Hello Everyone,
I imagine you all are a bit familiar with the EA I'm testing, Flyer!. I've been continuing to make improvements and do further tests on those improvements. My discussion here though I want to be regarding the accuracy of Strategy Tester in MT4. The reason being is that after making an improvement I considered to be worthwhile on my EA, I achieved a 99.72% win ratio out of 362 trades from 2/15/06 to 10/13/06 on the GBP/USD.
It seems totally incredulous that any program could achieve this kind of accuracy. It took 1 loss out of that whole period for a drawdown of 0.91%.
It is run on the M1 timeframe which is supposed to be the most accurate setting available (even though the formula for the modelling quality on this setting gets capped at 25%).
So how reliable is a 99.7% success rate on Strategy Tester? Who else has experience with this kind of situation only to see the EA not perform as well on live trading? And furthermore, can you explain why in live trading the results were so much different... what factors did not occur in Strategy Tester that happened on live trading.
I am attaching the report from Strategy Tester so people can look at these results.
Eventually, I may perhaps release this version of my EA to the forum, but before I do this time I don't want to get overly excited about these results before I do more testing.
Mainly, I'm just looking for some thoughts and considerations to the strategy tester. I'm also a very skilled computer programmer and have considered even writing my own program to back test strategies so I can make sure the accuracy of what I'm getting is true. However, it is a time consuming process to do such a thing and I'm also spending a lot my time actually trading the markets.
Ok, there you have it. Thoughts and ideas are much appreciated.
GirlFlyer
I imagine you all are a bit familiar with the EA I'm testing, Flyer!. I've been continuing to make improvements and do further tests on those improvements. My discussion here though I want to be regarding the accuracy of Strategy Tester in MT4. The reason being is that after making an improvement I considered to be worthwhile on my EA, I achieved a 99.72% win ratio out of 362 trades from 2/15/06 to 10/13/06 on the GBP/USD.
It seems totally incredulous that any program could achieve this kind of accuracy. It took 1 loss out of that whole period for a drawdown of 0.91%.
It is run on the M1 timeframe which is supposed to be the most accurate setting available (even though the formula for the modelling quality on this setting gets capped at 25%).
So how reliable is a 99.7% success rate on Strategy Tester? Who else has experience with this kind of situation only to see the EA not perform as well on live trading? And furthermore, can you explain why in live trading the results were so much different... what factors did not occur in Strategy Tester that happened on live trading.
I am attaching the report from Strategy Tester so people can look at these results.
Eventually, I may perhaps release this version of my EA to the forum, but before I do this time I don't want to get overly excited about these results before I do more testing.
Mainly, I'm just looking for some thoughts and considerations to the strategy tester. I'm also a very skilled computer programmer and have considered even writing my own program to back test strategies so I can make sure the accuracy of what I'm getting is true. However, it is a time consuming process to do such a thing and I'm also spending a lot my time actually trading the markets.
Ok, there you have it. Thoughts and ideas are much appreciated.
GirlFlyer
Attached File(s)
GBPUSDTEST.zip
27 KB
|
937 downloads