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  • #841
  • May 6, 2019 3:22am May 6, 2019 3:22am
Quoting Nih98
{quote} Hi Bro, Yup Shiba Inu from Japan, the happiest dog on earth. NIH
Sorry to invade this wonderful thread and talk about dogs but had to say that Shiba's are wonderful dogs. I had one while I was living in Japan.

Our friends here in Australia have an Akita which are quite rare. Big dog, but beautifully natured.

Attached Image


I will crawl back into my observer's box.
Empty your mind and let the market guide you
  • #842
  • May 6, 2019 3:34am May 6, 2019 3:34am
Quoting SunnyCoast
{quote} Sorry to invade this wonderful thread and talk about dogs but had to say that Shiba's are wonderful dogs. I had one while I was living in Japan. Our friends here in Australia have an Akita which are quite rare. Big dog, but beautifully natured. {image} I will crawl back into my observer's box.
@SunnyCoast -- now, isn't this more fun and productive than staring at forex charts?
  • #843
  • May 6, 2019 3:41am May 6, 2019 3:41am
Quoting robots4me
{quote} @SunnyCoast -- now, isn't this more fun and productive than staring at forex charts?
posting pictures of dogs is allowed by post 815 !
  • #844
  • May 6, 2019 3:59am May 6, 2019 3:59am
I recently posed 3 questions on @George's thread and received a response (not from @George) -- which I acknowledged. But I'm still itching for answers that don't require even more studying than I'm currently doing. So, I'm re-posting here to learn your thoughts / insights and generate more discussion (and questions) about the MM, if anyone is interested and has some. Also, I'll admit to having an ulterior motive. When someone can articulate an observation in words then I'm always thinking about how that might be coded as an algorithm and incorporated into the MM Detective indicator or a new one. I am also perfectly happy to talk about dogs..

(1) If the MM were to have a choice of TOPS (or BOTTOMS) to take-out or push through -- would there be a preference for targets that have been around longer, or for targets a bit further away from the current Ask/Bid? This might occur in situations where target lines are not deleted. I guess what I'm curious about is whether the MM might rank potential targets in some way. In other words -- are some targets more "juicier" than others. Since we don't know the actual amount of cash accumulated above and below target levels -- this is mostly guessing.

(2) When the MM takes out a target can we assume it's always the most lucrative (profitable) one for them -- i.e. the one that has the most accumulated stops? Or is it more like a chess game where they are thinking many moves ahead? In other words, does the MM only take-out stops as needed to fill today's orders or do they also have long-term needs?

(3) Before opening a new position, do we always wait for the MM to show their hand (re-enter a TMA band)? Currently what I'm doing is I first look for re-entry into the TMA -- that's my primary signal. I may or may not open a trade. I know that @RickM will also trade the price inside the TMA by looking for a "trend line". How are other people trading target levels and the TMA?

Thanks...
  • #845
  • May 6, 2019 4:11am May 6, 2019 4:11am
Quoting parisboy
{quote} posting pictures of dogs is allowed by post 815 !
@parisboy -- spot on. And sometimes even preferable...
  • #846
  • May 6, 2019 4:11am May 6, 2019 4:11am
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  • #847
  • May 6, 2019 4:24am May 6, 2019 4:24am
Quoting robots4me
I recently posed 3 questions on @George's thread and received a response (not from @George) -- which I acknowledged. But I'm still itching for answers that don't require even more studying than I'm currently doing. So, I'm re-posting here to learn your thoughts / insights and generate more discussion (and questions) about the MM, if anyone is interested and has some. Also, I'll admit to having an ulterior motive. When someone can articulate an observation in words then I'm always thinking about how that might be coded as an algorithm and incorporated...
R4Me

I've just seen your post above - uncanny! I think your first question about juicy targets is kind of where my chart is going. The juicy target there is the point where price spiked don to take out the low that started the creation of the Herd zone on the higher TF. So price blasted through the levels to the left because it was intent on taking out that juicy target

What do you think? Then the TMA stuff kicks off to fine tune our entry up from that level....
  • #848
  • May 6, 2019 4:25am May 6, 2019 4:25am
Quoting btrfx1
Nih98, I cannot find the post where she was lounging in your place, sunbaking in the loungeroom I think --would appreciate if you can send me some photos of her. A nice mascot for me to look at while trading---:-) Cheers
Hi Bro, Here (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=12254602#post12254602) but sadly all her pictures is only from beautiful memories when she still with our family. But for sure she will always in our heart forever.

Quoting SunnyCoast
{quote} Sorry to invade this wonderful thread and talk about dogs but had to say that Shiba's are wonderful dogs. I had one while I was living in Japan. Our friends here in Australia have an Akita which are quite rare. Big dog, but beautifully natured. {image} I will crawl back into my observer's box.
We love Akita too.. Bro..

Quoting aaven
{quote} Nih98, Could you please explain your entry criteria. Thanks
Hi Bro, I have many strategies for many market conditions, but generally I use my main tools as main signal, and of course I also use what we discuss here, multi dimensional fractals, in relation with price action with the main focus on single bar fractal on extremes areas in every TF levels (of course with top down priority).

NIH
Dog + Smile = Beautiful Day
  • #849
  • May 6, 2019 4:34am May 6, 2019 4:34am
Quoting TopCover
{image}
@TopCover -- and just so I understand. Your chart shows the spike downward not only took out the M15 herd mentality, but also the H4 herd mentality that had been building over the past 10 days. Is that right?

If so -- then another question. Do you think that was always the plan? Or, could it be the MM was keeping the H4 target in reserve and since the M15 didn't fill its needs for the day then it continued down to collect more?

One of the things I'm trying to wrap my head around is whether the MM's manipulations are driven by short-term needs or whether all these manipulations have already been planned weeks (or, even years) in advance?

I'm wondering whether sometimes these longer time frame accumulations are held in reserve -- in case the current, lower TF grab isn't sufficient to fill the MM's appetite.
  • #850
  • May 6, 2019 4:39am May 6, 2019 4:39am
Quoting Nih98
{quote} Hi Bro, but sadly all her pictures is only from beautiful memories when she still with our family. But for sure she will always in our heart forever. {quote} We love Akita too.. Bro.. {quote} Hi Bro, I have many strategies for many market conditions, but generally I use my main tools as main signal, and of course I also use what we discuss here, multi dimensional fractals, in relation with price action with the main focus on single bar fractal on extremes areas in every TF levels (of course with top down priority). NIH
@Nih98 -- I know the pain. My best buddy died over 30 years ago, and I still dream about him. Our current dog is going on 8 years and I have a pact with her that I go first. I don't want to go through it again.

Anyways, back to forex...
  • #851
  • May 6, 2019 4:43am May 6, 2019 4:43am
Quoting TopCover
{quote} R4Me I've just seen your post above - uncanny! I think your first question about juicy targets is kind of where my chart is going. The juicy target there is the point where price spiked don to take out the low that started the creation of the Herd zone on the higher TF. So price blasted through the levels to the left because it was intent on taking out that juicy target What do you think? Then the TMA stuff kicks off to fine tune our entry up from that level....
@TopCover -- very interesting.

I'm waffling between "juicy targets" versus dipping into a reserve to fill today's needs. If the M15 bucket was sufficient then maybe the MM holds off on the H4 bucket until a later date. I mean, it's always there whenever it needs it -- I think.
  • #852
  • Edited 5:04am May 6, 2019 4:53am | Edited 5:04am
Quoting robots4me
(3) Before opening a new position, do we always wait for the MM to show their hand (re-enter a TMA band)? Currently what I'm doing is I first look for re-entry into the TMA -- that's my primary signal. I may or may not open a trade. I know that @RickM will also trade the price inside the TMA by looking for a "trend line". How are other people trading target levels and the TMA? Thanks...
@robots4me I am glad that on your thread charts and Envelopes are allowed !

as you told re-entry in the Envelope is a good signal

let us summarize how I proceed to earn some money which allows me to stay in the trading business

do you remember this electronic game you had in bars, café etc where you drive a car with the road on the screen. The game was not to loose control , not to have a fatal accident . But sometimes the directional change was so quick and sudden that your car went out of the road and you had to fight to reenter the road.

Let's assume that the Envelope 256 Time Units is "The Road"
when Price Action goes outside the Envelope Up or Down I call this pattern you regularly see" Sortie de Route"

on the Chart you see 3 Sorties de Route noted 1,2,3 and circled in orange

After the fact analysis shows the various places where you could have taken position - red for Shorts, green for Longs

Notice that :

a) sortie de route is a relative concept, not an absolute one. If you DOUBLE the Envelopes parameters you have no more sortie de route
b) as you noted : taking position or not it depends of the synthesis of the global trading situation you make
c) as you see you have false signals. Then it is safe to wait confirmation
d) IMHO a key factor to take into account are the Envelope parameters. All charts look the same on the screen. But all in real trading life depends on the Volatility = Depth of the Envelope

let's assume for the sake of the demonstration that the Volatility = 1 % of the index

My take is that it easier to take position

on the DOW : 1 % of 25000 = 250 points,
than on the DAX 1 % of 12500 points = 125 points
than on the SP500 1 % of 3000 = 30 points

in absolute value your Risk reward is not the same

hope this helps in spite of the fact you cannot reach over 90 % consistency with this primitive methodology of mine !
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  • #853
  • May 6, 2019 4:55am May 6, 2019 4:55am
Quoting SunnyCoast
{quote} Sorry to invade this wonderful thread and talk about dogs but had to say that Shiba's are wonderful dogs. I had one while I was living in Japan. Our friends here in Australia have an Akita which are quite rare. Big dog, but beautifully natured. {image} I will crawl back into my observer's box.
Hi Sunny,

No Anthony, stay here, there is much to learn.
How are you, thank you for posting, I wasn't sure about the Shiba Inu living here due to the double coat (Think thats right) but Nih's dog looks pretty comfortable, and relaxed. I read where they shed a lot of hair--was that your experience with yours?

Trading.
I tried to do something a bit different with my charts, as they are all hand drawn, in all time frames, I observed a page where time was mentioned as a possible element, so I will continue with it until other better traders suggest otherwise.

I used the 15 min chart and plotted my 24 hr window on them, my starting point was Midnight to midnight. Important that I used AEST for my chart PA.

I am studying all that George has posted, and have not had a chance to call him yet, need to do more work with George's material first, also I need to stay within his parameters for posting anything.

I have no conclusive results yet but hope to be able to post a chart soon.

There is a reason for me doing this, but do not want to add more to what has already been introduced here, as there is a mountain of new material being discussed but happy to share it with you, on a one to one basis first.

Basically it came from what George has already mentioned as to what is important to him.

ps Nih, I found the picture I wanted to save for my screen, Thks.

Bi 4 now
Ben
  • #854
  • May 6, 2019 5:03am May 6, 2019 5:03am
Quoting robots4me
{quote} @TopCover -- and just so I understand. Your chart shows the spike downward not only took out the M15 herd mentality, but also the H4 herd mentality that had been building over the past 10 days. Is that right? If so -- then another question. Do you think that was always the plan? Or, could it be the MM was keeping the H4 target in reserve and since the M15 didn't fill its needs for the day then it continued down to collect more? One of the things I'm trying to wrap my head around is whether the MM's manipulations are driven by short-term...
R4Me

Yes my novice view is that the Algorithim is at work constantly and fractally. So yes I believe that in this case at the point where the MM started setting up the H4 Herd validation zone (in Late April), this later spike was anticipated as part of the trap using the "take out" of the launch pad for the zone. Re-reading George's early posts he deals with how the zones are set up - that spike in my chart was the death blow to all of those stop losses parked in the higher TF zone BUT also serves as our target level for reversal in our M15 trade ( and also killing off those stop losses).

So that's a heck of a lot of stop's the MM liquidated with that spike - and NOT just those of piddly M15 traders but the long term dudes also.

I'm sure there are flaws in my thinking but hey it certainly is gripping stuff
  • #855
  • May 6, 2019 5:15am May 6, 2019 5:15am
Quoting parisboy
{quote} @robots4me I am glad that on your thread charts and Envelopes are allowed ! as you told re-entry in the Envelope is a good signal let us summarize how I proceed to earn some money which allows me to stay in the trading business do you remember this electronic game you had in bars, café etc where you drive a car with the road on the screen. The game was not to loose control , not to have a fatal accident . But sometimes the directional change was so aquick and sudden that your car went out of the road and you had to fight to reenter...
Quote
hope this helps in spite of the fact you cannot reach over 90 % consistency with this primitive methodology of mine !

Now, now @parisboy -- I'm not sure but I think I detect a hint of sarcasm. I didn't think sarcasm existed in France.

When you (roughly) equate Envelopes with the TMA that I'm more accustomed to using then it becomes more clear. One difference between your "Sorties de Route" and how I'm using the TMA is that, for now, I only start paying attention when the price Enters the TMA (or Envelope). There may also be good trading opportunities when it Exits -- e.g. when your driver has had too many glasses of that expensive French wine. As @moodybot puts it, the MM shows its hand when the price spikes out of the TMA. In the aftermath it has to re-enter at some point and this is as good a time as any to make a trading decision (my interpretation -- I'm not trying to put words in @moodybot's mouth).

Quote
a) sortie de route is a relative concept, not an absolute one. If you DOUBLE the Envelopes parameters you have no more sortie de route
Yes -- good point. The settings can (and will) make all the difference. In the MM Detective indicator I added increment / decrement buttons to make it easier to adjust the setting of the ATR multiplier and get immediate visual feedback.

To be honest, I don't really get the thing about Volatility. Is that similar to something like the ADR (Average Daily Range)?
  • #856
  • May 6, 2019 5:25am May 6, 2019 5:25am
Quoting robots4me
...One of the things I'm trying to wrap my head around is whether the MM's manipulations are driven by short-term needs or whether all these manipulations have already been planned weeks (or, even years) in advance? .
Main naive thought:
it may be that the big players trade futures.
e.g. the Norwegian Government buy/sell for their pensions fonds dollars, yens etc. and this affects the USDJPY price.
They do monthly and weekly team meetings to analyze the current situation...

As example I would plan for the next week to buy step by step dollars for 100 mil., and sell for 150 mil. Yen.
If a certain profit is achieved then I will continue with other currencies.
  • #857
  • May 6, 2019 5:33am May 6, 2019 5:33am
@robots4me

I am sometimes sarcastic but it is not related to yourself or your thread (at least for now )

As for TMA bands as you know I do not use , but my experience shows that whatever Bands you use, Channel Analysis or Envelope analysis allows you to generate the same conclusions from the same facts

I do not want elaborate now on your thread on the "volatility" because I do not want to hijack your thread.

Let's say to be short that with the help of the Gann Octave / Vibration system you can very quickly define the Volatility / Price Range of any financial entity you trade.

If you look closely at the Chart of the DAX I posted, you can notice on the left corner that the Envelope 256 parameter is 125 meaning Trading View Calulates the Centered Moving Average 256 Time Units (here 5 minutes) then add and substract 125 points to this Centered Moving Average to build the Envelope

You can notice that this Envelope includes most of the Price Action data. the rest being known as "sortie de route " outside the Envelope

To follow potential changes in volatility you just have to DOUBLE or HALVE the parameters ...... with over 90 % consistency
  • #858
  • May 6, 2019 5:36am May 6, 2019 5:36am
Quoting TopCover
{quote} R4Me Yes my novice view is that the Algorithim is at work constantly and fractally. So yes I believe that in this case at the point where the MM started setting up the H4 Herd validation zone (in Late April), this later spike was anticipated as part of the trap using the "take out" of the launch pad for the zone. Re-reading George's early posts he deals with how the zones are set up - that spike in my chart was the death blow to all of those stop losses parked in the higher TF zone BUT also serves as our target level for reversal in our...
Quote
certainly is gripping stuff
Yes -- and also fun to toss ideas around.

Thanks for your thinking on this. If the market is fractal in nature then I would be inclined to say the MM is playing us more like a chess game -- all the moves have been planned out in advance.

At the risk of confusing the terminology -- in my mind I started using the word "buckets of cash" in place of "Herd Validation Zones". If we are going to anthrpomorphisize the MM, then I find it simpler to think of the MM as dropping breadcrumbs (buckets of cash) around for later pick-up.

Also, the reason I tend to favor thinking of the collection process as one where the MM creates a local bucket of cash and, if necessary dips down into reserves, is this is all driven by orders -- economics and commerce? Isn't that correct? And since I'm not convinced the MM knows in advance how many orders it will need to fill tomorrow, then its psychology might be to go around collecting buckets of cash according to its short-term needs and only when those are not filled it will then dip into the reserves. For example -- suppose China buys 100 737 MAX's from Boeing -- you know, as suicide airplanes -- and needs to convert a few trillion Yuan into dollars. The MM wouldn't know about that purchase in advance, would it?

Please excuse my ignorance -- if it comes across as naive that's because I am (in terms of forex)...
  • #859
  • May 6, 2019 5:43am May 6, 2019 5:43am
Quoting parisboy
@robots4me I am sometimes sarcastic but it is not related to yourself or your thread (at least for now ) As for TMA bands as you know I do not use , but my experience shows that whatever Bands you use, Channel Analysis or Envelope analysis allows you to generate the same conclusions from the same facts I do not want elaborate now on your thread on the "volatility" because I do not want to hijack your thread. Let's say to be short that with the help of the Gann Octave / Vibration system you can very quickly define the Volatility / Price Range...
@parisboy -- thanks for the follow-up.
  • #860
  • May 6, 2019 5:51am May 6, 2019 5:51am
Yes interesting points around the fundamentals and would be very much be along the lines of Supply and Demand traders - the big institutions need to get their orders filled in the face of limited supply etc.

I'm not sure... George does not seem to be interested in fundamentals (In my opinion) - all of the information he needs seems to be in the charts themselves and his well-honed understanding of them . My economic brain is also not capable of commenting much on those aspects

I've put up another chart though - again on this aspect of the spike that opens the cash box ( or bucket?)

This would also have been a "double whammy" as a herd zone was also present on the other side of the green zone.
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