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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #3,481
  • Jun 7, 2019 7:40am Jun 7, 2019 7:40am
Have a good weekend all.
I'll be back to trading coming Tuesday, have been off for a week.
Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #3,482
  • Edited 1:40am Jun 10, 2019 1:26am | Edited 1:40am
Good day everyone,
Frankfurt it is closed so probably london will bring the action of 108...
Wish u all a good trading week
  • #3,483
  • Jun 10, 2019 4:10am Jun 10, 2019 4:10am
Long time?
  • #3,484
  • Jun 10, 2019 4:40am Jun 10, 2019 4:40am
technically should be short as we are under the 1hr, but it is in divergence with the 5, should be a good amount of pips however if it crosses the ema

I could be wrong though...Its how I see it
life is a reflection of what we allow ourselves to see
  • #3,485
  • Jun 10, 2019 4:45am Jun 10, 2019 4:45am
Quoting mikeeating
technically should be short as we are under the 1hr, but it is in divergence with the 5, should be a good amount of pips however if it crosses the ema I could be wrong though...Its how I see it
It went to m5 ema with DIV so i close my longs with some profits and open a short... not clear for me now but after visiting the ema in m5 and under h1 ema as u saying...price should make new low i guess right?
  • #3,486
  • Jun 10, 2019 4:50am Jun 10, 2019 4:50am
Quoting witowito
{quote} It went to m5 ema with DIV so i close my longs with some profits and open a short... not clear for me now but after visiting the ema in m5 and under h1 ema as u saying...price should make new low i guess right?
Thats my understanding, if it fails to cross the 1 hr ema then new low, its stalled at the 5
life is a reflection of what we allow ourselves to see
  • #3,487
  • Jun 10, 2019 4:58am Jun 10, 2019 4:58am
Quoting mikeeating
{quote} Thats my understanding, if it fails to cross the 1 hr ema then new low, its stalled at the 5
This is where it sometimes gets tricky, because I have added my short but sometimes it turns around
life is a reflection of what we allow ourselves to see
  • #3,488
  • Jun 10, 2019 5:04am Jun 10, 2019 5:04am
Quoting mikeeating
{quote} This is where it sometimes gets tricky, because I have added my short but sometimes it turns around
I moved too fast to BE the shorts and got stopped out...
so now im flat just looking how price behaves
  • #3,489
  • Jun 10, 2019 5:07am Jun 10, 2019 5:07am
I just have the one short on which I took at the EMA, I think we should see a new low now and also on the hour as it looks like that divergence has failed

I could be wrong though
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life is a reflection of what we allow ourselves to see
  • #3,490
  • Jun 10, 2019 5:14am Jun 10, 2019 5:14am
Quoting mikeeating
I just have the one short on which I took at the EMA, I think we should see a new low now and also on the hour as it looks like that divergence has failed I could be wrong though {image}
H1 ABCD i think it looks like this now...
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  • #3,491
  • Jun 10, 2019 5:23am Jun 10, 2019 5:23am
Quoting mikeeating
I just have the one short on which I took at the EMA, I think we should see a new low now and also on the hour as it looks like that divergence has failed I could be wrong though {image}
Looks like 50% of that ABCD H1 is holding meanwhile m5 looks like this...
This is why i took my longs(green)
Then at EMa closed and shorts(blue one)
And i think now again longs or hedge those shorts...(aqua)

Is it correct understanding or am I doing something wrong ?

thnks for helping
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  • #3,492
  • Jun 10, 2019 5:37am Jun 10, 2019 5:37am
Quoting witowito
{quote} Looks like 50% of that ABCD H1 is holding meanwhile m5 looks like this... This is why i took my longs(green) Then at EMa closed and shorts(blue one) And i think now again longs or hedge those shorts...(aqua) Is it correct understanding or am I doing something wrong ? thnks for helping {image}
It looks like your doing everything very well, maybe just need to practice with moving your stops, I took the same longs as you did and then closed with that one short the same as you, Its always tricky around the EMA, but with time it gets much easier to see.

im not 100% sure on the blue divergence you have there, I'm sure Alan will shed some light on it tomorrow
life is a reflection of what we allow ourselves to see
  • #3,493
  • Jun 10, 2019 5:44pm Jun 10, 2019 5:44pm
Quoting Nala66
I'm looking at this on the 5 min {image}
Hi Nala66

Have been reading your post in the last weekend, thanks for your sharing, is a simple elegant yet effective system.

However, I have a question, hopefully is not too stupid.

In 5min chart, the fast RSI often moves very fast, and when we see it in the zone of 80 or 20, it is the time that we get ready to open trade, and when we see it makes a U turn, we open a trade (either the main one or hedge). The problem is, when the turn is made, often the fast RSI has already moved quite a distance, and hence the price, so is very difficult to enter at a good price, which also translates to a larger stop-loss.

How should I improve the exact entry point please?
  • #3,494
  • Jun 11, 2019 4:03am Jun 11, 2019 4:03am
Well that was exciting hey!.
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  • #3,495
  • Jun 11, 2019 4:12am Jun 11, 2019 4:12am
Quoting luckyvictor
{quote} Hi Nala66 Have been reading your post in the last weekend, thanks for your sharing, is a simple elegant yet effective system. However, I have a question, hopefully is not too stupid. In 5min chart, the fast RSI often moves very fast, and when we see it in the zone of 80 or 20, it is the time that we get ready to open trade, and when we see it makes a U turn, we open a trade (either the main one or hedge). The problem is, when the turn is made, often the fast RSI has already moved quite a distance, and hence the price, so is very difficult...
I don't think you have the idea quite correct here. If you look at the chart above (5m) you will see on these three occasions the RSI was in divergence with itself. Nothing whatsoever to do with speed, zone etc.

Almost every single day we have a similar setup i.e. Timing, Signal, Target.
  • #3,496
  • Jun 11, 2019 4:16am Jun 11, 2019 4:16am
To now pull the EMA on the hour above the swing high average the bulls have to make a very impressive move north.
  • #3,497
  • Jun 11, 2019 4:38am Jun 11, 2019 4:38am
See how now the 1 H hit the swing high average things start to get more erratic because as far as I am concerned the trade orders are done.

It is this initial run we look for our profits the rest may be considered as scalping. We have to be very careful because a scalp can easily turn into a run of sorts and stop us out repeatedly.

Not only that but it is chewing into our time where we could be doing something far more interesting.
  • #3,498
  • Jun 11, 2019 4:55am Jun 11, 2019 4:55am
Oh by the way I have search all my stuff and couldn't find the work done on averages so my guess is I lost it when my PC crashed.

I don't really think it is very helpful although it is interesting.
  • #3,499
  • Jun 11, 2019 6:41am Jun 11, 2019 6:41am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} Yes I understand your question. With a divergence we expect a return to the EMA and to even cross it and find support. In this case you are looking at bullish divergences going against the trend so in effect these are either scalps (which can turn into trades) or hedges to protect the short entries.. When the divergence fails to cross the EMA you should expect a lower low. When the bulls fail to find support expect a lower low. When the bulls cannot hold onto the support expect a lower low. Your assumptions were correct to go long but this...
still going through your 'notes'

let say on H1 the price is below 26EMA for a long while, is there a point that where we may stop shorting and to go long to avoid/catch the potential reversal? Is it only done by trying? i.e. putting a hedge long trade and it then turns into our main trade and we close our initial short trade?

Also, why do you pick 26 for the EMA? is there any market psychological/behaviour reason? or 26 is just the best match for GBPUSD?

Thanks for your sharing
  • #3,500
  • Edited 7:20am Jun 11, 2019 6:49am | Edited 7:20am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} I don't think you have the idea quite correct here. If you look at the chart above (5m) you will see on these three occasions the RSI was in divergence with itself. Nothing whatsoever to do with speed, zone etc. Almost every single day we have a similar setup i.e. Timing, Signal, Target.
Hopefully you can correct my thinking.

So in the attached, I have used two red arrows to show the entries, they are valid entries as far as RSI is concerned, after seeing RSI has made a U turn, it is likely to buy at the end (the high) of these candles and see a retracement of its own candle length.

How should keep my stop loss as tight as possible, or I enter at better price?
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