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Money management: Capital needed per 0.07 USD per microlot 0 replies

The Volume Detective 411 replies

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(binned per thread starter’s request) MM (Money Maker) Detective

  • #1,941
  • May 25, 2019 6:15am May 25, 2019 6:15am
My friend @Nih98 -- please, please forgive me. In my haste I didn't include you as one of the main contributors in my rant two posts ago. My sincere apologies. I use your tools all the time. I value your advice, your charts, your explanations, your humor and dog pictures.
  • #1,942
  • May 25, 2019 6:19am May 25, 2019 6:19am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Steve You asked me about Monthly Close lines. You may or may not want to answer "YES" My theory's pretty radical but its my EXPLANATION in how herd behaviour occurs. More to the point, it will show the exact spot it may occur next. I had a experienced trader from the UK who wanted to write a article about my theory in a UK trading magazine back in 2017. Be careful about saying "YES" I may upset a few traders
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Be careful about saying "YES" I may upset a few traders
@RickM -- Are you kidding? Go for it -- I live to rattle chains. YES, YES, YES...
  • #1,943
  • May 25, 2019 7:45am May 25, 2019 7:45am
Quoting robots4me
{quote} {quote} @RickM -- Are you kidding? Go for it -- I live to rattle chains. YES, YES, YES...
Hi Steve

No, lets do it on Skype first so I can explain my findings on a chart. Words won't do justice for what I can show you.

Please note this is not George's work I will show but rather my own findings on this predictable action which occurs in the exactly same spot as Herd Behaviour occurs. And I am talking within a few pips.

I should not even call this action Herd behaviour as these are Georges words so this will be the last post to use those words. I have a similiar but different theory.
You can be the judge on what I will show you. All I can say is

GBPNZD - Be Ready
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,944
  • May 25, 2019 7:59am May 25, 2019 7:59am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Steve No, lets do it on Skype first so I can explain my findings on a chart. Words won't do justice for what I can show you. Please note this is not George's work I will show but rather my own findings on this predictable action which occurs in the exactly same spot as Herd Behaviour occurs. And I am talking within a few pips. I should not even call this action Herd behaviour as these are Georges words so this will be the last post to use those words. I have a similiar but different theory. You can be the judge on what I will show you....
For a moment there I thought you were going to say it had something to do with the Moon and Werewolves
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #1,945
  • May 25, 2019 8:34am May 25, 2019 8:34am
Quoting Robot Trader
{quote} For a moment there I thought you were going to say it had something to do with the Moon and Werewolves
How about horses - Steve do you allow horse photos.

This was me a couple of weeks ago when I was trading out of New York. I was trying to get a reaction out of NYPD
I am just a wandering trader enjoying the fruits of a few pips out of a laptop on the road to discovery. Next stop is Thun Switzerland in a handful of weeks. I better earn a few more pips because the beer prices is apparently quite steep.
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,946
  • May 25, 2019 9:52am May 25, 2019 9:52am
Quoting robots4me
Look it -- my response to @Pip-Miner was blunt, but don't take it too seriously. As long as people are interested in figuring out how best to trade in the face of the MM's manipulation then I'll keep moving this thread forward. And I know a lot of people are interested -- so, no need to send encouragement. Posts like Pip-Miner's are important to read -- but not for the reason he thinks. We are all greedy SOB's, just that some of us are more self-righteous than others. And that's okay -- this is what makes the world go 'round. Not only is forex a...
Hi Robots4me , seems I have ruffled you up. It’s that time again ...
https://youtu.be/RYwZ_9-cxEo
  • #1,947
  • May 25, 2019 11:16am May 25, 2019 11:16am
Quoting Pip-Miner
{quote} Hi Robots4me , seems I have ruffled you up. It’s that time again ... https://youtu.be/RYwZ_9-cxEo
@Pip-Miner -- yep, that's me on the left. Except I can assure you my farts don't stink -- trust me...

Thanks for the chuckle...
  • #1,948
  • May 25, 2019 11:19am May 25, 2019 11:19am
Quoting RickM
{quote} How about horses - Steve do you allow horse photos. This was me a couple of weeks ago when I was trading out of New York. I was trying to get a reaction out of NYPD I am just a wandering trader enjoying the fruits of a few pips out of a laptop on the road to discovery. Next stop is Thun Switzerland in a handful of weeks. I better earn a few more pips because the beer prices is apparently quite steep. {image}
Hey @RickM -- all I can say is you've got balls taking a picture like that next to a NYPD vehicle...

And, yes, horse photos are allowed -- but only for you (of you ??)
  • #1,950
  • May 25, 2019 12:53pm May 25, 2019 12:53pm
https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...1&d=1551019821
  • #1,951
  • May 25, 2019 7:28pm May 25, 2019 7:28pm
Quoting Pip-Miner
{quote} Hi Rick, I understand your argument. However, trading live is not the same as trading demo due to psychology. You are a seasoned trader but for a newbie it’s a learning process. You still need to feel the emotions of having a drawdown and learn how to cope and not panic. To keep your nerve and think straight. Another example is flying planes or scuba diving. You need a certain amount of ‘real hours’ before getting your license.
You still need to feel the emotions of having a drawdown why ????????????
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #1,953
  • May 25, 2019 8:27pm May 25, 2019 8:27pm
Quoting Aussi
{quote} You still need to feel the emotions of having a drawdown why ????????????
Just like in real-life, whether or not to use a Demo account comes down to trade-offs -- i.e. there are pros and cons. As a trader, weigh the pros and cons for a particular situation and the correct decision should be clear.

@RickM trades portfolio EAs. Until @George I also traded portfolio EAs. Each of my EAs implemented dozens of strategies. I would use Demo accounts to (a) make sure they didn't crash MT4, and (b) refine settings and configurations. These are completely unrelated to the psychology of trading. Also, @RickM has learned through the use of Demo accounts that certain pairs tend toward certain tendencies. Algorithms have no emotions and feel no pain. It would make no sense to waste money on a Real account for stuff like this.

Now that I'm more of a mechanical manual trader and rely on discretionary decisions, I use Demo accounts less often. Instead I'll use a live, Real micro account. No doubt when you rely on discretionary decisions you will trade differently on a Demo account versus a Real account. I've observed people trade a Demo account for months at a time -- it's safe and people use it as a crutch. But once a beginner has gone down that path they become fearful of live trading (almost paralyzed). And then, of course, that fear becomes self-fulfilling.

So -- there is no "one size fits all" answer. It depends on the situation as to whether your methodology lends itself to Demo trading or not.
  • #1,954
  • May 25, 2019 8:56pm May 25, 2019 8:56pm
Quoting robots4me
{quote} Just like in real-life, whether or not to use a Demo account comes down to trade-offs -- i.e. there are pros and cons. As a trader, weigh the pros and cons for a particular situation and the correct decision should be clear. @RickM trades portfolio EAs. Until @George I also traded portfolio EAs. Each of my EAs implemented dozens of strategies. I would use Demo accounts to (a) make sure they didn't crash MT4, and (b) refine settings and configurations. These are completely unrelated to the psychology of trading. Also, @RickM has learned through...
I like your post, but just thinking about your discretionary comment, in manual trading we still need to follow a Strategy with firm rules (which I believe is what you want to achieve with this thread) and if the Strategy works then it's because we stick to the rules and not because we intervene and use our own discretion.

If we start to use our own discretion, then every individual trading the Strategy will have different results, which moving forward (assuming we can come up with a Strategy) will not help us understand if the Strategy and the rules that it is based upon actually show good results.
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #1,955
  • May 25, 2019 9:11pm May 25, 2019 9:11pm
Quoting Robot Trader
{quote} I like your post, but just thinking about your discretionary comment, in manual trading we still need to follow a Strategy with firm rules (which I believe is what you want to achieve with this thread) and if the Strategy works then it's because we stick to the rules and not because we intervene and use our own discretion. If we start to use our own discretion, then every individual trading the Strategy will have different results, which moving forward (assuming we can come up with a Strategy) will not help us understand if the Strategy...
@Robot Trader -- correct. What I meant by "discretionary" are the rules stored in your head. I picked-up the use of "discretionary" from @George's thread and understood him to mean the rules that your brain uses to make decisions -- which are far superior to what a simple indicator or EA could bring to the table. When @George's eyes scan a chart he looks for a number of landmarks, applies a number of filters and then comes to a decision. I suspect you could give him the same chart many weeks apart and he would trade it exactly the same way. That's what I mean by "discretionary".

With regards to rules -- yes, absolutely -- you gotta have rules.
  • #1,956
  • May 25, 2019 9:50pm May 25, 2019 9:50pm
Maybe for simple brain like me.. in relation with 'manual trading setup'

RULES
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DISCRETIONARY
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Because you are 'The Chef', creativity and flexibility is yours.

NIH
Dog + Smile = Beautiful Day
  • #1,957
  • May 25, 2019 10:09pm May 25, 2019 10:09pm
Quoting Nih98
Maybe for simple brain like me.. in relation with 'manual trading setup' RULES {image} DISCRETIONARY {image}{image}{image} Because you are 'The Chef', creativity and flexibility is yours. NIH
Morning Nih98,

I hope that is "Grain Fed Beef" you served up, Medium Rare.

Have a nice day.
  • #1,958
  • May 26, 2019 1:47am May 26, 2019 1:47am
Quoting robots4me
{quote} Just like in real-life, whether or not to use a Demo account comes down to trade-offs -- i.e. there are pros and cons. As a trader, weigh the pros and cons for a particular situation and the correct decision should be clear. @RickM trades portfolio EAs. Until @George I also traded portfolio EAs. Each of my EAs implemented dozens of strategies. I would use Demo accounts to (a) make sure they didn't crash MT4, and (b) refine settings and configurations. These are completely unrelated to the psychology of trading. Also, @RickM has learned through...
Hi Steve

I believe if some traders spend a few hours with a good Algorithm builder and watched the process and the skills required to design, build then testing a EA in a specially build Analyser, they would see the market in a different light. Its just fascinating to watch a pair move through cycles of consolidation, breakout stage then to full out running stage. At present, this is a running stage for many pairs like EJ / AU / UJ / EA just to name a few with the last major running period being in December 2018.
With the testing parameters I have, its possible to see when these runs start BUT the only way I can capitalize on this action is to also trade manually with discretionary trading. So I therefore trade the on live M1 charts for about 30 hours a week on top of my Algorithm work. I actually enjoy the stress of a trade going wrong, it keeps me human.

Talking about Demo trading, a interesting fact is most EA traders that spend months testing a EA on their Demo account actually get fearful of running their EA on a live chart. Some will go a whole year before even risking their money. At a recent conference last year full of EA traders (we may not be the life of the party), my mate established less than 25% were game to actually run their EA on a live chart.

So EA traders are paralyzed by statistical information and are fearful of live trading
Manual traders are paralyzed by fear of missing opportunities therefore can't trade demo
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,959
  • May 26, 2019 2:16am May 26, 2019 2:16am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Steve I believe if some traders spend a few hours with a good Algorithm builder and watched the process and the skills required to design, build then testing a EA in a specially build Analyser, they would see the market in a different light. Its just fascinating to watch a pair move through cycles of consolidation, breakout stage then to full out running stage. At present, this is a running stage for many pairs like EJ / AU / UJ / EA just to name a few with the last major running period being in December 2018. With the testing parameters...
Hi Rick -- thanks for the additional insight into your approach. When I was building portfolio EAs I spent most of the time calibrating, running, recalibrating. I never paid attention to different cycles. If a strategy performed well then it remained toggled on, and when it began to perform poorly then it was temporarily toggled off. With hundreds of strategies running at the same time then my software would periodically check performance and toggle strategies OFF or ON in a live account based on how they were performing in a Demo account. I should have paid more attention to cycles -- but that was probably before I was even aware of cycles.

Quote
EA traders that spend months testing a EA on their Demo account actually get fearful of running their EA on a live chart
Everything you say about EA traders matches exactly what I have seen, as well.

Quote
EA traders are paralyzed by statistical information and are fearful of live trading Manual traders are paralyzed by fear of missing opportunities therefore can't trade demo
Yep -- I'd say you've summed it up well.
  • #1,960
  • May 26, 2019 3:00am May 26, 2019 3:00am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Steve I believe if some traders spend a few hours with a good Algorithm builder and watched the process and the skills required to design, build then testing a EA in a specially build Analyser, they would see the market in a different light. Its just fascinating to watch a pair move through cycles of consolidation, breakout stage then to full out running stage. At present, this is a running stage for many pairs like EJ / AU / UJ / EA just to name a few with the last major running period being in December 2018. With the testing parameters...
You should chat to my son he uses 3D modeling software to optimize one of our EA's, he can look at the different Axis and there relationship to each other within the different indicators that form the Strategy
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Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
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