Range & Courage | Daily planning thread

Gold longs are doing well, supported by weak USD. Current quote around $640, and still room to move north.

Will move the stop higher above the $620 mark by the NY close.

Today's market was a perfect example to encourage traders to be calm. Any trader that made fast and unconsistent decisions would have lost today. The price action went high to 1.2770s, than pulled down the rate below the 1.2700 mark. The close is around the levels where the pair started the day.

USD Index is up from 86.64 to 86.73, in a undirectional day. Following yesterday's 400+ profit, today saw a bit consolidation, giving back 94 pips. Tomorrow could push the total pips count above the 2500 mark. The week should end above the weekly target of 2250 pips.


Trade results for July 27:

_____ Pair _____ Result ______
___ EUR/USD ___ -26 ______
___ USD/JPY ___ 6 ______
___ GBP/USD ___ -8 ______
___ USD/CHF ___ -5 ______
___ USD/CAD ___ -61 _______

TOTAL _________ -94

TOTAL Pips Count in 29 trading days _____ 2292

Outlook for today:

Long EUR/USD, GBP/USD
Short USD/JPY, USD/CHF and USD/CAD.

USD could weaken during the day

Trade results for July 28:

_____ Pair _____ Result ______
___ EUR/USD ___ -57 ______
___ USD/JPY ___ -46 ______
___ GBP/USD ___ -62 ______
___ USD/CHF ___ -50 ______
___ USD/CAD ___ 11 _______

TOTAL _________ -204

TOTAL Pips Count in 30 trading days _____ 2088

Closed the week above the 2000 mark. http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/...es/biggrin.gif

Weekly profit: 125

Booked 2088 in 30 trading days (Thats 6 weeks).

Average pips per day: 69.6

Weekly target would be to close above 2250 pips.

Hi,

Sorry, I rear only last post I dont understand. you made real 2.000 pips in july ?

How much a pip ? 1,10, 50$ ?

Thanks

Thanks for this thread. I am having the best, most consistent successs trading within key support and resistance levels on a couple currencies I am getting familiar with.

Please keep posting!

Also curious if going "public" had any psychological effect on your trades.

Thanks again,
Gtrader444

Trade results for July 31:

_____ Pair _____ Result ______
___ EUR/USD ___ -5 ______
___ USD/JPY ___ -37 ______
___ GBP/USD ___ 3 ______
___ USD/CHF ___ -2 ______
___ USD/CAD ___ -26 _______

TOTAL _________ -67


Total pips this week: -67

last 3 trading days provided no unidirectional moves; thursday and friday brought spikes and mostly range trading. Hence personally I expect that tomorrow and/or wednesday should provide unidirectional, 100+ pips movement.

Tomorrow should provide massive volatility in nearly all markets. I expect the precious metal market to have a big day too.

Even FOMC pauses, the markets could react USD positive, so watch out.

Below is the setup:

EUR/USD:

Sell @ 1.2814 Stop @ 1.2855
Sell @ 1.2788 Stop @ 1.2806

Buy @ 1.2879 Stop @ 1.2830
Buy @ 1.2891 Stop @ 1.2876


USD/JPY:

Sell @ 114.74 Stop @ 115.19
Sell @ 114.40 Stop @ 114.78

Buy @ 115.34 Stop @ 114.99
Buy @ 115.39 Stop @ 115.15


GBP/USD:

Sell @ 1.9026 Stop @ 1.9070
Sell @ 1.9030 Stop @ 1.9092

Buy @ 1.9109 Stop @ 1.9065
Buy @ 1.9134 Stop @ 1.9104


USD/CHF:

Sell @ 1.2220 Stop @ 1.2276
Sell @ 1.2219 Stop @ 1.2250

Buy @ 1.2292 Stop @ 1.2245
Buy @ 1.2317 Stop @ 1.2287


USD/CAD:

Sell @ 1.1215 Stop @ 1.1187
Sell @ 1.1226 Stop @ 1.1199

Buy @ 1.1173 Stop @ 1.1204
Buy @ 1.1166 Stop @ 1.1192


Wish everyone a profitable day. FOMC should give an insight to next 6 months.

spikes after the FOMC resulted in -425 pips for the day. Lets see if the weekly close would be positive or not.

Heavy USD buying.

Went Short EUR/USD, GBP/USD
Long USD/JPY, USD/CHF

Pending USD/CAD

As noted since last Friday, EU currencies built base for the last 5 trading days, and simply blasted yesterday, taking most of the thin shorts off the market http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/...es/biggrin.gif The ones who got out of shorts stuck to their profits, and the ones who were too desperate, well, gave all their gains back.

NOW, what happens next?

Here it goes:

As noted before, EUR/USD closed well above the 1.2580 figure. 1-2 trading days will be sideways action, between 1.2580-1.2650, building necessary base for further upside action. A close above 1.2650 figure would take the pair above 1.2700 mark. The situation is likewise for GBP/USD, and the pair should accelerate to 1.8900 soon; however, NOT tomorrow. So don't expect another 100+ movement tomorrow. Market HAS to build base, swing, and find new buyers/sellers.

For Oct 20, Friday

AUD/USD has downside potential
EUR/JPY has upside potential
EUR/CAD has downside potential

Ps. I am curious, whether people are interested in following commentaries on a distinct site. Do you guys find these commentaries helpful? Let me know

One more thing;

Anyone who thinks this upward move was a correction, thinks these levels would be the top, and looking to short now, think again! Do not short yet!

While agreed that EUR/USD should end the year below the 1.2500 figure, EUR/USD and GBP/USD levels are NOT the top yet! Expect top formation around 1.2700 and 1.8900 respectively. USD should make one last push starting next week, and should bring the pairs below 1.2500 mark and 1.8500 mark respectively. USD will be overevaluated between November-December period, which should coinside with a DOW top, and start to slide down thereafter.

By the year end: EUR/USD -> 1.2000 - 1.2500 looks logical
By March - August'07 -> 1.3000 - 1.3500 looks logical

EU currencies are fading away, as EU buying, sparkled early next week by the lead of UK, is slowing down.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CHF advanced late next week, but all failed to close above important reversal levels on Friday. USD should gain the territory back. EUR/USD needs to close above 1.2650, GBP/USD above 1.8880, and USD/CHF below 1.2550. Each rejection of these levels will add to USD positive movement, and EUR/USD could drop below the 1.2500 mark. Range for the EUR/USD is 1.2580-1.2650; a drop below 1.2580 would drive the pair to 1.2500 and below, noting that extra sellers arriving around 1.2600-1.2650.

For Monday, Oct 23:
EUR/USD has downside potential
USD/CHF has upside potential
AUD/USD has downside potential
USD/JPY has upside potential

EUR/USD may spend 1-2 days between 1.2480-1.2580, looking for necessary newcomers to bring the pair below 1.2500. The day for this event looks scheduled for Wednesday. Fading volume for tomorrow will have difficulty taking the pair below 1.2500.

For Tuesday, Oct 24th:

USD/JPY has upside potential
NZD/USD has downside potential
EUR/GBP has upside potential

as always, 2 cents

USD index is up for the day, though EUR/USD increased. Interesting to note.

Today is the last update. Don't know how many people are following or reading, or if its worth it or not.

Most people are waiting rate cuts soon, but it looks like even though the economic slow down, FOMC can't cut rates now, if can't increase either. At least until Jan/Feb. Range bound trading looks like the situation until Jan, as noted earlier. EU currencies got support for the 2nd time. Tomorrow's news could light USD selling, with another expectation of USD rate cuts, but eventually the probable selloff of USD should be rebought, and EUR/USD should close below 1.2500, especially around Nov-Dec. period. Traders who got out of shorts today stuck to their profits once more. If the 1.2480-1.25 level is not overcome, expect a short term rise in EUR/USD to probable 1.2700 levels once again.

For Wednesday, Oct 25th
GBP/USD has upside potential
USD/CAD has downside potential
NZD/USD has upside potential
AUD/CAD has downside potential
CAD/JPY has upside potential

Regards, and good luck to everyone else. Do NOT listen to story tellers. Markets do NOT write stories, and will tear any story apart within a blink of an eye. Techs tell you what has happened, what is happening now, and what are the "chances" of what could happen in the future. NOT what will happen. I believe its best to see what the market is doing, telling you, and combine them with your fundamentals, and then decide. Fundamentals are the ones that are telling you what "WILL" happen in the future. They CAN'T tell you WHEN! Use both to minimize your exposure to the market, until that "WHEN" arrives.

Cheers,

Have a big grin when you face the market. If it sees your suffering, will not tolerate.