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Journey to consistency

  • #2,021
  • Edited 5:21pm May 23, 2019 5:00pm | Edited 5:21pm
The up move doesn't look like a typical retracement wave up, 944 hadn't been tested so are 869 and 859 for now no sign for push down
But below there're strong S AND if I'm not mistaken I see HH and HL and I think that explains this surge up from 826 strong S...and 855.9 is a new area of interest for me.
I'm only going to attempt to trade the reaction.

It seems as though I wasn't completely off about HH HL they are determined to push through 944 still no reaction safest point of entry waiting
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  • #2,022
  • Edited 6:52pm May 23, 2019 6:37pm | Edited 6:52pm
I said I was only going to attempt to trade the "reaction" but I ended up trading the action I wasn't 100% sure on how to trade the action or how it looks PA vice but I do know the visuals of reaction and where to expect them but not for action so I've learnt something very useful today

both of entry on action were right considering that I'm only beginning to see how it plays out I don't think that's a disappointment in any way although I didn't stick with my target last being 059 the reason being plain and simple I am not yet confident enough on my ability to properly read the terrain still grappling to wrap my head around S&R and how to detect them accurately ! think I'm finally getting around to it even proper reading of HH HL LH LL I think is coming together nicely

Last point I think to trade action if the trend has been down like today for instance you need HH and HL supported by a reason S it bounced off of S and there was HH and HL when the first action happened few minutes prior Tokyo exit 944

Target reached alright I'm seeing it right! if market tells me so I'll have to stick with what I am beginning to see.

In hindsight today there were three possible entries first should have been out at 944, second and third entry occurred in between 950-059 totaling around 200 pips in a span of a little over two hours (this is why I prefer Nikkei and I can do it in the AM while my mind is still crisp)

I'm also beginning to see how and when I should or could add on to a position and when I shouldn't
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  • #2,023
  • May 23, 2019 7:05pm May 23, 2019 7:05pm
Let's see what happens now....
I have my reaction levels.

HH HL the trend is up.

maybe I'll learn what retracement wave down looks like.
btw even for reaction I think correct reading of high's and low's is paramount.

for instance now I"m looking at 059-065 area this is or was a reaction area and I should be trading this BUT the trend has turned up with HH and HL so I can't trade this I think unless there's LH and LL? I think even for retracement wave down you need LH and LL we'll see we'll see.

I'm just thinking what a "bliss" it would be to be able to follow effortlessly!
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  • #2,024
  • May 23, 2019 7:58pm May 23, 2019 7:58pm
Say you get HH & HL if you can define them right! but where do I go long and on which basis vice versa for LH & LL I think this is where action and reaction comes in..... now I think I truly see and understand "trend" and why you should trade with the trend but timing is everything so even if you can define the high's and low's accurately when to enter and where to exit is just as fundamental as the ability to determine the high's and low's right.
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  • #2,025
  • May 24, 2019 3:23am May 24, 2019 3:23am
Oh well I keep running in circles picking up something new on every run.

I thought I had finally entered long after the PB abc 3 wave....

I have my target ironically I have figured out where to exit but when to enter still remains to be a challenge.
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  • #2,026
  • Edited 7:21pm May 26, 2019 7:05pm | Edited 7:21pm
abc seems to have been competed at 130 BUT 3rd up wave seem to have have been completed leaving me with 4th wave in progress ? (5th wave has yet to be formed I made an error on the chart I think) if that's correct buying from 130 after the abc correction will be a bad bad idea.

I don't know how to trade this it's a big corrective wave if I did see it right (no guarantee)

I'll follow my main high's and low's it looks like there won't be any abc correction for this correction...130 is my last reference low I think by the break of this low it could be sold but where do I exit? for now the main trend is still up but this corrective wave if identified right should be tradable as it goes much further than the minor abc wave.

Ok I think I have my entry point but as for exit 085 looks like it above my main HL.
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  • #2,027
  • May 26, 2019 9:00pm May 26, 2019 9:00pm
I entered short below 161 but 130 I see a double bottom and possibility of a head and shoulder ?
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  • #2,028
  • May 28, 2019 5:51pm May 28, 2019 5:51pm
Seeing and knowing so much is both a blessing and a curse.

Quote
Marcellus Emants
“Only a fool can be happy. For happiness consists of two contradictory elements: contentment and pleasure. Enjoy pleasure and you have no contentment; be content and you have no pleasure. For this reason happiness is conceivable only for those who enjoy themselves without thinking that they will always want more and thus be discontented, or for those who are content without thinking that they have no pleasure. Whoever reflects can never be happy, unless he is a fanatic and thus blinded…thus exercising control over his intelligence with his feelings, instead of the other way round”
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  • #2,029
  • May 28, 2019 10:40pm May 28, 2019 10:40pm
Quoting Piquant
Seeing and knowing so much is both a blessing and a curse. {quote} “Only a fool can be happy. For happiness consists of two contradictory elements: contentment and pleasure. Enjoy pleasure and you have no contentment; be content and you have no pleasure. For this reason happiness is conceivable only for those who enjoy themselves without thinking that they will always want more and thus be discontented, or for those who are content without thinking that they have no pleasure. Whoever reflects can never be happy, unless he is a fanatic and thus blinded…thus...
a little bit frustrating, but I will try to be a fool, at least for a while......
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #2,030
  • Jun 4, 2019 5:57pm Jun 4, 2019 5:57pm
After 5 excruciatingly painful process of self development I'm finally coming to"my" final conclusion about trading.

It's all about S&R action and reaction sounds simple eh ? in theory yes but learning to identify S&R levels alone is amazingly difficult add on "relevance" makes the already complex system even more challenging to even begin to see. Yeah "relevance" is everything when it comes to trading around S&R. I can't do anything more than this for now I guess this is my limit and most importantly this is me.
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  • #2,031
  • Jun 4, 2019 6:21pm Jun 4, 2019 6:21pm
Quoting Piquant
After 5 excruciatingly painful process of self development I'm finally coming to"my" final conclusion about trading. It's all about S&R action and reaction sounds simple eh ? in theory yes but learning to identify S&R levels alone is amazingly difficult add on "relevance" makes the already complex system even more challenging to even begin to see. Yeah "relevance" is everything when it comes to trading around S&R. I can't do anything more than this for now I guess this is my limit and most importantly this is me.
The good thing, unlike most people, is you finally realised how difficult trading actually is. Tbh I have been watching you for several years now thinking when this day is going to come. It is not negative but this realisation is a necessary first step forward without which it's not possible.
  • #2,032
  • Edited 9:29pm Jun 4, 2019 7:40pm | Edited 9:29pm
Quoting skyway
{quote} but this realisation is a necessary first step forward without which it's not possible.
the truth hurts
the bubble has burst
this will take much longer than I initially anticipated or hoped for

after 5 years I'm only beginning to see some fragments of truth as to how price behaves around S&R and correctly identifying relevant levels and I'm giving up doing anything more than this for now maybe ever ?

Elliot wave Dow theory forget them all I haven't even got a proper foundation to go there yet (far away) but I've been building the foundation while I was in the midst of trying to find an easy formula without even realizing it myself - a natural progression I guess.

Nevertheless at this stage in my journey I can't yet bring myself to give it up in other words I refuse to give up not an ego conflict or because I want $$ but more or so because I just want this so bad in fact I don't even remember the last time I wanted something this bad but I'll let "time" be the judge of that I won't fight time no more however what's decided for now is that if it is going to happen for me its going to be S&R not Elliot or Dow and I accept my reality and my limit, I can't be anyone but myself.
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  • #2,033
  • Jun 5, 2019 6:20pm Jun 5, 2019 6:20pm
I see a pattern on a level that's just broke on 5min
I realize that as long as my level is "relevant" it can be traded efficiently

BUT

I can't help but see something more on 1h, part of me I guess just knows deep down that there's more to S&R maybe supply and demand ?
Could it be the final piece of the missing puzzle in my comprehension of S&R ?
I can't be sure...
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  • #2,034
  • Edited 6:47pm Jun 10, 2019 6:00pm | Edited 6:47pm
I am beginning to realize that if price has to move to a "certain" level it will find a way ! regardless of our conviction OR how much we're able to "see" and comprehend BUT the difference is made on if bulls or bears are actually invested in that move and if you can distinguish a mere manipulative climb up to a certain level where the majority of the orders are accumulated at from bulls/bears invested moves, "I think" (and I think I see the imprint) there's a way to detect the intent of that activity and distinguish with a degree of accuracy that's enough to risk your money on. I think this is it FOR ME.

Visual aid is essential so are rules made up of visual aids which are essentially patterns conventional or not so conventional to me it doesn't matter market is complex as is and I don't need to further complicate things anymore I just want to learn to follow along with the right side by "seeing" the imprint that's left behind by the bigger force behind any major moves (70pip as in the case of Nikkei during Tokyo) rather than trying to anticipate a certain outcome or a reaction.
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  • #2,035
  • Jun 11, 2019 5:44pm Jun 11, 2019 5:44pm
yes I went long 3 times to be exact first two tries "wrong"!! timing
the last long hit TP well 8pips shy from hitting the TP.

sometimes our rules are just not good enough even if we begin to see something that could be traded efficiently! AND consistently

I'm still in the process of trying to build my rules and I've seen over and over again that the rules must be clear enough to give you heads up BUT also taking into account "some" variability so that its not so rigid!. I think my rules are clear enough now finally but also flexible enough !! so are the target/entry/SL.

You definitely need 10000h to train your eyes to see the exploitable patterns definitely !
I still have more to cover about 2000 more ?
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  • #2,036
  • Edited 7:56pm Jun 11, 2019 6:00pm | Edited 7:56pm
Trading is so personal, what the other person is doing may not be for you
And there're so many ways to trade so as long it is backed up by the bigger force that actually moves the market
And we all learn things different to one another, more often than not the difference can be vast!
Some learn best by observing, practicing , teaching, theory - truth to be told we don't fit into a single mold
If someone's consistently pulling in green pips backed up by a solid but flexible rules that they trust they must be doing something right
There is so much to learn around here but just as there is two sides to everything - duality of life
This can also be a great distraction
What I have learned during my time here is take everything with a grain of salt and learn as much as you can
But take your path and not someone else's
Take the path that feels right for you
No one knows the right path for you but yourself

I feel like without sacrifice *a heck load of it* on top of passion but that's almost a given if you've been in the game longer than 3 years this can't be done full stop
After all they were right you can't have best of both worlds
You can't take on this enormously difficult challenge half heartedly and expect to come up on top
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE
If you just know it in your gut that this is THE path for you, drop everything else and dedicate each waking hours into your craft, it is your journey
And maybe do something half heartedly
I didn't want any plan B,C or D although there was no absolute certainty that I'd ever make it
All I knew for sure was that if I persevere and keep learning with curiosity some day my effort will be paid and I'll make sense of everything

I persevered because I loved this
I sacrificed because I didn't want to do anything else but this (maybe 1 more project)
Boy oh boy did I have a difficult time that I almost died for this
But it was well worth the torment and the effort!
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  • #2,037
  • Jun 11, 2019 7:49pm Jun 11, 2019 7:49pm
Hmmm change in direction ?
But no more for today.
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  • #2,038
  • Edited 7:21pm Jun 12, 2019 7:02pm | Edited 7:21pm
I went against my rule of only one entry per day and traded 3 times this is where the -18 and +7 occurred I tested my timing concept but sometimes you just gotta do it whether it's a win or a lose at this point to be frank neither I don't care much I'm giving all my attention on recognizing and refining what I have gathered all these years because you learn so much more when you're in an actual trade on a live account than just observing on the sidelines or a demo maybe that's just me anyhow now I'm truly done for the day for the next hour or so until lunch it's going to be a review time.

Pattern recognition I think is pretty much complete, now I can distinguish between the two and untraceable areas at least for me for now with a pretty good degree of accuracy as opposed to yesterday where the real mistake was made on recognition of the pattern not the timing, today however I've unraveled another layer that's to do with the actual timing of the entry and last confirmation for the trade I'm about to take with this critical piece of information not only do I fully confirm the trade but I can also plan my SL and target with a much better accuracy. /Nikkei range is about 45-50pips/

Aside from that today I've also started seeing relevant support and resistance for up and down trends on my TF which also helps determine the timing and provides the last confirmation for the trade. I'm sure there'll be more to discover, see , understand and practice. For the first time in years I'm making a real progress.
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  • #2,039
  • Edited 7:28pm Jun 13, 2019 7:09pm | Edited 7:28pm
Although it did qualify for a long entry why did it go up only 9pips???
So I went on comparing this to the ones that went up or down more than 45pips as far as this pattern is concerned I couldn't find any difference

Remember yesterday I was babbling on about how I'd found the timing trigger but nope I was wrong but today Nikkei did show me how its done and confirmed my observation in real time head and shoulder up yep that was the missing piece and I see that there are more!, now as for my blotter after I spotted the pattern so I realized that this could be going up so the direction was somewhat clear but you never really know do you?! I thought I had my doubts after seeing that this pattern doesn't always have to move about 45-70pips after studying yesterdays move so right off the start I was hesitant to go forward with my previous timing concept but nevertheless I gave it a try, hence the first two losses now for these two my physical SL did not hit but the mental SL so I exited manually.

And for the second from the last entry it was accurate a little too late maybe, but nevertheless *I think* it was on time but I exited manually again out of fear of uncertainty because let's be honest I'm still in the process of mastering this.

At my current standing of understanding direction is clear but with this added pattern not only do I finally confirm the intention of the move but also figure out the entry and SL with better accuracy as for exit well that's going to be another challenge but for now I'll need to focus on this added pattern and figure out the entry point!

I took hold of a loose thread, now I just need to keep on pulling and see what else comes off.
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  • #2,040
  • Edited 7:00pm Jun 16, 2019 6:36pm | Edited 7:00pm
what a beauty

entered long at 69 opened with a gap on a retest otherwise could have been 51 as it found support and broke through 71 now I see but there was no sign of opposition -8pips yes there was R at 71 but still no sign of tide turning just yet as far as my rules are concerned.

I'm starting to follow the action candle by candle but of course it isn't any good until price confirms your view/observation judging by what it's doing now there's a high probability that my observation has been right.

now it's only going to improve from here on no more false aha moments but the irony is that's part of process that no one can't really escape from if they want to keep climbing up the ladder.

and I also realize anything can happen after my entry even though my rules did give me heads up so consistent follow up of price action after the entry for me candle by candle formation is going to be essential I also can't help but notice patterns ; double bottom, head and shoulder develop as time moves forward on my chart scale but that's going to be dealt with next once I have truly mastered this

when I concluded few days ago that my initial criteria for long or short was right well it wasn't completely accurate so I did lot of studying on the weekends using a little hint I have as a guide and now I think its finally coming together nicely.
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