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The Swamp

  • #37,121
  • Jun 21, 2019 12:23pm Jun 21, 2019 12:23pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Don't let this week fool you, its just an expected correction of last week, bulls are on vacation and still bears didn't do much of a job. Next week bulls will come back.
last week post winner for me was this.
  • #37,122
  • Jun 21, 2019 12:29pm Jun 21, 2019 12:29pm
Quoting chess king
I dont know where I saw 1422 important´, but it may be the end of the range.

I will not be surprised if I see the price on 1.1422.
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  • #37,123
  • Jun 21, 2019 12:35pm Jun 21, 2019 12:35pm
Quoting chess king
{quote} last week post winner for me was this.
u have to take them in price sequence. After that post, it dropped to 1180.. 100 pips below the call.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #37,124
  • Jun 21, 2019 12:38pm Jun 21, 2019 12:38pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} u have to take them in price sequence. After that post, it dropped to 1180.. 100 pips below the call.
yes correct the stop was the low 1107 to 1422
but may not make this target. 1380 and 1414 are important FIbb levels
  • #37,125
  • Jun 21, 2019 12:40pm Jun 21, 2019 12:40pm
Quoting frankiev2
{quote} Pissing into the wind is not a nice feeling. Hate trading countertrend. Will ride it until a new long opportunity shows up. Looking for a target below and risk above. We have a higher high, bears above. Top of range. Atm bullish weekly candle unless today close below 1273 (unlikely). In a range you will have bullish and bearish candles side by side. Minimum usual bull target on break is 1393. Normal target is 1450. 1450 is also 50% of 2017 leg and old weekly resistance. If we do get a retracement from here entry could be in 1252-1275 area....
Out. No more catching falling knifes in this one. But if this is wave 5 on daily we should expect a ABCD correction. I'm not really a waveguru, I just count the lows and highs, it's much easier. Have a good weekend.
  • #37,126
  • Jun 21, 2019 12:43pm Jun 21, 2019 12:43pm
bulls have the day and probably 14xx.. next R i see is 1389.. sometimes it works, sometimes it dont. the last time it was breached, pa passed it 65 pips (like level). But later returned under it. that was last September.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #37,127
  • Jun 21, 2019 1:04pm Jun 21, 2019 1:04pm
Quoting gatorinla
bulls have the day and probably 14xx.. next R i see is 1389.. sometimes it works, sometimes it dont. the last time it was breached, pa passed it 65 pips (like level). But later returned under it. that was last September.
1387.6 updated
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #37,128
  • Jun 21, 2019 1:24pm Jun 21, 2019 1:24pm
CFTC Weekly Forex futures that noncommercial positioning data for the week ending June 18, 2019
EUR short 52K vs 87K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 35K.

No wonder euro is rising so much..non stop..
  • #37,129
  • Jun 21, 2019 1:25pm Jun 21, 2019 1:25pm
I have 1.1440 as a possible target for this move, does not mean it will be all done today... then maybe a retrace from there which would mean 1.1345 would be its new support (once it gets 1.1440)... not sure if this can be classed as summer range as the week does seem to close very bullish and any retrace/dips really should be bought for eventual 1.16s

I cant short it and i cant long it at these levels.... so really hoping we get 1.1260 but this may be wishful thinking...

HAve a good weekend everyone and congrats to those who caught this move, i was waiting for one leg lower to jump on...
Cheers!!
  • #37,130
  • Jun 21, 2019 2:10pm Jun 21, 2019 2:10pm
Quoting chess king
{quote} last week post winner for me was this.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #37,131
  • Jun 21, 2019 2:42pm Jun 21, 2019 2:42pm
Attached Image
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #37,132
  • Jun 22, 2019 3:30am Jun 22, 2019 3:30am
Quoting gatorinla
bulls have the day and probably 14xx.. next R i see is 1389.. sometimes it works, sometimes it dont. the last time it was breached, pa passed it 65 pips (like level). But later returned under it. that was last September.
last time in a like situation was September 2018.
1387.6 is the similar # it crossed it 65 pips before returning about 1 week later. Another number like 1390 was never reached. 1387 and 1390 are very close. Next week these 2 are important, for week close. In September 2018, the 200 day ema was breached. It was a Thursday, September 20 2018. The following day, Friday closed below. A week ending Friday. Thursday September 20 2018 was the only day before yesterday. To close above, since falling below May 2018. This Sept 20 breach retreated, before reaching weeks 1825 R. Pa came within 10 pips then. The difference between now, is yesterday's close is a day/week close. Possibly stronger being a week close.

That's just something us individuals should use our own judgement on. I treat 1360 as a benchmark to set direction. I use those others as variable (1387 and 1390) for false or real b/o. of the 200 day ema. Sunday a possible gap above 1390, would seem more bullish. As well as a gap below 1360, would seem bears are still here. The difference of Sept 20 2018 being a Thursday (day close), and yesterday (day/week/close). May be offset with an open.

The week after September 20, 2018. Pa ranged around the 200 day ema for a week: chart
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #37,133
  • Jun 22, 2019 4:11am Jun 22, 2019 4:11am
Those yellow lines are a bigger tf could help weed out the variables with 200 ema. Every situation is unique. Eventually all trends change.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #37,134
  • Jun 22, 2019 4:30am Jun 22, 2019 4:30am
1390 is needed to close a week above for bulls. Boulder's 1 h is near 60 hours now, at 1282. Some sort of retrace looks more probable each h that passes. Boulder can state the odds. Timewise like Boulder uses, some sort of topping formation may be the real deal. For a st retrace. toward the fluid 1282. 1282 should move higher with time. Those retraces situations become more likely on her time method each passing hour.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #37,135
  • Jun 22, 2019 7:37am Jun 22, 2019 7:37am
Quoting chess king
{quote} yes correct the stop was the low 1107 to 1422 but may not make this target. 1380 and 1414 are important FIbb levels
If that was the disclaimer then. It should be posted at the time. This posting now, is with hindsight. A retrace of 100 pips back to 1180. Is not part of the 14xx prediction. It was not mentioned then. When it did retrace 100 pips after posted, nothing but crickets. Something could have been mentioned about buying that retrace. We all mess up. Lets just have a little honesty about it. I personally think summer range is forming. Going above 1360 has me ready to change that view. Unless the bears come back next week concerning 1387/90 and 200 ema (close wise) is my bias. If wrong, I will say it.

Coming to the swamp each month with a 14xx 15xx + prediction and higher means little. Eventually it will be right. Since its dropped 100 and rose 200 from the drop. Atm the drawdown is = to the rise. Posting his stop in hindsight is a little dishonest.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #37,136
  • Jun 22, 2019 10:02am Jun 22, 2019 10:02am
Quoting gatorinla
1390 is needed to close a week above for bulls. Boulder's 1 h is near 60 hours now, at 1282. Some sort of retrace looks more probable each h that passes. Boulder can state the odds. Timewise like Boulder uses, some sort of topping formation may be the real deal. For a st retrace. toward the fluid 1282. 1282 should move higher with time. Those retraces situations become more likely on her time method each passing hour.
yes Euro came closely to test weekly downtrend stop at 1390...we see next week it will hold at its week close
Looking back, weekly downtrend started on May 13, 2018. there were two times came to close tests. One time on Sept 23, 2018, Euro hit 1814 high while weekly downtrend stop sat at 1824. Then 2nd time on Mar 17, 2019, when Euro hit 1447 high while weekly downtrend stop at 1470. Now its third tests. last Friday high 1378 while weekly stop 1390...
  • #37,137
  • Edited 10:33am Jun 22, 2019 10:21am | Edited 10:33am
This is 4th week the institutions continued to cut back on Euro shorts in the latest COT as of Tuesday June 18, 2019. This week by massive amount 34,462 contracts right before FOMC.
13,134 long contracts were added, and 21,328 short contracts were cut. Now Longs total 162,795 contracts vs shorts total 215,125 contracts .
43% long exposure vs 57% short exposure, which 4% increased in longs and 4% decreased in shorts from the previous week
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  • #37,138
  • Jun 22, 2019 6:26pm Jun 22, 2019 6:26pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} If that was the disclaimer then. It should be posted at the time. This posting now, is with hindsight. A retrace of 100 pips back to 1180. Is not part of the 14xx prediction. It was not mentioned then. When it did retrace 100 pips after posted, nothing but crickets. Something could have been mentioned about buying that retrace. We all mess up. Lets just have a little honesty about it. I personally think summer range is forming. Going above 1360 has me ready to change that view. Unless the bears come back next week concerning 1387/90 and...
ummm I realized I did one thing that was not clear enough, when 1422 as the end of the summer range

I apologize
  • #37,139
  • Jun 23, 2019 9:04am Jun 23, 2019 9:04am
Quoting wasntme
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EU...g-hgffttfrddd/ tradingview reminds me of qcharts back in the 90's LOL i like the simple elegant look

welp i hate when price does that kind of shit to me...i took a loss at first and then i started buying at my lines...heres an updated chart .....i wouldnt be surprised if price goes to 1415 or even 1450 before the fall...which prolly means it will be immediate LOL....remember my monthly dollah chart that gona test the highs....even when that happens i doubt the euro will fall too far since draghi is propping it up
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buy the rumor,sell the news
  • #37,140
  • Jun 23, 2019 10:09am Jun 23, 2019 10:09am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} last time in a like situation was September 2018. 1387.6 is the similar # it crossed it 65 pips before returning about 1 week later. Another number like 1390 was never reached. 1387 and 1390 are very close. Next week these 2 are important, for week close. In September 2018, the 200 day ema was breached. It was a Thursday, September 20 2018. The following day, Friday closed below. A week ending Friday. Thursday September 20 2018 was the only day before yesterday. To close above, since falling below May 2018. This Sept 20 breach retreated,...
Okay, so getting hours away from charts does help clear ones mind. Funny enough, just before reading this post I was looking at the same spot as you, but I was more focused on the action off the lows the weeks before the semptember high. That bottom reaction we saw is what I feel we are missing in this run up. The distance in pips we have made in 21 days, on the august low it made the same pips in 5 days. What I was thinking is that we have not found the real bulls yet, they are somewhere below the 1100 level. We have slowly been pushing lower with weak reactions each time. So I will keep my bear hat on. For now, 1393 looks like a target if it does not turn down directly from here. Two strong daily candles do indicate that momentum will push it a bit more. 1447-1450 is also a level not that far of that might need a test, but higher levels i do not think will happen.

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