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The Swamp

  • #36,201
  • Jun 5, 2019 8:00am Jun 5, 2019 8:00am
Wow, the NFP really did disappoint. Hard to get into a move like that. Makes you wonder what a mess the rest of the week and especially Friday will be like. The Fed is going to have to cut interest rates with these kinds of numbers. I'm not sure how much longer there will be a middle class in the USA, if there is really one now.
  • #36,202
  • Jun 5, 2019 8:13am Jun 5, 2019 8:13am
rate cutting in June is now given a 25% chance.. 1332 test looks better now. even a 200 ema test 1371/72. 1315 was a missed norm.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #36,203
  • Jun 5, 2019 8:24am Jun 5, 2019 8:24am
The media wants all of us to believe in rate cut. But I refuse to speculate until it actually happens. Powell made open ended statements yesterday. Trump could meet the Chinese president at the summit and things take a different shape. Powell andsome of the FOMC guys believe the economy is doing well, and Powell agreed that rate cut would only be on the table if tarriff fight continues.
  • #36,204
  • Jun 5, 2019 8:27am Jun 5, 2019 8:27am
next batter-up ism
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #36,205
  • Edited 8:43am Jun 5, 2019 8:30am | Edited 8:43am
Quoting Mitiblotch
The media wants all of us to believe in rate cut. But I refuse to speculate until it actually happens. Powell made open ended statements yesterday. Trump could meet the Chinese president at the summit and things take a different shape. Powell andsome of the FOMC guys believe the economy is doing well, and Powell agreed that rate cut would only be on the table if tarriff fight continues.
that employment news has little to do with tariffs. AJ indicating a big drop has nothing to do the media. tariffs would amplify what AJ already indicated.
Bank A loaned $ to widget maker A. Widget maker makes widgets for Ford. Ford has a contract with widgets for a contracted price. Widget maker A is losing money selling to Ford. Widget maker A goes out of business. Bank A eats the loan. Ford gets new widget maker B to make widgets at a higher price. Ford has to raise prices so sales decline. We got the making of a possible, 2008 type, early liquidity crises.

world wise when the U.S. catches a cold. The rest do worse.

Children should not be allowed to play with matches.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #36,206
  • Jun 5, 2019 8:45am Jun 5, 2019 8:45am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} that employment news has little to do with tariffs. AJ indicating a big drop has nothing to do the media.
There was an NFP some months ago we saw similar employment report and that was when the US economy was doing so well with high GDP. Currently US unemployment is at all time lows, so it's possible jobs added should reduce. Who do you employ when majority are employed already?

This is just my layman understanding.
  • #36,207
  • Edited 9:11am Jun 5, 2019 8:57am | Edited 9:11am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote}We got the making of a possible, 2008 type, early liquidity crises. world wise when the U.S. catches a cold. The rest do worse. Children should not be allowed to play with matches.
That was a crazy time. I can't imagine trading with that kind of volatility 100 to 300 pip moves every day for months, mostly in a single direction.

Potentially looking for another nibble on the long side here after we've seen the hourly close.

Scratch that, that's a bearish close. Sidelines.

We might have hit a key demand level on DX - H4. Need to get on my PC to see what caused such an ugly hourly candle.
  • #36,208
  • Jun 5, 2019 9:13am Jun 5, 2019 9:13am
Quoting C-12
{quote} That was a crazy time. I can't imagine trading with that kind of volatility 100 to 300 pip moves every day for months, mostly in a single direction. Potentially looking for another nibble on the long side here after we've seen the hourly close.
after July 4 weekend 2008. most news, good or bad, was good for usd. At that time, the ecb wasn't cutting. Each situation is unique. AJ is a pulse of the world economy. Its indicating worldwide future economic problems. Safety may be yen and usd.

The Fed cutting rates while ecb didnt cut. Had the opposite affect than most times. The usd got stronger comparable.
Atm the German bund is negative. Compared to 2008, the usd would have more advantage than 2008 today. It could amplify usd strength compared to 2008.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #36,209
  • Edited 9:36am Jun 5, 2019 9:19am | Edited 9:36am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} she did.. News kicked it up some into R. keep it above 1156/51 now.. below 1156 not so good with options expiring. adp # is the lowest since 2010. Still in line with AJ {image}
testing 1256
typo 1156 should be 1256
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #36,210
  • Jun 5, 2019 9:30am Jun 5, 2019 9:30am
it dipped below 1256.5.. pa is a little less bullish than before.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #36,211
  • Jun 5, 2019 9:32am Jun 5, 2019 9:32am
Lets hope this volatility now sticks on eur usd

Silly pair been silly for far too long. On another note, need a close below 1.1215 to start
  • #36,212
  • Jun 5, 2019 9:33am Jun 5, 2019 9:33am
Quoting gatorinla
it dipped below 1256.5.. pa is a little less bullish than before. {image}
Found the zone that caused the rejection on DX. Now sandwiched between two levels.

A key H1/H4 close for me coming up. I think the bull is still intact atm.
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  • #36,213
  • Jun 5, 2019 9:42am Jun 5, 2019 9:42am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Found the zone that caused the rejection on DX. Now sandwiched between two levels. A key H1/H4 close for me coming up. I think the bull is still intact atm. {image}
usd 96.64 area on month may be supportive. below 96.77 on week is extended.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #36,214
  • Jun 5, 2019 10:05am Jun 5, 2019 10:05am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} usd 96.64 area on month may be supportive. below 96.77 on week is extended.
That PA is ugly. Laid down a hedge short here.

Also out of GU. was a reasonable ride of 100 pips.
  • #36,215
  • Jun 5, 2019 10:08am Jun 5, 2019 10:08am
Quoting Amir_Forex
{image}

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Patterns have an underlying mathematical structure.
  • #36,216
  • Jun 5, 2019 10:08am Jun 5, 2019 10:08am
Now that recession a big possibility. Whats the chance of trumps influence on markets?
  • #36,217
  • Jun 5, 2019 10:09am Jun 5, 2019 10:09am
Quoting Amir_Forex
{quote} {image}
What is your sell exit points?
  • #36,218
  • Jun 5, 2019 10:11am Jun 5, 2019 10:11am
Quoting C-12
{quote} That PA is ugly. Laid down a hedge short here. Also out of GU. was a reasonable ride of 100 pips.
1273 or 1264 didnt support eu. h close below 1253 on h should push down some. AJ is held up on air.. Any flight to safety should help usd. Give it a minute or a few months.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #36,219
  • Jun 5, 2019 10:16am Jun 5, 2019 10:16am
EURUSD should buy from 1.1250 level until at least 1.1300

From there, one can re-assess.

Happy trading guys!
  • #36,220
  • Jun 5, 2019 10:17am Jun 5, 2019 10:17am
Quoting pipcenturion
EURUSD should buy from 1.1250 level until at least 1.1300 From there, one can re-assess. Happy trading guys!
Thanks pipcenturion. Lets see if it works
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