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Money management: Capital needed per 0.07 USD per microlot 0 replies

The Volume Detective 411 replies

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(binned per thread starter’s request) MM (Money Maker) Detective

  • #2,001
  • May 26, 2019 11:58pm May 26, 2019 11:58pm
Quoting moodybot
{quote} I pop in every once in a while Steve. The thread has a nice feel about it, just about the right amount of ar5e licking and rebellion. In fact, as of late, Forex Factory has fallen asleep....it's about time George stirred up the troops. I might fire off a salvo at him, see if he I can shift him from his trading sofa.......who else trades feet up on a recliner ....
Quote
...who else trades feet up on a recliner...




I thought he traded on a camel...
  • #2,002
  • May 27, 2019 12:08am May 27, 2019 12:08am
Quoting robots4me
{quote} {quote} I thought he traded on a camel...
Steve, when did I mention the sofa being in the house...!!!
  • #2,003
  • May 27, 2019 12:12am May 27, 2019 12:12am
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Steve, when did I mention the sofa being in the house...!!!


Too funny -- thanks...
  • #2,004
  • May 27, 2019 12:20am May 27, 2019 12:20am
Here's a strategy I found in my archive ...............

https://www.dukascopy.com/fxcomm/fx-article-contest/?Trading-The-London-Session-With=&action=read&id=1253&language=en
  • #2,005
  • May 27, 2019 12:40am May 27, 2019 12:40am
Quoting handy148
Here's a strategy I found in my archive ............... https://www.dukascopy.com/fxcomm/fx-article-contest/?Trading-The-London-Session-With=&action=read&id=1253&language=en
@handy148 -- okay, might be interesting. Now that you have some nice, graphical indicators to work with then how about a screen shot that highlights the strategy along with a brief explanation. Otherwise you force people to follow the link and figure out the rules themselves -- and no one (including me) is going to do that. I'm just suggesting you make it easy for everyone -- you know, pretend you were explaining it to your grandmother. That way everyone would benefit and be grateful you did them a favor
  • #2,006
  • May 27, 2019 1:00am May 27, 2019 1:00am
I've never traded it and it's not the way I trade anyway, but Frankfurt and London opens seem to have come to the fore in recent posts so I thought I would post it.
  • #2,007
  • May 27, 2019 1:14am May 27, 2019 1:14am
Quoting handy148
I've never traded it and it's not the way I trade anyway, but Frankfurt and London opens seem to have come to the fore in recent posts so I thought I would post it.
@handy148 -- I know you've never traded it. Neither has anyone else. But if you find something that is potentially interesting don't just post a link and tell everyone to go figure it out themselves because, as you know, know one will. So, why post it in the first place?

Or are you hoping someone else will do the screen shot and explanation so that you don't have to. That's okay -- just be upfront about it. I mean, why not just say
"Here's a link. I'm too lazy and ungrateful to figure it out myself. Would someone please do it for me and post the results. Thanks".
To me that makes more sense.

When you consider how much work I and some others have put in that you benefit from, is it really asking so much for a screen shot and a brief explanation? Since you obviously benefit from this thread, then put a little bit back in.

Quote
but Frankfurt and London opens seem to have come to the fore in recent posts so I thought I would post it.
A lot of things come up -- but if everyone did what you just did then the thread would only contain links. Why not a quality post? You know, something you can show your grandkids how you helped others learn something new?
  • #2,008
  • May 27, 2019 11:39am May 27, 2019 11:39am
Hello

For any still contemplating George's Top and Bottom levels and how they might feature in his method I ( once again) raise Areas of "Fair Value."

So... go to the Weekly chart and find the big picture Value Area as contained inside 3 horizontal lines ( in the style of the graphic below.) Then....go down to the daily chart - do the same, H4 and H1 the same and then M15.

Locate the M15 Herd Zone and look at where price goes to in terms of the lines you now have from the value areas. Yes these are often Tops and Bottoms BUT NOT ALWAYS - sometimes they go through price.

Robots4me - just wanted to share this for anyone who is interested - I believe these lines have a magnetic effect on price. Please take it in the spirit it is offered - cheers.
Attached Image
  • #2,009
  • Edited 3:02pm May 27, 2019 2:51pm | Edited 3:02pm
Quoting TopCover
Hello For any still contemplating George's Top and Bottom levels and how they might feature in his method I ( once again) raise Areas of "Fair Value." So... go to the Weekly chart and find the big picture Value Area as contained inside 3 horizontal lines ( in the style of the graphic below.) Then....go down to the daily chart - do the same, H4 and H1 the same and then M15. Locate the M15 Herd Zone and look at where price goes to in terms of the lines you now have from the value areas. Yes these are often Tops and Bottoms BUT NOT ALWAYS - sometimes...
@TopCover -- thanks.

@VEEFX also used the word "magnet" to describe how price tends to be attracted to certain levels.

@George, @Rick and others refer to ADR.

You use the term "fair value" area.

Do you think these are related?

Right now I'm focusing on Frankfurt and London opens as times to Enter a trade, ADR to help decide which Direction, and target levels to estimate the Exit.
  • #2,010
  • May 27, 2019 4:01pm May 27, 2019 4:01pm
Quoting robots4me
{quote} @TopCover -- thanks. @VEEFX also used the word "magnet" to describe how price tends to be attracted to certain levels. @George, @Rick and others refer to ADR. You use the term "fair value" area. Do you think these are related? Right now I'm focusing on Frankfurt and London opens as times to Enter a trade, ADR to help decide which Direction, and target levels to estimate the Exit.
The two charts show:

1. Fairvalue area on H4 ( this is where price has rotated back and forth happily with "buyers and sellers" ( AKA the MM probably) allowing price to rest at a "fair value." The excess areas are where price is pushed outwards by the big players (MM) to meet some target probably on a much higher TF. Traders using this approach sell from the peak of the upper reaching spikes/excess price down towards the control price (middle line) - I've done it often and successfully.
2. The first chart also shows yesterday and today GBPJPY as set out by George ( and the segment of his chart) where he advised to look at the Frankfurt London opens - however this was also in a smaller fractal Fair Value area as you can see, through which the H4 lower value line ran (and M15 control price)
2. The second chart is zoomed in. You can see that TODAY price went down to the lower H4 value line (where it REVERSED) and UP to the H4 Upper value line where it also REVERSED.

So...again and fractally, these value areas operate in multi-timeframes and contain lower value areas. However each of the three lines each time appears to be extremely powerful and that magnetised power continues on into the future. As I said earlier the lines often pass through price hence alive and dead lines not being particularly relevant any more if my theory has any substance.

-- ADR makes sense because if we say are predicting which of the "value lines" is the target, it most likely won't be outside of the ADR

- In terms of EXIT in George's method - he uses the basket approach for a modest number of pips, the number of which he never (I think) really elaborated upon.

Now as we have said before - what if this is a variant or circuitous route towards George's approach? He might not recognise or acknowledge any of this but it could be another version of whatever it is he is driving at. In any case the study of Fair Value and Price Action Breakdown is a hugely interesting one.....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: Fairvalue M15.png Size: 47 KB
  • #2,011
  • May 27, 2019 4:04pm May 27, 2019 4:04pm
Quoting robots4me
{quote} @TopCover -- thanks. @VEEFX also used the word "magnet" to describe how price tends to be attracted to certain levels. @George, @Rick and others refer to ADR. You use the term "fair value" area. Do you think these are related? Right now I'm focusing on Frankfurt and London opens as times to Enter a trade, ADR to help decide which Direction, and target levels to estimate the Exit.
Hi Steve

There is a greater attraction power that controls the price which just like @VEEFX saids acts just like a "magnet". Inside these zones, price is trapped and controlled by the MM and the tops and bottoms used in conjunction with the "magnet" increases your win rate to a very high level. Here the ADR is irrelevant.
When this zone is smashed by a INTENT candle, its back to normal tops and bottom theory.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #2,012
  • May 27, 2019 4:09pm May 27, 2019 4:09pm
Continuing from the previous post -- another thought occurred to me. I don't claim it's correct -- it's just a thought.

@George and his colleagues keep beating the drum that indicators are useless (with the exception of ADR which, according to some is not an indicator -- but, no matter).

In order to trade you need and Entry, Direction and Exit. Most of us use traditional indicators to determine Entry, Direction and Exit. So, how can this possible mesh with "indicators are useless".

In @George's last post he may have provided a strong clue. For example:

1. He emphasized the use of Frankfurt and London opens -- these could serve as our Entry points.
2. He emphasized the use of ADR -- which could be used to determine direction.
3. As for Exits -- I'm still working on that. But I wonder whether this is where target levels come into play.

Does this make sense to anyone? Does it make no sense?
  • #2,013
  • May 27, 2019 4:16pm May 27, 2019 4:16pm
Quoting robots4me
{quote} Right now I'm focusing on Frankfurt and London opens as times to Enter a trade, ADR to help decide which Direction, and target levels to estimate the Exit.
Couple of quick questions:

- Not sure about how entering at London open ( or near it) would sit with George's method? George did talk a lot about price moving down into the London open etc in his thread but the trade needs ultimately to trigger from a target level?
- In terms of ADR do you mean Average Directional Range? (ADR) - do RickM and the others not mean Average Daily Range ( range of price?) - I haven't been following that conversation so I am possibly way off on that observation
  • #2,014
  • May 27, 2019 4:19pm May 27, 2019 4:19pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Steve There is a greater attraction power that controls the price which just like @VEEFX saids acts just like a "magnet". Inside these zones, price is trapped and controlled by the MM and the tops and bottoms used in conjunction with the "magnet" increases your win rate to a very high level. Here the ADR is irrelevant. When this zone is smashed by a INTENT candle, its back to normal tops and bottom theory.
@RickM:
"ADR is irrelevant"

@George:
All a trader needs is on the chart attached ,,,
1 = the ADR showing where the price is from the TOP,, or the BOTTOM at any given time of the day ,,,

Okay -- all is now clear to me -- ADR is both necessary and irrelevant. Got it...

Of course, I'm kidding. We have two, different methodologies at play here. And that's good. The goal is the same -- two different ways to achieve it.
  • #2,015
  • May 27, 2019 4:24pm May 27, 2019 4:24pm
Quoting robots4me
{quote} @RickM: "ADR is irrelevant" @George: All a trader needs is on the chart attached ,,, 1 = the ADR showing where the price is from the TOP,, or the BOTTOM at any given time of the day ,,, Okay -- all is now clear to me -- ADR is both necessary and irrelevant. Got it... Of course, I'm kidding. We have two, different methodologies at play here. And that's good. The goal is the same -- two different ways to achieve it.
George means range of price.... i.e. Average range for GBPJPY is 85 pips presently
  • #2,016
  • May 27, 2019 4:28pm May 27, 2019 4:28pm
Quoting TopCover
{quote} Couple of quick questions: - Not sure about how entering at London open ( or near it) would sit with George's method? George did talk a lot about price moving down into the London open etc in his thread but the trade needs ultimately to trigger from a target level? - In terms of ADR do you mean Average Directional Range? (ADR) - do RickM and the others not mean Average Daily Range ( range of price?) - I haven't been following that conversation so I am possibly way off on that observation
@TopCover -- thanks for your excellent posts. I need a little time to further digest the one with the charts. The charts are great and help to make things more clear.

As to your questions -- please take my responses with a grain of salt:

1. You say a trade needs to ultimately be triggered from a target level. Prior to yesterday I would have answered "Yes". But now, I'm not so sure. For example, perhaps the "signal" or "trigger" rule is something like this:
a. Wait for Frankfurt or London open (provides timing)
b. Check ADR (provides direction)
c. Open BUY or SELL
d. Exit at ?????????

2. ADR -- Average Daily Range
It's a simple calculation. For example, take the most recent 20 days. For each day find its High and Low and calculate the Delta (i.e. difference). Sum the differences and divide by 20 -- something like that.
  • #2,017
  • May 27, 2019 4:38pm May 27, 2019 4:38pm
Quoting TopCover
{quote} George means range of price.... i.e. Average range for GBPJPY is 85 pips presently
Yes -- that is also what I understood him to mean. This average range in price may vary slightly depending on how many days are used for averaging. Using 20 days seems to be the default (i.e. past month). But some people also use weekly or yearly.

My take on ADR is that it doesn't have to be exact -- e.g. 85.4319447. The question you are trying to answer is where does the current price sit within the ADR. If the current price is near the upper ADR boundary you are thinking there is a higher probability the price will move downwards. If the current price is near the lower ADR boundary, then you are thinking there is a higher probability the price will move upwards.

There is no guarantee the ADR is sufficient to determine direction -- it's just another one of the "data points" you'll use as a discretionary trader. Perhaps ADR gets the direction correct 65% of the time. @George and his colleagues apply additional filters to improve on that.

Again -- I'm not sure. Just blowing smoke...
  • #2,018
  • May 27, 2019 5:07pm May 27, 2019 5:07pm
Thanks R4me - yes I understand your thoughts and rationale on ADR etc

Not sure though about your changing views on the need to trade from target levels. I think we have to prioritise things George says "post" (after) his thread. George's central thread I believe is like the Law of the Medes and Persians (which "altereth not....") - I don't think his comment about London Open is likely to change his target level "trigger" philosophy ( with its TMA's, pressure zones and filters etc) - do you not think?

Its a bit like when he expounded recently on the Liquidity Gap with charts showing gaps as low as 0.1 pip etc - that clearly didn't change the fundamental building blocks of his strategy/method.

Just my two cents....
  • #2,019
  • May 27, 2019 5:07pm May 27, 2019 5:07pm
Quoting robots4me
{quote} @RickM: "ADR is irrelevant" @George: All a trader needs is on the chart attached ,,, 1 = the ADR showing where the price is from the TOP,, or the BOTTOM at any given time of the day ,,, Okay -- all is now clear to me -- ADR is both necessary and irrelevant. Got it... Of course, I'm kidding. We have two, different methodologies at play here. And that's good. The goal is the same -- two different ways to achieve it.
Hi Steve

The ADR is controlled by the MM and it moves the price to various parts in a chart and then traps the ADR into a tight zone at areas which can be seen months and years ahead of time.
Only here is the ADR irrelevant.
But we can make a killing on the 1 minute zone here performing very safe 1 minute reversal trades.

I was talking to a team member last night when we were running through this on a pair. Here we were looking at the places we could add level 1 and level 2 trades for a great pip return.

This can all be added into your indicator by the way.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #2,020
  • May 27, 2019 5:36pm May 27, 2019 5:36pm
I forget where I downloaded these 3 images but I hope it might shed some light

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I did a reverse exercise of drawing lines to the left with the most recent price action that formed the peaks and valleys. They seems to me they can be traced to previous price imbalances.
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