Diversified Trend Trading Approach

Profitable trading is like taking advantage of people flaws, trading people perceptions if i can put it like that.

even before electronic trading short selling existed, they used to trade tulips long or short. (don't limit yourself to trade only long side)

Trading is a human game, as a result emotions affect prices as much as or perhaps more than the news and price movments themselves affect future price movments.

more from soros:

nobody can design a system that can skip opening position before a black swan

Volatility, in and of itself, is not risk; the risk is with the uncertainty in the thing that moves.

When we buy a stock, we exchange a fixed amount of money for fluctuating value. When we sell, we exit fluctuation for the fixed amount. So buy/sell is just increasing/decreasing our exposure to volatility. All investing is volatility, choose a comfort level before entering.

Not only trading is full of Risk, Life too just people are not aware most of the times. (not a bad thing, in fact is ok, think about living every day with fear and in strees.)

Take a walk around a shopping mall with your child on a busy Saturday afternoon.
By the time you leave the mall…

1. … your child will have been observed, if not assessed, by paedophiles
2. … you will have been observed, if not assessed, by people with sexual obsessions and perversions that would horrify you
3. … you will have bumped into, looked at, been observed by or been served by ex-convicts who at some point in their lives committed serious crimes that destroyed the lives of families just like the ones shopping next to you in that mall
4. … you will have bumped into, looked at, been observed by or been served by people with political beliefs, grievances and hates which, if they were described to you, would make you question the merits of democracy
5. … you will have found yourself standing beside people who would seriously consider getting a gun and shooting shoppers at random in that mall, including you and your child.

Yet nothing happened. You were courteous to those people. They were courteous to you. They all smiled at some point. You and your child too.
The individuals described above are all members of tiny minorities, of course, but a Saturday afternoon crowd at a shopping mall is always large enough to have such minorities represented.

Thankfully life in all its eye-popping diversity and normality simply went on. Perhaps you bought a few things. Perhaps your child enjoyed all the flashing lights and a ride on a merry-go-round. Perhaps you treated your child and yourself to ice cream and soda.
Perhaps you missed a few truths because they were hiding in plain sight.

Hello, i like your book screenshots but it is a little frustrating to download the attachment and find that it is not the original document from which you took that screenshot. Please, just write the source if you don't want to attach the book to your post.

Have a nice day.

I'm sorry for this, the books were too big and I tried to post some concepts that I found them interesting.

the 2 books are The alchemy of finance and Soros on Soros

"Everyone must choose one of two pains: the pain of Discipline or the pain of Regret."

"Only the disciplined ones in life are free. If you are undisciplined, you are a slave to your moods and your passions."

No universal truth exists. we create it, it's made of lies. we can say that the truth is a lie

where are we going (ultimately) ? you NEVER know in advance.

I want to thank C because for confusing me lol

he's an amazing trader yet he's full of doubts..

i agree with this statment to a point.

when stanley said about soros that he was ahead of his time in his thinking he didn't joke about it.

"When people lose confidence in a currency, its decline tends to reinforce domestic inflation, thereby validating the decline."

from page 137 is soros speech

"idea that markets know everything is a fallacy" "forward prices are artifacts of expectations and arbitrage -may be only a distant cousin of the market's "true" expectations" Kovner.


kovner and soros are a little bit alike, not only that both of them reject EMH (of course you reject it, if u are able to profit so greatly from markets) but they belive that markets are wrong.

Paul Tudor Jones: kids these days don't even look at the charts anymore , they try to rationalize why something should go up or down.

for the hungry minds:

in my opinion most of the "true" edges/tricks are characterised by 3 things: simple, old, in plain sight.

but the best of them, the more "robust" ones have a fourth characteristic: the human behaviour. the deeper and harder they go agains human nature, against people psyche, the harder to execute (to place the trade acording to you'r approach) all the better. This psychological pattern offers some times nice asymmetric returns because they can hande abnormal events. for example:

"markets trend only approximately 20 percent of the time". this thesis is an edge on itself.
"markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" this one as well.

bouth of them very nice:
people don't like to be wrong, is a pain for us, the pain will be bigger if we are wrong more often than not
people don't belive that price can go and go in same direction for one year or more.
even if at some point they will start to belive in that false/true trend they will not have the convinction to stay with the possiton.
even if they will be able to stick with that positions they will be unable to manage it: they will lack discipline, focus they will not add to the possition.
greed: people want money now in the present, fast, they don't want to wait for the market to reward them

"Edge: going out and doing the work others don't want to do."

"Even disciplined risk takers deal with ego." (when i will have the time i will post some articles about soros, druckenmiller etc.)

"Technology change is the big driver of both wealth creation and destruction"

"There are times when dreams sustain us more than facts. To read a book and surrender to a story is to keep our very humanity alive. The source of my hopes and my dreams in times of total deprivation and dehumanization”

That's well said man. confidence, greed etc. ultimately drive the markets, along with capital. the market is a madman lol

Is it only me that finds many similarities between poker and trend trading ?

In poker there are several types of opponents (market conditions)
I develop a strategy in order to exploit their weaknesses, e.g. fear (market inefficiency)
I place a bet (open a position)
some opponents will fold out of fear and lose (trend continuation)
those who are crazy enough to ride it "till the end" win the pot


P.s. I play poker for fun, never in online casinos as i think they're all scams.
P.p.s. sorry C for calling you the antichrist..

just chillin

Hello!

First post here! I first visited forexfactory around 2010 as a lurker without an account and I read everything I could. As I didn't have any trading capital I sort of shelved my interest in the markets and focused on my studies. I came back to forexfactory last month and stumbled upon this thread and others an I am enjoying reading about, following, and trading the markets in a demo account.

I must admit I am not caught up on the entirety of this thread but I have read the first 220 or so posts and I have a general understanding of the method. It, along with others, has influenced the way I think about trading. I am here to learn as I have not yet traded live but I am doing everything possible to shorten my learning curve and put in the work to ensure I don't blow up an account. I plan on starting my own thread in the near future where I will incorporate some principles learned here along with my own thoughts on trading system development. It will be a place for my thoughts as I learn and a place for other more experienced traders to share their own ideas about how the principles in this and other trend following threads can be combined to form an individualized trading approach.

the most important thing in spreadbetting is.. well.. betting






interesting how AI always beats human beings:
https://www.latimes.com/science/scie...307-story.html

Poker is a very poor choice if we want to match humans vs ai as ai has significant edge over humans in poker but I do think one day ai will beat humans on every field unless we can combine the two efficiently.
Please note this is just an opinion and I could be very wrong.