M5/15 RSI 50/50 Test Journal | Page 28 | Forex Factory

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M5/15 RSI 50/50 Test Journal

  • #541
  • May 31, 2019 11:51am May 31, 2019 11:51am
You can do a simple back test just using 0.8 of sl as tp. All hard sl tp. The winning rate can be quite high if use with quality set up candle.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #542
  • May 31, 2019 5:49pm May 31, 2019 5:49pm
Quoting Inthebox
You can do a simple back test just using 0.8 of sl as tp. All hard sl tp. The winning rate can be quite high if use with quality set up candle.
I think I will - and already I know that at least a few of breakeven trades went to at least 80%.
And going forward I will consider employing this strategy.
I organize my work in cycles of 30 trades each and I just closed my 30th trade.
So for the next 30-trade cycle I will test out the 0.8:1 strategy with hard stops and targets.
Thanks for the suggestion.
  • #543
  • May 31, 2019 5:50pm May 31, 2019 5:50pm
This trade took off after a bit of a false start.
Once it took off it never crossed above the centre level of the Keltner Channel so I let it run.
I did decide to cash in at a 3:1 target as it was minutes away from the NY close for the weekend.
It's a really nice feeling after having three full loses in a row.
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  • #544
  • Edited 11:24pm May 31, 2019 10:40pm | Edited 11:24pm
Quoting pipShine
This trade took off after a bit of a false start. Once it took off it never crossed above the centre level of the Keltner Channel so I let it run. I did decide to cash in at a 3:1 target as it was minutes away from the NY close for the weekend. It's a really nice feeling after having three full loses in a row. {image}
you really caught this trend which started when price was not able to close above london open line.

m15 price remaining in kc lower channel below median line. green rsi did not cross above red 13 sma.

also observed views from different perspectives-
m5 price remaining within kc not closing above the upper kc. rsi red 13 sma did not cross above yellow 34 sma.
m1 rsi yellow 34 sma did not cross above the 50 level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 44 KB
Attached Images
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 MACD_OsMA_4ColorH_2LVar__mtf.mq4   7 KB | 196 downloads
File Type: ex4 MACD_OsMA_4ColorH_2LVar__mtf.ex4   8 KB | 180 downloads
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #545
  • May 31, 2019 11:01pm May 31, 2019 11:01pm
Quoting pipShine
{quote} I think I will - and already I know that at least a few of breakeven trades went to at least 80%. And going forward I will consider employing this strategy. I organize my work in cycles of 30 trades each and I just closed my 30th trade. So for the next 30-trade cycle I will test out the 0.8:1 strategy with hard stops and targets. Thanks for the suggestion.
just curious for someone like you new to this method but with couple of years trading experience.
would you be able to provide for these 30 trades:
1. the win loss ratio
2. what is the number of profit loss winning losing weeks (not days)
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #546
  • Edited 4:29pm Jun 2, 2019 2:30pm | Edited 4:29pm
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} just curious for someone like you new to this method but with couple of years trading experience. would you be able to provide for these 30 trades: 1. the win loss ratio 2. what is the number of profit loss winning losing weeks (not days)
Okay.
Because I've seen so many variations of how to calculate "Win/Loss Ratio" I've just given you my raw data.
All of these trades are posted in this thread.
(Bear in mind that many of these trades I wouldn't take again because I was (and still am) just learning the system.)

Re: 80% take-profit vs. 1:1 take-profit
I had 6.7 net wins this trading cycle using a 1:1 hard take-profit (except for Trade #30 which was a 3:1).
If I had taken my profit at 80% instead, my numbers would be different. I had six breakeven trades that had reached 80%. So my total net wins would be 12.7. Plus a full loss that had reached 80% (Trade #28) bumps that number up to 14.7. Now I have to subtract two of the wins from my 3:1 win (Trade #30) and the number is now 12.7. So 80% of that is 10.16 wins as opposed to the 6.7 wins that I did make.

Going forward, I'm not sure how to implement an 0.8:1 trading strategy. I can't just calculate the number of pips that is 80% of my S/L and use that as a hard target because price has to move different amounts to cover that distance on long vs. short trades. I guess I could just calculate 80% of my risk as a dollar amount and manually close out my trade when that number is hit. (Funny how none of this is a problem calculating 1:1 trades...) Any suggestions?
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  • #547
  • Jun 2, 2019 3:00pm Jun 2, 2019 3:00pm
Thanks.
I finally got the MACD_OsMA_4ColorH_2LVar__mtf to work.
I only got a blank indicator with all of the .mq4 files (including yours) even though there were no compiler errors.
However, your ex4 worked like a charm right out of the box.
Thank you for your ongoing support!
  • #548
  • Edited Jun 3, 2019 12:18am Jun 2, 2019 10:30pm | Edited Jun 3, 2019 12:18am
Quoting pipShine
{quote} Going forward, I'm not sure how to implement an 0.8:1 trading strategy. I can't just calculate the number of pips that is 80% of my S/L and use that as a hard target because price has to move different amounts to cover that distance on long vs. short trades. I guess I could just calculate 80% of my risk as a dollar amount and manually close out my trade when that number is hit. (Funny how none of this is a problem calculating 1:1 trades...) Any suggestions? {image}
i guess it depends on what one actually wants.
personally i would just concentrate on how i can improve my win loss rate first. the money part will take care of itself later.
since forex is not an exact science, so do not sweat the small stuff, one can round down (or up) the 80%.
say 12 pips sl would be 9.6 pips tp, just take 9 pips.
another simple way to estimate is 0.33% or put in your own percentage (6-9 pips) of $10K capital = $33 tp.

your results look good for someone totally new using this method (being aware that it's only posted trades)
simple maths.
win/loss (break even not included) about 60-65% win rate.
total 6 weeks. 4 winning weeks 2 losing weeks.

maybe you would like to include eurjpy and gbpjpy to your major pairs.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #549
  • Jun 3, 2019 3:43am Jun 3, 2019 3:43am
a little insight on the 5 entries rule on post #1.
a different perspective whether one realises or not.

when main trend is down, rsi is below 50 line favoring momentum => all 5 rules can be used.
when main trend is down, rsi is above 50 line => 1b, 2b and 3 can be used when at resistance zone.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #550
  • Jun 3, 2019 6:54am Jun 3, 2019 6:54am
price broke down asia low followed by previous day's low.
price retraced to a london high, broke down london open, followed by frankfurt london open range (blue box).
thereafter price all the while in lower kc, touching the median line and resistance zone.

3 short trades for 35.8 pips for a 1.56% day.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #551
  • Edited 8:04am Jun 3, 2019 7:49am | Edited 8:04am
there's a 3brp in m5 usdcad.
forgot to check the pmi news.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #552
  • Jun 3, 2019 8:25am Jun 3, 2019 8:25am
Quoting Inthebox
there's a 3brp in m5 usdcad. forgot to check the pmi news.
I've been watching the UsdCad this morning but it seems to be at a wicked S/R level.
I'm going to wait for it to clear before I even think about going in.
Plus there's a USD red flag coming up in less than an hour - ISM Manufacturing PMI.

I'm trying to proceed cautiously...
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  • #553
  • Jun 3, 2019 8:46am Jun 3, 2019 8:46am
Quoting Inthebox
there's a 3brp in m5 usdcad. forgot to check the pmi news.
fortunately .....
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #554
  • Jun 3, 2019 8:49am Jun 3, 2019 8:49am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} fortunately ..... {image}
Nicely done!
As I've mentioned before, you are much braver than I am!
  • #555
  • Jun 3, 2019 8:52am Jun 3, 2019 8:52am
Quoting pipShine
{quote} Nicely done! As I've mentioned before, you are much braver than I am!
i was braver just because i have the previous profit earlier today to play with.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #556
  • Jun 3, 2019 9:07am Jun 3, 2019 9:07am
on a side note, there may be a trend reversal for nzdusd.
it completed a 4 downward wave, broke and tested the trend line
and if it can close above last week's high at the end of day, i may buy for long term.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #557
  • Jun 3, 2019 9:44am Jun 3, 2019 9:44am
I took no trades today.
The Market looked kind of tired and sluggish to me.
So I saved my capital for another day.
  • #558
  • Jun 4, 2019 7:15am Jun 4, 2019 7:15am
i would say mostly contained within the frankfurt london high low range, except the exotic.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #559
  • Jun 4, 2019 9:23am Jun 4, 2019 9:23am
A 2(b) entry in the direction of the main trend.
Price broke above the fractal S/R and above the Keltner Channel.
As a bonus, the (H1)MACD printed green.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #560
  • Jun 4, 2019 9:43am Jun 4, 2019 9:43am
Didn't quite have the juice to go the distance.
I think I got to the party a bit late - should have taken the 3br one candle earlier.
Oh well, I made one pip...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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