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morph's price action musings

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Jun 16, 2019 11:57am May 24, 2019 1:45am | Edited Jun 16, 2019 11:57am
Time to get down to get back in the rhythm and focus......

Simple, clean price action style. Much of it J16 based. (Thanks James, Mike, Jarroo and Patrick). Looking for key levels and the "story" of what price is doing before using clear signals that stand out. (I wish it always was like that but, as a human being I am only too aware of the psychological things that I need to work on in order to reduce any negative impact).

Mainly daily and H4 charts. Sometimes allow smaller timescales when trading breakouts.

Well....here goes:
  • #2
  • Edited 10:35am May 24, 2019 1:53am | Edited 10:35am
EURJPY H4

In a clear downtrend but with a bit of ranging for the last couple of weeks. Clear evidence of price rejecting the lower daily support in that time. Good shape pinbar but size is mediocre. Looking left we are potentially trading into a bit of a mess so this will need moving to BE reasonably quickly. If it can get past this we should be testing the upper parts of the range.

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OUTCOME
After hitting FTA price was stuck in smaller range but failed to break through the 20 ema resistance. As it was a Friday afternoon better to protect risk so closed at BE.
Profit never rose above 0.5R. This Daily support line is a good one to watch for potential support or breakdown.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3
  • May 24, 2019 1:58am May 24, 2019 1:58am
EURUSD D

Price in descent overall with a clear swing pattern of HH and HL. Double bottom on the daily support at 1.1131. Good size BUOB here with initial target of the recent swing high at around 1.1241.

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  • #4
  • Edited 7:45am May 24, 2019 7:18am | Edited 7:45am
GBPNZD

Watching......
Daily trendline broken yesterday and closed below. Also running through is is clear daily S/R that has closed below. Price has gone back up and tested both these lines. Now looking for some price action to go short.

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H4 continuation BEOB forming on breakout:

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May have missed the boat on this one. There was a good opportunity on the 30 min chart with a clear BEOB testing the daily trendline to go short. Just have to see how it develops now but there is LOADS of space below to go.

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  • #5
  • May 27, 2019 5:17am May 27, 2019 5:17am
GBPNZD H4

Entered short off the H4 BEOB this morning. Price had retraced well enough which allowed for a better value entry.

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  • #6
  • May 28, 2019 4:03pm May 28, 2019 4:03pm
Quoting morph
EURUSD D Price in descent overall with a clear swing pattern of HH and HL. Double bottom on the daily support at 1.1131. Good size BUOB here with initial target of the recent swing high at around 1.1241. {image}

OUTCOME As this was a counter trend trade price me the downward resistance. BUOB did not provide enough momentum to get through. Was looking for the price to remain above Friday's bar if I was to remain in this trade. Cut losses as it was below so this is better discipline. -0.29R
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7
  • May 28, 2019 4:06pm May 28, 2019 4:06pm
EURJPY

Daily has closed below daily support. Looking for PA around this level on a retrace. Lots of space below for this to fall into.

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  • #8
  • May 30, 2019 7:40am May 30, 2019 7:40am
AUDCAD

Daily chart in clear downward trend and bounced off the Monthly support. It has now retraced to the W/D resistance with confluence at the 38 fib. Ascending wedge seen much clearer on the H4 chart

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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Took an entry short off a retrace to the Daily resistance line and a 6H BEOB now the wedge is broken.
  • #9
  • Jun 3, 2019 1:11am Jun 3, 2019 1:11am
Quoting morph
AUDCAD Daily chart in clear downward trend and bounced off the Monthly support. It has now retraced to the W/D resistance with confluence at the 38 fib. Ascending wedge seen much clearer on the H4 chart {image} {image} Took an entry short off a retrace to the Daily resistance line and a 6H BEOB now the wedge is broken.
Result = -1R
Good location but also the weekly bar has closed above the weekly resistance.

Attached Image
  • #10
  • Jun 3, 2019 1:13am Jun 3, 2019 1:13am
Quoting morph
GBPNZD H4 Entered short off the H4 BEOB this morning. Price had retraced well enough which allowed for a better value entry. {image}

Result = +1.9R

Good run with the trend. Time to take profits. There is still loads of room to the downside but risk of a retrace from here.

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  • #11
  • Jun 3, 2019 5:05am Jun 3, 2019 5:05am
AUDJPY

Price broke and closed below the weekly and daily support.

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Now price is retracing back up to this level which should provide some resistance. (also Sunday gap below) - seen better on H4 chart

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Looking to enter this 2 day BEOB on a retrace
  • #12
  • Jun 4, 2019 4:08am Jun 4, 2019 4:08am
EURUSD

Looking at this good sized PB with a good close. Coming off the daily resistance that has been tested three times. This time the tail suggests that the stop hunting has mopped up loose orders from earlier. Daily trend still significantly in a downwards direction.

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The downside to this is that price has shot up with strong momentum so it would have to overcome this. My guess is that price may consolidate here before pushing down again so perhaps a retrace entry is more appropriate here.
  • #13
  • Jun 12, 2019 1:00pm Jun 12, 2019 1:00pm
NZDJPY

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Daily BEOB in downtrend with space down to weekly support.
  • #14
  • Jun 12, 2019 1:02pm Jun 12, 2019 1:02pm
Quoting morph
NZDJPY {image} Daily BEOB in downtrend with space down to weekly support.
Price has broken and trade entered. Now at FTA so observing how it progresses here.

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  • #15
  • Jun 16, 2019 12:00pm Jun 16, 2019 12:00pm
NZDJPY outcome:

Price kept going in the right direction. Main decision making was in terms of when to close. As it was a Friday I aimed for the low. There was always a good probability it could break through but at +1R it was a good place to take some money.

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  • #16
  • Jun 16, 2019 12:10pm Jun 16, 2019 12:10pm
2 other trades last week I did not get the chance to post:

EURUSD

Daily still in clear downtrend with a swing high at daily resistance. BEOB. Took a retrace entry short at the daily resistance.

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Again closed out late on Friday as price hit the middle of the "box" and some areas of daily support. result: +1.55R

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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GBPUSD

Also took a short off the daily. In downtrend at minor swing high. Inside bar followed by a bit of a fakey.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Closed out trade late on Friday as price approached the swing low. result: +0.65R

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All in all a pretty decent week with plans followed well and with decent setups. +6.4% on the week overall from three trades.
  • #17
  • Edited 12:18pm Jun 17, 2019 12:52am | Edited 12:18pm
EURAUD

Daily double PB at clear weekly resistance. Against trend so will look to move SL in tighter. Smaller risk size

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Price never broke below the PB so no trade
  • #18
  • Edited 12:19pm Jun 17, 2019 1:00am | Edited 12:19pm
AUDCAD

Price moved to previous lows and now has a decent sized BEOB/PB closing at the monthly s/r line.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Price has retraced most of the signal bar. Still a great area so will look to see if there is further PA.
  • #19
  • Jun 18, 2019 4:05am Jun 18, 2019 4:05am
EURAUD

Good sized beob counter trend but at previous swing highs. Is price fighting to get back below the weekly resistance?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #20
  • Edited 4:02pm Jun 18, 2019 9:23am | Edited 4:02pm
Quoting morph
EURAUD Good sized beob counter trend but at previous swing highs. Is price fighting to get back below the weekly resistance? {image}

Update: Price has broken downwards and hit the FTA (which is also the 38 fib). 3/4 risk removed . We may get a bounce here back up to the resistance or a bit of consolidation?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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End of day update: Strong finish with a good daily BEOB and divergence. Next a bit of a retrace or a continuation down to about 1.61 at the minor swing low?

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