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  • #36,421
  • Jun 7, 2019 5:59pm Jun 7, 2019 5:59pm
gbp monday could move eu some.. the better chance is midweek.. plus mexico and tariffs next week.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #36,422
  • Jun 7, 2019 7:03pm Jun 7, 2019 7:03pm
This is what I have... One must ask if there will be a follow through on the EU, the circle on my eu chart shows the move up from 1.13 which ultimately broke down... I knew this and kept saying in previous posts that 1.13 would eventually break.... This time I don't know - we could be in for a bigger impulsive move up... 1.16 missed as did 1.26.

While my DXY chart sits at support and is at a dangerous place to break down.... eu might be fooling people ready for a sell off. Having said that, I am afraid I see no weakness in euro after this week so I guess I will need to wait for clues next week... This can still turn around - DXY looks like a great place to buy with small risk - I won't do it.

My 1.08 target still stands... for now
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  • #36,423
  • Jun 7, 2019 7:31pm Jun 7, 2019 7:31pm
i think you are complicating things too much. Sell at R, buy at support. So what, you lose a few pips if it goes up. If you wait to get a sell signal it will have already dropped much more. I dont know why people are afraid to lose a few pips. People seem to let it drop 70 pips then enter short. Meanwhile, as soon as they get in. It retraces 35 pips. So they close with a bigger loss than the original risk.

No new tariffs on Mexico monday.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #36,424
  • Jun 7, 2019 7:35pm Jun 7, 2019 7:35pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} usdx day chart. 200 ema. B Bands show oversold into 200 ema. The mirror image of eu. eu can break it. Or an optimal buy on usd, with little drawdown was/is possible around eu 1369 area. {image}
Lets hope Dollar 200 day ema holds the support as before.... beautiful chart. thanks Gator...
  • #36,425
  • Jun 7, 2019 7:48pm Jun 7, 2019 7:48pm
Continuing for 2nd week, institutions had a modest decrease in net short , which was shown in the latest COT as of Tuesday, June 4, 2019.
The institutions net short Euro positions decreased this week by 12,080 contracts ,
4,582 long positions were added, and 7,498 short positions were cut. Now Longs total 155,711 contracts vs shorts total 243,322 contracts .
31% long exposure vs 61% short exposure, which 1% increased in longs and 1% decreased in shorts from the previous week
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  • #36,426
  • Jun 7, 2019 7:57pm Jun 7, 2019 7:57pm
Quoting Boulder
Continuing for 2nd week, institutions had a modest decrease in net short , which was shown in the latest COT as of Tuesday, June 4, 2019. The institutions net short Euro positions decreased this week by 12,080 contracts , 4,582 long positions were added, and 7,498 short positions were cut. Now Longs total 155,711 contracts vs shorts total 243,322 contracts . 31% long exposure vs 61% short exposure, which 1% increased in longs and 1% decreased in shorts from the previous week {image}
Since then its testing 200.. Next week if it hasn't broken Wednesday, they may short. We got some big news early Wednesday. That may affect next week's COT, being on the same day.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #36,427
  • Jun 7, 2019 8:10pm Jun 7, 2019 8:10pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Since then its testing 200.. Next week if it hasn't broken Wednesday, they may short. We got some big news early Wednesday. That may affect next week's COT, being on the same day.
of course opposite with closes above.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #36,428
  • Edited 11:19am Jun 8, 2019 12:34am | Edited 11:19am
Quoting gatorinla
i think you are complicating things too much. Sell at R, buy at support. So what, you lose a few pips if it goes up. If you wait to get a sell signal it will have already dropped much more. I dont know why people are afraid to lose a few pips. People seem to let it drop 70 pips then enter short. Meanwhile, as soon as they get in. It retraces 35 pips. So they close with a bigger loss than the original risk. No new tariffs on Mexico monday.
I think this is the best post of all. I guess some people trade without a stop loss (and don't even know how to or cannot hedge) hence the fear. Simple thing: Sell resistance, buy support. Have a stop loss. If it hits then on to the next trade.That you dxy chart with price sitting on 200 ema is quite telling. If anything I have sold EU at yesterday's highs and will get out with profit. I'll sell again if price goes up. Buying EU here doesn't make sense to me for now.

I shared a chart yesterday from a guy who makes chart months ahead and he's accuracy is usually one the best I have ever known. The chart he made in March when price was at 1448 (FOMC spike) showed a move down to 1111 and a bounce to 1340 and then a furious move down to 1.07. All these figures plus minus 20 pips. Even though he isn't perfect (I don't always agree with him), I respect his charts and foresight so I'm always careful when trading against him. Good luck to both buyers and sellers.
  • #36,429
  • Jun 8, 2019 3:46am Jun 8, 2019 3:46am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} usdx day chart. 200 ema. B Bands show oversold into 200 ema. The mirror image of eu. eu can break it. Or an optimal buy on usd, with little drawdown was/is possible around eu 1369 area. {image}
Yes, was looking at the same USD chart. I am not expecting anything big next week, maybe a correction and then the week after is FED and BOE, thats when I expect another USD drop. We will see, if it works out.

My USD target is still 91-92, once the monthly chart closes below 95(ideally this month).
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #36,430
  • Jun 8, 2019 7:24am Jun 8, 2019 7:24am
Quoting Amir_Forex
{image}
on the month chart, starting mid 2014. Is this pattern valid? If yes, what is the target?
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #36,431
  • Jun 8, 2019 7:34am Jun 8, 2019 7:34am
Inserted Video

one more to go
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #36,432
  • Jun 8, 2019 8:38am Jun 8, 2019 8:38am
Month chart I can see a Cypher target in 0.99xx

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  • #36,433
  • Edited 11:50am Jun 8, 2019 10:13am | Edited 11:50am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Since then its testing 200.. Next week if it hasn't broken Wednesday, they may short. We got some big news early Wednesday. That may affect next week's COT, being on the same day.
One year chart using CCI.. when 200+ hits.. bears are getting ready ...
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  • #36,434
  • Jun 8, 2019 11:28am Jun 8, 2019 11:28am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} One year chart using CCI.. when 200+ hits.. bears are getting ready ... {image}
Prolly make a new HIGH then DROP
EU WEEKLY
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A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #36,435
  • Jun 8, 2019 11:39am Jun 8, 2019 11:39am
Quoting ill_be_back
{quote} Prolly make a new HIGH then DROP EU WEEKLY {image}
I see 44.1 ratio , 1365 , that is what Gator talked about too... got it.. thanks...
  • #36,436
  • Jun 8, 2019 12:47pm Jun 8, 2019 12:47pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} One year chart using CCI.. when 200+ hits.. bears are getting ready ... {image}
Whats with all the numbers? they make no sence, except if pointing out the extremes. But then you missed some, but extremes can be found in most "laggicators".

I have a hard time thinking this should rise anywhere in months to come. A last spike up towards 1365-70 is the risk next week. It's so amazing this past week how everyone just turned to full blown bulls and now 1.6000 is comming when reading around the interwebs. I still have targets from 2008-09 and 2009-11 that point towards 1.0020 and 0.9600 area that I believe needs to get hit first before any major bull run. I will say the last weeks looks very choppy, but then again, not very bullish either. But a higher low now on bigger charts would make a big change for a long time.

1.1365 ish is an old dinosaur level on the big charts working already in 1997.
  • #36,437
  • Edited 2:01pm Jun 8, 2019 1:40pm | Edited 2:01pm
Quoting frankiev2
{quote} Whats with all the numbers? they make no sence, except if pointing out the extremes. But then you missed some, but extremes can be found in most "laggicators". I have a hard time thinking this should rise anywhere in months to come. A last spike up towards 1365-70 is the risk next week. It's so amazing this past week how everyone just turned to full blown bulls and now 1.6000 is comming when reading around the interwebs. I still have targets from 2008-09 and 2009-11 that point towards 1.0020 and 0.9600 area that I...
For you,, not for me.. I use the indicators to make money... I use whatever works....we play for the odds ...but I dont use peoples opinion much ...that is for sure...
this is just like saying, why we bother to use 200 day moving average, why we even use death cross? they are all useless... I definitely value more on indicators than a person's comments.
  • #36,438
  • Jun 8, 2019 1:49pm Jun 8, 2019 1:49pm
nothing work 100% but your brain.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #36,439
  • Jun 8, 2019 2:40pm Jun 8, 2019 2:40pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} For you,, not for me.. I use the indicators to make money... I use whatever works....we play for the odds ...but I dont use peoples opinion much ...that is for sure... this is just like saying, why we bother to use 200 day moving average, why we even use death cross? they are all useless... I definitely value more on indicators than a person's comments.
But if you want it to make sense for other people then some explaning would be in place instead of smashing up something in an attempt to look cool. And if you dont like other people asking questions then you're at the wrong place.

So i didnt ask about your use of indicator. I ask about the numbers? The easy thing would have been maybe explaining what you wanted to show with the numbers!?
  • #36,440
  • Jun 8, 2019 5:25pm Jun 8, 2019 5:25pm
Quoting frankiev2
{quote} But if you want it to make sense for other people then some explaning would be in place instead of smashing up something in an attempt to look cool. And if you dont like other people asking questions then you're at the wrong place. So i didnt ask about your use of indicator. I ask about the numbers? The easy thing would have been maybe explaining what you wanted to show with the numbers!?
It kinda like walking in on the tale end of a joke. When someone has been here a while and already explained something. The guy walking in late only heard punchline. In this case the joke was told for over a year. She gained a reputation as a solid trader.
anyway 200 day ema is a good measure for bulls versus bears. 1367 1384..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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