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My take on Emotional Discipline

  • #361
  • May 26, 2019 3:52am May 26, 2019 3:52am
How do we deal with drawdown and loosing streaks...


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  • #362
  • May 26, 2019 5:39am May 26, 2019 5:39am
Here is a ym 5min opening range concept:
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  • #363
  • May 26, 2019 10:35am May 26, 2019 10:35am
Quoting Rmg
How do we deal with drawdown and loosing streaks... https://youtu.be/ew1L6SLpHgM
I really liked the winrate to losing streak table as it gives a grim reality of probabilities involved in trading. With that said, we as retail traders really cannot gain much insight (we can learn, educate etc) into how pros deal with drawdowns. They have an army of "support structure" in place plus they EARN a constant stream of "residual income" from fees, books, seminars, websites, newsletters etc. We don't!. Drawdown is ABSOLUTE to our bottom line. It stings like a porcupine up my butt and no amount of "rely on stats and ride the bronco" shit works when you are all alone sitting in your office experiencing a losing streak. Also, performance of 20-40% per annumm is acceptable to such guys with large capital base. Apply that to us retail traders and not many will find this endeavor worthwhile. For me, I am done with going in circles trading under 10K capital and shooting for triple digit growth. If I cannot replace my current income (or just living expenses!) on a $100K account, I am done with trading forever! Time to move out and do something worthwhile with what's left on my life.

So 100K, risking 1% equates to $1000 or max loss of 200ticks per day or max loss of $3000 (600 ticks) is my current acceptable threshold. Certain doable with a decent size but I won't unless I can find a proven positive expectancy strategy with just one trade one contract with no more than 3 consecutive losing days/weeks/months risking no more than 9% of my initial capital (9K max). None of my models thus far have achieved this rigor on NQ during NYSE session. I still have many ideas but I am feeling a bit reaching crossroads to the point of whether I should continue this journey. None of my FX setups are working on NQ. None! And I anticipated coming into futures that they won't. That is why my choice in FX was to trade a comprehensive portfolio of 28 pairs using currency strength. I need more than just PRICE. No idea what that is for NQ. Seems the next logical step is to dive into some multi-trade position mgmt techniques using eMicros or orderflow or portfolio into multi-indices correlations.... All these are considered Advanced so pretty much I have failed in my endeavor of "Keeping it Simple". Failure is a tough pill to swallow so I am going to keep looking for answers until I meet my success criteria :-(
Staying in my lane...
  • #364
  • May 26, 2019 1:52pm May 26, 2019 1:52pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I really liked the winrate to losing streak table as it gives a grim reality of probabilities involved in trading. With that said, we as retail traders really cannot gain much insight (we can learn, educate etc) into how pros deal with drawdowns. They have an army of "support structure" in place plus they EARN a constant stream of "residual income" from fees, books, seminars, websites, newsletters etc. We don't!. Drawdown is ABSOLUTE to our bottom line. It stings like a porcupine up my butt and no amount of "rely on stats and ride the bronco"...
Truue that, we haven't got the risk managers to look after our f-ups.
20% returns per annum sucks, as I haven't got millions to trade. 10-20%return per month is very much possible I believe.
Maximum 3 full stop losses per day, 3 losing days per week, 3 losing weeks on a row all OK as long as ironclad stats of positive expectations proven in the past.
You may want to look at other instruments, Nq is good for scalpers, what's works with Dow 15 minutes IB breakout fails miserable with Nq as it retraced to shake everyone off.
I was trading Nq NYSE open 1 minute chart with 5 Smma PAC, lost 5 k in 3 days, thanks to my monkey brain.
Did well in simulation, jumped live without proper planning as no clue over max drawdown, or expectancy.
I want to test this strategy again with proper set of rules and without discretion inputs. If I am only targeting 40-100 ticks per day, this strategy have the potential to pull it off. Flawless execution coupled with discipline requires to do this as I am far away from it.
I think its possible to automate this strategy with Sierra.

What if I have 100k for trading, I will trade everything that moves on the daily charts with smallest sizes where a catastrophe loss would be 10% of equity. You might have read" Bird watching in lion country" is my favourite method, saved it future endeavour.
"Bilstein" is to be a member here, may be he still is he inspired me a lot to trade daily charts without hard stops.

Grit is what we need now until we find our niche or edge.
Failure is not an option.
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  • #365
  • May 28, 2019 2:02pm May 28, 2019 2:02pm
Testing on Emicro Dow..
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  • #366
  • May 28, 2019 2:38pm May 28, 2019 2:38pm
YM IS ON Free fall or what ,8 consecutive 15 mts red candles
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  • #367
  • May 29, 2019 9:09am May 29, 2019 9:09am
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  • #368
  • May 30, 2019 11:06am May 30, 2019 11:06am
E micro futures sucks, no liquidity around London open.
I think better to stick with cfd platforms.
I plan to run positions overnight, futures not a way Forward for my system.
F***k going back in circles again.
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  • #369
  • May 30, 2019 11:28am May 30, 2019 11:28am
Quoting Rmg
E micro futures sucks, no liquidity around London open. I think better to stick with cfd platforms. I plan to run positions overnight, futures not a way Forward for my system. F***k going back in circles again.
Micros will eventually pickup imo but NOT for non-US population. It will remain a good option only for US traders coming from spot FX. I am not sure if i would want to trade a US stock index during London session. There will always be low liquidity unless you are trying to trade small and catch 100+ ticks in trend.

Sorry bro. I am also going in circles big time in my journey. There is nothing that fucking works on a longer term basis. Very frustrating but atleast we are not spending a dime to markets (self-consolation but a complete waste of time if this journey does not materialize into buying more materialistic shit for ever-increasing wants and needs of my loved ones)
Staying in my lane...
  • #370
  • May 30, 2019 2:24pm May 30, 2019 2:24pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Micros will eventually pickup imo but NOT for non-US population. It will remain a good option only for US traders coming from spot FX. I am not sure if i would want to trade a US stock index during London session. There will always be low liquidity unless you are trying to trade small and catch 100+ ticks in trend. Sorry bro. I am also going in circles big time in my journey. There is nothing that fucking works on a longer term basis. Very frustrating but atleast we are not spending a dime to markets (self-consolation but a complete waste...
HAHAHA>>.
My first and last day at micro futures
Perfect start with max loss .
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  • #371
  • May 30, 2019 2:45pm May 30, 2019 2:45pm
Quoting Rmg
{quote} HAHAHA>>. My first and last day at micro futures Perfect start with max loss . {image}
I am really sorry to read this i know all the work you have done on demos since you blew the 5K account in just a few days....I have my share of blown accounts also so thats nothing we all havent encountered...I hope this account wasnt to big and that you are able to bounce back and set up another live account even its even just a centaccount you get a feeling on how to manage your risk better....Live trading is only ting that make you become a real trader so brush off and get back in sadle...Good luck
Insanityoing same ting over expecting different results..Einstein
  • #372
  • May 30, 2019 3:35pm May 30, 2019 3:35pm
Quoting FXsniper111
{quote} I am really sorry to read this i know all the work you have done on demos since you blew the 5K account in just a few days....I have my share of blown accounts also so thats nothing we all havent encountered...I hope this account wasnt to big and that you are able to bounce back and set up another live account even its even just a centaccount you get a feeling on how to manage your risk better....Live trading is only ting that make you become a real trader so brush off and get back in sadle...Good luck
I am cool man, Just end up on the wrong side of the probability today. I do expect this system to generate such losses. .
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  • #373
  • May 30, 2019 4:03pm May 30, 2019 4:03pm
Quoting Rmg
{quote} HAHAHA>>. My first and last day at micro futures Perfect start with max loss . {image}
better to lose 3 digit than 5 digit bro. Hopefully it will become a good playing ground. Why not stay with NYSE session instead of London? I might join you as well soon as I need to start trading live soon.. too much of market replay is spinning my head from right to left lol
Staying in my lane...
  • #374
  • May 30, 2019 5:03pm May 30, 2019 5:03pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} better to lose 3 digit than 5 digit bro. Hopefully it will become a good playing ground. Why not stay with NYSE session instead of London? I might join you as well soon as I need to start trading live soon.. too much of market replay is spinning my head from right to left lol
Yes bro, Same strategy can be done with NYSE, but bigger stops and different strats need to work on them.
No plan to fund 4 or 5 digit accounts this year. I just need to focus on finding few more strategies, test them to find an edge if I ever will.
10k next year, if all goes well 25 more the year after that's all I can afford in this life. If I fail after all these years, at least I want to fail better aka do the right things still fail. No regrets.
Until then just practise and dream
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  • #375
  • Jun 1, 2019 10:19pm Jun 1, 2019 10:19pm
Quoting Rmg
{quote} Yes bro, Same strategy can be done with NYSE, but bigger stops and different strats need to work on them. No plan to fund 4 or 5 digit accounts this year. I just need to focus on finding few more strategies, test them to find an edge if I ever will. 10k next year, if all goes well 25 more the year after that's all I can afford in this life. If I fail after all these years, at least I want to fail better aka do the right things still fail. No regrets. Until then just practise and dream
Agree. Spare the limited capital and don't listen to anyone but your own findings. The more you listen, the more confusion and distraction it will create. There is really zero need to fund a live account if you have already experienced live trading and now trying out algo trading. Zero need for it. As I say to myself.... press on brother. As I always say to myself, Listen to everyone but do only what YOU chose to do. base your decisions only on verified facts and data. nothing more and nothing less. As long as ideas flow, CHASE THEM. Almost every day, I wake up with trying new things to add to my bucket list. Don't limit your thinking and scope. Great achievements are never happened by listening to strangers on such forums. Learn, adopt, improvise, integrate, evaluate, test and VERIFY.... is my mantra to live by.
Staying in my lane...
  • #376
  • Jun 2, 2019 1:46pm Jun 2, 2019 1:46pm
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  • #377
  • Jun 11, 2019 1:08pm Jun 11, 2019 1:08pm
Endless journey to neverland...
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  • #378
  • Jun 14, 2019 12:39pm Jun 14, 2019 12:39pm
waiting for this to breakout north,, coiling up log time..
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  • #379
  • Jun 16, 2019 2:57pm Jun 16, 2019 2:57pm
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  • #380
  • Jun 16, 2019 6:36pm Jun 16, 2019 6:36pm
Quoting Rmg
{image}{image}
I have seen an interview with a broker where one client who has a degree in engineering continued to lose while his wife with no college education began trading and consistently made money . . . .
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