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Position Trading AUD/USD

  • #101
  • May 30, 2019 10:54pm May 30, 2019 10:54pm
Quoting danc
How dit you know the TICK traders were setting a top at 6933..?? i think you mentioned...
good question! i cant post a pic now but might do in the future, can't give away all my info

in short it was the tickvol distribution at ~6920 tapering down as price went up but then 6933 was getting a lot of ticks on it and above it there was no price action.. so i gussed someone was selling it hard there. time passed and i got bored thinking they might try run up but they didn't get to do that and price fell to 6900, baby!

i think i sold it once or twice but not aggressively enough only to get +1 stops eaten up as I have been away. oh well, that's business.

looks like people are buying 6900 also so somethings gotta give soon. if it doesn't before rate news it could whipsaw like a banshee. gotta try cover it somehow. aussie likes to get a range like this before rates so will have to catch it better next time.
grist for the mill
  • #102
  • Edited May 31, 2019 1:58am May 30, 2019 11:17pm | Edited May 31, 2019 1:58am
puts and calls on aussie for 8 days

the 70c 35dte puts seem to be growing
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so some rough numbers here but the open interest 0-30 day puts under 6925 seems to massively outweigh the calls 6:1! even to 6750

so if price rises over 6950 in 30 days it could be interesting, otherwise most bets say it will keep going down.. or maybe people are just trying to cover their longs? we shall see.

added to this in 8 days nearly 5k calls above 6950 will expire
grist for the mill
  • #103
  • Edited 10:16am May 31, 2019 9:58am | Edited 10:16am
gold dragging it all about - i figured gold was the most manipulated but to see it ending up like this is post worthy sensible copper doesnt care - brave to sell gold now
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grist for the mill
  • #104
  • May 31, 2019 10:47am May 31, 2019 10:47am
he wrote it because he had nothing better to do.. legend.

Inserted Video
grist for the mill
  • #105
  • Edited Jun 3, 2019 12:23am Jun 2, 2019 11:31pm | Edited Jun 3, 2019 12:23am
Quoting JackJones
gold dragging it all about - i figured gold was the most manipulated but to see it ending up like this is post worthy sensible copper doesnt care - brave to sell gold now {image}


trick was to buy copper this morning.. i thought about it and was going to but never did - Memoirs of missed trades.

so i've decided to sell rallies on nzdusd as an orderbook trade. not super confident about it but worth a shot. a/j worked out okay last week so why not.

aussie tick action is at 6933 ie. a potential backflip zone, not to be confused by a reversal zone.

i'd buy 6934 if it wasn't for the news tomorrow, instead i'll keep selling rallies into the res as price is being pulled back to 7000 where there is a lot of action.
grist for the mill
  • #106
  • Jun 3, 2019 7:28am Jun 3, 2019 7:28am
Quoting JackJones
{quote} good question! i cant post a pic now but might do in the future, can't give away all my info in short it was the tickvol distribution at ~6920 tapering down as price went up but then 6933 was getting a lot of ticks on it and above it there was no price action.. so i gussed someone was selling it hard there. time passed and i got bored thinking they might try run up but they didn't get to do that and price fell to 6900, baby! i think i sold it once or twice but not aggressively enough only to get +1 stops eaten up as I have been away....
Thks
  • #107
  • Jun 10, 2019 8:04am Jun 10, 2019 8:04am
HEading for a ping ping zone so watch out.

hate to be captain hindesight but I saw the AUD tick distribution over the weekend and it was a classic sell! , I'd post the chart but I don't have those charts on ths laptop because im working remote again, teh suck!

anyway, will post that chart on the weekend maybe. aussie faling back into a zone by the looks.

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in other news those puts expiring under 6950 and 6900 could be attracting price
grist for the mill
  • #108
  • Jun 10, 2019 8:29am Jun 10, 2019 8:29am
interesting, either the correlation is decreasing or AUD is lagging some metals here, rate news pressure squeezing it down.. perhaps it might pop up higher in the medium term if gold can hold out.
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grist for the mill
  • #109
  • Edited 5:57pm Jun 24, 2019 5:33pm | Edited 5:57pm
expecting something : ~ 27/ 6
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grist for the mill
  • #110
  • Jun 24, 2019 7:30pm Jun 24, 2019 7:30pm
WHAT..?? in your opinion
  • #111
  • Jun 24, 2019 7:33pm Jun 24, 2019 7:33pm
Quoting danc
WHAT..?? in your opinion
dont worrie abt answer..i read other thred
  • #112
  • Jul 23, 2019 5:36am Jul 23, 2019 5:36am
copper still looks like a good bet
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grist for the mill
  • #113
  • Jul 27, 2019 11:21pm Jul 27, 2019 11:21pm
plan for next week
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grist for the mill
  • #114
  • Edited Jul 31, 2019 6:07pm Jul 30, 2019 11:15pm | Edited Jul 31, 2019 6:07pm
still waiting for two cycles to 7-8th August and back to volume at 70even to maybe sell some and see what happens
grist for the mill
  • #115
  • Edited 8:35am Aug 18, 2019 6:21am | Edited 8:35am
my AUD/usd exposure is net long by a tiny bit so just going to buy dips and sell rallies

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looking at aud/nzd it might be a good sell at these highs

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it seems like a battle of pitch forks is playing out

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also going to open an account with IC markets *note to self*

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possibly price under 6800 for 47-50 days so will be watching to see what happens if it breaks / closes above.
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grist for the mill
  • #116
  • Aug 23, 2019 12:29am Aug 23, 2019 12:29am
Quoting JackJones
looking at aud/nzd it might be a good sell at these highs {image}
Taking half off at 1.0574 will let the rest ride.
grist for the mill
  • #117
  • Aug 25, 2019 7:06am Aug 25, 2019 7:06am
i closed my aud/nzd shorts will maybe open it again at 1.0570ish depending how the week starts. if we get to 1.0510 might buy it..

next weeks plan: will try to get short on this provided it doesn't gap on open, if it does i'll sell a retrace (maybe), a push to 9350 will add confidence.

may trumps tweets be in your favor
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grist for the mill
  • #118
  • Edited 7:21am Aug 28, 2019 7:05am | Edited 7:21am
Got in on a grind lower against USD and SGD

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#gristforthemill
grist for the mill
  • #119
  • Aug 28, 2019 7:20am Aug 28, 2019 7:20am
plan of attack for aud and close of this week- if 6730 doesn't break by friday it could be to the upside next week.

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grist for the mill
  • #120
  • Edited 1:57am Aug 29, 2019 12:37am | Edited 1:57am
6730 broke during Asia so lets see how the poms take the news, could be some rock and roll action here as it's a battle/control point (imo). might sell a bit more if we retest 6730

if we get to 6692 tonight ill close shorts.

aud/sgd tumbling, knowing when to get out can be difficult, 0.9314 look like a decent exit (if we get there).
grist for the mill
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