Spoof's Trend, Level, Signal Trading Journal

I am reviving this trading journal as of September 3, 2019. I will share my trades that are based on price action signals that occur around support and resistance.

Below is my template and the indicators used for those interested.

Here is a video discussing the template, how I determine the levels I use and briefly talking about the price action strategies I am trading.

You got it man!. Subscribed

Good luck mate. (I thought I recognised that Avatar from Nials LTTTM site )

My daily routine is to simply look at the daily charts an hour after the NY close and I look for a price action signal (a pin bar or an inside bar), if one is there then I look for an appropriate swing level where price has reacted in the past, if a level is there then I confirm the trend using the direction and spacing of the 20, 50 & 200 EMAs (I want to see the EMAs sloping, parallel to each other and price away from them) and if all three conditions are met to my satisfaction I place the trade.

Now, here is the important part: if just one of the three conditions is missing or unsatisfactory I immediately move to the next chart and repeat the process. I don’t linger around a chart and try to mentally force a trade condition or over analyze the chart to justify taking a position. The three conditions are there or they are not. The market is showing me what it wants to do or it isn't. Trading is not a guessing game or a wishful thinking game. I have finally learned that I don’t need to be in the market at all times and to just simply wait for the sweetest setups. The idea is to put the odds of a successful trade in my favour as much as I can let the market tell me. And the market tells me by showing me a price action signal at a level where price has reacted before and in the direction of an established trend.

Here is an example trade that I closed yesterday that went textbook perfect for just over 2R which is my usual take profit. During my daily scan of charts I spotted the pin bar, I then looked to see if it occurred at a significant level, and then I looked at the EMA's. All three conditions where present. I placed a pending short order below the low of the pin bar with the stop just above the halfway point of the pin bar's range (in order to get a better RR I didn't use the high because it was a fairly large pin bar) and let the trade do it's thing. I was going to let this trade run longer (I didn't take profit the first time price reached 2R) but I don't want to hold GBP trades over the weekends these days because of potential Brexit volatility - freaks me out a bit . This trade will likely go further to at least 3R but I'll take 2R all day long so I am ok with cutting this short since my plan is to not hold GBP pairs over the weekend.

As a side, the area highlighted in the red box is an example of un-tradeable conditions for me. I simply walk away from this chart and find another one to trade.

The bar before the pin bar was an inside bar? Did you place a trade?

No, I didn't. But it certainly gave me the extra confluence to trade the pin bar. I typically only use inside bars as a continuation trade in an established trend and after a level has been clearly rejected. Since price just broke that level I would anticipate a retrace back to the level (which it did with the pin bar) so a trade on that inside bar may have been stopped out. Any inside bars that form after that pin bar rejection of the level would be fair game to trade as a continuation of the price movement on its way to the next level.

I am always cautious around levels as that's where the market often makes a decision so I need to wait for a clear signal the price it likely to continue on past the level or reject it. I don't just blindly trade as soon as price breaks a level. A retrace very often occurs and that is where I want to look to enter. If the retrace doesn't occur then I'll be looking for potential price action signals like inside bars or a pin bar (in the direction of the trend) as a continuation of the trend to get on board. Sometimes, if after an extended retrace against the trend an inside bar forms and if it is at a level or the one of the EMAs I'll take it is a reversal back in the direction of the trend - sometimes Often, inside bars signal the end of the retracement.

Here is an example of a trade condition I will be watching for next week on the EURAUD. Patience is required to wait for the market to tell me what it may want to do. I have levels in play and an established trend in play now I just need to wait of a price action signal to get me in a position at a place of value and on board the uptrend. I will mostly be looking for a retrace to the lower purple level or a break of the higher one and then a retrace back to it as price then moves to the next level beyond.

Notice how the three counter trend pins failed at the lower level - this is precisely why I have learned to stop attempting to trade counter trend or trend reversals. I am in no hurry to get into a trade so I can wait for the market to show me it's going in a clear direction and then I'll look to get in board. Being flat is better than losing money. I have learned to have patience.

Great stuff.

You are trading the HTF pretty much the way I scalp the 1-min charts

How's that working for you? The one minute charts slaughtered me when I tried to trade them.

Very well. It suits me psychologically.

I specialise in The DAX and that is a perfect medium for scalping.

I used to run very high time frame trades but when I moved to working for myself, I shifted my focus to the razor's edge.

Horses for courses.

So these two counter trend pin bars have just failed an hour or so after Monday's NY open. Had a market short been placed at the close of Friday (or today's open) with the stop placed at the pin bar high it would have been stopped out (unless there was a nice buffer above). Here is a perfect example of why I do not trade against the trend - the odds are against me. The price may have come back for a retracement but how far? Who knows. I'll stick with as much confluence as I can and only trade with the trend. Now, if today's candle closes above the level I will be patiently waiting for a retrace back to the level in the coming days and wait for a price action signal off that level (or the lower one) to go long - with the trend and targeting at least a 1:2 or the next higher level.

ANALYSIS FOR JUNE 17, 2019

Alright. The trading week is off and I have just done my daily scan. I found a nice set up on the EURJPY than met all my conditions. We have a pin bar signal that is occurring at a level and the EMAs are all pointing down and separated and price is away from them. There is a down trend in play so I will place a sell limit at the 50% level of the pin bar range with the stop placed well above the pin bar and outside the 5 day ADR. I am doing this to get a better RR since there is another level close by I want to make sure I can get at least a 2R trade. The risk of entering this way is two fold: 1) the price might not retrace and I miss the trade, or 2) the price retraces deeper, taking me into the trade and then stopping me out. I would normally get in with a sell stop below the pin bar low, but I'm going to give this aggressive entry a try here. An option I have thought about is to split my dollar risk in half and place a sell stop as well as a sell limit that way if the retrace doesn't happen I can still catch the move

ANALYSIS FOR JUNE 18, 2019

Ok...daily scan done and I didn't find any price action signals that warrant any trades today. I am keeping an eye on EURAUD, GBPUSD, GBPJPY, and Oil for price action signals around the levels they are currently at. All of those instruments have trends in place so we just need a daily price action clue to what price may do in the near future.

EURJPY TRADE:
Price action earlier in the day was very bullish and price rejected off the low of June 6th pretty violently (price almost came back to the day's open) so I decided to move my stop based on that price action. June 6th was an bullish engulfing candle after a bearish pin bar the day before so the low area of June 6th produced a large bullish move that I want to protect myself from should it happen again. Normally I don't move my stops unless I am going to trail it to let a bigger RR unfold, but I don't want to take a loss if I don't have to. My EURJPY trade is at 1R as of the close of Monday so I've moved my stop to break even plus a little to cover commission and I will let the trade ride out from here. Hopefully the close down today will continue the downward momentum tomorrow for a nice 2R profit

ANALYSIS FOR JUNE 19, 2019

Not much happening with the charts that are making me excited to take a trade other than a second position on my EURJPY that I'll talk about below. On another forum I am part of a whole bunch of traders were extremely confident about taking a short position off of the huge June 14th pin bar on gold. Of course this pin bar would be counter trend and today the pin bar failed as gold pushed higher...you guessed it, with the trend I am never going to understand this obsession with trading counter trend. The odds are against the trade so why keep doing it? I used to do it all the time and I lost all the time so I stopped doing it. Go figure Anyway...

EURJPY TRADE:
My stop is set to break even plus some on my first position and an inside bar showed up today which I take to mean a potential continuation to the downside. I placed a new sell stop to catch a break below the mother bar and I have adjusted my profit targets to the next level down around 118.800. That is indeed a long ways away (6R for the first position and 3R for the second) but let's see if it gets back down there over the coming weeks. Go big or go home! If the nearing support area around @ 120.794 breaks then I would expect price to attempt to meander down to 118.800 area likely after a retest of the broken level. Coincidentally, I would be looking for a sell signal off the newly formed resistance to add a third position to the pyramid. Conversely, if the trade heads back up this trading session it might stop out my first position for a tiny win and I will delete the sell stop. Worst case scenario is a false break taking me into the second position and stopping me out of both. Since my first position is now clear of loss I am not adding any extra risk to this trade but really maximizing the potential win by pyramiding onto the trade if it continues to move down. I'll manage my stops as the trade unfolds.

ANALYSIS FOR JUNE 20, 2019

No trade setups for me today. There was a smallish pin bar on AUDJPY and a nice one on CADJPY but I already have a trade on the EURJPY so I'll pass on these ones. I am not particularly interested in the CADJPY since it just made a new higher swing low and the 20 EMA is flattening out so the downtrend may be stalling or coming to an end A counter trend pin showed up on EURAUD which is ignored (don't even think about shorting it!). Some other pairs have just broken levels or are close to re-testing levels so I will be watching those levels for trade signals to get on board the trends. Been a pretty slow week

EURJPY TRADE
So I got stopped out for a small 0.7% profit on my first position as price retraced during yesterday's session (recall that I moved the stop as a protective measure based on price action a day or so earlier). I could have left my stop in the original place as the pin bar that initiated the trade is still valid. Hind sight is always 20/20 though. I did move my stop for sound reasons so I am OK with the stop out. I do struggle a little bit with the idea of simply letting the trades play out as they are without moving my stops, but I am of the mind that protecting capital is important and if I can prevent a potential loss then why not? So long as moving the stop is based on logic and price action vs fear of a loss then I see no reason not to be a little defensive now and then. I will continue to monitor these trades where I move my stop and see how often it actually prevents a loss or just simply kicks me out of a profitable trade if left to play out.

The day did finish into a bearish pin bar which was also a false bullish break of the inside bar so I will leave my sell stop in place. I now have a lot of confluence behind this sell stop 1) down trend in place, 2) false bullish break of an inside bar pattern, and 3) the bar finished as a pin bar off a resistance area. Doesn't get much better Sure, I am shorting into a level, but levels break all the time or we wouldn't be able to have trends now would we?? I think it's time for price to make a new lower low

ANALYSIS FOR JUNE 21, 2019 - END OF WEEK

Well, that concludes the trading week. I had one small win based on a break even stop out on the EURJPY pin bar trade that was placed on the 18th (which would still be valid if I had not moved my stop) and the EURJPY sell stop I placed yesterday was triggered today and promptly stopped out with a huge bullish engulfing candle past the high of the bearish pin bar that signaled the position. Oh well, can't win them all So I ended the week with just slightly less than a 1R loss - no big deal. It was a pretty slow week for me, but next week has some potential trades setting up so I will just hang out until an opportunity presents itself. Have a good weekend, traders

ANALYSIS FOR JUNE 24, 2019 - START OF WEEK

The trading week is on. I hope the market brings me some better luck than last week! No stand out trade set ups for me today except for one trade I am going to place a buy stop order on. The EURAUD broke a recent level and has come back down to it. I am expecting price to continue with the up trend so I've placed a buy stop at the mid point of Monday's candle to get me into the trade.

Here is a recent trade I took on EURJPY. The premise of the trade was the break of the level which was also a break of an inside bar on the daily chart. Inside bars tend to break in the direction of the trend particularly when they form on the daily charts. I had a sell stop placed for the breakout. Profit target set to 1.5R.

Here is another trade taken on the GBPCAD. The premise of this trade was a break of the low of the spinning top that followed the break of the recent level. Profit target set to 1.5R with the stop loss above the doji candle. I will now be looking for a price action signal off that level if it acts as resistance.

And here is a recent trade on USOUSD. The premise of this trade was a breakout of the inside bar to the downside. I sold on the close of the pin bar with a profit target set to 2R and the stop just above the middle of the first inside bar.