Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 2938 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #58,741
  • May 22, 2019 5:27am May 22, 2019 5:27am
I'm looking forward to reading the answer to the question n°2.
I just hope that this is not too demanding for fti...
and I wouldn't want to bother him too much.
  • #58,742
  • Edited 6:38am May 22, 2019 6:15am | Edited 6:38am
Quoting ukmanthailan
{quote} I didn't get mangled, I got lucky, but I certainly won't rely on that happening again. I'll reassess my turning on the wind MM and MO, thank you. {image} I turned somewhere around the first arrow and added to my position somewhere around the second arrow, then the big Green candle came to my rescue. Apologies for my messy arrows. Edit: Looking back at the PA, I should have been out of my short positions with a good profit well before this happened...I lost focus.
I sold the G$ at 1.2734, got taken out at 1.2749, then re-entered after the big move, selling at 1.2771. Little risky after the big move on the rumor, but I'm only selling the GBP now. I'm still in the trade and added another position at 1.2711 last night, and just added another at 1.2667. A move above 1.2687 takes them all out. For me, the winds are blowing south (Brexit impact) for the GBP, and any north winds (e.g., reverse Brexit) are likely brief and an opportunity to wait for the prevailing south winds to start blowing again. You are being much less rigid in your trading than me, so well done on your part. I always wonder if having a strategy or plan is the definition of rigid. I reconcile this by believing that I am not rigid in executing my rigid strategy. I see the wind change, but ignore the moves against the plan. I'm a selective rigid trader, I guess. Sorry to drone on, but I loved your chart.
  • #58,743
  • May 22, 2019 6:30am May 22, 2019 6:30am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} I sold the G$ at 1.2734, got taken out at 1.2749, then re-entered after the big move, selling at 1.2771. Little risky after the big move on the rumor, but I'm only selling the GBP now. I'm still in the trade and added another position at 1.2711 last night, and just added another at 1.2667. A move above 1.2687 takes them all out.
I don't like going long on Cable at the moment either but it just felt like it was going to surge when I turned yesterday. I turned too early really but I got away with it. I've been selling again today but I'm all square now.
  • #58,744
  • May 22, 2019 6:48am May 22, 2019 6:48am
Quoting ukmanthailan
{quote} I don't like going long on Cable at the moment either but it just felt like it was going to surge when I turned yesterday. I turned too early really but I got away with it. I've been selling again today but I'm all square now.
Is difficult.
I initially wanted support may.
But seems she had made deals with eu without any reference to the british. This evident already, gets rejected 3 times already.
1 more time and she may need to migrate to eu with the africans already, i would think.
Any way is difficult see forward until a pro british govt comes into position.

For now is high country risk still.
Just my 2 pence.
Regards

I used work at MGrenfell, old peabody and blue blood bank, now belong deutschebank.
Barings, blue blood bank now belongs to ing insurance.
Maybe some want return favours to europe. But selling out own country is treason.
  • #58,745
  • May 22, 2019 6:53am May 22, 2019 6:53am
Quoting ukmanthailan
{quote} I don't like going long on Cable at the moment either but it just felt like it was going to surge when I turned yesterday. I turned too early really but I got away with it. I've been selling again today but I'm all square now.
I understand how you feel. I can see/feel the buy opportunities, but just can't bring myself to pull the trigger. The pound has been in react mode to news events, planned and unplanned, for over a year now, and I have decided to just take the thing in one direction. I get caught up in the updrafts, like yesterday, but once the move is over, it reliably squares the up move, mostly. Selling risks a few pips if something anti-Brexits hits the news, but the square up and subsequent continuation down more than makes up for it. I'm less apprehensive going one way.I admire your flexibility and fortitude!
  • #58,746
  • May 22, 2019 7:13am May 22, 2019 7:13am
Quoting Jupiter
{quote} Second question to fti. I have had infinite, immense, constant battles against others TAF readers about the interpretation of this post of yours... (I have tons of PMs in my mail box) #42554 - "Also I never did say no SL on trades. I hope no one misreads or misunderstands. Only no place/use Stop Loss orders." Would you be so kind and gentle to give some clarification on this issue? My experience: the major part of your readers don't even know this post exists, Sir. Thanking you in advance. Franco P.S. ... for fti's eyes only (LOL...
Eeer in battlefields, would you show the counterparty where's your white flag point.
Of course if you want to, you can deligate the cutting of your throat to a machine.
Just pray the machine is not working for your counterparty.

Regards
  • #58,747
  • May 22, 2019 7:14am May 22, 2019 7:14am
Quoting ftirecovers
{quote} Is difficult. I initially wanted support may. But seems she had made deals with eu without any reference to the british. This evident already, gets rejected 3 times already. 1 more time and she may need to migrate to eu with the africans already, i would think. Any way is difficult see forward until a pro british govt comes into position. For now is high country risk still. Just my 2 pence. Regards I used work at MGrenfell, old peabody and blue blood bank, now belong deutschebank. Barings, blue blood bank now belongs to ing insurance. Maybe...
Morgan Grenfell? I remember them. I used to work at Chase Manhattan in the City.

To be more accurate, I worked for a small stockbrokers that used Chase's dealing and back office facilities.
  • #58,748
  • May 22, 2019 7:20am May 22, 2019 7:20am
Quoting Exnav
And below will be just an extract from a story (1 chapter of 5 total). Source: http://www.abctales.com/story/baker-...d-man-mountain "Chapter 4. Twenty summers passed as the man labored in the village below, while the wise old man sat on the mountain and handed out advice. In those twenty years the man started a small business, which rapidly grew into a large one. He became one of the wealthiest men in the village and was greatly admired by his fellows. Yet, one day he sat down...

https://www.indiewire.com/2018/10/ch...ty-1202011765/
  • #58,749
  • May 22, 2019 7:21am May 22, 2019 7:21am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} I understand how you feel. I can see/feel the buy opportunities, but just can't bring myself to pull the trigger. The pound has been in react mode to news events, planned and unplanned, for over a year now, and I have decided to just take the thing in one direction. I get caught up in the updrafts, like yesterday, but once the move is over, it reliably squares the up move, mostly. Selling risks a few pips if something anti-Brexits hits the news, but the square up and subsequent continuation down more than makes up for it. I'm less apprehensive...
Thank you but I'm not sure if I'm flexible or just easily swayed.
  • #58,750
  • May 22, 2019 7:32am May 22, 2019 7:32am
Quoting ftirecovers
{quote} Eeer in battlefields, would you show the counterparty where's your white flag point. Of course if you want to, you can deligate the cutting of your throat to a machine. Just pray the machine is not working for your counterparty. Regards
Ahahah perfect!
But I'm specifically referring to the first part of your sentence, Sir.
“I never did say no SL on trades. I hope no one misreads or misunderstands.“

There are doubts on this point. I can assure you.
  • #58,751
  • May 22, 2019 7:33am May 22, 2019 7:33am
Quoting Jupiter
Cocteau Twins and Faye recorded some together and Cocteau wrote for Faye... and then something happened and they interrupted the collaboration! Unfortunately. Have a nice day. Trade well. Again: sorry for the invasion. But I'm on mission. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YjRdpC0ul_I
Inserted Video
  • #58,752
  • May 22, 2019 7:39am May 22, 2019 7:39am
Quoting Jupiter
{quote} Ahahah perfect! But I'm specifically referring to the first part of your sentence, Sir. “I never did say no SL on trades. I hope no one misreads or misunderstands.“ There are doubts on this point. I can assure you.
I am not communist party member. I know very little about it.
So i no comments.
I never force anyone on their thoughts.
I can just explain it best of my abilty.
Markets will teach you if you learned.
She will keep teaching you until you learns.

You see market makers will keep pfrofiting from you until you learn. So it not matters agree or not agree. Will be reflected in book.

Regards
Inserted Video
  • #58,753
  • May 22, 2019 7:43am May 22, 2019 7:43am
Faye... I love this woman! Thanks.

In the attachment a little bit of my personal archive on my desktop!
Attached Image
  • #58,754
  • May 22, 2019 7:50am May 22, 2019 7:50am
Quoting ftirecovers
{quote} I am not communist party member. I know very little about it. So i no comments. I never force anyone on their thoughts. I can just explain it best of my abilty. Markets will teach you if you learned. She will keep teaching you until you learns. Regards https://youtu.be/YRNRHzUoBuQ
Dear Fti, I think there used to be a saying like a snake broke his spine while trying to adapt to the communist party general guidelines.

Best regards,
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #58,755
  • May 22, 2019 7:55am May 22, 2019 7:55am
Quoting ftirecovers
So it not matters agree or not agree. Will be reflected in book.
As you could see in my posts here... It was impossibile for me to explain this point.


Premise...
I don't have to miss this opportunity of speaking frankly with you so I have “to weight” my words!
I take my risks in doing so... but I know you will understand my intentions.

If, about the question n°1 there is someone who says that he saw you “hedging” during some live sessions... (sic!)
About the question n°2, there's a large opinion here that you, with your teachings, advocate a sort of “continuous averaging down”
trading without cutting losses and in constant “rescue” of wrong positions.

Sorry to call a spade a spade.... but I have to. I received all sort of insults trying to defend your point of view.
  • #58,756
  • May 22, 2019 8:01am May 22, 2019 8:01am
Quoting Jupiter
I'm looking forward to reading the answer to the question n°2. I just hope that this is not too demanding for fti... and I wouldn't want to bother him too much.
You didn't asked question. Made statement.
What answer you expecting?

Regards
  • #58,757
  • May 22, 2019 8:07am May 22, 2019 8:07am
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Dear Fti, I think there used to be a saying like a snake broke his spine while trying to adapt to the communist party general guidelines. Best regards,
I know very little about them.
My directives was if i meet any. Shoot them.

Inserted Video


Regards
  • #58,758
  • Edited 8:59am May 22, 2019 8:11am | Edited 8:59am
Quoting ftirecovers
You didn't asked question. Made statement. What answer you expecting? Regards
Exactly the words you used in these precious last posts, Sir.
I already knew the answers.
> on the three legs thing
> turn on wind
> stop/cutting losses
> use of skews

Quoting Jupiter
On the beans: I think I got your point, Sir, but I can't agree.
Sir, you can't imagine the insults I received trying to defend what you exposed so clearly in your lessons.
This brief conversation is repaying some of my pains and suffering.

Thank you for your courtesy. Those were the reasons of the fights here. Different interpretations of pillars of trading.
To me, with these last posts you have answered to each and all points on the table.

And I have finished my mission of clarification.
No other disturb by my side.
  • #58,759
  • May 22, 2019 8:25am May 22, 2019 8:25am
Quoting ftirecovers
{quote} I know very little about them. My directives was if i meet any. Shoot them. https://youtu.be/pBRMRf0JVJc Regards
Thank you, Dear Fti. Not easy when it's only in black or white, or otherwise. Especially, when you are forced to accept black as white, or otherwise.

Best regards,

Inserted Video
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #58,760
  • May 22, 2019 9:00am May 22, 2019 9:00am
Quoting Jupiter
{quote} Exactly the words you used in these precious last posts, Sir. I already knew the answers. > on the three legs thing > turn on wind > stop/cutting losses > use of skews Sir, you can't imagine the insults I receveid trying to defend what you exposed so clearly in your lessons. This brief conversation is repaying some of my pains and suffering. Thank you for your courtesy. Those were the reasons of the fights here. Different interpretations of pillars of trading. To me, with these last posts you have answered to each and all points on the table....
3 waves and evaluating all the way.
Calculating risk vis a vis capital principals and foreign reserves.

Is not so rigid as 3 wave out then turn.
Wgere turn or not depends on analysis highlights and capital capacities. Also terrain and chart reads. Also fundemental guides fir broad timing. And technical price analysis for prisision timing.

Regards.

Inserted Video


I had a 1b usd daylight book.
You cannot copy me.
Best you can do is emulate my strategies and adapt mo to your book.
Similarities should be mo and strategies. Its not written in stone.

I really cannot see what you chaps arguments are about. May be just egos?
33 traders viewing now