pulled out my chart and correlated volume and price like I always used to do and felt like beating myself. I shouldn't have sold at all if only I had looked at my charts. The SL getting hit brought me back to cold reality. Sometimes we get so complacent and ignore...
I hate pending orders too. Yet these seem to work better for me than manual entries. Sometimes it's better to sit on your hands.
Focus.
  • #37,145
  • Jun 23, 2019 2:32pm Jun 23, 2019 2:32pm
Quoting frankiev2
{quote} We have all been there buddy. "Had I only.." Sometimes, or more times than not, we do overcomplicate it. I still do it. My profitfactor says so. Was it your chart?
No. It's not my chart. Someone shared it with me. Some guy from Jordan. I feel completely stupid. That move took my by complete surprise and I lost quite some. Rude awakening for me, kind of. Watching to see where this wicked bull ends.
  • #37,146
  • Jun 23, 2019 2:56pm Jun 23, 2019 2:56pm
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} No. It's not my chart. Someone shared it with me. Some guy from Jordan. I feel completely stupid. That move took my by complete surprise and I lost quite some. Rude awakening for me, kind of. Watching to see where this wicked bull ends.
I still see only bottoming on weekly, the bull didn't even start yet. What will people do if it started now, if they are in trouble at these numbers already?
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #37,147
  • Jun 23, 2019 4:12pm Jun 23, 2019 4:12pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} I still see only bottoming on weekly, the bull didn't even start yet. What will people do if it started now, if they are in trouble at these numbers already?
That's why they should have a stop loss. My highest SL was at 1.134. For those who don't use SL, the highest this may get to is 1.146 before correcting down to 1.125-6 area and they can get out with minimal profit.

For me, I still do not believe in a bull, I will buy depending on price action and look to sell the top wherever it is. 1.15 is on the table at this stage, still doesnt mske me a bull. Price has been falling since last year so a good bull run isnt out of the question. I maintain that 1.11 will be broken this year. It's my fallible opinion.
  • #37,148
  • Jun 23, 2019 4:38pm Jun 23, 2019 4:38pm
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} That's why they should have a stop loss. My highest SL was at 1.134. For those who don't use SL, the highest this may get to is 1.146 before correcting down to 1.125-6 area and they can get out with minimal profit.
1.1480-1500 equals 95 on usd index, so that could be an area for a bearish correction, I agree. But who knows...it make break out without any corrections at all. When EU broke down from the 1.24-2550 topping pattern, there were no corrections...it was a 1000 pip crash down. So like you said...shorting this without using SLs might be catastrophic to some.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #37,149
  • Jun 23, 2019 7:23pm Jun 23, 2019 7:23pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1387.6 updated
started with new shorts. small positions GBP 2751, eu 1382 .. Bull is tough.. be careful.. for me 1390 area has some R.. Atm high at post 1385.. atm level 1385. GBP has the most potential for drop.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #37,150
  • Jun 23, 2019 7:43pm Jun 23, 2019 7:43pm
gbp is testing 2745. I hope to see a close below 2745 (day close)
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #37,151
  • Jun 23, 2019 7:59pm Jun 23, 2019 7:59pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} started with new shorts. small positions GBP 2751, eu 1382 .. Bull is tough.. be careful.. for me 1390 area has some R.. Atm high at post 1385.. atm level 1385. GBP has the most potential for drop.
agree for GU.
EU has reversed into an uptrend but not GU : TA wise, what's GU is doing is only a retrace, not a reversal.

FA wise, internal politics in the UK are weighing very heavy on the pair as it's still likely Boris Johnson will become next UK PM which will mean no brexit deal almost guaranteed (at least, it will be the most likely outcome).

Fading current highs is worth as long as bulls failed to break up the area on D1. Failure to break up here will put stochastic in synch so nice setup indeed for 1.260x minimum imo.

If bulls manage to break up, their most likely final target will be 1.296x with intermediate target at 1.286x

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  • #37,152
  • Jun 23, 2019 8:05pm Jun 23, 2019 8:05pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} agree for GU. EU has reversed into an uptrend but not GU : TA wise, what's GU is doing is only a retrace, not a reversal. FA wise, internal politics in the UK are weighing very heavy on the pair as it's still likely Boris Johnson will become next UK PM which will mean no brexit deal almost guaranteed (at least, it will be the most likely outcome). Fading current highs is worth as long as bulls failed to break up the area on D1. Failure to break up here will put stochastic in synch so nice setup indeed for 1.260x minimum imo. If bulls manage...
I dont have a crystal ball that works. eu dropped at a like place several times in the past. Gu has much more potential.. long eur vs gbp looks better.. gbp may e the stepchild of the 3.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #37,153
  • Jun 23, 2019 8:22pm Jun 23, 2019 8:22pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I dont have a crystal ball that works. eu dropped at a like place several times in the past. Gu has much more potential.. long eur vs gbp looks better.. gbp may e the stepchild of the 3.
ST swing in EU is not finished imo. Neither in DXY.

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For GU, BOE will ease like never if there is no deal.
It's going to be an easing contest between all the CBs in the world.
  • #37,154
  • Jun 23, 2019 8:41pm Jun 23, 2019 8:41pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} ST swing in EU is not finished imo. Neither in DXY. {image} {image} For GU, BOE will ease like never if there is no deal. It's going to be an easing contest between all the CBs in the world.
If I knew for sure, I would bet heavily that way. The only way of me knowing, will be in future hindsight.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #37,155
  • Jun 24, 2019 12:34am Jun 24, 2019 12:34am
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  • #37,156
  • Jun 24, 2019 2:13am Jun 24, 2019 2:13am
Looking for shorts now. Will not get perfect entry, acting on weakness
  • #37,157
  • Edited 4:40am Jun 24, 2019 2:35am | Edited 4:40am
Quoting frankiev2
Looking for shorts now. Will not get perfect entry, acting on weakness
Have a pending short at 1.1395 (hate pendings; don't have a good record with them). I don't know if it's a good idea with the German IFO news coming up. Maybe another excuse for spikey spikey if it comes in green.
  • #37,158
  • Jun 24, 2019 2:49am Jun 24, 2019 2:49am
what about 1.1365 as a support I wonder, seems like its holding up decently....
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #37,159
  • Jun 24, 2019 3:44am Jun 24, 2019 3:44am
Quoting frankiev2
Looking for shorts now. Will not get perfect entry, acting on weakness
Minimum target 1393 hit. I did not dare putting on a pending. Not sure if bulls wanted more. Still looks strong enough for higher. Alarms on and wait some more
  • #37,160
  • Jun 24, 2019 3:56am Jun 24, 2019 3:56am
Quoting PayTheLimit
what about 1.1365 as a support I wonder, seems like its holding up decently....
200 day around 1360.. week wise, bulls need to maintain 1390. month support close wise at 1145.9.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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