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The Volume Detective 411 replies

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(binned per thread starter’s request) MM (Money Maker) Detective

  • #1,241
  • May 10, 2019 8:33am May 10, 2019 8:33am
Now, switch back to H4, and see price revisits our area of interest (Bar No.2), then check if it is within the extreme zone to confirm another long trade. My settings show it was. Then open another long trade. Regarding TP, stay on H4 chart and see LG where I marked with blue rectangle and put a limit sell order where the gap will be closed (Bar No.3). As I mentioned previously, you can use other TP strategies as well. This does not mean I am using LGs only for TP, just showing you how they are closed to the pip and how you can use them for your trading.

Just after closing the long position, if you switch to M15 chart, there is a short trade (between 1.3031-1.3035) where price hit the extreme zone.

To be able to trade like this, focus and screen time are crucial, IMHO. Therefore, if you are trading alone it is strongly advisable to trade only a few pairs at the beginning (max. 3 pairs for me as I have 3 screens).

Hope you benefit from these posts.

Regards,
Blackeagle
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  • #1,242
  • Edited 9:43am May 10, 2019 9:23am | Edited 9:43am
Quoting robots4me
Another thing I forgot to mention -- and that is the precision of the MM's algorithm. Please give credit to @George -- obviously this is not my idea. The other night @George showed me a number of things and it was information overload. But I got the flavor. When you watch @George mark-up a chart he can show you that prices reach within a fraction of a pip of where he expects the price to end up. And it's crucial to grasp this. @George is a brilliant trader, yes, but the fact he can demonstrate the manipulation to within a fraction of a pip proves...
There is no need for a MM bogeyman to be doing any of this. The market is there to match buyers to sellers. The market strives to be efficient. You can see this by the Gaussian distribution of the market over time.
  • #1,243
  • May 10, 2019 10:45am May 10, 2019 10:45am
Quoting robots4me
There are two types of "gaps" I'm now aware of -- liquidity gaps and price gaps -- perhaps there's more, I don't know.
Liquidity gap is the cause. Price gap is the effect. When the liquidity gap happens between the close of a candle and the open of the next candle then it shows as a price gap. When the liquidity gap is occurring within a candle it is hidden. For what you are calling a liquidity gap is really a hidden gap. Other threads have called this correctly.
  • #1,244
  • May 10, 2019 10:47am May 10, 2019 10:47am
Quoting TopCover
Liquidity gaps currently on M15 GBPJPY are stacked. assumption - as the market is fractal, the position on larger TFs all the way up to monthly will overlay and impact. All of this adds to the road map, to determine where the MM might be focusing its attention. Just in in my opinion. {image} {image}
Tails are definitely not liquidity gaps. Quite the opposite. Price battles are going on there. Old saying... "Trade away from tails".
  • #1,245
  • May 10, 2019 12:14pm May 10, 2019 12:14pm
lrobots4me, I am sorry for how I responded to you in post #193. Totally uncalled for. Moodybot is correct I should handled that much nicer. I hope this will clear up this matter & you have much success with you thread. Best wishes to you for the future.
  • #1,246
  • May 10, 2019 12:18pm May 10, 2019 12:18pm
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Mate, 2407 is a good read. Essential. Acetrader could have presented his post to you slightly nicer but I wouldn’t ban him from the thread. When looking at the market (price), the psychological look of the candles in an ascending market draws our eyes to the tops, which subsequently get taken out in a continued move. People place trend lines etc from those tops, looking for shorts, in my opinion completely opposite to where the real information is stored. Eventually leaving a top but having been stopped out multiple times on the way up....







Moodybot, Thank you my friend. Your right I should have been nicer. I was out of line. Best wishes.
  • #1,247
  • May 10, 2019 12:23pm May 10, 2019 12:23pm
Quoting acetrader
lrobots4me, I am sorry for how I responded to you in post #193. Totally uncalled for. Moodybot is correct I should handled that much nicer. I hope this will clear up this matter & you have much success with you thread. Best wishes to you for the future.
Hey @acetrader -- thanks... All is clear and I also wish you the best.

Your post wasn't that bad -- I've posted much worse. Just don't go searching for what I posted on @George's thread back in January or February
  • #1,248
  • May 10, 2019 12:43pm May 10, 2019 12:43pm
Quoting BlackStack
{quote} There is no need for a MM bogeyman to be doing any of this. The market is there to match buyers to sellers. The market strives to be efficient. You can see this by the Gaussian distribution of the market over time.
Well -- I don't know. Are you saying the MM is wasting it's time? I understand what you mean about matching buyers and sellers.

Look it -- manipulation is clearly occurring. It sounds like you're saying they are putting in a lot of sweat for no reason. Other than noticing the manipulation I don't understand market mechanics at all. Since manipulation occurs, then I assume there's a reason and the reason is to make more money than if it wasn't being manipulated. Or, maybe the MM is simply bored and has nothing better to do and is just playing with us for fun.

Statistics are great, but they can be misused and abused. The fact you can create a Gaussian distribution of buyers and sellers says nothing about efficiency -- I mean, I don't even know what you mean by "efficiency". Even though buyers and sellers get matched -- they aren't necessarily matched immediately at the prices they want. Perhaps the timing of the matching makes additional money for the MM. I don't know.
  • #1,249
  • May 10, 2019 12:51pm May 10, 2019 12:51pm
Quoting BlackStack
{quote} Liquidity gap is the cause. Price gap is the effect. When the liquidity gap happens between the close of a candle and the open of the next candle then it shows as a price gap. When the liquidity gap is occurring within a candle it is hidden. For what you are calling a liquidity gap is really a hidden gap. Other threads have called this correctly.
Interesting. I'm a rookie -- what do I know? Hidden gap, liquidity gap -- whatever... I've seen and heard the term "liquidity gap" used and since I had not come across the term "hidden gap", then that's what I went with.

I like that you've introduced the word "hidden". When I look at a large spike I don't see a "gap". So, maybe it's more accurate to refer to it as a "hidden" liquidity gap.

A question -- in the case of price gaps -- are there also a bunch of unfilled orders that remain? Will the MM return to fill those orders? That would be interesting...
  • #1,250
  • Edited 1:21pm May 10, 2019 1:02pm | Edited 1:21pm
Quoting robots4me
{quote} Well -- I don't know. Are you saying the MM is wasting it's time? I understand what you mean about matching buyers and sellers. Look it -- manipulation is clearly occurring. It sounds like you're saying they are putting in a lot of sweat for no reason. Other than noticing the manipulation I don't understand market mechanics at all. Since manipulation occurs, then I assume there's a reason and the reason is to make more money than if it wasn't being manipulated. Or, maybe the MM is simply bored and has nothing better to do and is just playing...
@robots4me

have you a reasonably clear definition of what is "MM"?
of the concepts on which MM is based ?
of their relationships between them ?
of the tools used by MM,
of the relationship between the tools and the concepts ?.

I have not found such things, may be it is because I am a very lazy trader.

Compare with the detailed explanations you have written on the Liquidity Gap, their lengths, their density, the informations and the technical questions or precisions you got from various posters on the subject.

I do not know what is MM, I have just heard about MM. I have no educated opinion on MM, but I have opinions about those who talk about MM
  • #1,251
  • May 10, 2019 1:08pm May 10, 2019 1:08pm
Quoting robots4me
{quote} Interesting. I'm a rookie -- what do I know? Hidden gap, liquidity gap -- whatever... I've seen and heard the term "liquidity gap" used and since I had not come across the term "hidden gap", then that's what I went with. I like that you've introduced the word "hidden". When I look at a large spike I don't see a "gap". So, maybe it's more accurate to refer to it as a "hidden" liquidity gap. A question -- in the case of price gaps -- are there also a bunch of unfilled orders that remain? Will the MM return to fill those orders? That would...
Maybe unfilled, maybe filled. There are market orders and limit orders. There are market orders that will get filled at the market price, whatever that gaps to. A limit order will only get filled at the maximum price limit set.
  • #1,252
  • May 10, 2019 1:25pm May 10, 2019 1:25pm
Quoting robots4me
{quote} Well -- I don't know. Are you saying the MM is wasting it's time? I understand what you mean about matching buyers and sellers. Look it -- manipulation is clearly occurring. It sounds like you're saying they are putting in a lot of sweat for no reason. Other than noticing the manipulation I don't understand market mechanics at all. Since manipulation occurs, then I assume there's a reason and the reason is to make more money than if it wasn't being manipulated. Or, maybe the MM is simply bored and has nothing better to do and is just playing...
The Gaussian distribution happens over and over and over. Day after day, for all time periods. If there was MM manipulation wouldn't it be showing up in the distribution pattern of the price and sales relationships?

Efficiency happens when most of the buyers and sellers are agreeing on a fair value. Some will be paying too much, at one tail, and some too little at the other tail.
  • #1,253
  • May 10, 2019 1:34pm May 10, 2019 1:34pm
Quoting parisboy
{quote} @robots4me have you a reasonably clear definition of what is "MM"? of the concepts on which MM is based ? of their relationships between them ? of the tools used, of therelationship between the tools and the concepts ?. I have not found such things, may be it is because I am a very lazy trader. Compare with the detailed explanations you have written on the Liquidity Gap, their lengths, their density, the informations and the technical questions or precisions you got from various on the subject. I do not know what is...
@parisboy -- good questions -- I suspect we're all in the same boat. We all know you have opinions, and we all know what they are since you repeatedly state them in various ways.

I'm not sure that anyone at our level can precisely define who and what the MM is, who the members are, where they live, etc. It's a general term used to acknowledge something bigger is out there -- because prices are manipulated so precisely. And I don't want to get into that here -- it can be a topic for a new thread.

It's not important to define who and what the MM is. The fact you keep returning to this thread means you are intrigued, but because of your prior training your mind resists. It's a dilemma, right? Same for me, as well. Some people can set questions aside and keep moving forward, others can not. You can imagine how paralyzing that mentality would be for a scientist who must think and work without a recipe.
  • #1,254
  • May 10, 2019 1:40pm May 10, 2019 1:40pm
Quoting BlackStack
{quote} The Gaussian distribution happens over and over and over. Day after day, for all time periods. If there was MM manipulation wouldn't it be showing up in the distribution pattern of the price and sales relationships? Efficiency happens when most of the buyers and sellers are agreeing on a fair value. Some will be paying too much, at one tail, and some too little at the other tail.
BlackStack -- don't you see the spikes that appear out of nowhere and touch exactly target level linesdrawn manually or by an indicator?

Quote
If there was MM manipulation wouldn't it be showing up in the distribution pattern of the price and sales relationships?
No -- not necessarily. Because in a sea of 1000's of data points, the occasional spikes get diluted and don't appear in Gaussian statistics. Statistics hide the occasional "one-offs". But in forex, the occasional "one-offs" have a big effect because they take-out accumulated stop losses. Your Gaussian does not take that into account.
  • #1,255
  • May 10, 2019 1:45pm May 10, 2019 1:45pm
Quoting BlackStack
{quote} Maybe unfilled, maybe filled. There are market orders and limit orders. There are market orders that will get filled at the market price, whatever that gaps to. A limit order will only get filled at the maximum price limit set.
Okay -- now you're pushing the envelope (pun intended for @parisboy) of my trading knowledge. I'm a simple BUY, SELL, StopLoss, TakeProfit type of guy.

Perhaps someone else could follow-up on these points.
  • #1,256
  • May 10, 2019 1:53pm May 10, 2019 1:53pm
Quoting BlackStack
{quote} The Gaussian distribution happens over and over and over. Day after day, for all time periods. If there was MM manipulation wouldn't it be showing up in the distribution pattern of the price and sales relationships? Efficiency happens when most of the buyers and sellers are agreeing on a fair value. Some will be paying too much, at one tail, and some too little at the other tail.
Quote
Efficiency happens when most of the buyers and sellers are agreeing on a fair value.
That's the way it works when you sell used cars.

In the case of forex I suspect it is more cut-throat and "fair" is not part of the vocabulary. No offense to any Russians here -- Vladimir Putin runs a very large country, and I don't think his #1 priority is playing "fair". It's all about power, right?

I want things to be fair -- but I also recognize they never have been and probably never will be (and I'm speaking in general). Unfortunately no one asked my preference. When I become king of the world then things will be fair.
  • #1,257
  • Edited 2:21pm May 10, 2019 1:55pm | Edited 2:21pm
@robots4me

a) repetition is a traditional teaching and learning tool , not exclusively but good enough
b) I am not intrigued by "MM" but from a psycho-sociological point of view by the way people behave with and about "MM" world, and particularly astute and intelligent people - it is a fascinating subject
c) as I have already written all this has for me an air of "déja vu" . There are slight differences between the 2 cases, that is also interesting and stimulating to investigate for a better understanding. But the inner logic is exactly the same

In Paris the answer to all precise question was "read the book", in Perth it is more "find yourself" " do your homework"etc otherwise you are labeled as "naysayer" or "lazy trader" needing to be "spoon fed'

You wrote "I'm a simple BUY, SELL, StopLoss, TakeProfit type of guy." - You are are my man Robots4me ! I find you even a little too conservative, a little too traditional.

But do not worry, it is a rookie's thing. You could change in the future . May be it is because of your prior training that your mind resists .

It's a dilemma, right? l. Some people can set questions aside and keep moving forward, others can not. I am sure you can.
  • #1,258
  • May 10, 2019 2:01pm May 10, 2019 2:01pm
Quoting robots4me
{quote} BlackStack -- don't you see the spikes that appear out of nowhere and touch exactly target level linesdrawn manually or by an indicator? {quote} No -- not necessarily. Because in a sea of 1000's of data points, the occasional spikes get diluted and don't appear in Gaussian statistics. Statistics hide the occasional "one-offs". But in forex, the occasional "one-offs" have a big effect because they take-out accumulated stop losses. Your Gaussian does not take that into account.
That would depend on whether or not the price spikes stayed within the value area range or not. A Gaussian distribution will have most of the prices within a value range. If the spike was outside the value area then it would show up.
  • #1,259
  • May 10, 2019 2:14pm May 10, 2019 2:14pm
Quoting BlackStack
{quote} That would depend on whether or not the price spikes stayed within the value area range or not. A Gaussian distribution will have most of the prices within a value range. If the spike was outside the value area then it would show up.
@BlackStack -- my point is this. A spike has a disproportionate affect -- much greater than any other price movement. It grabs buckets of cash on one side or the other of a target level. Other price movements do not grab buckets of cash. Your Gaussian does not reflect this.

Let me put it a different way. Suppose you were to add a "weighting factor" that took into account the net effect that each price movement had. 99% percent of the price movements would have roughly the same "net effect". But with a weighting factor then spikes would be very apparent, since their "net effect" is so much greater. Not all data points are created equal, and weight factors are frequently applied to highlight features that might otherwise go unnoticed.
  • #1,260
  • May 10, 2019 2:14pm May 10, 2019 2:14pm
Quoting robots4me
{quote} {quote} That's the way it works when you sell used cars. In the case of forex I suspect it is more cut-throat and "fair" is not part of the vocabulary. No offense to any Russians here -- Vladimir Putin runs a very large country, and I don't think his #1 priority is playing "fair". It's all about power, right? I want things to be fair -- but I also recognize they never have been and probably never will be (and I'm speaking in general). Unfortunately no one asked my preference. When I become king of the world then things will be fair.
The forex market is an auction market. That is not like buying a used car or running a country.
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