The Swamp | Page 1854 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread
Attachments: The Swamp
Exit Attachments

The Swamp

  • #37,061
  • Jun 20, 2019 10:14am Jun 20, 2019 10:14am
Quoting Amir_Forex
{image}
You're breaking my heart, i want to buy lower
  • #37,062
  • Jun 20, 2019 10:19am Jun 20, 2019 10:19am
Powell has the power to fire DT. Not the other way around.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #37,063
  • Jun 20, 2019 10:34am Jun 20, 2019 10:34am
Quoting frankiev2
{quote} You're breaking my heart, i want to buy lower
R U Sure !?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.JPG Size: 168 KB
Patterns have an underlying mathematical structure.
  • #37,064
  • Jun 20, 2019 10:34am Jun 20, 2019 10:34am
Quoting Amir_Forex
{image}
What makes you opt for the 1220 level as floor?
  • #37,065
  • Jun 20, 2019 10:38am Jun 20, 2019 10:38am
Quoting Amir_Forex
{quote} R U Sure !? {image}
I'm sure I want to buy lower. But I do understand that I most likely wont be able to do it. There is a difference..
  • #37,066
  • Jun 20, 2019 10:44am Jun 20, 2019 10:44am
Quoting frankiev2
{quote} What makes you opt for the 1220 level as floor?

to me

Wave 1 = 1.12537

Wave 2 = 1.12197

Wave 3 = 1.13163

Wave 4 = its going toward ...

Wave 5 = 1.13330 - 1.13420

Patterns have an underlying mathematical structure.
  • #37,067
  • Jun 20, 2019 11:25am Jun 20, 2019 11:25am
Quoting Amir_Forex
{quote} to me Wave 1 = 1.12537 Wave 2 = 1.12197 Wave 3 = 1.13163 Wave 4 = its going toward ... Wave 5 = 1.13330 - 1.13420
So it was your first low from 1253 that is your startingpoint in your count. Got it. Thanks, now i get it. I'm impressed with your hedge. Very few can master that.
  • #37,068
  • Jun 20, 2019 2:12pm Jun 20, 2019 2:12pm
So it seems this move up could be the confirmation of a trend reversal... 1.1180 held well and it popped up to 1.1315 ... i am looking for a retrace down to 1.12-30 zones in order to start building my longs, stops will be at 1.1080 with TPs 1.14, 1.15 and 1.16

need the retrace now to get my longs in
Cheers!!
  • #37,069
  • Jun 20, 2019 2:26pm Jun 20, 2019 2:26pm
Quoting Boulder
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CrzHfhZncC0
I hit a few snags. Fell asleep and such. I need to improve drawdown. today makes a week;
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 68 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #37,070
  • Jun 20, 2019 2:43pm Jun 20, 2019 2:43pm
Quoting PipsMaster23
So it seems this move up could be the confirmation of a trend reversal... 1.1180 held well and it popped up to 1.1315 ... i am looking for a retrace down to 1.12-30 zones in order to start building my longs, stops will be at 1.1080 with TPs 1.14, 1.15 and 1.16 need the retrace now to get my longs in
A former Fed Richard Xxx of Dallas (forgot his last name). that knows Powell. Stated something to the effect. "Powell knows he will be fired when his term is up. So Powell will do the right thing". In other words. Powell will not bend to political pressure, to cut rates. Low unemployment, with a good economy is no reason to cut rates. Powell has enough power to fire his biggest critique. By not cutting and hinting at a raise. Powell stated he will act on a trend. Last month's bad employment number is not a trend yet. Next fomc is before NFP employment #. He won't have NFP numbers baked in. Plus he may have something to show his biggest critique. He made the point of saying, he will remain for his full 4 year term. I think he was sending a message to DT.

With the tax cuts and deregulation.. the economy has not grown, as advertised.
Powell's mandate is to try for low unemployment and stable inflation. That is all good.
A China trade deal may further decrease chance of a cut.
The cut is baked in for July by the heard. That dont make it true.
It may take a real cut to pass 1360
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #37,071
  • Jun 20, 2019 2:56pm Jun 20, 2019 2:56pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} A former Fed Richard Xxx of Dallas (forgot his last name). that knows Powell. Stated something to the effect. "Powell knows he will be fired when his term is up. So Powell will do the right thing". In other words. Powell will not bend to political pressure, to cut rates. Low unemployment, with a good economy, is no reason to cut rates. Powell has enough power to fire his biggest critique. By not cutting and hinting at a raise. Powell stated he will act on a trend. Last month's bad employment number is not a trend yet. Next fomc is before...

Thank you for this insight and i agree with the statement made...

i don't buy or sell blindly, but i do see PA developments that happened around the 1.11 zone ( i expected price to be sub 1.11 by now)... but recent PA does suggest that 1.11 is the low for now and price may need to test higher zones before coming back down and breaking... of course i will monitor PA if/when we get this retrace and will wait for clues in the zones i mentioned earlier. i am flat of any trade in this pair for now till i have a clearer indication where it wants to go... if it flies up then so be it, i can't get in at these levels unless i was to short it, but i prefer to wait for better entry for a long or a short... i don't see it breaking the 1.1350-1.14 without doing that retrace first... anything can happen of course.. i am patiently waiting for my levels to make a better-informed decision.

Maybe waiting for next months FED and NFP will make a better judgment, so i may do just that... no hurry to trade here

Thanks again!
Cheers!!
  • #37,072
  • Jun 20, 2019 3:01pm Jun 20, 2019 3:01pm
July FOMC
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 141 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #37,073
  • Jun 20, 2019 3:05pm Jun 20, 2019 3:05pm
Quoting PipsMaster23
{quote} Thank you for this insight and i agree with the statement made... i don't buy or sell blindly, but i do see PA developments that happened around the 1.11 zone ( i expected price to be sub 1.11 by now)... but recent PA does suggest that 1.11 is the low for now and price may need to test higher zones before coming back down and breaking... of course i will monitor PA if/when we get this retrace and will wait for clues in the zones i mentioned earlier. i am flat of any trade in this pair for now till i have a clearer indication where it wants...
that was just something I thought about when he used the wording "trend".. I dont see how he could have a trend if he wont have NFP #. If that is the case, he could have cut yesterday. To have a trend, he needs more data. More than one set of bad numbers.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #37,074
  • Edited 4:07pm Jun 20, 2019 3:31pm | Edited 4:07pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} A former Fed Richard Xxx of Dallas (forgot his last name). that knows Powell. Stated something to the effect. "Powell knows he will be fired when his term is up. So Powell will do the right thing". In other words. Powell will not bend to political pressure, to cut rates. Low unemployment, with a good economy is no reason to cut rates. Powell has enough power to fire his biggest critique. By not cutting and hinting at a raise. Powell stated he will act on a trend. Last month's bad employment number is not a trend yet. Next fomc is before...
NFP is the first friday of each month so you will have one on July 5th too before July FOMC. But anyway, FED is not monitoring employment to cut rates : that's not an early indicator, too much lag. A CB would be insane to wait for a flip in employment to start easing. (*edit : you will need several NFP flop before unemployment rate reverse into an uptrend)
They are monitoring closely all early business indicators to gauge the growth slowdown and they are all nosing down (PMIs, ISM ...)
Moreover, inflation, the raison d'être of interest rates, is soft. FED even revised down their forecast on this front in their projections yesterday, showing margin to cut is there, there is no risk of an overheated economy with a cut at this level of inflation.
On top, US/China deal is very unlikely now, China very expected to let DT corner himself, that will make only things worse.

That's my map in EU, I've already posted it in another thread, but so many different threads here in FF for EU


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-d1-20-06-2019.png Size: 95 KB


No US/China deal ==> minimum 75bp cut in 2019 imo (+ WW Equities collapse )
  • #37,075
  • Jun 20, 2019 4:47pm Jun 20, 2019 4:47pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} NFP is the first friday of each month so you will have one on July 5th too before July FOMC. But anyway, FED is not monitoring employment to cut rates : that's not an early indicator, too much lag. A CB would be insane to wait for a flip in employment to start easing. (*edit : you will need several NFP flop before unemployment rate reverse into an uptrend) They are monitoring closely all early business indicators to gauge the growth slowdown and they are all nosing down (PMIs, ISM ...) Moreover, inflation, the raison d'être of interest rates,...
Their mandate is employment and inflation. Nothing more is in their description. That said, other things help get to that conclusion. Usually 3 data points to make a trend. That one will be the third. ATM they just have 1 bad one. Was my point. I dont disagree things point to 1.14 since the inability to close below 1145.9. Pointing to a particular area, dont take it their. 1360 has to be pushed past before.

week usdx on chart.
q1 close 1231 ended with a long upper shadow (wick)
year closed with a long upper shadow. (wick)
10 days till this Q closes.
day 200 ema at 1260.. (atm pa is below)
day usdx at 96.50.
A Summer, a range is normal.
Maybe it will push past 1360 this time, maybe not.
Maybe it will range 11xx/13xx till September/October
1374 is a larger R too.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 56 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #37,076
  • Jun 20, 2019 5:50pm Jun 20, 2019 5:50pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Their mandate is employment and inflation. Nothing more is in their description. That said, other things help get to that conclusion. Usually 3 data points to make a trend. That one will be the third. ATM they just have 1 bad one. Was my point. I dont disagree things point to 1.14 since the inability to close below 1145.9. Pointing to a particular area, dont take it their. 1360 has to be pushed past before. week usdx on chart. q1 close 1231 ended with a long upper shadow (wick) year closed with a long upper shadow. (wick) 10 days till this...
Sure but FED needs to track other indicators to anticpate upcoming impacts on both inflation and employement. They don't wait for employment to reverse to decide to cut rates as they don't wait for overheated inflation to decide to hike. They don't want to be caught with pants down.

This is what I have in DXY :

ST : 95.7 already unlocked and ready for a test
MT : a break down of 95.7 will unlock 92.6 with extrem target at 91.00
LT : that's for later if things get really bad (recession, US rates to 0, QE etc.. while others CB will have very few options to ease..)

DXY D1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dxy-d1-21-06-2019.png Size: 75 KB


DXY W1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dxy-w1-21-06-2019.png Size: 46 KB


DXY M1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dxy-m1-21-06-2019.png Size: 78 KB
  • #37,077
  • Jun 20, 2019 8:33pm Jun 20, 2019 8:33pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Sure but FED needs to track other indicators to anticpate upcoming impacts on both inflation and employement. They don't wait for employment to reverse to decide to cut rates as they don't wait for overheated inflation to decide to hike. They don't want to be caught with pants down. This is what I have in DXY : ST : 95.7 already unlocked and ready for a test MT : a break down of 95.7 will unlock 92.6 with extrem target at 91.00 LT : that's for later if things get really bad (recession, US rates to 0, QE etc.. while others CB will have very...
sure they use other methods. Those methods are confirmed through inflation and unemployment. Not the other way around. That's why they specifically mention unemployment & inflation in the Fed minutes. Because that's the catalyst for what they do.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #37,078
  • Jun 20, 2019 8:59pm Jun 20, 2019 8:59pm
usd testing 200ema atm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 56 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #37,079
  • Jun 20, 2019 10:09pm Jun 20, 2019 10:09pm
6/20/2019 Levels

RU R3 ----------1.1380
FP R3 ----------1.1368
WP R2 ----------1.1344
RU R2 ----------1.1340
FP R2 ----------1.1333
MP R3 ----------1.1330
RU R1 ----------1.1316
FP R1 ----------1.1312
WP R1 ----------1.1309
FP PP ----------1.1278
MP R2 ----------1.1278
RU S1 ----------1.1267
WP PP ----------1.1254
FP S1 ----------1.1243
RU S2 ----------1.1243
MP R1 ----------1.1241
FP S2 ----------1.1222
RU S3 ----------1.1203
  • #37,080
  • Jun 20, 2019 11:53pm Jun 20, 2019 11:53pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} I guess 1.1260 could be a bit of support now, but I think I'll leave the EU alone today....
today might consider a long scalp there, also gonna consider 107.38/40 on UJ, and 1.3220 on UC, for shorts....
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
58 traders viewing now