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beginners luck?

  • #1
  • First Post: Oct 19, 2006 12:38pm Oct 19, 2006 12:38pm
over the past two weeks i have netted over 500 pips. im 20 years old and would consider myself to have prowess in the forex market. while this is demo trading i understand that the mindset changes when you go live. what im afraid im doing is "accidentally" seeing trends/waves/reversals/retracements etc. what i mean is i think i see the trend but im afraid that due to my "success" its all accidental. any words of wisdom from you fine folks?
  • #2
  • Oct 19, 2006 12:47pm Oct 19, 2006 12:47pm
Before you get to confident... Take a day or so and read Trading In The Zone. It has a very good section on beginner's luck...



Quoting jrod
over the past two weeks i have netted over 500 pips. im 20 years old and would consider myself to have prowess in the forex market. while this is demo trading i understand that the mindset changes when you go live. what im afraid im doing is "accidentally" seeing trends/waves/reversals/retracements etc. what i mean is i think i see the trend but im afraid that due to my "success" its all accidental. any words of wisdom from you fine folks?
  • #3
  • Oct 19, 2006 1:47pm Oct 19, 2006 1:47pm
No such thing, I made $26 in 3 days only to lose $100 in a day after Philly report was leaked. And I was using indicators,MM, and wide stops (due to broker stop hunting).

I'm starting to think that trading Forex is becoming more and more like an online scam - i.e you always lose. According to the last currency trader magazine 90% of Forex money managers lose money. If these experts, armed with Level II data and insider info, lose money how can beginners hope to increase their accounts?
  • #4
  • Oct 19, 2006 2:14pm Oct 19, 2006 2:14pm
You need to continue demo trading for a little while longer.
This happens sometimes where your style of trading does well during a particular time period but around the corner waits a drawdown period.
In addition, trading in demo is very different psychologically speaking than live.
I would suggest that after trading a little longer until you experience some losses (and I'm assuming that you'll have some losses then switch over to live when you're more experienced. And when you're live, start with very small positions (micro lots) in order to experience trading with your own real money. You'll definitely trade a little differently.

Good luck.
  • #5
  • Oct 19, 2006 3:03pm Oct 19, 2006 3:03pm
i have losses. and which trading in the zone book i found 2 different ones and ordered one. my losses arent as big as my wins though. and i had no intentions of going live yet. just wondering if im kinda good or just lucky
  • #6
  • Oct 19, 2006 3:17pm Oct 19, 2006 3:17pm
The one I am referring to is by Mark Douglas. The first chapter is about the question you just asked.



Quoting jrod
i have losses. and which trading in the zone book i found 2 different ones and ordered one. my losses arent as big as my wins though. and i had no intentions of going live yet. just wondering if im kinda good or just lucky
  • #7
  • Oct 19, 2006 5:57pm Oct 19, 2006 5:57pm
Along w/ the Douglass book I want to recommend another that I have just finished the audio version of and am ordering the book. Not only should Noobs read it but there are a lot of 'seasoned' vets that could use it too.
http://www.amazon.com/Shut-Stop-Whin.../dp/0471654655

Quoting thepunisher
No such thing, I made $26 in 3 days only to lose $100 in a day after Philly report was leaked. And I was using indicators,MM, and wide stops (due to broker stop hunting).

I'm starting to think that trading Forex is becoming more and more like an online scam - i.e you always lose. According to the last currency trader magazine 90% of Forex money managers lose money. If these experts, armed with Level II data and insider info, lose money how can beginners hope to increase their accounts?
In trading, there is no bullshit. You either make money or you don't.
  • #8
  • Oct 19, 2006 6:12pm Oct 19, 2006 6:12pm
Jrod,

First, welcome to the wonderful world of FX and to Forex Factory!!

Maybe your are a prodigy, maybe you are not. I do know that if you are a prodigy, you are amongst a small, elite group in the fx society!

I wish you luck, and hopefully not just beginner's luck.

I have traded forex live, off and on, while running my business, sometimes shelfing it for other tasks, or from frustration, for 4 years now.........finally, I'm starting to make real headway and see things I've never noticed before....I'm probably on pace to be a proficient trader per the timelines experienced traders often refer to.


But let me try to tell you and all FF members my story with an analogy:

I play golf for hobby......I ain't real good, and I ain't real bad. B/C it is a seasonal sport here in Minnesota, I look forward to my 1st round each year like I do my 1st trade after shelfing fx for a while. The beauty here, much like that 1st trade, I have nothing on my mind except how great it feels to be back outside on an early spring day. I swing my club on the 1st tee box and presto, I'm in the middle of the fairway, while my partners are in the trees and the rough. It goes on from there, with effortless chip shots, incredibly accurate long puts (for a complete amateur), and if we are only out for 9 holes....I generally have the best score. But by hole 12, or my next round in the season, I begin to think and analyze, and perfect my swing, and clubface, and shoe tying, etc. This is when I prove what an amateur golfer I am. I know enough about good golf play to be an enemy to myself. Regardless of how much or often I play, what tips I'm given, or videos I watch....I have never been fully "in the zone" (Book plug) with golf except those brief, fleeting moments when I start anew......

What does this have to do with fx....here's my fx history:

When I first stumpled on fx, I was greener than green, knowing only that I've been to foreign countries and exchanged my USD for the Pound and the CAD and Peso. I also spent a lot of time watching bloomberg late at nite looking for clues of what mortgages (that's what I do) I should rate lock based on predicting treasury bond movements during the "Great Refi Boom of '03"!!

Long and Short (pun definitely intended), there was an analyst who talked about bonds and currencies every nite, and I took all my tips from his generalities about rate increases, geo-political pressure, blah blah blah. I was instantly bored with the demo and went straight to a $2K mini acct. I never even knew charts existed, no less MA's, etc
I simply got a clue that EUR would out perform USD and I'd go long. I'd shut off my computer and the next day I was up $90 and closed in the black. I did this for 2 months with nary a losing trade until one day, I either misunderstood, or my guy got it wrong. My balance was at $3200, and eventually went to a margin call with $97 in it, after insisting I had the right trade and the USD would recover from the JPY slaughter. Between that and the overanalysis and revenge trading, I lost it all on trades worth $1-4 per pip inside of a month........what a genious!!!

I can say that I loaded up again at $2K (after mostly demoing and thowing in a few bucks more here and there) about 1 year ago and now have $5700+ and looking to expand exponentially soon. It takes time to get good at this game, and it is easy to fool yourself you are good while you are learning. I have learned that many times over......

If only I could learn to bring my golf game to this level of understanding....

Hope you are not all sleeping by now, and this story and analogy do someone some good.

Thanks,
Jim
  • #9
  • Oct 19, 2006 6:44pm Oct 19, 2006 6:44pm
You can be assured that the only people making money on a consistant basis in Forex are the so called Forex Gurus who sell their systems and signals to the wide eyed newbie masses. Newbies have big dollar signs in their heads and the Gurus take advantage of that. My advice, save your money because most of the information you need to trade can be found on the internet.
Dave If you can't swim with the sharks stay out of the water!
  • #10
  • Oct 19, 2006 9:35pm Oct 19, 2006 9:35pm
i know some are frauds but im am looking into a company that teaches on many things in fx. from charts and indicators to fibo and elliots wave a little bit. i know i have many more months of study ahead. and i know i wont make money my first few months. outside of losses and small gais. if nothing ever sinks in one thing has that you fine people have taught me. persistance and patience are the key. money can be made at this even from the smallest people. but an education is needed and onece you have that persistance and patience are great virtues in trading
  • #11
  • Oct 19, 2006 10:03pm Oct 19, 2006 10:03pm
"Many more months of study and won't make money for a few months". If you are truely lucky that might be all it takes. For most of us, myself included, it takes years to make money and there is never an end to the learning part.
  • #12
  • Oct 19, 2006 10:17pm Oct 19, 2006 10:17pm
The so-called forex "gurus", most of which cannot be named on this site because of posting rules, make their money not through forex, but through being forex gurus. Ergo, getting paid to tell you how to do something they cannot do themselves. If I had the perfect system in a zero-sum game, why would I want to share it with you?
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #13
  • Oct 20, 2006 5:41am Oct 20, 2006 5:41am
Quoting jrod
over the past two weeks i have netted over 500 pips. im 20 years old and would consider myself to have prowess in the forex market. while this is demo trading i understand that the mindset changes when you go live. what im afraid im doing is "accidentally" seeing trends/waves/reversals/retracements etc. what i mean is i think i see the trend but im afraid that due to my "success" its all accidental. any words of wisdom from you fine folks?
Dont risk with your money, if unless ... you have billions ...
I would reccomend to start trading in live with small amount for some time, and then ...
  • #14
  • Oct 20, 2006 9:28am Oct 20, 2006 9:28am
Quoting mrgreen
Along w/ the Douglass book I want to recommend another that I have just finished the audio version of and am ordering the book. Not only should Noobs read it but there are a lot of 'seasoned' vets that could use it too.
http://www.amazon.com/Shut-Stop-Whin.../dp/0471654655
mrgreen, this is one of my all time favorite books. I highly recommend it. If you're offended by the title then you should definitely read it.
  • #15
  • Oct 24, 2006 2:19pm Oct 24, 2006 2:19pm
as far as the people making money only selling the ways how to, ive found serveral traders in my area have already made three to four time the average american income per year. unless they are lying about this then money can be made. you just have to wait for the trades you know. even if you only get 5 pips in a super mini. if you can do that with the same trade over and over then you can turn that super mini into your dreams
  • #16
  • Jun 14, 2007 3:12pm Jun 14, 2007 3:12pm
Quoting jrod
as far as the people making money only selling the ways how to, ive found serveral traders in my area have already made three to four time the average american income per year. unless they are lying about this then money can be made. you just have to wait for the trades you know. even if you only get 5 pips in a super mini. if you can do that with the same trade over and over then you can turn that super mini into your dreams

Keep phrase is, "unless they are lying about this...." is key here on this simple fact.

90-95% of people lose money in this game. And I am starting to wonder about whether or not it's an online scam as well. (As mentioned by some previous posters.)

BUT...I know some people make money at this, but for you to say that you know 3 or 4 people in your area making more than the average American income every year....please send me your city, because there is something really odd about your neighborhood.

Gurus are a waste. Like the guy before said, it's a zero-sum game. Why give away something that can make you millions for say.....$39.99 in a book?

If you do your research, most of them are failures as traders. Most of them also made their money before it was such a big retail endeavor. (All of us cannon fodder have definately changed the game in the last few years.)

You will find that all systems work, when the market is perfect for that said system. (Good luck with that.)

Forex you have dishonest brokers, banks that are out there hunting your stops, massive companies making transactions based on need, not price. And on and on.....

I have been doing this for about 7 months, and have had ups and downs. It is sickening, because mainly you can win just enough to get sucked back in.

Truthfully, I have turned a few people away from this game.
  • #17
  • Jun 14, 2007 3:30pm Jun 14, 2007 3:30pm
Quoting moneybags
You need to continue demo trading for a little while longer.
This happens sometimes where your style of trading does well during a particular time period but around the corner waits a drawdown period.
In addition, trading in demo is very different psychologically speaking than live.
I would suggest that after trading a little longer until you experience some losses (and I'm assuming that you'll have some losses then switch over to live when you're more experienced. And when you're live, start with very small positions (micro lots) in order to experience trading with your own real money. You'll definitely trade a little differently.

Good luck.
AINT'T THAT THE TRUTH!!

Now its just a matter of convincing yourself to actually listen to someone else, rather than learning the exact same thing through the school of hard knocks.
  • #18
  • Jun 14, 2007 3:33pm Jun 14, 2007 3:33pm
Quoting jrod
i know some are frauds but im am looking into a company that teaches on many things in fx. from charts and indicators to fibo and elliots wave a little bit. i know i have many more months of study ahead. and i know i wont make money my first few months. outside of losses and small gais. if nothing ever sinks in one thing has that you fine people have taught me. persistance and patience are the key. money can be made at this even from the smallest people. but an education is needed and onece you have that persistance and patience are great virtues in trading
I think I might know who you are talking about. Is that what they are telling you?? PM me if you need so I can tell you what I really think.

P.S. Have you considered the teaching forum on this site? The one you need to pay for? I think if you develop the right skills here, in that forum, you won't have to reprogram in the end, you'll have learned from credible sources. Hope this helps
  • #19
  • Jun 14, 2007 7:07pm Jun 14, 2007 7:07pm
Quoting clockwork71
(All of us cannon fodder have definately changed the game in the last few years.)
More than a few. In the year 2000, I was trading a fund and already discussing with my partners, How do we adjust our strategies to accomodate for the additional "Noise" that will be inherent due to the (then) expected massive influx of inexperienced Click Traders?

There may be a paradox here.
It might be because I'm an old fart and have been doing this, or some version of it, for decades but, I learned to Trade before PC's were as common as dirt and therefore had to hand chart everything.
I wonder what skills (other than PA and MM) a successfull Trader of the future should be studying right now?
Personally I would say that above all else, a Freshman Trader absolutely has to consider Preservation of Capital as the #1 Priority to ensure that they last long enough in The Game to become successfull.
  • #20
  • Jun 15, 2007 12:25am Jun 15, 2007 12:25am
jrod,

Some good advice that I've read so far. I agree that the #1 priority for the beggining trader is to manage your money, even in a demo account. It takes time and experience to learn how to successfully trade forex. You should stay with your demo as long as it takes for you to experience the different kinds of markets that forex presents. Study all your winners and losers and figure out what you done right or wrong. You must keep your emotions in check and just trade what you see not what you think.
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