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The Swamp

  • #35,221
  • May 18, 2019 7:20am May 18, 2019 7:20am
Quoting wasntme
welp, i took the day off so i wouldnt torment myself looking at my DD... im still short EA and underwater 83 pips...if this doesnt turn around sunday and reaches a hundred ill have to close and like my wounds.... the way price has acted contrary to my system sells sugget the banks wanted to push up the pair for the slamdown cause of the election... AUD should firm up.... i dont know enuf about aussi politics but no matter who wins the contrarian play that auusi will go up.....thats what im hoping anyways LOL
I know of people who sold EUR/AUD at 1.599X and looking at the charts, I do agree with them. Next wave seems to be heading for 1.55XX region. Who knew Trump and trade war would happen and that simply made AUD weak.

Also, labour party (deemed to be bearish for AUD) seems to be leading in the pre-election polls, so it could also be possible that people are pricing in for a labour party victory and have been selling AUD. If labour party wins, there could be no further reaction. If the coalition wins, then we could see some shorts-covering, considering it is not cheap to sell AUD.

Of course, all this said, doesn't include trade war talks. If somehow there's positive news on that front, we can expect massive shorts-covering and should trigger plenty of SLs which in turn trigger more shorts-covering.

EUR/AUD has a ADR of about 150 pips, so being down 80 pips is no big deal on EUR/AUD in my opinion.

I think there's a 50% chance that we see EUR/AUD at 1.58 region within the month.

Coalition currently leading 60 seats to 54; 76 seats required to win. You can see the LIVE results here: https://www.theguardian.com/australi...rack-the-votes
If you want in on my experimental EA, PM me.
  • #35,222
  • Edited 9:46am May 18, 2019 9:14am | Edited 9:46am
Quoting wasntme
welp, i took the day off so i wouldnt torment myself looking at my DD... im still short EA and underwater 83 pips...if this doesnt turn around sunday and reaches a hundred ill have to close and like my wounds.... the way price has acted contrary to my system sells sugget the banks wanted to push up the pair for the slamdown cause of the election... AUD should firm up.... i dont know enuf about aussi politics but no matter who wins the contrarian play that auusi will go up.....thats what im hoping anyways LOL
After 10 years of a good economy. I dont see the problem with fighting a correction. China has had a booming economy for decades. Nothing heads straight up forever. That's just the way it is. Even without adding the current U.S. tariff news. If you want to know what's happening in Australia before it happens. Look at caterpillar stock. If Cat is dropping, the Aud will in the future. Some possible support 119/21 area. Closing the month below, isn't good for earth commodities. You occasionally may get lucky swimming upstream. But your pissing in a brisk wind in your face.

Your instinct will be to attack me for saying this. I generally dont comment often on others trades. Mostly because people have often proved me wrong. In normal times you can catch those swings.

This isn't normal times. The U.S. relationship with China has boosted the Aud for decades. Its boosted Cat for decades. The tariffs will hurt China and those dominos will catch up. Someone will step in, to sell commodities. To whoever takes the slack. Maybe Australia will do it. The U.S. has many of the same commodities purchased from Australia. The difference being, shipping cost. That added expense will be added to Aud commodities. The reality is, most of the China stuff is shipped twice. Once as a commodity to China. Then as a finished product to the U.S. Aud commodity producers will have to eat the shipping cost. To many other unforeseen reactions to name. Less Aud mining workers needed, and less China workers. W/o a job these workers will buy less. So many downstream effects to name. Houses get cheaper, less houses needed, to the coffee girl at the local dinner. All this can be affected and foreseen just watching Cat. Next will be Walmart... Aj leads it all.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #35,223
  • May 18, 2019 9:44am May 18, 2019 9:44am
Walmart is bullish on a yearly cycle. a weekly/monthly cone formed. Pa tested top of the cone last week.. worth watching cat and walmart, since AJ is inline to drop. If/When is the question for me. Sure it could all turn bullish. The down looks more probable to me. It may have already started. Or it may take a few months. Walmart would include many other retailers exposed to tariffs. Most U.S. big box stores including Home Depot are exposed.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #35,224
  • Edited 10:36pm May 18, 2019 10:24pm | Edited 10:36pm
Quoting wasntme
welp, i took the day off so i wouldnt torment myself looking at my DD... im still short EA and underwater 83 pips...if this doesnt turn around sunday and reaches a hundred ill have to close and like my wounds.... the way price has acted contrary to my system sells sugget the banks wanted to push up the pair for the slamdown cause of the election... AUD should firm up.... i dont know enuf about aussi politics but no matter who wins the contrarian play that auusi will go up.....thats what im hoping anyways LOL

i guess my contrarian world view happened again LOL usually doesnt pay to follow conventional wisdom even for bookies LOL

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/austra...r-win-lose-13m

aud shud firm up just from short covering the next few weeks and thats all i want


longterm gator ur prolly right but on quarterly charts aud is at support so a fall to the lows od AJ at 60 might take 5- 10 years

https://www.barchart.com/forex/quote...eractive-chart

i wish i could find yearly forex charts on the internet
buy the rumor,sell the news
  • #35,225
  • May 19, 2019 2:23pm May 19, 2019 2:23pm
AUD up big in pre-market.

EUR/AUD trading around 1.61 at the moment.
If you want in on my experimental EA, PM me.
  • #35,226
  • May 19, 2019 4:05pm May 19, 2019 4:05pm
So premarket overreacted, EUR/AUD opened under 1.62 but nowhere near 1.61....looking tempting for a short..
If you want in on my experimental EA, PM me.
  • #35,227
  • May 19, 2019 6:50pm May 19, 2019 6:50pm
im starting to look at audcad...think it will bounce a 100 pips...trumps already turning from tariffs to war mongering on iran cause some dipshit must have told him wars are good for reelection
buy the rumor,sell the news
  • #35,228
  • May 19, 2019 7:35pm May 19, 2019 7:35pm
5/20/2019 levels, next to print 1170 or 1154

MP PP ----------1.1218
WP R1 ----------1.1216
FP R3 ----------1.1194
WP PP ----------1.1184
RU R3 ----------1.1184
FP R2 ----------1.1183
FP R1 ----------1.1176
RU R2 ----------1.1170
FP PP ----------1.1165
RU R1 ----------1.1162
FP S1 ----------1.1154
WP S1 ----------1.1152
FP S2 ----------1.1147
RU S1 ----------1.1146
RU S2 ----------1.1138
MP S1 ----------1.1137
FP S3 ----------1.1136
WP S2 ----------1.1131
RU S3 ----------1.1125
WP S3 ----------1.1099
  • #35,229
  • May 19, 2019 7:58pm May 19, 2019 7:58pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD, Daily.jpg Size: 142 KB
Patterns have an underlying mathematical structure.
  • #35,230
  • May 19, 2019 8:11pm May 19, 2019 8:11pm
Chill before the busy week ...

Inserted Video
  • #35,231
  • May 19, 2019 8:25pm May 19, 2019 8:25pm
Quoting Boulder
5/20/2019 levels, next to print 1170 or 1154 MP PP ----------1.1218 WP R1 ----------1.1216 FP R3 ----------1.1194 WP PP ----------1.1184 RU R3 ----------1.1184 FP R2 ----------1.1183 FP R1 ----------1.1176 RU R2 ----------1.1170 FP PP ----------1.1165 RU R1 ----------1.1162 FP S1 ----------1.1154 WP S1 ----------1.1152 FP S2 ----------1.1147 RU S1 ----------1.1146 RU S2 ----------1.1138 MP S1 ----------1.1137 FP S3 ----------1.1136 WP S2 ----------1.1131 RU S3 ----------1.1125 WP S3 ----------1.1099
<<1145.9>> 11 days till month ends.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #35,232
  • May 19, 2019 8:27pm May 19, 2019 8:27pm
Relative on Idol tonight, Blaine Harding.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #35,233
  • May 19, 2019 9:38pm May 19, 2019 9:38pm
a close under this weeks EA candle which was pretty much news and election fueled and price shud drop to the yellow line...wether i hold it that long or not depends if my ADD kicks in and i jump to some other pair for easy pips...i hate to work
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUDWeekly.png Size: 40 KB
buy the rumor,sell the news
  • #35,234
  • May 19, 2019 10:12pm May 19, 2019 10:12pm
Quoting RegisMexes
AUD up big in pre-market. EUR/AUD trading around 1.61 at the moment.

there isnt a premarket for us retail traders...if ur looking at xe site for quotes over the weekend those are usually all over the place...

those quotes are for the fat tourists that just landed and have to exchange money cause they didnt do it back home before they flew out so the quotes are always rediculous to take advantage of those rubes trading their money at a airport kiosk
buy the rumor,sell the news
  • #35,235
  • May 20, 2019 12:12am May 20, 2019 12:12am
Quoting wasntme
thats enuf for now RM ...my first short was on the 13th at .6071 and my second was at 6049 that same day cause it looked to be falling and i was gona throw the kitchen sink at it LOL ....ive been averaging up and my worst DD was just 30 pips since then...i shud have took my 30 pips profit yesterday...i made a post about that yesterday and i could have bot cause i got buy signals and maybe squeezed out 20 pips but instead i held and added so im "out" like 50 pips profit for being cutsie but now its managing time and ill start averaging again once...

welp, going from 83 pips underwater to 46 pips profit feels great LOL

originally when i started making my trades all i wanted was 70 pips...a drop to 6100....but now that ive waivered but not lost faith in my system or my confidence im gona hold out for more...my first stop is at 6050 but my charts say it can fall to 6000 tho i wont let those jagoffs rip this profit away from me or make me get negative again so i put in a stoploss at my average breakeven...

Quoting wasntme
started shorting EA at .6171...TP .6120 closed my AJ and will reshort higher up

.
buy the rumor,sell the news
  • #35,236
  • May 20, 2019 1:09am May 20, 2019 1:09am
Quoting wasntme
{quote} there isnt a premarket for us retail traders...if ur looking at xe site for quotes over the weekend those are usually all over the place... those quotes are for the fat tourists that just landed and have to exchange money cause they didnt do it back home before they flew out so the quotes are always rediculous to take advantage of those rubes trading their money at a airport kiosk
Nope, I don't look at xe.com...I refer to investing.com...
If you want in on my experimental EA, PM me.
  • #35,237
  • May 20, 2019 2:14am May 20, 2019 2:14am
Quoting Boulder
5/20/2019 levels, next to print 1170 or 1154 MP PP ----------1.1218 WP R1 ----------1.1216 FP R3 ----------1.1194 WP PP ----------1.1184 RU R3 ----------1.1184 FP R2 ----------1.1183 FP R1 ----------1.1176 RU R2 ----------1.1170 FP PP ----------1.1165 RU R1 ----------1.1162 FP S1 ----------1.1154 WP S1 ----------1.1152 FP S2 ----------1.1147 RU S1 ----------1.1146 RU S2 ----------1.1138 MP S1 ----------1.1137 FP S3 ----------1.1136 WP S2 ----------1.1131 RU S3 ----------1.1125 WP S3 ----------1.1099
It seems like your FP S2 is around my S1 and FP S3 around my S2. I use traditional, yours are Fibonacci right?
  • #35,238
  • May 20, 2019 3:05am May 20, 2019 3:05am
last h closed above 1h R 1161 (now at 1160.3). possible test at 1183 4h. 1h trend R 1170.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #35,239
  • May 20, 2019 3:08am May 20, 2019 3:08am
Quoting gatorinla
last h closed above 1h R 1161 . possible t(now 1160.3)est at 1183 4h.
scalp a short here 1161...
  • #35,240
  • May 20, 2019 3:22am May 20, 2019 3:22am
Quoting Happy_Sniper
{quote} It seems like your FP S2 is around my S1 and FP S3 around my S2. I use traditional, yours are Fibonacci right?
I always have to update again weekly every Monday morning. yes I use Fib..

printed so far.. next to print 1170 or 1147...

FP R3 ----------1.1194
WP PP ----------1.1192
RU R3 ----------1.1184
FP R2 ----------1.1183
FP R1 ----------1.1176
RU R2 ----------1.1170
FP PP ----------1.1165
RU R1 ----------1.1162
FP S1 ----------1.1154
WP S1 ----------1.1150
FP S2 ----------1.1147
RU S1 ----------1.1146
RU S2 ----------1.1138
MP S1 ----------1.1137
FP S3 ----------1.1136
WP S2 ----------1.1125
RU S3 ----------1.1125
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