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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #3,641
  • Jun 19, 2019 11:50am Jun 19, 2019 11:50am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} You have missed this {image}
true, great eyes you have
but cant the triangle end on the bar after that bull support?
  • #3,642
  • Jun 19, 2019 6:46pm Jun 19, 2019 6:46pm
Quoting Nala66
{quote} Just got to the PC so I can answer this. I have said that the second entry is the most dangerous as this has twice the risk of the first entry. The third and final entry has the same risk as the second entry because the first and second have made some profit.
Hi Alan,
Thanks for sharing a remarkable trading method plus all the time you have put in to help people.

Re Money Management:
As I understand it,
- each of the 3 entries are placed with a 10 pip stop-loss.
- each of the 3 entries are placed with a (hopeful) 40 pip take-profit.
- the first entry is brought to break even before the second entry (@ twice the risk) is made.
- the second entry is brought to breakeven before the third entry is made (this would be 3 times the risk but the profits from the first 2 entries reduce the risk to about the same risk as we had on the second entry).
- If we get a reverse signal we enter a hedge which is the equivalent value of the previous 3 entries.
- If we get a further signal that reaffirms our original trades, we close the hedge (hopefully at a profit) and let the original 3 trades run their course (the target can now be reduced by the number of pips profit made from the hedge).
- If price looks like it will favour the hedge entry, we close the original 3 trades (hopefully at a profit) and let the hedge run till it makes up the required 40 pips (which includes the pips profit from the original 3 trades).

Does this sound right?
David
  • #3,643
  • Jun 19, 2019 7:35pm Jun 19, 2019 7:35pm
Quoting Trade.Time
{quote} Hi Alan, Thanks for sharing a remarkable trading method plus all the time you have put in to help people. Re Money Management: As I understand it, - each of the 3 entries are placed with a 10 pip stop-loss. - each of the 3 entries are placed with a (hopeful) 40 pip take-profit. - the first entry is brought to break even before the second entry (@ twice the risk) is made. - the second entry is brought to breakeven before the third entry is made (this would be 3 times the risk but the profits from the first 2 entries reduce the risk to about...
Hi David.

It is hard to be so specific about the stop distances because the actual trades vary a tad. However having said that you have a good understanding there of the best practice. It could well be the case that even additional entries can be made in a relatively safe manner.

The main point is to construct a fiscal plan which plots the road to glory and you can track your progress as you work through the plan.

For example here is the Polly Plan from the previous post above( 3626 ). You can see that even making small increases every 20 days the annual total can be substantial and that at some stage during this journey you will find your own level to hold at.

Note how this is a much more passive way than trying for 40 pip doubles, this requires 800 pips to double and is much more suited to someone lacking the experience to put the whole trade together. As experience grows then the fiscal plan can also evolve.
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  • #3,644
  • Jun 19, 2019 7:52pm Jun 19, 2019 7:52pm
There are going to be days when much more than 40 pips is on the table, such as yesterday.

A look at the average charts clearly identifies these. It is the average we are interested in and what does price have to do achieve these averages.
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  • #3,645
  • Jun 19, 2019 8:04pm Jun 19, 2019 8:04pm
Quoting Nala66
There are going to be days when much more than 40 pips is on the table, such as yesterday. A look at the average charts clearly identifies these. It is the average we are interested in and what does price have to do achieve these averages. {image}
So it was easy to see on the bright chart that we had some distance up to the next MA pivot. What to me is still unclear is how to trade a situation with conflicting 1H signals. On the way up to the next level, there were numerous H1 inferences with a bearish bias.

At what point do you accept/determine that the bulls will continue?
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  • #3,646
  • Jun 19, 2019 8:15pm Jun 19, 2019 8:15pm
Quoting huskyboy
{quote} true, great eyes you have but cant the triangle end on the bar after that bull support?
Yes but I always take the smaller more reliable target first. I can look at other options later down the track.

Look at this 1 hour chart with the 1) Yellow target 2) Aqua target and 3) the Magenta target currently in progress.

Couple this to the average trying to once again attack the 2727 and we see these targets are achievable.

Note: All three of these are on opposite sides of the RSI waterline and of course the EMA. That is to say the A point is below and the C point is above.
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  • #3,647
  • Edited 10:08pm Jun 19, 2019 9:41pm | Edited 10:08pm
Quoting simon.says
{quote} So it was easy to see on the bright chart that we had some distance up to the next MA pivot. What to me is still unclear is how to trade a situation with conflicting 1H signals. On the way up to the next level, there were numerous H1 inferences with a bearish bias. At what point do you accept/determine that the bulls will continue? {image}
I am not seeing the 1H inferences of a bearish nature you speak of. Only in the last hour or so have we had a bearish signal in the form of a regular bearish div. However this is a ZOO point and there was matching div on the 5m.

Remember also we are trading above the EMA so any signal short should be treated initially as a scalp or a hedge if taken at all.

Those RSI divs you show traded at the 5M level would have been worth a few pips as scalps or hedges.
  • #3,648
  • Jun 20, 2019 12:53am Jun 20, 2019 12:53am
hello nala66, i have a question , as you have taught that we should take trade in the direction , so does the price have to be near the ema when we want to trade as today price is very far away from ema, that is why i don't know which side i should trade today
  • #3,649
  • Jun 20, 2019 1:08am Jun 20, 2019 1:08am
Quoting david321
hello nala66, i have a question , as you have taught that we should take trade in the direction , so does the price have to be near the ema when we want to trade as today price is very far away from ema, that is why i don't know which side i should trade today
Which EMA are you talking about, the 1H or the 5m
  • #3,650
  • Jun 20, 2019 1:11am Jun 20, 2019 1:11am
The 1H is trading above the EMA heading for the 2727, so, on the 5 min chart go long on the dips
  • #3,651
  • Jun 20, 2019 1:22am Jun 20, 2019 1:22am
thank you alen , i was talking about 1 hour ema, i missed the divergance right before 108 bar as i thought price should be near the one hour ema. still learning new things everyday from you . you have changed my vision of forex trading. thank you
  • #3,652
  • Jun 20, 2019 1:25am Jun 20, 2019 1:25am
Quoting Nala66
The 1H is trading above the EMA heading for the 2727, so, on the 5 min chart go long on the dips
But there is also a price to RSI 14 bearish divergence, isn't it? How should we treat this signal?
  • #3,653
  • Jun 20, 2019 1:36am Jun 20, 2019 1:36am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} Hi David. It is hard to be so specific about the stop distances because the actual trades vary a tad. However having said that you have a good understanding there of the best practice. It could well be the case that even additional entries can be made in a relatively safe manner. The main point is to construct a fiscal plan which plots the road to glory and you can track your progress as you work through the plan. For example here is the Polly Plan from the previous post above( 3626 ). You can see that even making small increases every 20...
Thanks Alan,
I'm still at the 1+1=2 basics; but thanks for expanding it (be sure to thank Polly for me as well LOL!).

David
  • #3,654
  • Jun 20, 2019 1:40am Jun 20, 2019 1:40am
Here comes the dip - good short divergence on the 5m. Question is to know how much to scalp this short. Is it when price touches the EMA or when there is a bullish divergence?
  • #3,655
  • Jun 20, 2019 1:53am Jun 20, 2019 1:53am
bull div m5, bear div h1, is this gonna make a bear support on the m5 and a return to the ema on h1?
  • #3,656
  • Jun 20, 2019 2:08am Jun 20, 2019 2:08am
it may bounce of the 15 ema
life is a reflection of what we allow ourselves to see
  • #3,657
  • Jun 20, 2019 2:17am Jun 20, 2019 2:17am
Quoting mikeeating
it may bounce of the 15 ema
true, now we have rsi/rsi bear div m5, bear div h1, i sold the cross off the m5 ema, too early?
  • #3,658
  • Jun 20, 2019 2:25am Jun 20, 2019 2:25am
Quoting huskyboy
{quote} true, now we have rsi/rsi bear div m5, bear div h1, i sold the cross off the m5 ema, too early?
i think we have rsi/rsi bull divergence on 5 minute not a bear divergence, bear divergence is on h1
  • #3,659
  • Jun 20, 2019 2:26am Jun 20, 2019 2:26am
bull looking for support after testing the ema and failing with bulls div...
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Dangerous cause also bear div... dont know if i should hedge at D...
  • #3,660
  • Jun 20, 2019 2:34am Jun 20, 2019 2:34am
Quoting witowito
bull looking for support after testing the ema and failing with bulls div...{image} Dangerous cause also bear div... dont know if i should hedge at D...
witowito i am curious why you buy at that point as bull divergence came a little later, can you specify what you was looking at that time before entreing the buy trade
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