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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #58,561
  • May 13, 2019 7:54am May 13, 2019 7:54am
Quoting ftirecovers
{quote} Hey. Hi mike. Long time no see. So how's reno and tub business? Hug. The last i spoke to you market splashed your book. I hope you got over the "they broking cheated my money" feelings. I'm not sure what happened after, because i became very ill. You asked for what? Deleting my decade of work. Trying to bring real trading skills to help maybe the 95% of small traders who keeps getting squashed by big boys because they do not understand the markets mo. I'm myself not sure if these skills are still relevent. I have not traded the markets for...
Thanks for those words sir and for understanding. Yes I blew an account and took a break for a while. No sir, I would never ask for the thread to be deleted. Just that one post of mine. You are very correct about my way of "bulldozing thru". I have since begun to learn to slow down and observe. Age (49 today) and the new lady (Fiance 5 years) in my life have helped a bunch. Very good to see you back sir.
  • #58,562
  • May 13, 2019 8:02am May 13, 2019 8:02am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Non moderated thread needs take care of self when no FTI.... can only help a little.... no-one can be someone else (else ward 13)... online crazy when no fti.... although bit crazy too when FTi here...... Anyone tries selling then we know what to do. Too many looking for crystal ball (me too in past BTW). FTI needs care for health and have fun. Alex
I would like to clarify. I was not selling anything. I was merely trying to help others and mentioned the cost to see the full episodes. Not my charge theirs. Seeing this made me see things differently. Thought others might like to watch as well.
  • #58,563
  • May 13, 2019 8:16am May 13, 2019 8:16am
Quoting tubguy
{quote} I would like to clarify. I was not selling anything. I was merely trying to help others and mentioned the cost to see the full episodes. Not my charge theirs. Seeing this made me see things differently. Thought others might like to watch as well.
No - that is good to make clear. Did not think you were trying to do that here - think you explained that. I think it is up to each of us if peeps mention charges for anything - we must not be sheep (or pigs really following the crumbs ...) anyways - we are responsible for us.

Newbies who come online must take special care - I know some messaging goes on after visits here.... but if peeps pay someone not fault of thread think they are looking for crystal balls too often when hard work is required (and study) - anyway someone may want to pay for sth they think has value up to them - how the world goes round. But is always good to explain to peeps - not sure if it is against FF rules though - need take care on commercial grounds thingy I guess.

Thanks for clarity though.... not questioning you BTW.

i was just saying it is much easier when thread owner is around..... but FTI has given it all here already..


Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #58,564
  • May 13, 2019 8:37am May 13, 2019 8:37am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} No - that is good to make clear. Did not think you were trying to do that here - think you explained that. I think it is up to each of us if peeps mention charges for anything - we must not be sheep (or pigs really following the crumbs ...) anyways - we are responsible for us. Newbies who come online must take special care - I know some messaging goes on after visits here.... but if peeps pay someone not fault of thread think they are looking for crystal balls too often when hard work is required (and study) - anyway someone may want to...
Thanks. alaxandria.
  • #58,565
  • May 13, 2019 8:37am May 13, 2019 8:37am
Quoting tubguy
{quote} Thanks for those words sir and for understanding. Yes I blew an account and took a break for a while. No sir, I would never ask for the thread to be deleted. Just that one post of mine. You are very correct about my way of "bulldozing thru". I have since begun to learn to slow down and observe. Age (49 today) and the new lady (Fiance 5 years) in my life have helped a bunch. Very good to see you back sir.
Noted and understood. Mike.
Fiance? Congratulations. You buy the beers hahahaha.
How's old dad?

Regards.
  • #58,566
  • May 13, 2019 9:31am May 13, 2019 9:31am
Quoting ftirecovers
{quote} Noted and understood. Mike. Fiance? Congratulations. You buy the beers hahahaha. How's old dad? Regards.

Some peeps wanted thread closed as some bad peeps on it I think (could be wrong) and stories put about to some of us re FTI health (not true though .... ) ,

I'm watching my eurusd man as usual..........


Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #58,567
  • May 13, 2019 9:35am May 13, 2019 9:35am
Quoting ftirecovers
{quote} Noted and understood. Mike. Fiance? Congratulations. You buy the beers hahahaha. How's old dad? Regards.
hihi mister, please take care. dont over stress. seeing you post at the other side is good enough.

okok just dropping by and send my regards . take care hor.

rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #58,568
  • May 13, 2019 9:44am May 13, 2019 9:44am
I think the stuff here is still good, but there are some high tier marker making majors with 6 or even 7 decimal point, and bout the same for NDFs. NDF market access is still limited for retail, which is a pity, but it is the one good frontier along with EM and skandies now.

The making game have change quite abit, and margin is quite bad now. mostly just push order through.
some ccy is also market making with algos pricing up to 5mio. and everyone is pricing everyone directly AND indirectly, so flow wise is quite interesting when you're looking at the books,

But orders are still orders, markets are still markets, everyone just wants a profit here and there...

so dont worry my friend, IMHO, everyone should still be directed to the first 200 pages for the concept is always there to understand and internalise. after which, method and application can(?)/must be adapted and evolved as per market convention... As you always say, market will teach..
Only rats and scums will want to destroy what you leave here, is just sad to see who they are. just disappointed in humans. calling them rats is degrading to the rats itself.

<3
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #58,569
  • May 13, 2019 12:31pm May 13, 2019 12:31pm
Fti, since you are back, I'll participate a little more, and I hope you will comment as necessary. I won't call trades but will start by commenting on what pairs I am watching. For example, I sold the $Y last night (US Pacific Coast Time) and followed that up with sell trades today on the GY. I will stay focused on these two for the rest of today, but am currently square on both. Hope everyone got some today! Good trading!
  • #58,570
  • May 13, 2019 1:38pm May 13, 2019 1:38pm
Quoting RelaxRay
I think the stuff here is still good, but there are some high tier marker making majors with 6 or even 7 decimal point, and bout the same for NDFs. NDF market access is still limited for retail, which is a pity, but it is the one good frontier along with EM and skandies now. The making game have change quite abit, and margin is quite bad now. mostly just push order through. some ccy is also market making with algos pricing up to 5mio. and everyone is pricing everyone directly AND indirectly, so flow wise is quite interesting when you're looking...
Hey Relax,
Great to see you.
I see market structure changed lits from what you described.
From what you said. Seems there's no market makers already. It was fair on 2 pips spreads. If prices gone 6-7 decimal. I believe no one would want make prices for 10 dollar norm prices. If this is true, then the retail market going to have limited lifespan. I cannot see how the markets can carry without prices fir good sizes. If left to retail market making onlyvthen volatily will be unstable. Hedgers will avoid market. Catch 22 situation, step by step the markets will be shrunked.

Thanks for update, RelaxR.

Regards
  • #58,571
  • Edited 2:26pm May 13, 2019 1:48pm | Edited 2:26pm
Quoting GEfx
Fti, since you are back, I'll participate a little more, and I hope you will comment as necessary. I won't call trades but will start by commenting on what pairs I am watching. For example, I sold the $ laYst night (US Pacific Coast Time) and followed that up with sell trades today on the GY. I will stay focused on these two for the rest of today, but am currently square on both. Hope everyone got some today! Good trading!
Hahaha Pros will always be Pros.
Thats what i heard too.
Due to trade war. They headging to yen awaiting to see how communist china will respond to thrump.
They voiced reciprocal respondse. So the game will be in the usd/yen(HAHAHAHA, sorry my phone keyboard no have dollar sign. Huawei, hahahaha)
You are spot on sir. Short D/Y should be best bets for mom Until we see the cccc 's hand.

I have no trades so playing by ear only.
Be nimble, my friend. Suspect will be very high vola prices.expect dance partner is wild girl.

Cable would be muted with brexit still in limbo. long cable would not be so exciting.
Regards

Viewed charts
109.50 cracked w bottom anywhere up to 110 is good scout short level 1 to 3 attack In stages.
The way support cracked. Seems no liquidity.
Don't force size , already chart late. Have patience use mild skews.
  • #58,572
  • May 13, 2019 3:54pm May 13, 2019 3:54pm
Its so true.
Noone know hiw end comes.
So true.

Regards
https://horses-world.com/2018/07/03/...horse-dr-drip/
  • #58,573
  • May 13, 2019 4:05pm May 13, 2019 4:05pm
Quoting ftirecovers
{quote} Hey Relax, Great to see you. I see market structure changed lits from what you described. From what you said. Seems there's no market makers already. It was fair on 2 pips spreads. If prices gone 6-7 decimal. I believe no one would want make prices for 10 dollar norm prices. If this is true, then the retail market going to have limited lifespan. I cannot see how the markets can carry without prices fir good sizes. If left to retail market making onlyvthen volatily will be unstable. Hedgers will avoid market. Catch 22 situation, step by step...
Hihi boss
yea that is somewhat right. some are hesitate to make full amount orders of 10 buck and would rather you hit on the 1 and 5s. but true large makers do make sizes up to 50m+ on FAT order.. on the contary, vwap orders of large sizes are very very frowned upon. moves the market too much. tier 1 FAT would get euro$ 50m for about 1pip, real money buyer maybe get it for 5-10pip.

retail market is actually very lucrative(spread + comm). and everyone(including tier1) wants to get a piece of the pie.. the thing is, because of this, and you are spot on again, market moves from lull to sporatic and wild very quickly, and is quite unstable somewhat. because of the many aggregated providers out there, on the ecn and darkpools order matching is very different when people use to deal primarily on voice. now the same client, would do maybe 50 on voice, 50 on ebs and then 50 on another dark pool. depending on book type(and because everyone price everyone), some are resting order type, it would trigger a shift in book stance on the particular book prompting them to shift accordingly and may cause a ripple effect throughout, in very minuet and subtle proportion but the algos would slowly feed on itselfs(just scenario #1)... voice bros are on its way out...

yep, its true, volume is trending steadily down as well.

(Y) a true master indeed ! masterclass read.

rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #58,574
  • May 13, 2019 4:36pm May 13, 2019 4:36pm
Quoting ftirecovers
Its so true. Noone know hiw end comes. So true. Regards https://horses-world.com/2018/07/03/...horse-dr-drip/
if man is superior to animals and they treat them this way.
if god is superior to man and they deserve to be treated anyway he wants.

the world is not human centric. we are discovering many galaxies and our size is super super super super tiny spec. if god is out there, it will not even occur to think of humans in his mind.

do we think of ants we trampled ?
  • #58,575
  • May 13, 2019 5:11pm May 13, 2019 5:11pm
Quoting ftirecovers
{quote} Hahaha Pros will always be Pros. Thats what i heard too. Due to trade war. They headging to yen awaiting to see how communist china will respond to thrump. They voiced reciprocal respondse. So the game will be in the usd/yen(HAHAHAHA, sorry my phone keyboard no have dollar sign. Huawei, hahahaha) You are spot on sir. Short D/Y should be best bets for mom Until we see the cccc 's hand. I have no trades so playing by ear only. Be nimble, my friend. Suspect will be very high vola prices.expect dance partner is wild girl. Cable would be muted...
Yes, we now have Trade War to add to Brexit. Watching a new New World order emerge...lol. Been shorting GBP after it pops up for months and months now. The uncertainly has been good for trading as events unfold, but life for people is difficult and confusing as corruption and power play tug of war with the future. Fyi...I added EA to my watchlist, a little late but let's see what happens.
  • #58,576
  • May 13, 2019 6:45pm May 13, 2019 6:45pm
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} Hihi boss yea that is somewhat right. some are hesitate to make full amount orders of 10 buck and would rather you hit on the 1 and 5s. but true large makers do make sizes up to 50m+ on FAT order.. on the contary, vwap orders of large sizes are very very frowned upon. moves the market too much. tier 1 FAT would get euro$ 50m for about 1pip, real money buyer maybe get it for 5-10pip. retail market is actually very lucrative(spread + comm). and everyone(including tier1) wants to get a piece of the pie.. the thing is, because of this, and you...
I am very thankful for your market structure update.

I am also so very delighted at you kind words.
To be correct. I am now very sick ronin, samurai without lord. Warrior with weak heart. Hahaha just a methafore.

Thanks again RR.
Regards
  • #58,577
  • Edited 7:17pm May 13, 2019 7:07pm | Edited 7:17pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Yes, we now have Trade War to add to Brexit. Watching a new New World order emerge...lol. Been shorting GBP after it pops up for months and months now. The uncertainly has been good for trading as events unfold, but life for people is difficult and confusing as corruption and power play tug of war with the future. Fyi...I added EA to my watchlist, a little late but let's see what happens.
I believe you must be aware. Us uped tarrif 200b on chinese good. And now another 300b additional traffs. U would suspect cccp think tanks are now on full steam find ways to retaliate.
So thoughts would be focused on the yen hedgers. I suspect.

Cable is full of uncertainties.
1.brexit
2.supporting huawei 5g against us advisory.
3 Pm resignation.

So i just cannot put my fingers on whats market reactions. Would be whippy.

Europe is trying to get cheaper funds accepting the belt road inititives. So question seems to be US seems isolated. But we cannot tell what will do if tensions really escalates. Will the allys realign? Unless euroz is planning play negetive rates game again. Which may deter cccp. Its eating out of cccp hands for now.

Key benchmarks now would be bullion. But thats already responded to the Iran thingy. Very overbought The other kid on the block would be black gold , but i not have intel on the stockpile situation. Venez and iran is on russian and cccp side of the table. So the pressure would be on US.

I have no trade access now. But i have bad habit always keeping my ears on the wires. Otherwise life becomes..... Hahahaha..... Its when in coma my mind gets rest in piece. No peace.

Regards
  • #58,578
  • May 13, 2019 8:54pm May 13, 2019 8:54pm
Hi fti, I've missed these discussions. IMHO, Trump has looked at 30 years of globalization, and says no thanks and no more. He is playing with a completely new set of rules than the last 5 US Presidents. For example: China trade. Trump is going to rebalance the US relationship with China. If they'd like to participate in that rebalancing by agreeing to new trade rules, that great. If they refuse to negotiate, that's ok, too. A 25% tariff on Chinese goods will work for Trump, too. The tariff gives manufacturers a 25% incentive to move production out of China into other countries, and he's hoping some of the $600 billion will land back in the US. The impact on the US is less significant, and he's betting he can offer tax incentives to get farmers and other businesses over the short term pain from retaliatory Chinese tariffs.

And the EU is next.

Of course, we can't trade any of that tonight and tomorrow morning, but we can look for daily confirmation of these disruptive waves. And it seems that disruptive waves are forming all over the world, as you presented in your post. The fundamentals are clearly seen in market structure.
  • #58,579
  • May 14, 2019 12:22am May 14, 2019 12:22am
Am i dreaming...Chief is here?????
  • #58,580
  • May 14, 2019 12:24am May 14, 2019 12:24am
Quoting ftirecovers
{quote} Hi v, My messanger is disabled. Thats why no replys from me. Security issue. Anyway i read your request. I am at mom not trading. Still cannot stress. So no input from me. I thought yiu was leaving pim., not yet? Any way keep 1 eye on the yellow metal. I hearing something story about JimR buyout. Regards ps:my buckets not ready and too rusty. Old pump also not at best. Regards

Got it chief....see many posts on FB from you...good to see you here...

V
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