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Soybean at Risk of Further Selloff as Trade War Escalates
May 15, 2019 By EWFHendra (Edit)
Summary

1. The months-long trade negotiation between the U.S and China has failed to reach an agreement.
2. Sticking points of the negotiation centers around intellectual property and technology transfer. The two sides can not come into agreement yet.
3. The U.S. has increased the tariffs and China has retaliated, effectively escalating the trade war.
4. One of the hardest casualties of this trade war from U.S side is U.S farmers. China has targeted them as they are Trump’s political base supporters.
5. Soybean extended lower after the failure of the talk and made 10 year low. Elliott Wave outlook still looks for further downside.

In our previous article, we highlighted the risk of failure after the U.S. alleged China backtracking on their previously agreed positions. Trump followed through on his threat on raising tariffs after the breakdown in the negotiation. On Friday, the U.S. increased tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods. Then on Monday, China retaliated by raising tariffs on $60 billion of American goods in 5000 types of American products. China outlined their requirements for the trade deal to the state media.
There are three key demands by China:

1. Removal of all U.S. tariff.
2. Purchases of U.S goods needs to align with market demand.
3. Trade agreement should have balanced text to preserve sovereignty and dignity of China.

The sticking issue is on U.S. demand to China to pass a law to provide legal option for foreign companies in China. This is to give assistance when foreign companies are forced to transfer their technology or intellectual property. The Chinese though believes that passing such law at the request of foreign power is violation of its sovereignty. To Trump’s team, it’s one of the ways to enforce the deal and it won’t remove tariffs until they see the laws in place.
Another issue is Trump administration’s demand for China to buy goods more than they need. To meet the US $1.2 trillion of additional goods to China over six years, it will require major adjustment in global supply chain.
One of the biggest casualties in this trade war from U.S side is U.S. farmers. China has purposefully targeted the agriculture industry as that’s where Trump’s supporter base is. Last summer, after the Trump administration announced tariffs on Chinese goods, China lowered its commitment to buy 366,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans for the 2018. The value of soybeans exported to China from American dropped 75% from $12 billion in 2017 to only $3.1 billion in 2018. The price of a bushel of soybeans dropped more than 20% from $10.50 per bushel to $8.
With the current trade escalation, U.S. farmers are even more vulnerable. Soybean prices hit a 10-year low when markets opened on Monday. China did not levy any new tariff against U.S. soybean, but farmers have suffered since China applied 25% tariff last July. China has also said that it may stop purchasing U.S. agricultural products. With realistically no breakthrough in the near term, the pain may continue for a little longer for U.S farmers. Technical outlook using Elliott Wave for Soybean also suggests that there is still more downside.
Soybean Elliott Wave Sequence Chart

The Daily chart of Soybean above shows an incomplete 7 swing structure from June 10, 2016 high. A 100% area extension from June 2016 high can see Soybean reaching $7 – $7.74 per bushel. With trade war still ongoing with no clear resolution, Soybean can see further extension lower to reach the target area. We understand that at current price, farmers are below the break even price, so at some points supply and demand imbalance will finally cause Soybean to rally.
Please note that market is dynamic and the view may have changed since the writing time of the article. For the latest update of 78 instrument, you are welcome to check our service with 14 days FREE Trial.

Elliott Wave Analysis: Forecasting the Decline In TESLA
May 15, 2019 By EWFSanjay (Edit)
In this blog, I want to share with you some Elliott Wave charts of Tesla which we presented to our members earlier this month. You see the 1-hour updated chart presented to our clients on the 5/5/19. Tesla had a 1-hour right side tag against 268.56 peak suggesting more downside at that time.
Tesla ended the cycle from 04/03/19 peak in black wave ((1)) at 05/02/19 low (230.52). Above from there, we expected a bounce to occur in black wave ((2)). The bounce unfolded in an Elliott Wave Zig Zag correction. We advised members that Tesla should continue lower. Therefore, we expected sellers to appear in the sequences of 3, 7 or 11 swings. At the 100 – 1.618 Fibonacci extension of blue (A)-(B) which came at around 256.78-268.56 area and that was the first area for selling the stock for short-term traders.

Tesla 5.5.2019 1 Hour Chart Elliott Wave Analysis


In the last Elliott Wave chart. You can see that the stock reached the blue box area. So short-term traders could have opened a short position at the blue box (256.78). Immediately the stock reacted perfectly lower. Any trades from our blue box area shown in the chart above were risk-free, which means the stop-loss should be moved to break even, and Tesla even hit the minimum target of 226.4+ afterwards which could have produced a fast gain. Please keep in mind that the 1-hour chart which I presented has changed. This blog should just illustrate how accurate our blue boxes are, and how our members trade our 3-7 or 11 swings strategy.
If you are interested in how to trade our blue box areas and want to understand how Elliott Wave works. Then I recommend you to get a shot on our 14 days free trial below. We present a lot of trading setups in our 3 Live Trading Rooms.

Tesla 05.08.2019 1 Hour Chart Elliott Wave Analysis


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AUDJPY Elliott Wave View: Forecasting The Decline
May 14, 2019 By Hassan Sheikh (Edit)
In this technical blog, we are going to take a look at the past performance of AUDJPY 1-Hour Elliott wave Charts that we presented to our members. In which, the cycle from 4/29/2019 peak (78.93) took place as impulse Elliott wave structure with right side tags pointing lower calling for more downside. Therefore, our members knew that selling the bounces into the direction of the right side tag remained the preferred path. We will explain the Elliott wave structure & selling opportunity our members took below:
AUDJPY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart Showing Selling Opportunity

From 4/29/2019 peak (78.93) the internal structure unfolded as impulse where Minutte wave (i) ended at 77.81 low. Minutte wave (ii) ended at 78.18 high, Minutte wave (iii) ended at 77.19 low and Minutte wave (iv) ended at 77.55 high. Down from there, Minutte wave (v) ended at 76.77 low which also completed Minute wave ((i)). Up from there, the pair corrected higher the cycle from 4/29/2019 peak in Minute wave ((ii)).
The internal of that bounce unfolded as Elliott wave Zigzag structure where Minutte wave (a) ended at 77.58 high. Minutte wave (b) ended at 77.18 low and Minutte wave (c) was expected to reach 78-78.51 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension blue box inflection area. From where sellers were expected to appear in the pair looking for more downside into the direction of right side tag lower. Or for 3 wave reaction lower at least allowing members to go risk-free in the trade.
AUDJPY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart Found Sellers & Turned Lower As Expected

AUDJPY found sellers at 78-78.51 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension blue box inflection area as highlighted above by ending Minute wave ((ii)) bounce at 78.05 high. And made the reaction lower as expected to allow members to create a risk-free position.
Keep in mind that the market is dynamic and the view could change in the meantime. Success in trading requires proper risk and money management as well as an understanding of Elliott Wave theory, cycle analysis, and correlation. We have developed a very good trading strategy that defines the entry. Stop loss and take profit levels with high accuracy and allows you to take a risk-free position, shortly after taking it by protecting your wallet. If you want to learn all about it and become a professional trader. Then join our service by taking a Free Trial.

CADJPY Found Sellers In Blue Box And Declined
May 14, 2019 By EWF Vlada (Edit)
Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the charts of CADJPY published in members area of the website. As our members know, CADJPY ended cycle from the January low at 85.23 peak, and as far as pivot at that high holds, we can be running new bearish cycle. Short term cycle from the April 17th peak is still in progress and we expect more short term weakness in the pair. Recently CADJPY gave us clear 3 wave bounce and reached important technical area from where we were calling turn lower. As our members know Blue Boxes are no enemy areas , giving us 85% chance to get a pull back.
Let’s take a look at the charts of CADJPY.
CADJPY Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 5.1.2019
The pair is giving us short ter recovery against the 84.37 peak. The correction is unfolding as (a)(b)(c) Elliott Wave FLAT Pattern. The price is reaching important zone equal legs area, blue box at 83.26-83.67. However we believe the recovery is still in progress, when we’re still in iii of (c) of ((ii)). We believe wave ((ii)) Flat should complete at marked blue box area and sellers should appear for further decline toward new lows.
Wave (b) recovery was very deep, so we assume recovery is unfolding as FLAT pattern. Consequently last leg up, wave (c) needs to be 5 waves structure. You can learn more about FLAT patterns at our Elliott Wave Educational Web Page.

CADJPY Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 5.7.2019
Eventually sellers appeared and we got decline from the blue box area. Wave ((ii)) correction is completed at 83.36 high. We got 5 waves decline from the peak counted completed and labeled as wave (i) blue. Then we got clear 3 waves bounce wave (ii) against the 83.36 high . which is already counted completed at this stage. As far as the price stays below last short term high 05/06, wave (ii) blue is done there and we can be doing next leg down. We would like to see further separation lower and break toward new lows in order to confirm wave (iii) blue is in progress. We do not recommend buying CADJPY at this stage and favor the short side.

CADJPY Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 5.10.2019
05/06 peak held nicely and we got decline. As of right now the pair is doing short term recovery against the 83.34 peak. Price structure is suggesting more short term strength toward 82.12-82.31 area ( sellers zone). We don’t recommend buying the pair and favor the short side against the 83.34 pivot.
Keep in mind market is very dynamic and proposed view could have ended in the mean time. You can check most recent updates in the Membership Area of the Website . Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences. We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room.

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We cover 78 instruments in total, but not every chart is trading recommendation. We present Official Trading Recommendations in Live Trading Room. If not a member yet, Sign Up for Free 14 days Trial now and get access to new trading opportunities. Through time we have developed a very respectable trading strategy which defines Entry, Stop Loss and Take Profit levels with high accuracy.
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Elliott Wave View: Nasdaq Looking to Turn Lower

Nasdaq (NQ_F) decline from April 25 peak (7879.93) unfolded as an impulsive Elliott Wave structure and ended wave ((A)) at 7290. The internal of wave ((A)) unfolded as a 5 waves impulse. Down from 7879.93, wave (1) ended at 7682.25 and wave (2) ended at 7872.50. Wave (3) ended at 7481, wave (4) ended at 7637, and wave (5) of ((A)) ended at 7290. Subdivision of wave (1), wave (3), and wave (5) also unfolded as 5 waves as the chart below shows.

Wave ((B)) bounce is in progress to correct cycle from April 25 peak. The internal of wave ((B)) is unfolding as a double zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Wave (W) ended at 7459.50, wave (X) ended at 7353.75, and wave (Y) of ((B)) potential area is 7529.62 – 7638.01. The Index has reached the 100% at 7529.62 but another leg higher still can happen as other U.S. Indices have not reached 100% in the 3 swing rally.

We don’t like buying the Index and expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for more downside or at least 3 waves pullback. This view remains valid as far as pivot at 7879.93 high stays intact.

Nasdaq (NQ_F) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

ICIC Bank Elliott Wave View Calls For Correction but Still Bullish
May 15, 2019 By Daud Bhatti (Edit)
ICICI Bank Limited is an Indian multinational banking and financial services company headquartered in Mumbai, Maharashtra with its registered office in Vadodara, Gujarat. As of 2018, ICICI Bank is the second largest bank in India in terms of assets and market capitalisation. In this technical blog, we would take a look at the cycle since 2009 low in ICIC Bank and also look at the Elliott Wave Count since 257.41 (July 2018) low and present our forecast going forward.
ICIC Bank Weekly Chart: 2009 Cycle Still Alive
Chart below shows the Weekly chart of ICIC Bank and it covers the rally from 2009 low, rally from 2009 low is overlapping and is corrective in nature and could be best described and labelled as a double three Elliott wave structure. 100 – 123.6% Fibonacci extension area of red w-x cycles would be the natural target area which gives us a target between 479.64 -553.28. Rally from 2016 low (red x) appears to be unfolding as a double zigzag Elliott wave structure , we can see 5 swings up from red x low which means sequence is incomplete and hence we see the current pull back to be corrective and another buying opportunity for a move higher toward 479.64 – 553.28 area.


ICIC Bank Daily Chart Elliott Wave Analysis
Rally from 257.41 could be viewed as a 5-3-5-3-5 leading diagonal structure which completed at 411 on 4/18. Down from there, the decline appears to be impulsive so should just be ending 1st leg of a 3 waves pull back in wave (B). Expectations are for a bounce to fail below 411 peak for another leg lower to complete a zigzag Elliott wave structure in wave (B). We don’t like selling and our preferred strategy calls for buyers to appear after 3 waves down in wave (B) to resume the rally for a new high toward 479.64 – 553.28 or a 3 waves bounce at least.

Sugar: Selling The Elliott Wave Bounces At Blue Box Areas
May 15, 2019 By Hassan Sheikh (Edit)
In this technical blog, we are going to take a look at the past performance of 1 hour Elliott Wave charts of Sugar, which we presented to members at elliottwave-forecast.com. In which, the cycle from 4/22/2019 peak (13.05) unfolded as impulse structure & showed a lower low sequence favored more downside. Also, it’s important to note that the Sugar was having red right side tag pointing lower favored members to took selling opportunity at the blue box areas in 3, 7 or 11 swings. We will explain the ideas & structure below:
Sugar 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 5/02/2019

Sugar 1 hour Elliott wave view from 5/02/2019 New York update, showing decline unfolding as impulse structure with a lower low sequence. And made a small recovery to 12.30-12.40 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension blue box area of a-b within wave Minutte wave (ii) offered selling an opportunity to our members looking for more downside.
Sugar 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 5/08/2019

Sugar 1 hour Elliott Wave view from 5/08/2019 NY Midday update, in which instrument failing at blue box area 12.30-12.40. Allowing members to get the reaction lower as we expected in an impulse structure. When the higher degree cycles were calling for more downside still into the direction of the right side tag lower.
Sugar 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 5/10/2019

Sugar 1 hour Elliott Wave view from 5/10/2019 NY Midday update, in which the cycle from 4/30/2019 peak (12.75) ended in 5 waves structure within wave Minute wave ((iii)). Above from there, the instrument made another 3 wave recovery higher as double three structure towards the blue box area at 12.32-12.31 100%-161.8% ext area of (w)-(x). And provided another short term selling opportunity at the blue box area looking for the 11.55-10.68 target area to the downside.
Sugar 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 5/12/2019
https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-...9-1024x504.jpg
Sugar 1 hour Elliott Wave Chart from 5/12/2019 Weekend update, Ended 3 wave recovery inside the blue box area at 12.32-12.31 as expected. And made the reaction lower we were expecting to allow members to create a risk-free position shortly after taking the short trade. Looking for downside target at 11.55-10.68 as far as bounces fail below 12.15 peak.
Keep in mind that the market is dynamic and the view could change in the meantime. Success in trading requires proper risk and money management as well as an understanding of Elliott Wave theory, cycle analysis, and correlation. We have developed a very good trading strategy that defines the entry. Stop loss and take profit levels with high accuracy and allows you to take a risk-free position, shortly after taking it by protecting your wallet. If you want to learn all about it and become a professional trader. Then join our service by taking a Free Trial.

Ethereum: After the Big Correction, can it reach $1600 area?
May 15, 2019 By EWFEric (Edit)
Ethereum has been following a very nice Elliott Wave structure and has been playing out nicely. The Instrument did a 5 waves advance structure from its all-time lows followed by a pullback in a 7 swings Elliott Wave WXY structure. The Following chart represents the basic structure within the Elliott Wave Theory which is the 5 waves advance followed by 3 waves back or also called an ABC correction.



Sometimes the Market does what we call a WXY structure which is a 7 swings correction or a combination of 2 ABC corrections. The following chart is showing how a WXY structure looks like which is basically the internals unfolding as a 5-3-5-3-5-3-5 sequence.

https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-...21-300x189.jpg

Now looking at the Monthly chart of Ethereum, we can see the 5 waves advance from its all-time lows in red “I” “II” “III” “IV” “V” which ended blue wave (a) at the all-time high. Below from there, it did a 7 swings pullback lower which we have been labeling as a WXY structure. In most cases, the WXY structure ends at the 100% extension area of W-X. As we can see in the chart below, Ethereum reached the 100% extension area at 97.21 and has been reacting higher since then.
Now the instrument should trade higher ideally into its all-time highs again and by breaking that peak it will open up another extension higher. The target can be then the 100% extension from blue (a)-(b) which comes at around $1600. That would be a fantastic return on investment.

Ethereum Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis 05.15.2019


The next chart shows the Elliott Wave view from its January 2019 lows and it is a very aggressive view based on today’s price action. We are labeling the move as wave 3 of wave ((3)) and going with the most aggressive view. It can be bought against the $150 lows.

Ethereum 4-hour Elliott Wave Analysis 05.15.2019


The Following video explains our view and why this is a very unique opportunity across the Cryptocurrency market.


I hope you liked this blog and I wish you all good trades. And for all who are interested in learning more about our unique blue box areas and also want to trade profitably in 2019 then sign up for a free 14 days trial you can cancel anytime. Click the link and see you insight.

Elliott Wave View Calling for Pullback in USDJPY

Short term Elliott Wave view in USDJPY calls the decline from April 25 peak (112.4) ended as wave ((A)) at 108.99. This suggests the decline from there is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Wave B bounce is in progress to correct cycle from April 25 peak in 3, 7, or 11 swing. The internal of the bounce is unfolding as another zigzag. Up from 108.99, wave ((a)) ended at 109.77 and wave ((b)) ended at 109.13. Wave ((c)) of B is in progress as a 5 waves and expected to complete with 1 more push higher within the blue box of 109.93 – 110.4.

The pair has already reached 100% extension relative to wave ((A)), thus it has met the minimum target requirement. From the blue box area, we expect pair to either resume to new low in wave C or at least pullback in 3 waves. If the present rally continues to extend higher to 110.42 (1.618 extension), it increases the risk that the entire rally from May 13 low (108.99) is an impulse rather than zigzag. As far as pivot at April 25 peak (112.4) remains intact, rally should fail in the sequence of 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.

USDJPY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Chinese Yuan Looking For Further Weakness Against US Dollar
May 17, 2019 By Ayoub Ben Rejeb (Edit)
The Yuan (CNY) is the basic unit of the Renminbi which represents the official currency of the People’s Republic of China.
The ongoing trade war between China and United States is affecting the economy for both country and the recent tension caused by U.S. Tariffs could be the trigger of more weakness in Yuan.
China’s currency had appreciated 30% against the U.S. dollar fro 20 consecutive year ( from 1994 until 2014 ). However in 2015, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) surprised the markets with three consecutive devaluations of the yuan CNY to boost exports in support of the economy.
Following PBOC intervention, the US dollar gained 15% over the Yuan but failed to break $7 barrier in the recent 2 years which can have significant effect over market prices.
The technical picture for USDCNY will help us to identify the next path for the Yuan. As the pair has ended the downtrend cycle from 1994 then ideally it’s looking for a recovery to correct that decline. Therefore, it’s looking at least for a 3 waves move against the previous trend which is represented on the next chart by a proposed corrective Elliott Wave structure “Zigzag”.
The initial rally from 2014 was in an impulsive 5 waves structure followed by 3 waves pullback then the pair started a new cycle higher taking 2016 peak but still failing around $6.9 area. The break higher created an incomplete bullish sequence suggesting an 5 waves move higher to a minimum target at $7.16 and ideally and it can extend toward the 100% Fibonacci extension $7.4 coming from 2018 low.
Consequently, USDCNY is expected to remain supported above 2018 low at $6.2 and the next step is to take $6.9 peak which will be the key level for short term cycles to allow trades to buy pullbacks in 3 or 7 swings against March 2019 low $6.6.
USDCNY (YUAN) Weekly Chart 5.16.2019

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Elliott Wave View: Alibaba Has Started the Next Leg Lower

Short term Elliott Wave view in Alibaba (BABA) shows an incomplete sequence from May 4, 2019 peak. The decline from there can either unfold as a zigzag or impulsive Elliott Wave structure. We use the impulsive structure as the chart below shows that the rally to $183.44 ended wave ((2)). This means, Alibaba is now within wave ((3)) lower. In Elliott Wave Theory, wave ((3)) is typically the strongest and longest wave in impulse structure.

Wave ((3)) is currently in progress as an impulse Elliott Wave structure where the stock is ending wave (1) of ((3)). Down from $183.44, wave 1 ended at $173.32, wave 2 ended at $180.24, wave 3 ended at $160.02, and wave 4 ended at $164.50. Another leg lower should end wave 5 of (1). The stock should then bounce in wave (2) to correct cycle from May 15, 2019 high before the decline resumes. We don’t like buying the stock and expect any rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside as far as bounce stays below $183.44. A conservative target where the 3 swing from May 4, 2019 peak reaches equality comes at $149.7 – $156.2.

Alibaba (BABA) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Elliott Wave View: Short Term Support in FTSE

Short term Elliott Wave view in FTSE calls the move lower to 7150.9 on May 13 as wave A. This suggests that the move lower from April 23 is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Wave B bounce is currently in progress to correct cycle from April 23 high before the Index turns lower. Internal of wave B is unfolding as another zigzag Elliott Wave structure in lesser degree.

Up from 7150.9, wave ((a)) ended at 7360.34 and wave ((b)) ended at 7267.84. Wave ((a)) unfolded as 5 waves where wave (i) ended at 7264.18 and wave (ii) ended at 7223.08. Index then resumes higher in wave (iii) which ended at 7353.51, wave (iv) ended at 7307.33. and wave (v) of ((a)) ended at 7360.34. While short term dips stay above 7267.84, expect Index to extend higher. Potential target for wave ((c)) of B comes at 100% – 123.6% extension of ((a)) which is 7480 – 7529. Index also should not break above May 13 at 7528.93 or else it will open further upside. If Index instead breaks below 7267.84, then either wave ((b)) is unfolding as an expanded Flat structure or wave ((c)) of B truncates and Index has turned lower.

FTSE 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

EURJPY : Trend Continuation Market Pattern Forming?
May 17, 2019 By EWF Aidan (Edit)
EURJPY Technical Analysis May 17/2019
EURJPY can be possibly forming a bearish Gartley pattern. A Gartley pattern is a continuation of trend market pattern. This market pattern must form within a trending cycle and should never be traded if it forms at the beginning of a new trend cycle. The Gartley market pattern needs 5 points to form. Points X, A, B, C and D. The X-A leg is the initial move higher or lower. The A-B leg terminates at the 0.618% Fib. retracement of the X-A leg. The B-C leg terminates inside the 0.382% to 0.886% Fib. retracement of the A-B leg. The C-D leg terminates at the 0.786% Fib. retracement of the X-A leg. The point D 0.786% Fib. retracement level is where the trade entry is triggered. In the EURJPY 1 hour chart below, there is a possible bearish Gartley pattern forming (blue). Price has yet to hit the blue XA 0.786% Fib. retracement level so traders will need to wait to see if the pair makes another push higher in the coming trading sessions. If looking to SELL EURJPY traders should be patient and wait for price to make a minimum move higher to the blue XA 0.786% Fib. retracement level. Waiting for price to move to the minimum XA 0.786% Fib. retracement SELL level will offer a better risk/reward trade setup. Stops should be placed above the point X of the blue bearish pattern. Above the point X invalidates the bearish pattern. As long as price stays below point X watch for EURJPY to make newer lows below point A where targets will be waiting to get hit. If price moves below the blue point C before hitting the 0.786% level then the pattern is invalidated and trade setup should be cancelled. Only time will tell what EURJPY will do but at least now you are aware of the level where the pair can possibly sell off from.
EURJPY 1 Hour Chart 5.17.2019

Of course, like any strategy/technique, there will be times when the strategy/technique fails so proper money/risk management should always be used on every trade. Hope you enjoyed this article and follow me on Twitter for updates and questions> @AidanFX or chat me on Skype > EWF Aidan Chan
*** Always use proper risk/money management according to your account size ***
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CHK Incomplete Bearish Sequences Calling The Decline
May 20, 2019 By EWF Vlada (Edit)
Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog we’re going to take a look at the charts of Chesapeake Energy Corporation Stock CHK published in members area of the website. As our members know CHK has had incomplete sequences in the cycle from the April 8th peak (3.57). Consequently , we advised clients to avoid buying CHK and keep on selling the rallies in 3,7,11 swings when given the opportunity.
In the charts below, we’re going to explain the Elliott Wave Structure and Trading Strategy.
CHK Elliott Wave 30 Min Chart 4.28.2019
Break of 04/18 low ( wave 1 Red ) made April 8th cycle incomplete to the downside. The price structure is now showing lower-low sequences, suggesting the Stock is bearish against the 3.20 peak- 2 red. As far as the pivot at 2 red high holds, we should be ideally doing wav 3 red down as presented on the chart . We don’t recommend buying the Stock and favor the shor side- selling intraday rallies in 3,7,11 swings against the 3.20 peak.

CHK Elliott Wave 30 Min Chart 5.07.2019
Short term bounce completed as truncated Double Three and we got further decline. Cycle from the 3.20 peak ended as 5 waves structure -Leading Diagonal. We got clear 3 wave bounce (a)(b)(c) that has reached equal legs at 2.89-2.99 ( sell zone). At this stage we are calling wave ((ii)) completed however need to see further separation lower from the Blue Box.
You can learn more about Elliott Wave Patterns such as Leading Diagonal and ZIG ZAG at our Elliott Wave Educational Web Page.
The main trend is bearish and we expect to see reaction in 3 waves down from the blue box at least. As soon as the bounce reaches 50 fibs against the (b) blue low, we will make short positions risk free and let the profit run. As our members know Blue Boxes are no enemy areas , giving us 85% chance to get a pull back.

CHK Elliott Wave 30 Min Chart 5.07.2019
Sellers appeared right at the blue box when Elliott Wave ZIGZAG completed at 2.94 high. We got expected decline and as a result members are now enjoying profits in risk free positions.. At this stage CHK is bearish against the 2.94 pivot, suggesting more weakness potentially. Now as far as 2.94 pivot holds, intraday bounces can find sellers in 3,7,11 swings for proposed decline or 3 wave pull back at least.
Keep in mind that market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences. We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room. You can check most recent charts in the membership area of the site.

Elliott Wave Forecast
We cover 78 instruments in total, but not every chart is trading recommendation. We present Official Trading Recommendations in Live Trading Room. If not a member yet, Sign Up for Free 14 days Trial now and get access to new trading opportunities. Through time we have developed a very respectable trading strategy which defines Entry, Stop Loss and Take Profit levels with high accuracy.
Welcome to Elliott Wave Forecast !

Reserve Bank Australia Will Consider Rate Cut
May 23, 2019 By EWFHendra (Edit)
In a speech to the Economic Society of Australia today, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) governor Phillip Lowe gave the strongest indication that the bank will cut cash rate in the next meeting. Dr. Lowe said that without interest rate cut, unemployment is not likely to fall much further and inflation remains low. The Australian Dollar immediately dropped below US69¢. The ASX200 also moved into positive territory on hopes rate cuts would support the domestic economy. The RBA last cut the interest rate in August 2016 to 1.5%. This is already the lowest level since 1959.

RBA Governor Speech Confirms Easing Bias
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The easing confirmation followed the release of the May board meeting minutes. In the minutes, board members also explicitly acknowledged the likelihood of a cut if the labor market did not improve. The minutes said “Members discussed the scenario where inflation did not move any higher and unemployment trended up, recognizing that in those circumstances a decrease in the cash rate would likely be appropriate.” Recent data in April however shows a worse-than-expected 5.2% unemployment rate, bolstering the case for cutting cash rate.


AUDJPY Weekly Chart Bearish Sequence

Weekly chart above shows a 5 swing sequence from April 11, 2013 high, favoring further downside. A 5 swing sequence is part of a 7 swing WXY structure. In Elliott Wave Theory, this structure is called a double three. Swing #5 can be complete already at 80.72 on April 17, 2019 high. Pair however still needs to break below swing #5 on January 3, 2019 low (70.66) to confirm the next leg lower has started. Pair has a 100% extension target towards 49.4 – 57.2 and likely continue to weaken with RBA signalling lower rates going forward. In addition, if Indices start to turn lower due to a risk off sentiment, then it can also drag the Yen pairs lower. Alternatively, pair still can do a double correction in swing #6 before it turns lower and continue swing #7. As far as pivot at 90.5 high stays intact, expect the pair to eventually resume lower.
AUDJPY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

Short Term $AUDJPY Elliott Wave chart above calls the rally to 76.39 as wave 2. This suggests that near term, as far as bounce stays below there, pair should extend lower. Pair still needs to break the previous low at 75.3 on May 17 to confirm that the next leg lower has resumed and avoid a double correction. Until then, technically we still can not rule out a double correction in wave 2 before the decline resumes.
Please keep in mind that market is dynamic, and the view may have changed since the time of the writing. To get the latest update, you can check our service 14 days FREE.

2020: The next U.S. Election can create a big Market Pullback
May 22, 2019 By EWFEric (Edit)
U.S. Election 2020: Many Traders always believe the Market moves are driven by fundamental outcomes. We at Elliott Wave Forecast believe that the Market follows a code which is visible and repeats itself in every single time frame.
We operate under the impression that only a few market makers make the Market. It is obvious that the so-called Market Makers cannot show and tell us the next big move in the market. Otherwise, every trader in the World will be a winner. Therefore, we need to keep a balance and there has to be Winners and Losers in the market.
We cover the code in our Live Session every day and make the case why sometimes it is hard to see the next path based on the timing. However, what we have been doing over the years is providing our members with opportunities before a big fundamental event takes place. That is our so-called blue boxes which you see in various charts from us.
That is an area where a big move should take place regardless of the fundamental outcome. The dream of every trader is anticipating the next big move. But it is hard using Fundamentals for that because they are not part of the Market Code which comes at 5-9-13 or 3-7-11. Let’s have a look at a real example which we provided for our clients in the past.
Back in 2016, Brexit was a huge event and every single Forex traders were trying to guess the next big move following news and even the polls.
However, we knew the area because the code and price action was very clear. Market Makers hide their big moves in such important events. So retails traders believe that the move was created by the event. The following chart shows the GBPUSD before the Brexit result and our Blue Box area where we said the GBPUSD should ideally sell off and that was the area to enter the market for a short side.

GBPUSD Elliott Wave Analysis before Brexit event


The following chart shows the big reaction from the Blue Box in a very technical way regardless of the BREXIT outcome. We didn’t know the results ahead of the World, we only knew the area where it should be selling off.

GBPUSD Elliott Wave Analysis after Brexit event


Another example was the 2016 U.S. Election. The Following chart is the Dow Jones Industrial Average before the 2016 U.S. Election.
Many across the world were calling that if Trump wins the election the Index will sell off and if Hillary wins the Index will accelerate to the upside. In the end, neither scenario happened and the Index started rallying from our Blue Box with a Trump win. We knew that the trend is higher, and the sequences were incomplete.

Dow Jones Industrial Average Elliott Wave Analysis before U.S. Election result


Now, obviously, people can say that was pure luck. Reality is that we provided the blue boxes to members before the actual event took place. And most of the big events come inline with a blue box. These are just one of many examples which we presented in the past.
But let’s get back to 2020 US Elections, this will be again a huge event which can create a Constitutional crisis in the U.S.! Due to the political environment which can be seen today and how both sides are fighting and accusing each other’s into levels never seen before. The idea is that the Grand Supercycle in the SPY ETF is getting closer to the 320.00 level which is the 1.618% extension from its all-time low and the top of the Blue Box. The following chart is showing the Blue Box and the Elliott Wave count.

SPY Elliott Wave Analysis 5.22.2019


Many Market participants are calling for the rally to extend into another 3 waves higher from 12.26.2018 but measuring the cycles and seasons, it is easy to see that U.S. Election in 2020 can create a multi-year consolidation or pullback in World Indices and the big Market Makers can be waiting for that area inline ending its 5 Elliott Wave structure from 2009 low by 2020 timing wise.
The Following chart above represents the Grand Supercycle in SPY and the levels which have been mentioning. We believe World Indices are not really close to a crash but thinking ahead, a wave (IV) can happen from the 2020 US Election results and not a very peaceful transition of power. Our member will know, how the Market will react when the time comes. But one thing they know now is to trade based on the technical aspect and follow the sequences of 3-7-11 or 5-9-11 which is nothing more than the Market Nature. They do understand a few groups of companies are bumping money into the Market every mini-second and making the Market.

For those who are interested in discovering our blue boxes then we have a great opportunity for you. Join us today with Memorial Day Promotion and save 50% on All Monthly Plans and learn to trade the Right Side through blue boxes and Right Side tags.

Elliott Wave View: Dow Jones Future YM_F Rally Should Fail

Short term Elliott Wave view on Dow Jones Future (YM_F) calls for the bounce to 25952 as wave ((B)). This move higher is a correction to the decline from April 24, 2019 peak. The first leg of the decline from April 24 high ended wave ((A)) at 25215 (not shown due to limited space in short term chart). This suggests that the entire decline from April 24 is unfolding as Elliott Wave zigzag structure. A zigzag is a 5-3-5 structure and wave ((C)) thus should unfold in 5 waves.

In order to avoid a double correction in wave ((B)) and provide validity to this view, Dow Jones Future needs to break below wave ((A)) at 25215. However, technical analysis on US Sectors such as Financial (XLF), Technology (XLK), Consumer Discretionary (XLY) suggest they have broken lower. Thus, we think it’s likely that Dow Jones Futures also extends lower.

Wave ((C)) is currently in progress and unfolding as 5 waves. Down from 25952, wave (1) ended at 25628 and wave (2) ended at 25904 as an expanded Flat. Wave (3) of ((C)) subdivides as an impulse in lesser degree. Wave 1 of (3) has ended at 25320 and the Index is correcting cycle from May 22 peak within wave 2 before the decline resumes. We don’t like buying the Index and expect sellers to appear in 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as pivot at 25952 peak stays intact.

YM_F 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Russell Futures Forecasting The Path using Elliott Wave Theory
May 23, 2019 By Daud Bhatti (Edit)
Russell Futures, today dropped below 5/13/2019 peak and now showing an incomplete sequence down from 5/6/2019 peak. In this blog, we will take a look at how our recent short-term forecasts in Russell Futures have played out and what we are expecting next. Below, we can see the short-term forecast from May 14 when we called a 3 waves decline from 5/6/2019 peak completed and called the Index futures to bounce in 3 waves at least.
Russell Futures 5/14 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

Russell Futures 5/15 1 Hour Elliott Wave Update
Rally from 1516 low was in 5 swings so we looked for a 3 waves pull back in wave B to hold above 5/13 low before another leg higher in wave C to complete wave (X) bounce. The low at 1516.56 needed to hold for this view to remain valid.

Russell Futures 17 May 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
Russell futures held above 1516.56 low and rallied as expected. The rally from secondary low at 5/15 unfolded in 3 waves instead of 5 waves so we adjusted the wave count for first leg up from 1516.56 low to be in 3 waves i.e. wave W and a FLAT wave X as the connector. Russell Futures completed the bounce in the blue box between 1564.15 – 1585.75 and turned lower. The decline from the blue box is in 5 waves so we expect the bounce to fail below 1570.77 high for extension lower.

Russell 23 May 1 Hour Elliott Wave Update
Russell bounce in 3 waves to fail below 1570.77 high and has now broken below 5/13 low. This makes it a 5 swings incomplete sequence down from 5/6/2019 peak and calls for the next bounce to fail for more downside towards 1464 – 1398 area at least. Near-term focus is on 1500 – 1489 area to complete 3 waves down from 5/16/2019 peak. This area can produce a bounce which should fail and find sellers for another extension lower towards the above mentioned area (1464 – 1398)

XOM Reacting Lower From Elliott Wave No Enemy Area
May 23, 2019 By Hassan Sheikh (Edit)
In this technical blog, we are going to take a look at the past performance of 1 hour Elliott Wave charts of Exxon Mobil ticker symbol: XOM, which we presented to members. But before digging further into the Charts, we need to understand the market nature first. The market is always a fight between the two sides, Buyer and Sellers. We at elliottwave-forecast.com understand the Market Nature and always recommend trading the no-enemy areas.
There are always areas where both sides, Buyers and Sellers agree into a move. We called these no-enemy areas which are reflected as blue box areas on our Charts, which gave us the reaction in favor of market direction in 3 swings at least. Now, let us take a look at the decline from 4/23/2019 peak ( $83.49 ) unfolded in 5 waves impulse structure and ended wave 1 at $75.17 low. Up from there, the stock was expected to fail in 3, 7 or 11 swings within wave 2 bounce for another 5 waves extension lower at least. We will explain the structure below
XOM 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 5/16/2019

Up from $75.17 low, the bounce in wave 2 unfolded as Elliott wave double three structure where wave ((w)) ended at $76.80. Wave ((x)) pullback ended at $75.21 low. And wave ((y)) was expected to reach our blue box no enemy area at $76.84-77.85 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension area of ((w))-((x)). From there, the stock was expected to react lower either for more downside or for 3 wave reaction lower at least.
XOM 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 5/19/2019

XOM 1 hour Elliott wave Chart from 5/19/2019 weekend update, in which the stock reaches the no enemy area at $76.84-77.85 and reacted lower in favor of turning right side arrow, allowing any shorts to go into risk-free position. The decline from $76.95 unfolded in another lesser degree 5 waves structure, which ensured us that any strength would be temporary & stock should see more downside against that peak. Also, it’s important to note that we switched the degree of labeling into intermediate degree cycles based on our correlation & distribution system.
XOM Latest 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart From 5/23/2019

Here’s the latest 1-hour view of XOM from 5/23/2019 Pre-Market update, in which the stock is showing a strong reaction lower as we anticipated by breaking below the $75.17 low. Now looking for more downside, as far as bounces fail below $76.45 high as both right side tag & bearish sequence tag are pointing lower.
If you want to see more real-time analysis & want to trade blue boxes & no enemy areas in XOM & other Stocks n ETF’s then join us with Memorial day promotion now and avail 50% discount on any plan your choice.
Keep in mind that the market is dynamic and the view could change in the meantime. Success in trading requires proper risk and money management as well as an understanding of Elliott Wave theory, cycle analysis, and correlation. We have developed a very good trading strategy that defines the entry. Stop loss and take profit levels with high accuracy and allows you to take a risk-free position, shortly after taking it by protecting your wallet. If you want to learn all about it and become a professional trader. Then join our service by taking a Memorial Day Promotion.

Elliott Wave View: Russell Should Extend Lower

Elliott Wave sequence in Russell (RTY_F) from May 6, 2019 high (1621.9) appears incomplete favoring further downside. The bounce to 1571.5 in the Index ended wave X. Index has extended lower in wave Y and broken below the previous low on May 14 low (1516.7). This suggests the next leg lower has started. The internal of wave Y is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from 1571.5, wave ((w)) ended at 1492.9 as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure where wave (a) ended at 1522.1, wave (b) ended at 1548.9, and wave (c) ended at 1492.9.

Wave ((x)) bounce is currently in progress to correct cycle from May 16 peak as a double three. Up from 1492.9, wave (w) ended at 1513.6, wave (x) ended at 1505.40, and wave (y) of ((x)) is expected to complete at 1526.3 – 1539.47 area. We don’t like buying the Index, and as far as pivot at May 16 high (1571.53) stays intact, expect Index to pullback in 3 waves at least. Potential target to the downside is 1441.85 – 1466.32 area where cycle from May 6, 2019 peak reaches 100% extension.

RTY_F (Russell) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)