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The Volume Detective 411 replies

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(binned per thread starter’s request) MM (Money Maker) Detective

  • #1,601
  • May 15, 2019 3:05pm May 15, 2019 3:05pm
Quoting TopCover
Hello all, I've long been a follower of Laurentiu Damir's theories of the market and I want to share this chart which has a couple of views on GAPS and TARGET levels and I'm proposing that there is actually a DIAGONAL aspect at play..... Note the control (centre "fair-value" diagonal) runs through Gaps in price. Additionally I've marked a couple of Herd areas and the price moves away ran to the equidistant parallel diagonals which seem to be Target levels. I raised this area of study a couple of times on the other thread..... Dunno....seems like...
@TopCover -- you raised the question "What if the target line is actually a DIAGONAL?". And now that I've walked my dog and have had a little bit of time to think about it I'd say -- Why not?

To date we've been using TOPS and BOTTOMS to detect target levels used by the MM to lure traders into buying, selling, moving stops. And the way the TOPS and BOTTOMS have been drawn both manually (by @George) and the MMDetective and @SwingMan's indicators is using horizontal lines. But if the MM's goal is to lure traders, then they don't necessarily have to be horizontal lines -- they could be diagonal lines, as well. That is, anything that lures traders to do what the MM wants. I still think the ultimate goal is to increase liquidity so unfilled orders can be transacted -- but exactly how that is accomplished probably doesn't matter to the MM.
  • #1,602
  • May 15, 2019 3:40pm May 15, 2019 3:40pm
Quoting robots4me
{quote} @TopCover -- you raised the question "What if the target line is actually a DIAGONAL?". And now that I've walked my dog and have had a little bit of time to think about it I'd say -- Why not? To date we've been using TOPS and BOTTOMS to detect target levels used by the MM to lure traders into buying, selling, moving stops. And the way the TOPS and BOTTOMS have been drawn both manually (by @George) and the MMDetective and @SwingMan's indicators is using horizontal lines. But if the MM's goal is to lure traders, then they don't necessarily...
I think in a ranging market they will be horizontal and in a Trending market diagonal, because I don't think you can have diagonal gaps in a ranging market without having a further gap above or below it which would be on the horizontal line (a higher High or a lower Low)
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #1,603
  • May 15, 2019 4:09pm May 15, 2019 4:09pm
Quoting Robot Trader
{quote} I think in a ranging market they will be horizontal and in a Trending market diagonal, because I don't think you can have diagonal gaps in a ranging market without having a further gap above or below it which would be on the horizontal line (a higher High or a lower Low)
Yes Robot Trader that would concur with Laurentiu's thoughts - The diagonals ( parallels) connect a series of horizontal value areas as they move in a trending fashion. I've literally drawn the attached off of the first chart I opened. He recommended drawing the control line first commencing after a trend change and in such a way that it encompasses most of price movement. There will be tails or spikes and other small movements outside of the lines. As shown on the diagram he believed spikes outside of the value area often generate movement that "fills the value area (i.e. goes through the middle line to the other side of the value area.)

Additionally he sees connection between reverse points inside the value area and a line can be drawn to connect THEM also (my 2 heavy black lines on the diagram.) You really can start to see this stuff on all charts in all timeframes AND if you say do the lines on a daily chart and go down to H4, H1 and M15 you can see value areas inside of the larger areas.

Now.... my further thought is on those spikes that occur outside of the value area. If we study G's method and look for a spike occurring at a "target level" what happens next??
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  • #1,604
  • May 15, 2019 4:28pm May 15, 2019 4:28pm
Quoting robots4me
{quote} {quote} ...the thread was and still is inspired by the message @George shared -- and its direction has evolved during its short life. We've identified two types of target levels -- those created by TOPS and BOTTOMS and those created by liquidity gaps. Target levels created by TOPS and BOTTOMS serve to lure traders into thinking they are "support" and "resistance" levels -- i.e. safety nets -- to encourage buying, selling, moving stop losses in the direction the MM desires. Liquidity gaps are a different type of target level and probably...
Hi r4me

Newbie here, so go easy mate :-)

Having skimmed through George's thread, there's something that occurred to me in context of your above message: George doesn't try to figure which direction to trade - he is waiting for the MM to 'show their hand' which I interpret as wait for price to reach one target/ play area, then trade towards a target in the opposite direction after applying the 'filters', and when the price reaches this target in the opposite direction, naturally triggers trade towards a target where you came from, so rinse and repeat (boundless thinking)...
Live like there is no tomorrow - Learn like you will live for ever: MKG
  • #1,605
  • May 15, 2019 4:28pm May 15, 2019 4:28pm
Hi Bro @TopCover

Just IMHO, don't you think TMA Bands (with big periods) could also help to recognize this 'fair value' (TMA Mid Line/Salmon color) more dynamically ?

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Regard
NIH
Dog + Smile = Beautiful Day
  • #1,606
  • May 15, 2019 4:37pm May 15, 2019 4:37pm
Quoting TopCover
{quote} Yes Robot Trader that would concur with Laurentiu's thoughts - The diagonals ( parallels) connect a series of horizontal value areas as they move in a trending fashion. I've literally drawn the attached off of the first chart I opened. He recommended drawing the control line first commencing after a trend change and in such a way that it encompasses most of price movement. There will be tails or spikes and other small movements outside of the lines. As shown on the diagram he believed spikes outside of the value area often generate movement...
TC,

I see where you are coming from and while it is possible to draw lines on historic charts which show what you are identifying to be true, we always need to look right on the chart (the future) which is empty so how do we find an high probability that either the Range or Trent will continue, is there any message with these gaps that can give us an edge?

Regards

RT
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #1,607
  • May 15, 2019 4:41pm May 15, 2019 4:41pm
Quoting Nih98
Hi Bro @TopCover Just IMHO, don't you think TMA Bands (with big periods) could also help to recognize this 'fair value' (TMA Mid Line/Salmon color) more dynamically ? {image} {image} Regard NIH
Hey Nih98 - yes I think you’re right!

i never really really thought about what the bands might be telling us in this sense but yes they are drawing the value area dynamically!

And the spikes outside of that area will also be picked up. Good stuff!

R
  • #1,608
  • May 15, 2019 4:47pm May 15, 2019 4:47pm
Quoting Robot Trader
{quote} TC, I see where you are coming from and while it is possible to draw lines on historic charts which show what you are identifying to be true, we always need to look right on the chart (the future) which is empty so how do we find an high probability that either the Range or Trent will continue, is there any message with these gaps that can give us an edge? Regards RT
after a trend change it is quite soon that you have your three lines (or as NiH98 says the TMAs he shows draw them dynamically.) Now I would like to try Gs method spotting the herd and then using the lines to determine targets in a diagonal rather than horizontal way.....

not sure how LGs fit with this theory though......
  • #1,609
  • May 15, 2019 4:49pm May 15, 2019 4:49pm
Quoting TopCover
{quote} after a trend change it is quite soon that you have your three lines (or as NiH98 says the TMAs he shows draw them dynamically.) Now I would like to try Gs method spotting the herd and then using the lines to determine targets in a diagonal rather than horizontal way..... not sure how LGs fit with this theory though......
By the way, Laurentiu Damir’s book is “Price Action Breakdown” and it’s on Amazon and kindle
  • #1,610
  • May 15, 2019 4:55pm May 15, 2019 4:55pm
Quoting TopCover
{quote} after a trend change it is quite soon that you have your three lines (or as NiH98 says the TMAs he shows draw them dynamically.) Now I would like to try Gs method spotting the herd and then using the lines to determine targets in a diagonal rather than horizontal way..... not sure how LGs fit with this theory though......
I think a Trend would start to show itself first on the lower TF's while the larger ones still show the market Ranging. So maybe we might see gaps starting to form in a diagonal manner on these smaller TF's first, but will that give us an edge moving forward.
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #1,611
  • May 15, 2019 10:37pm May 15, 2019 10:37pm
Quoting Robot Trader
{quote} I think a Trend would start to show itself first on the lower TF's while the larger ones still show the market Ranging. So maybe we might see gaps starting to form in a diagonal manner on these smaller TF's first, but will that give us an edge moving forward.
Quoting TopCover
{quote} after a trend change it is quite soon that you have your three lines (or as NiH98 says the TMAs he shows draw them dynamically.) Now I would like to try Gs method spotting the herd and then using the lines to determine targets in a diagonal rather than horizontal way..... not sure how LGs fit with this theory though......
I'm following along and curious where this leads.

I have nothing constructive to add other than to remind you not to lose sight of the bigger picture:

1. Observations are great -- this is where innovation and insight begin. But keep in mind that if patterns emerge, then they may be part of the price manipulation to lure traders into selling, buying and moving stop losses.

2. With regards to manipulation -- I think the MM's ultimate goal is keeping currency markets liquid and filling unfilled orders. And I don't mean your broker's orders -- I mean in a much larger, global arena.

3. There are a fixed number of units of each currency and, so, BUYS and SELLS must match. If no currency units are available then there can be no buying or selling.

4. The only way to profit in forex is for prices to move vertically. It benefits both the MM and traders for prices to move up and down -- otherwise, the whole system comes to a standstill. And in order for prices to move up and down there must always be units of currency available to buy and sell.

5. My current view is that the purpose of MM manipulation is to keep shaking the tree to free-up currency units in order to keep the forex market liquid. This benefits the MM, institutional traders and retail traders. That's why I am hesitant to attribute evil intentions. The MM may be greedy and benefit more, but it also benefits us for the currency markets to remain liquid.

6. So, as you search for price patterns, I would also be thinking about whether or not you can tie your observations into some explanation that relates to increased liquidity.

7. If you can relate your observations to increased liquidity then that could open the door to trading methodologies. And that's ultimately what we all are most interested in -- how best to trade this seemingly complex system, which may not actually be as complex as the MM would like us to believe.
  • #1,612
  • May 15, 2019 11:02pm May 15, 2019 11:02pm
Quoting robots4me
{quote} {quote} I'm following along and curious where this leads. I have nothing constructive to add other than to remind you not to lose sight of the bigger picture: 1. Observations are great -- this is where innovation and insight begin. But keep in mind that if patterns emerge, then they may be part of the price manipulation to lure traders into selling, buying and moving stop losses. 2. With regards to manipulation -- I think the MM's ultimate goal is keeping currency markets liquid and filling unfilled orders. And I don't mean your broker's...
I keep rearranging my charts experimenting with different combinations of my indicators, @Nih98's indicators, etc. and something just popped out. I want to trade, right? I'm looking for setups that will help me decide whether to enter a BUY or SELL order. But with all these target levels (TOPS and BOTTOMS, gaps, etc.) I have a hard time deciding (a) whether or not to even open a position, and (b) if I were to open a position, then which direction.

But then the "newbie" -- @imeandmyself -- reminded me of the importance of waiting for the MM to "show its hand". So, now I'm beginning to break price charts into two types of regions -- regions where the MM is playing its manipulation game to shake some units free, and regions where the MM has shown its hand (and where it's best to trade).

And when I look at the price chart this way it gets much simpler -- since I can ignore 90% of the chart (where the manipulation is occurring). I trade 28 pairs and at any one time 20 (or so) are in the region where price is being manipulated -- so I move on to the next pair. I'm also using @Nih98's "TMA True Force Indi" to help me better identify regions where the MM has shown its hand.
  • #1,613
  • May 15, 2019 11:13pm May 15, 2019 11:13pm
[quote=robots4me;12275267]{quote} {quote}
Quote
I think the MM's ultimate goal is keeping currency markets liquid and filling unfilled orders.

[quote]If no currency units are available then there can be no buying or selling.
Quote

Quote
It benefits both the MM and traders for prices to move up and down -- otherwise, the whole system comes to a standstill. And in order for prices to move up and down there must always be units of currency available to buy and sell.

5. My current view is that the purpose of MM manipulation is to keep shaking the tree to free-up currency units in order to keep the forex market liquid. This benefits the MM, institutional traders and retail traders. That's why I am hesitant to attribute evil intentions. The MM may be greedy and benefit more, but
Quote
it also benefits us for the currency markets to remain liquid.

Thanks R4me

Those points you made I believe define the "value" concept and the value areas. The lines drawn are not random but define a value area where there is a to and fro selling/buying fest going on to maintain a fair price for a while which eventually is "won" by buyers or sellers ( and which impacts on Liquidity.)

When Liquidity gaps occur there is a large degree of action occurring and these seem to happen at the lines. This is NOT my theory but Laurentiu Damir's - it is not just a price pattern or a retro fit of lines randomly to fit an overall idea. Try it out for yourself and see where lines pass through LGS

Cheers R4me
  • #1,614
  • May 15, 2019 11:14pm May 15, 2019 11:14pm
Quoting skyway
{quote} The trick is to identify this "MM show hand zone" where the MM position is vulnerable. If MM is in position of strength we, retail traders, are vulnerable. In short, we identify which zone on the chart the "MM show hand zone" is weak.
@skyway -- yes, exactly. Thank you for condensing my verbose explanation into one sentence -- "In short, we identify which zone on the chart the "MM show hand zone" is weak." I used the word "regions" but "zones" is much better.
  • #1,615
  • May 15, 2019 11:29pm May 15, 2019 11:29pm
Quoting TopCover
Quoting robots4me
{quote} {quote} {quote}
Quote
If no currency units are available then there can be no buying or selling. {quote}{quote}{quote} Thanks R4me Those points you made I believe define the "value" concept and the value areas. The lines drawn are not random but define a value area where there is a to and fro selling/buying fest going on to maintain a fair price for a while which eventually is "won" by buyers or sellers ( and which impacts on Liquidity.) When Liquidity gaps occur there is a large degree of action occurring and
...
Quote
The lines drawn are not random but define a value area where there is a to and fro selling/buying fest going on to maintain a fair price for a while which eventually is "won" by buyers or sellers ( and which impacts on Liquidity.)

Okay -- I see that and it makes sense.

My point is that these zones where the selling/buying fests are going on are a result of the MM's manipulation -- to generate liquidity. These are also the zones I intend to stay away from. My "flavor of the week" strategy is to restrict my trades to zones where the MM has shown its hand -- i.e. where the price poked its head above or below the TMA and then re-entered.

In order to collect all those currency units being shook free during the buy/sell fest, the MM does its spike thing. In the immediate aftermath of the spike may be the best time to trade. Also, if there is an unfilled liquidity gap nearby and momentum is in the right direction, then that might be the best kind of setup.
  • #1,616
  • May 15, 2019 11:41pm May 15, 2019 11:41pm
Quoting robots4me
{quote}{quote}{quote} {quote} Okay -- I see that and it makes sense. My point is that these zones where the selling/buying fests are going on are a result of the MM's manipulation -- to generate liquidity. These are also the zones I intend to stay away from. My "flavor of the week" strategy is to restrict my trades to zones where the MM has shown its hand -- i.e. where the price poked its head above or below the TMA and then re-entered. In order to collect all those currency units being shook free during the buy/sell fest, the MM does its spike...
Yes R4me and that spike or movement outside of the three key lines is what you’re describing - when a spike like that happens LD says price will return inside and “fill the value area” more often than not. Let’s say (and I haven’t checked this) that herd validation is occurring around the central line - price spikes down and out of the bottom value line and we “buy” - then price moves UP “filling the value area” to the other side and killing off all those stops and then reverses again. In Gs world Is that a day when 2 herd zones are triggered (what I call a “double whammy”)

I’m not going to preach this - just inviting you do a quick check for yourself with 3 lines drawn to contain most of the price action. And remember this is a concept not my own speculation.....
  • #1,617
  • May 15, 2019 11:46pm May 15, 2019 11:46pm
OK, here's another thing that comes out strong (to me) in George's posts:

He talks of considering all timeframes, from weekly down to M15, and then timing the trade entry on the M1.

So then, in my mind, I would look at the Weekly first - if it has reached the target area/ playground, then wait for H4, H1, and then M15 to be 'aligned' as well -- so the total momentum favours our trade direction.

Entry/ Exit is then as per M15, and after taking profit on one entry, wait for it to go back to the original direction and trade in thesame direction UNTIL THE WEEKLY DOWN TO M15 align in the other direction, then trade the new direction as per M15 multiple times, and so on...
Live like there is no tomorrow - Learn like you will live for ever: MKG
  • #1,618
  • May 15, 2019 11:49pm May 15, 2019 11:49pm
Quoting imeandmyself
OK, here's another thing that comes out strong (to me) in George's posts: He talks of considering all timeframes, from weekly down to M15, and then timing the trade entry on the M1. So then, in my mind, I would look at the Weekly first - if it has reached the target area/ playground, then wait for H4, H1, and then M15 to be 'aligned' as well -- so the total momentum favours our trade direction. Entry/ Exit is then as per M15, and after taking profit on one entry, wait for it to go back to the original direction and trade in thesame direction UNTIL...
Weekly seems to me bit of an overkill from alignment point of view as h4/ and h1 will change directions multiple times while the weekly recycles - so maybe just have H4, H1, and M15 aligned in the same direction
Live like there is no tomorrow - Learn like you will live for ever: MKG
  • #1,619
  • May 15, 2019 11:52pm May 15, 2019 11:52pm
Hello,
When I draw a line on a graph with the LG indicator, a change in time frame makes the drawn line disappear.
Do you have this problem?

Thanks
  • #1,620
  • May 16, 2019 12:32am May 16, 2019 12:32am
Quoting robots4me
{quote} Hello @Ben -- I replied a few minutes ago, though I'm not sure I answered correctly.
how do you view 28pairs?
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