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The Swamp

  • #35,801
  • May 30, 2019 3:01am May 30, 2019 3:01am
Quoting wasntme
{quote} boulder..do u have AJ's numbers?
76.23 is day.. bearish close below.. atm, 75.95 is bears pulling. pa is between these. close day below 75.95 and bears win. bulls have to take and close day 76.23+.. Bulls are swimming upstream. 65 pips in a week.. with disappointment most days.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #35,802
  • May 30, 2019 3:05am May 30, 2019 3:05am
Quoting Boulder
FYI {image}
Due to the current market situation i would think that it is most likely that the bulk of the EURUSD options are out of the money calls. 40 pips is also relarively far away. Of course Prelim GDP can prove me wrong.
  • #35,803
  • May 30, 2019 3:23am May 30, 2019 3:23am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I have shorts pending 1184 area.. Some smaller closes below 1125 may get it moving. 1125 ish is a weaker support on my week.. I hope the month would close below 1145.9 and best -1141 week -1125 better a lot of air till 1.0952 in this current week.
this is a month level at 1141, the week level at 1125. 1141 had a little test since yesterday's lower close. After Friday close, these numbers will change.

Yesterday has a new lower close, bumping its head on 1141, a month number. then its feet on 1125 a week number. Bulls may protect tomorrow's close and 1145.9 month's uptrend. Bears still have the swap over 2% higher to help drop. Both can't win.

Even if bulls win this month, the drip/drip effect of 2.5% swap will weigh on bulls next month. 1145.9 would still remain a fight the following month.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #35,804
  • May 30, 2019 3:38am May 30, 2019 3:38am
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} Someone else should kindly verify this. Yesterday's H1 low doesn't appear on the 1 - minute chart. True or false?
Wrong! I just re - checked.
  • #35,805
  • May 30, 2019 3:51am May 30, 2019 3:51am
This is how I see it...

this latest range has a bottom around 1.1111 and a top around 1.1264....here at 1.1125 we are near the bottom of that range....the last 3 days bear also ended as a falling wedge after 4 pushes down and now at a double bottom soon after a bear flag break (just now) making a possible fail final flag.....could this be a HL after the low of 1.1107 to go back at least in the middle of that range? I do not know for sure but it was worth taking a risk...
trading is simple but is simple is not easy.
  • #35,806
  • May 30, 2019 4:00am May 30, 2019 4:00am
Quoting ZenNy
This is how I see it... this latest range has a bottom around 1.1111 and a top around 1.1264....here at 1.1125 we are near the bottom of that range....the last 3 days bear also ended as a falling wedge after 4 pushes down and now at a double bottom soon after a bear flag break (just now) making a possible fail final flag.....could this be a HL after the low of 1.1107 to go back at least in the middle of that range? I do not know for sure but it was worth taking a risk...
Nice analysis!
  • #35,807
  • May 30, 2019 4:05am May 30, 2019 4:05am
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} Nice analysis!

thank you.....a picture a thousand words...30m chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pip.png Size: 47 KB
trading is simple but is simple is not easy.
  • #35,808
  • May 30, 2019 4:09am May 30, 2019 4:09am
Quoting ZenNy
This is how I see it... this latest range has a bottom around 1.1111 and a top around 1.1264....here at 1.1125 we are near the bottom of that range....the last 3 days bear also ended as a falling wedge after 4 pushes down and now at a double bottom soon after a bear flag break (just now) making a possible fail final flag.....could this be a HL after the low of 1.1107 to go back at least in the middle of that range? I do not know for sure but it was worth taking a risk...
its possible.. but dont forget the month is ending. week still has 1081/1256 as a average. month 1.0910/1459. I dont see it moving so much atm. But it still has time.

Day 1093/1172
just 18 hours ago was a lower close, followed by a rejected test of 1141, a month number. 6h LC closes in a few minutes.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #35,809
  • May 30, 2019 4:50am May 30, 2019 4:50am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} its possible.. but dont forget the month is ending. week still has 1081/1256 as a average. month 1.0910/1459. I dont see it moving so much atm. But it still has time. Day 1093/1172 just 18 hours ago was a lower close, followed by a rejected test of 1141, a month number. 6h LC closes in a few minutes.
So true......

another perception in favour of the bulls.......the last 7 weekly bars: 2 bear bars and 2 bull bars, one bear bar and one bull bar, one bear bar (this one) and one bull bar? (next week)
trading is simple but is simple is not easy.
  • #35,810
  • May 30, 2019 4:52am May 30, 2019 4:52am
scalp a short here 1140...
  • #35,811
  • May 30, 2019 4:55am May 30, 2019 4:55am
testing H1 downtrend stop now at 1142.. to see it will hold...5 mins to go...
  • #35,812
  • May 30, 2019 4:57am May 30, 2019 4:57am
Quoting Boulder
scalp a short here 1140...
Your EA sells until the move is oversold. It then switches to BUY.

It bought yesterday around 1.1138 (if I remember).

Why are you "trying" a sell?

I expect buyers to be in charge until 1.1169 or higher.
  • #35,813
  • May 30, 2019 5:00am May 30, 2019 5:00am
FYI, don't know about this bank, we can track their calls from now on...
Attached Image
  • #35,814
  • May 30, 2019 5:01am May 30, 2019 5:01am
Quoting Boulder
testing H1 downtrend stop now at 1142.. to see it will hold...5 mins to go...
held.. its also at month 1141.. It may get harder,
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #35,815
  • May 30, 2019 5:04am May 30, 2019 5:04am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} held..
Yes, new hour to go..
there are 70% chance, it might not hold on next try...in case not hold, we are going to range trade..
  • #35,816
  • May 30, 2019 5:05am May 30, 2019 5:05am
Quoting Boulder
FYI, don't know about this bank, we can track their calls from now on... {image}
How do you get all these information?
  • #35,817
  • May 30, 2019 5:06am May 30, 2019 5:06am
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} Your EA sells until the move is oversold. It then switches to BUY. It bought yesterday around 1.1138 (if I remember). Why are you "trying" a sell? I expect buyers to be in charge until 1.1169 or higher.
I can hedge trade..if bulls can reverse H1 downtrend, I will join your bulls as well...
  • #35,818
  • May 30, 2019 5:06am May 30, 2019 5:06am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Yes, new hour to go.. there are 70% chance, it might not hold on next try...in case not hold, we are going to range trade..
Check your SHI channel on H4.
  • #35,819
  • May 30, 2019 5:06am May 30, 2019 5:06am
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} How do you get all these information?
Ransquawk
  • #35,820
  • May 30, 2019 5:09am May 30, 2019 5:09am
Quoting SirMcPip
{quote} Due to the current market situation i would think that it is most likely that the bulk of the EURUSD options are out of the money calls. 40 pips is also relarively far away. Of course Prelim GDP can prove me wrong.
yeah,, probably they are all going to be worthless...but just in case a spike , we know where the resistance is
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